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Old 23 Jul 2021, 22:11 (Ref:4062920)   #1
PascaLM
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The 2021 Annual Le Mans Prediction Thread

Here we go for the Ten-Tenths predictions contest of the 24 Hours of Le Mans 2021.

Past winners:
2008 - cptkablamo
2009 - PascaLM
2010 - isynge
2011 - Joe Taylor
2012 - Duff_44
2014 - Truckosaurus
2015 - TRspitfirefan
2016 - vincegail
2017 - Babapapa
2018 - bentley03 and joeb
2019 - nasdriv87
2020 - Adam43*

New this year :
No prediction about LMP2 or GTE due to a lack of diversity and novelty (only C8.R).
I have slightly BoPed the calculations (yes, a BoP). There is less difference between the maximum numbers of points you can gain in each item : 100 for the pole, 80 for the laps, 120 for the podium. The points distribution is larger. If you are far from the pole or the laps, you get more points than in previous years. 100 points for the exact pole and linearly down to 0 within a delta of 4 seconds. 80 points for the exact laps number down to 0 within a delta of 40 laps (deltas in absolute value).
And errr, and, and errr.... the highest speed during the race in mph or kph as you want. 50 points max.

So you are cordially invited to record your answers to the following :

1. LMH Hyperpole – time only – to nearest thousandth
e.g.
3:41.442
If the track is declared wet during this entire LMH Hyperpole session, we will consider the best lap of all other qualification sessions.

2. Highest speed in the Hunaudières, restaurant, during the race, to nearest tenth
e.g. 251.8 mph
A radar is usually posted there. The speed will be the WEC's official result. We consider 1 mph = 1.609 kph.

3. Overall winner, second and third – car #'s and laps completed by the winner only
e.g.
1. Oreca #32 – 312 laps
2. Oreca #26
3. Toyota #7

Scoring :
pole time :
100 - (25 x |pole-prediction|), i.e if you are one second and 908 thousands from the pole, you get 52.3 points.
0 point if |pole-prediction|> 4 seconds

Highest speed :
50 - (2.5 x |speed_kph - prediction|)
0 point if |speed-prediction| > 20 km/h (12.43 mph). You can give your prediction in mph or kph. All speed predictions will be convert in kph for calculation.

Podium : you can have points if you choose a car of the final podium in an other position
 predicted 1stpredicted 2ndpredicted 3rd
winner 60 points 30 points 15 points
2nd 20 points 40 points 20 points
3rd 5 pts 10 points 20 points

Winner's laps
80 - (2 x |laps-prediction|) and 0 point if |laps-prediction|>40 laps

You can criticize this points system or give some suggestions but please after this year results are published.

Please respect some rules :

1. No surplus comments, no funnies, no additions – just your predictions. We will remove anything else that you add !

2. No amendments are permitted unless you can satisfy us that you made a genuine mistake or if one of the cars included in your prediction is withdrawn before race start.

3. Any queries about the competition to PascaLM or Aysedasi by PM please.

4. The competition will close at 9 pm (UK time) on Tuesday 17th August and the thread will be closed too.

5. Let's thank again Adam43 for having lead a simple and perfect competition last year.

N.B. This is just a bit of fun which we do each year and it is not intended to replace or supplant any other regular predictions competition.

Last edited by PascaLM; 24 Jul 2021 at 00:00. Reason: * not a proper competition and the result is shrouded in controversy ;) - controversy ? Which controversy ? :-o
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Old 23 Jul 2021, 22:32 (Ref:4062924)   #2
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Example

3:43.935

205.2 mph

Oreca #82 - 365 laps
Oreca #38
Toyota #7

Last edited by PascaLM; 23 Jul 2021 at 23:19.
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 12:34 (Ref:4067000)   #3
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GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!GT6 is going for a new world record!
ok here goes

Pole time, 3.21,000

Highest speed on Mulsanne 207 mph

Winner toyota no 7 391 laps
2nd Glickenhaus 709
3rd Jota 38
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 13:02 (Ref:4067006)   #4
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1. LMH Hyperpole – 3:23.244


2. Highest speed in the Hunaudières - 209.40 mph


3. Overall winner, second and third –

1. Toyota #7 – 384 laps
2. Aurus #26
3. Glickenhaus #708
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 13:17 (Ref:4067011)   #5
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eps should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
1. LMH Hyperpole – 3:26.899


2. Highest speed on the Hunaudières - 210.60 mph


3. Overall winner, second and third –

1. Toyota #7 – 390 laps
2. Toyota #8
3. United Autosports #22
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 13:31 (Ref:4067017)   #6
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3:25.147


207.295 mph


Toyota #7 - 372 laps
Alpine #36
Oreca #22

Last edited by joeb; 16 Aug 2021 at 13:48.
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 13:47 (Ref:4067019)   #7
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3:27.200

333.6 km/h

Toyota #8 387
"Alpine" #36
Oreca-Gibson #22
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 16:09 (Ref:4067039)   #8
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TF110 is going for a new world record!TF110 is going for a new world record!TF110 is going for a new world record!TF110 is going for a new world record!TF110 is going for a new world record!TF110 is going for a new world record!TF110 is going for a new world record!
3:25.6

346.8kmh

1. Toyota #7 - 377 laps
2. Toyota #8
3. Alpine #36

Last edited by PascaLM; 16 Aug 2021 at 23:06.
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 16:56 (Ref:4067052)   #9
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WyldStallion should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridWyldStallion should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridWyldStallion should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
Overall: LMP2 class winner
GTE : #51 AF Corse Ferrari (not betting against Pier Guidi right now)


Ayse edit - This needs to be removed or edited as it does not follow the rules.
Pascal edit - This will be ignored

Last edited by PascaLM; 16 Aug 2021 at 20:43.
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 17:07 (Ref:4067056)   #10
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canaglia should be qualifying in the top 10 on the gridcanaglia should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
3:26.5

340 kmh

1. alpine #36 370 laps
2. united autosport #22
3. toyota #7
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 17:47 (Ref:4067066)   #11
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Hawkwood should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridHawkwood should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
1.
3:24.444

2.
212.000mph

3.
1. Alpine #36 – 366 laps
2. Glickenhaus #708
3. Aurus #26
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 20:09 (Ref:4067086)   #12
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gert is going for a new lap record!gert is going for a new lap record!gert is going for a new lap record!gert is going for a new lap record!gert is going for a new lap record!gert is going for a new lap record!
3:27.666

334.7 km/h

Alpine #36 -- 373 laps
Oreca-Gibson #41
Aurus-Gibson #26
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 21:03 (Ref:4067093)   #13
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whitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
3.27.155

337.2 km/u

1 #7 - 371 laps
2 #708
3 #8

Last edited by PascaLM; 17 Aug 2021 at 05:41.
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Old 16 Aug 2021, 21:44 (Ref:4067098)   #14
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3:24.663

208.7 mph

Toyota #7 - 369 laps
Toyota #8
Alpine #36

Last edited by Adam43; 17 Aug 2021 at 00:15. Reason: typo
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Old 17 Aug 2021, 05:28 (Ref:4067129)   #15
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whitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridwhitemr2 should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Quote:
Originally Posted by whitemr2 View Post
3.27.155

337.2 km/u

1 #7
2 #708
3 #8
Total laps added 371
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