2021

[ascarracinguk]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

You are right. However it still doesn't mean that Hamilton's bargaining position has not been seriously hurt by Russell's performance. It wasn't just "impressive". It was massively impressive for reasons already extensively discussed.

Clearly Mercedes wants Hamilton back. Hamilton and Russell are not equivalent all things being equal. I do suspect that the math Mercedes is working is...

Russell < Hamilton + X - 1 cash.
Russel = Hamilton + X cash
Russel > Hamilton + X + 1 cash

While I expect the negotiations have more factors than just "cash". But I suspect that Hamilton is asking for X + 1 territory and they haven't been able to negotiate him into the X - 1 territory.

Richard

Cant disagree with anything you've said.

Add into this that they need to look to the future past Hamilton.

Its clearly either a complex situation, or its a relatively simple situation and all the BS in the media isnt true....which tbh i wouldnt read into given the toilet paper its printed on.

Win win for the Brits though, they get a british driver either way....but id be shocked if it wasnt Lewis in the car, that would be lose lose for both parties involved

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

One thing I have heard/read in a few places now is that the cost of Hamilton's contract was a bit of a sticking point for the Daimler board, however the restructuring of ownership has meant that he will now 'technically' be an INEOS employee and not directly paid by the team.
How true this is I am not sure - and the only real evidence so far is that the latest round of INEOS marketing material and commercials places Hamilton front and centre (every other sport gets a fleeting image of participants).

I guess if that is the case, Hamilton's seat is linked to sponsorship rather than team requirements. Much like Stroll Jr will follow the Stroll Sr money, Hamilton may now be following INEOS money.

With the qualifier that this is all speculation...

IMHO, its more likely that the total compensation package (beyond external deals that Hamilton can work out) is likely to have money and other things kicked in via multiple parties. So Mercedes will compensate him in various ways and maybe INEOS as well. And who knows how INEOS may structure that (contracted employee?). But in the end, I don't see any scenario in which he is NOT somehow "employed" by the Mercedes F1 team. At a minimum there may be something in the sporting regulations that would require that. Note... that doesn't mean he must be compensated by the team. Just like "pay to race" drivers.

Richard

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

Sky Sports F1 have posted this calendar on their Facebook page, with Round 3 TBC.


https://www.facebook.com/skysportsf1...6771400749128/

To expand further whether the increase in speculation has come about due to the news about calendar changes above or whether it is simply down to increase in infections around the globe, there is much talk about further races being cancelled or postponed, certainly in the first half of the year.

Monaco, Baku and Montreal could be vulnerable due to local covid restrictions affecting time and manpower needed to ready the venues for their scheduled dates.

Also, the Latin American rounds may also be at great risk due to the huge increase in the spread lately.

The question now must be, will it be harder to put on 17 races this year than it was last, let alone 23?

There is Mugello, Instanbul Park and Nurburgring ready to step in again I am sure but not other Grade 1 venues in the APAC or Americas.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by chunterer

To expand further whether the increase in speculation has come about due to the news about calendar changes above or whether it is simply down to increase in infections around the globe, there is much talk about further races being cancelled or postponed, certainly in the first half of the year.

Monaco, Baku and Montreal could be vulnerable due to local covid restrictions affecting time and manpower needed to ready the venues for their scheduled dates.

Also, the Latin American rounds may also be at great risk due to the huge increase in the spread lately.

The question now must be, will it be harder to put on 17 races this year than it was last, let alone 23?

There is Mugello, Instanbul Park and Nurburgring ready to step in again I am sure but not other Grade 1 venues in the APAC or Americas.

The Indy GP circuit is Grade 1, though whether F1 would want to race there again is another matter.

This is the FIA's list of licensed circuits.

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

The Indy GP circuit is Grade 1, though whether F1 would want to race there again is another matter.

This is the FIA's list of licensed circuits.

Yes, I was looking at said list last night, it appears there are limited venues ready to go that have not yet been called upon.

There are some interesting Grade 2 venues in regions that could work, that might only need minor upgrades.

