Predictions competition(s) for Le Mans: Commentary

[Bentley03]

Originally Posted by The Badger

Almost 6 secs quicker than last year ..... now that might shock Pug , just a little mate !!!

Well, let's see.......Wednesday qualifying was a wash out last year so Thursday was clearly a day to work on race set up. Audi qualified on race rubber, failed to find a clear (traffic-free) lap and with the boost allegedly turned down. They knew they had the measure of the Pesca's so did just enough. Now, Nishy on a mission with qualifying rubber and full boost would have taken what, 2-3 seconds off that time? The remodelled Tertre Rouge I estimate will reduce laptimes by another second. A further 12 months of development for the R10's and a new diesel adversary who I believe will be aiming to occupy at least one place on the front row of the grid, and who knows?

It's unlikely, I agree, but in perfect qualifying conditions, perhaps not beyond the realms of possibility.........?

I'm waiting for driver line-ups to be announced before I put in my predictions, but my pole prediction car will not be wearing the numbers 1, 2 or 3.

[Aysedasi]

Hmmm. Useful musiung there. Who am I to argue. (Still think that's a bit quick though ).

It would be nice to think there will be a really serious shoot-out for pole between Audi and Peugeot. Surely Peugeot would give M. Bibendum's right arm to put one over Audi in qualifying?

[Aysedasi]

dj choc ice - you have the #1 Audi finishing in first and second places - I know they're good, but not that good!

[bernard b]

the well known copy/paste syndrome...

[paul-collins]

Originally Posted by canam

Canam

Peugeot 908 #7
3:25.115
Audi Sport NA #1
293 laps
Audi Sport NA #2
Peugeot 908 #8

canam is suggesting we have rain, I note.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by Bentley03

It's equally strange for us not having you as a mod!

It is bad and wrong.

[neiltbag]

Originally Posted by paul-collins

canam is suggesting we have rain, I note.

I thought there was ban on anyone even mentioning that topic?

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by neiltbag

I thought there was ban on anyone even mentioning that topic?

I'm not a stick-wielder any more otherwise it would have been done!!

[canam]

yes, I suffered from a fat-finger problem. I am looking for a race winning 393 number of laps...but I guess everyone probably knew that already.

I don't know how to correct it (if I can). I had to re-edit it three times when I put in my numbers originally!!.

Don't ask me to be a copy typist.

[Aysedasi]

I'm sure one of the mods will do the honours for you.....

[canam]

thanks.

[Bentley03]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

I'm sure one of the mods will do the honours for you.....

Done!

We just need dj to read this thread now and TELL US HOW TO CORRECT YOUR ENTRY!

[Aysedasi]

Well, I think everyone is being very boring..... Far to many Audi mentions for my liking.......

[Aysedasi]

I see SebringMG is masquerading as The Badger now......


Another cut and paste victim, methinks......

[canam]

I would be interested in getting readings of what people think will be the gap between the winning diesel and the highest placed petrol-engined car. I would put it at 17 laps. Are there any bookies making a spread?

[SebringMG]

I think the gap will largely depend upon how long the peugeots last and keep ressing the Audis!! Once the pug challenge dies the audis will back right off.

Reckon on 7 laps!!

[Prodriveman]

Any GT1 predictions? I dont think the vettes can hold on to another victory if all the competition survives the race....it seems like their last few have been the result of the attrition rate from others....or am i alone on this one? :-/

[Bentley03]

Originally Posted by Prodriveman

Any GT1 predictions? I dont think the vettes can hold on to another victory if all the competition survives the race....it seems like their last few have been the result of the attrition rate from others....or am i alone on this one? :-/

Welcome to 10 Tenths, Prodriveman!

Well, personally speaking I'll be rooting for an Oreca win, but my gut feeling is that it'll be another Corvette victory. I assume you'll be cheering on the Aston Martin's yourself........

[neiltbag]

You guys are very "doom and gloom" about an Audi whitewash. Last year's winning margin was 4 laps, and if they had this year's fuel tank size it would have been 1.2 laps. Yes, there has been additional development, but 17 laps? Come on... Throw in Peugeot pushing hard early, and I think Audi won't have it quite so easy.

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by neiltbag

You guys are very "doom and gloom" about an Audi whitewash. Last year's winning margin was 4 laps, and if they had this year's fuel tank size it would have been 1.2 laps.

A loss of over 10 minutes for extra pits stops? Surely not?

[Aysedasi]

For me, I'd like to see two of the Audi's expire in a vast cloud of smoke and steam in the first 5 laps. And the other could be delayed for 3-4 laps. Now that would make things a bit more interesting......

(Actually, I'm just completely mesmerised by Adam's new avatar..... )

[paul-collins]

I'm amazed that so many are eager to put their numbers in, so soon. I know I'm going to wait until after the test day to see if anything is given away, first.

Some data to ponder, though:

1993: 375 laps = 5100.000 km for the Peugeot 905
1999: 366 laps = 4982.974 km (BMW)
2000: 368 laps = 5007.988 km
2001: rain
2002: 375 laps = 5118.750 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record - FSI introduction
2003: 377 laps = 5146.050 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record for Bentley - top Audi did 372 laps, so a bit of a slip
2004: 379 laps = 5173.350 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record
2005: 369 laps = 5036.850 km
2006: 380 laps = 5187.000 km <-- new "post-Mulsanne chicane" record, first time out for the R10

for reference:

1988: 394 laps = 5332.970 km ("post-Porsche curves" record) <= 391 laps of current configuration
1971: 396 laps = 5335.313 km (overall record) <= 391 laps

So, Peugeot has a few targets to aim for, as do Audi. First, Peugeot's own record of 5100 km, which translates into 374 laps in today's current configuration. Audi already has surpassed that. Second, the overall post-chicane record, which this year will require 381 laps. Again, that's to claim the mark currently held by Audi. And, third, the overall distance record, which would require 391 laps... (edit: due to change in circuit length to 13.629 km, it's actually 392)

Can Audi up their pace (or Peugeot set theirs) to get 11 (12) more laps than last year? That would require, assuming 45 minutes in the pits, a race pace of 3:34 (3:33.5). Doable over 24 hours?

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by paul-collins

Can Audi up their pace (or Peugeot set theirs) to get 11 more laps than last year? That would require, assuming 45 minutes in the pits, a race pace of 3:34. Doable over 24 hours?

Some interesting musing there Paul.

My short answer is I doubt it.

In fact, I doubt it very much - unless they really have to. In which case it needs Peugeot to have the speed and reliability to race them hard all the way. Man, I'd love to see it, but I won't be holding my breath.....

[canam]

I think that the race pace of the diesel class will be faster than the qualifying pace of petrol class. The writing is already on the wall with what we have seen this year with the Pug. Pescarolo is right. I wonder how many other team owners have supported him?

[paul-collins]

Yes, I think it's a real stretch to get that kind of pace over 24 hours - but, until Audi came along, I'd have thought it was a stretch to spend less than 1h in the pits. (Bentley, IIRC, was under 36 minutes with their Audi-trained crew in 2003. And while the cars were not interchangeable, the expertise was.)