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Old 29 May 2021, 04:23 (Ref:4053715)   #1
Schummy
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Teammates comparison (and other numbers)

Five GPs already done so there is some amount of info to compare drivers in the same team. As "classically" I do, I count who "wins" in qualifying and who wins in the race, in each GP, making a "Total" and "subtotals" for only qualies and for only races.

Yes, this is confuse. It is my style.

Let's go to the table of "points of comparisons:

Code:
        BAH IMO POR SPA MON   TOT GRD RAC  Prb              
HAM-BOT  11  11  01  11  01 = 8-2 3-2 5-0  89%  Advantage HAM(*)
VER-PER  11  01  11  11  11 = 9-1 4-1 5-0  98%  Busted by VER
LEC-SAI  11  11  01  11  10 = 8-2 4-1 4-1  89%  Advantage LEC
RIC-NOR  10  10  00  11  00 = 4-6 3-2 1-4  25%  Equality
ALO-OCO  10  00  00  00  00 = 1-9 1-4 0-5  98%  Busted by OCO
VET-STR  00  00  11  00  11 = 4-6 2-3 2-3  25%  Equality
(*)BOT almost busted by HAM in races
For example: "01" for VER-PER in IMO means Verstappen lost to Perez in Imola in qualification and won against Perez in the race. "9-1" means Verstappen beat Perez 9 out of 10 times, being 4-1 in qualy and 5-0 in races.

The "probability percentage" shows the level of certainty about the dominant driver (so far) being really better, against being apparently better just by random chance. For example, 98% for Ocon vs Alonso means there is only a probability of 2% that 9-1 was produced by chance if the two drivers were performing equally well. So, 9-1 is very "significant". However, the 6-4 score of Norris vs Ricciardo has only a 25%, meaning it is a score easily got just by chance if those two drivers were performing at the same level (like throwing 10 times a coin).

I call "busted" when one driver is "significantly" worse than the other. I.e. when data "proves" he has been worse. Currently, I happen to use "almost busted", "busted" and "utterly busted" for >90%, >95% and >99% of probabilities. I name "Equality" when probability is weaker than 50% and "Advantage" when it is stronger but not yet significant ("busted").

IMO:

-- Alonso is being demolished (there is not another softer word to describe it) by Ocon. F1 is about results and we know that first races establish a pattern difficult to bend (let's remember "my namesake" Schummy against Rosberg). Anyway, maybe, maybe it is due to Alonso being still "rusty."

-- Leclerc has a strong advantage against Sainz; its is as strong as Lewis vs Valtteri. Many people assumes HAM is clearly beating BOT but applauds how well Sainz is doing against Leclerc . Carlos loses 1-4 in both qualies and races (and, yes, the last race was in Carlos' favor due to "random circumstances"). Sainz is a very likable person and a great driver, and still new in Ferrari, but results are results.

It is interesting the comparison of Sainz vs Leclerc with Leclerc vs Vettel in 2019. In the whole season, VET beat LEC just 11-9 (essentially not significant) but beat LEC 4-1 in the first 5 races (like LEC vs SAI), reaching a peak of 6-1 in the seventh race (not still busted, though). Anyway, Sainz is not "busted" yet by Leclerc, in terms of probabilities, so let's see.

-- Vettel has stopped the threat of Stroll busting him, same as Ricciardo versus Norris. I think Stroll is a competent driver but I also think Norris is a harder pattern to be measured against. So, Vettel's reputation is somehow more at risk here.

Enough of this chitchat, in fact it is just data for you to evaluate and reach conclusions!
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Old 30 May 2021, 13:58 (Ref:4053836)   #2
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Thanks for the breakdowns.

I dont know what to say about Alonso. Moreso as i had long ago (and clearly incorrectly) written Ocon off as a never was.

Maybe Ocon really is that good?

vettel and ric just now getting proper miles in. Think next phase of the season will be far more even between them and their teammates.

perez is more difficult imo. Maybe trying a bit to hard and also needing more miles but also clearly willing to play for the team first?

Last edited by chillibowl; 30 May 2021 at 14:03.
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Old 3 Jun 2021, 00:48 (Ref:4054399)   #3
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Perez seems to become more "alive" in Sundays. We know he always has had a good management of races. Anyway, "living" with Max in terms of speed is difficult.

It is ironic that the only "1" he has against MV is in qualy... but it is completely not significant from a statistical POV. I suppose he will get, across the season, better results in races than in qualifications.
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Old 3 Jun 2021, 02:07 (Ref:4054401)   #4
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I think you are right there. It presumably will get closer through the season, albeit more and more statistical certain too!
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Old 3 Jun 2021, 10:33 (Ref:4054420)   #5
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Checo is second to none in terms of tyre management. As you say it's hard to get close to Max on raw speed, but the important thing is Perez is consistent over a whole race distance
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Old 7 Jun 2021, 12:35 (Ref:4055113)   #6
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Update after the GP in the superb Baku's circuit.

........BAH IMO POR SPA MON AZB TOT GRD RAC Prb
HAM-BOT 11 11 01 11 01 10 = 9-3 4-2 5-1 85% Advantage HAM
VER-PER 11 01 11 11 11 10 =10-2 5-1 5-1 96% Busted by VER
LEC-SAI 11 11 01 11 10 11 =10-2 5-1 5-1 96% Busted by LEC
RIC-NOR 10 10 00 11 00 00 = 4-8 3-3 1-5 61% Advantage NOR
ALO-OCO 10 00 00 00 00 11 = 3-9 2-4 1-5 85% Advantage OCO
VET-STR 00 00 11 00 11 11 = 6-6 3-3 3-3 00% Equality

-- Now Sainz is busted by Leclerc. I like Carlos a lot but I don't share the pretty general feeling he is somewhere near Leclerc in performance. If it comes, it will take time.
-- His compatriot, Alonso, de-busted himself from Ocon. Let's see if it remains or not this way (race was random but Saturday was brighter than usual for Fernando).
-- Ironically, the winner of the race, Checo, is still busted. What a solid race and what a stable driver he is.
-- If he had not failed in the last moment, HAM could have busted the depressed Valtteri... It seems is just "when" rather than "if".
-- Those two great drivers in tribulation, RIC and VET, had different fortunes: Ricciardo fell but he is not in immediate danger, Vettel had a genial race and now is perfectly level with Stroll (who is not slouch, anyway).

Next dangers: if Bottas or Alonso gets a double zero in France, they will be in the "Almost busted" status, which is not very honorable.
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Old 7 Jun 2021, 12:44 (Ref:4055116)   #7
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And now, as a gift , probability of WDC title (according to actual data and simulations)



...last now
VER 52% 49%
HAM 39% 37%
PER 1% 5%
NOR 2% 4%
LEC 1% 2%
BOT 1% 1%
SAI 1% 1%

Basically it continues as it was, just a (not so) little jump for Perez, and also Norris.

Finally, the evolution of those probabilities across the six races (graph). It shows two men fighting and the rest are crawling there in the mud of low probabilities.
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F1_2021_ProbTit06.GIF  
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