[seanyb505]

Maybe I'm showing how poor I truly am, but it does seem odd to me to be getting held up over money at this point in their relationship. I'm not saying it's wrong simply because I don't know or get the specifics, just that it makes it that much more foreign to me. Clearly Mercedes is the fastest car, clearly Hamilton is capable of winning in it. If Mercedes wants to pay him X and Hamilton wants X+10 that might make sense to me if we were talking X being in the low 6 figure range. But once you get into the tens of millions with someone who has been making 10s of millions for several years, are they really getting hung up over 10 million? You've exceeded the economic value needed for 99.99999% of things in the world, why keep accumulating? Again, this is just me being poor and not understanding the super wealthy.

Seems it should go like this: "Bad news Lewis, Mercedes corporate is pushing for a reduced budget for our program so we're keeping budgets flat. We all know Mercedes will get the constructors again, and you want that 8th WDC, right? Well it's not happening unless you're in our car. Get. In. There. Lewis."

Again, filthy poor speaking.

[chillibowl]

What you says rings true but for me it goes the other way.

After spending several billions on their f1 programme, why is Merc getting hung up over 20-30 million over a couple of years for a driver they clearly must believe is the greatest in the sport right now?

I typically side with labour!

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

What you says rings true but for me it goes the other way.

After spending several billions on their f1 programme, why is Merc getting hung up over 20-30 million over a couple of years for a driver they clearly must believe is the greatest in the sport right now?

I typically side with labour!

Maybe it stems from how the team is now owned? Daimler, Mercedes' parent company, has reduced its shareholding from 60%, with Wolff increasing his to 30%, creating three equal partners with Ineos. Daimler no longer want to foot the bill.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by seanyb505

Maybe I'm showing how poor I truly am, but it does seem odd to me to be getting held up over money at this point in their relationship.

It's really hard to say because all we can do is speculate. We generally have only been focusing on the money side (and that may be a sticking point). But the many rumors include things that range from free AMG One car, slice of Mercedes team earnings to future role in the team in a non-token way.

Even on the money side, while we think they are haggling over a few tens of millions. That can still be make/break points in negotiations. Lastly, I think that teams are looking like the overall pie is not getting bigger and bigger each year. The sport continues to struggle to maintain viewership and relevancy. Overlay that in a world in which we can see a global pandemic moving into it's second year.

Richard

[chillibowl]

And lets also add big personalities used to winning and getting their own way.

of couse we are all just speculating but from what has been 'reported' is LH asking for anything outside the norm for a multiple and reigning champ?

Might even be lower then what we have seen in the past?

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

And lets also add big personalities used to winning and getting their own way.

For sure!

Originally Posted by chillibowl

of couse we are all just speculating but from what has been 'reported' is LH asking for anything outside the norm for a multiple and reigning champ?

Might even be lower then what we have seen in the past?

The two rumors that jumped out at me as being new (and maybe they are not) is

(1) Asking for a percentage (or significant percentage) of the teams cash winnings. But then maybe that is not unusual. Such as bonuses for winning championships. Maybe it's the size of the slice of the pie that is the problem?

(2) Asking for future involvement in the team in a unique way. How do you define that? And if you are running a business. If you "hire" someone and they ask for that type of freedom. That is a serious topic. Especially if maybe you don't want to say "yes". What if Lewis is contractually given some type of platform inside the team (or Mercedes) and in the end they don't like where he goes with it? No doubt whoever is handling the negotiation on Lewis' side should include clauses such as... If you push me out early, I get X compensation. Basically it is putting a dollar value on a non-monetary item that Lewis is asking for. And to do that correctly, you need that value to be large enough that it is painful to break that agreement. Otherwise, they could promise you the world but then just say no once the contract is signed and pay you to go a way.

This is fun to speculate. Maybe Lewis should sign a contract so we can have something else to discuss.

Richard

[chillibowl]

Haha...it is the off season.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

This is fun to speculate. Maybe Lewis should sign a contract so we can have something else to discuss.

They should wait until the last minute to wind everyone up.

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by Adam43

They should wait until the last minute to wind everyone up.

Yes but then it's just awkward when Giedo van der Garde rocks up in Bahrain insisting he has a Mercedes contract too.

