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Old 4 Mar 2004, 18:43 (Ref:893783)   #1
Chappelli
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Chappelli should be qualifying in the top 10 on the gridChappelli should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
If You Were A Bookie

If you were a bookie, what odds would you put on:

NZ's betting agency have got Massa @ 45:1 and Fisi @ 35:1 for a top three finish... It got me wondering whether anybody else thinks this is a bet well well worthy of a lazy fiver.

So at what odds would you plave on what?

I also chucked 5 bucks on a Sauber for the win (I'm certainly not a Sauber fan, but with the uncertainty of who's going to last the distance I thought it was worth it @ 90:1)
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Old 4 Mar 2004, 19:46 (Ref:893850)   #2
Don K
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If I were a bookie, I would think that 36:1 would be fair for Massa, and 33:1 for Fisichella.

(6:1 for Michael, 10:1 for Montoya, Raikkonen, Ralf and Coulthard, and 2537:1 for Baumgartner).

But than again, I do not gamble.
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Old 4 Mar 2004, 20:16 (Ref:893875)   #3
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I don't totally understand gambling and the odds, but 10-1 for JPM and Kimi when they got as close to Michael as they did last season, and the way testing has been going (yes, i know it's only testing ) when you have Michael at 6-1 imo would be well worth a bet.

As i'm a jinx, i might bet on Michael

Last edited by Mr V; 4 Mar 2004 at 20:16.
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Old 4 Mar 2004, 20:35 (Ref:893893)   #4
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6:1 for Micheal and 10:1 for those others? to win? to win what? They are good odds. Very good odds. Too good.
William Hill are offering no where near that.
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Old 5 Mar 2004, 09:45 (Ref:894620)   #5
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6:4 for MS to Win
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Old 5 Mar 2004, 22:20 (Ref:895356)   #6
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Kicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridKicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
If anyone finds a real bookie offering me 6-1 for Michael and 10-1 for Raikkonen let me know!

That bookie would be bankrupt very soon.
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Old 5 Mar 2004, 23:00 (Ref:895379)   #7
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I agree. If anyone does find an on-line bookie offering those odds, then can you post a link on here because it seems like easy money to me that, and im not a gambling man.
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Old 6 Mar 2004, 04:32 (Ref:895542)   #8
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NZ's betting agency have got Massa @ 45:1 and Fisi @ 35:1 for a top three finish... It got me wondering whether anybody else thinks this is a bet well well worthy of a lazy fiver.
Nah mate,its silly to bet on F1,simply because you've only got a 1/22 chance of your choice winning.A horse race your usually around 1/15(if theres 15 runners),a greyhound race your down to 1/8 as theres only 8 doggies in a race,but if you bet on say NZ vs South Africa cricket(the first test match)to pick the winner, your down to a 50% chance of getting it right,you either win or lose,theres only 2 choices,not 22 as in an F1 race.
Massa @ 45:1 is only there to take your money,they need some fools to take the longshots to offset the money they are laying on the favourite,the more money goes down on MS,then Massa will probably be at 100/1 at race start

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If anyone finds a real bookie offering me 6-1 for Michael and 10-1 for Raikkonen let me know!That bookie would be bankrupt very soon.
Only if MS or Kimi won,if they lose,that bookie will be very rich.
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Old 6 Mar 2004, 11:16 (Ref:895749)   #9
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Originally posted by AdamAshmore
6:1 for Micheal and 10:1 for those others? to win? to win what? They are good odds. Very good odds. Too good.
William Hill are offering no where near that.
They were meant to be odds to win the race.

I agree with the 6:1 being wrong.

I would expect that Michael would win more than 3 races, so 6:1 can't be correct.


With respect to Kimmi:
- We know that David and Ralf win races each season. So I would expect them to win 1.5 races this year.
- I think that Montoya has grown to the same level by now.
- Raikkonen hasn't really reached them where it comes to winning a race, but he seems to be on their level when it comes to getting points. So for this season, I think that his chances for winning a race are about the same as the chances for Coulthard, Ralf and Montoya.
- Barrichello (in his Ferrari) has a greater chance than either of these four.
- Michael has a greater chance than Barrichello. I think the chance that he wins should be about twice as great as the chance that Kimmi wins.

If I were to give Kimmi a 15% chance for winning this race, I would have to give Coulthard, Ralf and Montoya also (at least) 15%, Michael 30%, and Barrichello at least 20%. Which adds up to 110% ...

With 14% for Kimmi etc and 28% for Michael, that leaves less than 14% for Rubens. Can't be correct.

With 13% for Kimmi etc and 26% for Michael, that leaves 22% for Rubens plus the Renault drivers plus Button... Might just work if we give Rubens 18% and Renault 3%.

12%, 11% and 10% should work out fine, I think.

And 9% for Kimmi etc would probably work if we think Rubens can win 3-4 races. That would give Rubens about 20%, Michael about 40%, leaving about 4% for all other drivers combined.
This would mean that we are expecting 7.2 victories for Michael, 3.6 victories for Rubens, 1.62 victories each for Raikkonen, Coulthard, Montoya and Ralf, and 0.72 victory for the other drivers combined.
And I think a 9% chance is written in english as something like 10:1 (or maybe 1:10?).

In other words, I think that anything between 20:3 and 10:1 for Kimmi winning the race should be considered reasonable.
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Old 6 Mar 2004, 11:48 (Ref:895796)   #10
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Kicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridKicking-back should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Doesn't work like that.
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Old 6 Mar 2004, 12:01 (Ref:895812)   #11
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Originally posted by Kicking-back
Doesn't work like that.
So how *does* it work?

I always assumed that betting work more or less like insurances, and futures, and financial futures etc ...
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Old 6 Mar 2004, 18:14 (Ref:896145)   #12
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JimW should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridJimW should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridJimW should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridJimW should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
I don't see how anyone could organise betting on something where collusion and cheating (sometimes described as team orders) can influence the outcome in the way we have seen (plus suspicions) in F1. I thought that horse racing had some doubtful practices but F1 regularly makes horse racing (and the Jockey Club in the UK) look straight and un-fixed.

Regards

Jim
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