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Old 29 May 2021, 04:23 (Ref:4053715)   #1
Schummy
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Teammates comparison (and other numbers)

Five GPs already done so there is some amount of info to compare drivers in the same team. As "classically" I do, I count who "wins" in qualifying and who wins in the race, in each GP, making a "Total" and "subtotals" for only qualies and for only races.

Yes, this is confuse. It is my style.

Let's go to the table of "points of comparisons:

Code:
        BAH IMO POR SPA MON   TOT GRD RAC  Prb              
HAM-BOT  11  11  01  11  01 = 8-2 3-2 5-0  89%  Advantage HAM(*)
VER-PER  11  01  11  11  11 = 9-1 4-1 5-0  98%  Busted by VER
LEC-SAI  11  11  01  11  10 = 8-2 4-1 4-1  89%  Advantage LEC
RIC-NOR  10  10  00  11  00 = 4-6 3-2 1-4  25%  Equality
ALO-OCO  10  00  00  00  00 = 1-9 1-4 0-5  98%  Busted by OCO
VET-STR  00  00  11  00  11 = 4-6 2-3 2-3  25%  Equality
(*)BOT almost busted by HAM in races
For example: "01" for VER-PER in IMO means Verstappen lost to Perez in Imola in qualification and won against Perez in the race. "9-1" means Verstappen beat Perez 9 out of 10 times, being 4-1 in qualy and 5-0 in races.

The "probability percentage" shows the level of certainty about the dominant driver (so far) being really better, against being apparently better just by random chance. For example, 98% for Ocon vs Alonso means there is only a probability of 2% that 9-1 was produced by chance if the two drivers were performing equally well. So, 9-1 is very "significant". However, the 6-4 score of Norris vs Ricciardo has only a 25%, meaning it is a score easily got just by chance if those two drivers were performing at the same level (like throwing 10 times a coin).

I call "busted" when one driver is "significantly" worse than the other. I.e. when data "proves" he has been worse. Currently, I happen to use "almost busted", "busted" and "utterly busted" for >90%, >95% and >99% of probabilities. I name "Equality" when probability is weaker than 50% and "Advantage" when it is stronger but not yet significant ("busted").

IMO:

-- Alonso is being demolished (there is not another softer word to describe it) by Ocon. F1 is about results and we know that first races establish a pattern difficult to bend (let's remember "my namesake" Schummy against Rosberg). Anyway, maybe, maybe it is due to Alonso being still "rusty."

-- Leclerc has a strong advantage against Sainz; its is as strong as Lewis vs Valtteri. Many people assumes HAM is clearly beating BOT but applauds how well Sainz is doing against Leclerc . Carlos loses 1-4 in both qualies and races (and, yes, the last race was in Carlos' favor due to "random circumstances"). Sainz is a very likable person and a great driver, and still new in Ferrari, but results are results.

It is interesting the comparison of Sainz vs Leclerc with Leclerc vs Vettel in 2019. In the whole season, VET beat LEC just 11-9 (essentially not significant) but beat LEC 4-1 in the first 5 races (like LEC vs SAI), reaching a peak of 6-1 in the seventh race (not still busted, though). Anyway, Sainz is not "busted" yet by Leclerc, in terms of probabilities, so let's see.

-- Vettel has stopped the threat of Stroll busting him, same as Ricciardo versus Norris. I think Stroll is a competent driver but I also think Norris is a harder pattern to be measured against. So, Vettel's reputation is somehow more at risk here.

Enough of this chitchat, in fact it is just data for you to evaluate and reach conclusions!
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