[S griffin]

I can’t help, but think back to Senna in 93, when it was uncertain if he was going to race for McLaren and ended up on a race by race deal. Circumstances are different with Hamilton of course, but this situation does remind me of Senna in 93

[Casper]

Originally Posted by S griffin

I think George Russell’s performance in the Merc has meant Lewis has lost that bargaining chip he had with Merc. Why pay him that much when they’ve got someone who can do just as good a job on less money?

Your are joking.....seriously? You truly believe that one drive has changed the whole value perspective of the world on the Hamilton/Mercedes/F1 brand. That sounds like when Kubica was looking to come back and everyone reckoned he was going to be a dominant force again. The Russell/Hamilton thing has exactly the same taste, people going nuts for a lot of stuff with absolutely no basis at all.

[Casper]

It is entirely possible that Hamilton/Toto/Mercedes/INEOS put the contract to one side to be dealt with after INEOS was part of the team ownership structure and they are now dealing with it. In fact I would be surprised if they wanted to be dealing with both issues at once. I am amazed at some of the stuff written here and also other places but I guess that is obvious.

And it is the off season.

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by Casper

Your are joking.....seriously? You truly believe that one drive has changed the whole value perspective of the world on the Hamilton/Mercedes/F1 brand. That sounds like when Kubica was looking to come back and everyone reckoned he was going to be a dominant force again. The Russell/Hamilton thing has exactly the same taste, people going nuts for a lot of stuff with absolutely no basis at all.

I agree with the majority of the post, but I'm not sure anyone had really high hopes for an essentially one-armed Kubica in a Williams.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by Casper

It is entirely possible that Hamilton/Toto/Mercedes/INEOS put the contract to one side to be dealt with after INEOS was part of the team ownership structure and they are now dealing with it. In fact I would be surprised if they wanted to be dealing with both issues at once. I am amazed at some of the stuff written here and also other places but I guess that is obvious.

And it is the off season.

I do think you are right in that Lewis (or all involved) may have wanted to wait until the ownership restructuring was complete first (or not). But I also think that is generally old news. And I am amazed at the amount of hoops people will jump through to insist that his current lack of a contract is not odd.

Richard

[Casper]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

I do think you are right in that Lewis (or all involved) may have wanted to wait until the ownership restructuring was complete first (or not). But I also think that is generally old news. And I am amazed at the amount of hoops people will jump through to insist that his current lack of a contract is not odd.

Richard

It is only odd to those who want it to appear so and invent every story under the sun to justify some sort of conspiracy against the fans of F1. People used to question Webber's insistance of one year contracts and him not using an agent because it "was odd". In the circumstances I don't think it is anything out of the ordinary but I understand that is not a view that those who like speculation, myth and stories would subscribe to. It also does not make good reading in fora.

[john ruston]

Keeps F1 on front page’s and that could be the game. Big Jim has stated the bloke is worth the dosh and it’s nothing compared with his costs with Ainsley America Cup job.
Now that needs a major push as not going to well but has the greatest race sailor . Definitely GOAT!

[Moneyseeker]

I wonder how long the term will be that LH signs up for, do we think he will make it 8 WDC's (presuming he wins 2021 title) and then call it a day - regs changes coming up in 2022 often throw a curved ball?

On paper both Ferrari and RBR will now have two quick cars consistently in the mix this year, which might upset the Mercedes applecart on how they manage the races. I think Bottas may spend as much time looking over his shoulder as looking forward, with the likely threat of GR should LH sign a long term deal.

[chunterer]

I can't help but feel we are repeating ourselves over and over about Hamilton 'will he, won't he' stuff?

There are other aspects to discuss too guys! 👍🏻

[billy bleach]

Brazil has a new Covid strain. Can’t help thinking that 2021 will end up Europe based with Don’t care Russia and Money talks Middle East supporting again ...

[steve_r]

Yeah, I reckon things will change. I also reckon that the teams need to get their act together properly re their 3rd / reserve drivers. Both Norris and LeClerc have come down with Covid in the last few days. Perhaps the vaccinations will be in place by the time the season starts though.