[Driver] 2019 F1 Silly Season

[wnut]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Personally, I'm slightly bemused by those who seem determined to talk Leclerc down. I think he's going to be very good indeed. The one thing we've seen for a long time now is that Kimi just doesn't have the potential to win races. The one thing that will hold Leclerc back is likely to be the team itself if their money remains firmly on Vettel, who at times has looked pretty fragile to me.

Kimi does have the potential to win races, he has to my way of thinking given Vettel three wins over the past two years, races which would otherwise be his. Monza this year was also lost by Ferrari, and not Kimi.

The next point is that Leclerc (I like him too) looks very good in the mid/back-field of what is a really two tiered field, and he is going very well against his team mate. It is a massive logic jump to think that this will translate into race wins or indeed a Kimi level competence at the sharp end of the grid.

Ferrari are taking a big risk backing Leclerc at this stage of his career, hopefully it comes off.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Personally, I'm slightly bemused by those who seem determined to talk Leclerc down. I think he's going to be very good indeed. The one thing we've seen for a long time now is that Kimi just doesn't have the potential to win races. The one thing that will hold Leclerc back is likely to be the team itself if their money remains firmly on Vettel, who at times has looked pretty fragile to me.

Nothing to with talking LeClerc down. As it is I don't talk driver's down, I've been following F1 for far too long, for all that nonsense.

I asked the question firstly because apart from some test drives in 2016 and '17, this year is his first full season in F1 and next year he will be thrust into the limelight, driving with historically the most prestigious team and with that will come a lot of pressure.

I don't think Kimi lacks the potential to win races, I think it's more to do with Ferrari putting the emphasis on Vettel, as like Hamilton he is a four time champion and they are both going for that 5th win. Therefore, Kimi is playing a similar role to the one Bottas is at Mercedes.

So secondly I think LeClerc could initially, find himself in a similar position to Kimi, as he finds his feet at Ferrari. Then there is the question of how Vettel will react, as LeClerc is clearly the young pretender.

[V8 Fireworks]

Originally Posted by 52Paddy

Asking a relatively inexperienced driver (Le Clerc) to outscore a four times WDC who is still a force to be reckoned with on any given race weekend is absolute nonsense.

We will see.

It's hard to say if Vettel is a force to be reckoned or underperforming in a Ferrari that should be dominant, as we don't have Hamilton, Alonso or even Ricciardo (who himself outscored Vettel, 3 wins to zero) driving the other Ferrari to compare.

2007 & 2008 showed that Raikkonen and Massa are about at the same level, solid upper-midfield talents, which was confirmed when both drivers were a solid step behind Alonso when paired with the Spaniard.

Leclerc seems quite good, and would be good a future number 1 for Ferrari... It seems very plausible to me that Vettel would be shown the door it he turns out he can't outperform a youngster -- it would be the perfect timing for Ferrari to sign the superstar Verstappen in fact!

[Aysedasi]

Well, it's a good debate anyway!

I'd be happy to have a sneaky fiver on Leclerc doing rather well......

[steve_r]

Originally Posted by wnut

Ferrari are taking a big risk backing Leclerc at this stage of his career, hopefully it comes off.

I think this is not a risk at all. Worst case scenario is that Ferrari have replaced a driver who is no longer good enough to regularly take points off Hamilton with a driver who is also not good enough. What have they lost?

Worst case scenario is that they fish down the back of the couch for some cash, throw it at Alfa Romeo and get Raikonnen back in as their number 2 again.

I think LeClerc will be fine. He has impressed me so far.

[S griffin]

I agree, they have more to gain doing this than with keeping Raikkonen

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Well, it's a good debate anyway!

I'd be happy to have a sneaky fiver on Leclerc doing rather well......

I have already had a sneaky fiver with a mate based on Leclerc not winning a race in Ferrari year 1.

I think he will be good, but a straight out of the box winner, I am not so sure.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by E.B

I have already had a sneaky fiver with a mate based on Leclerc not winning a race in Ferrari year 1.

I think he will be good, but a straight out of the box winner, I am not so sure.

I'd be tempted to take that bet......

[E.B]

20+ races seems like an awful lot all of a sudden. Just one of them where everyone stuffs up /breaks down bar Leclerc is all it needs....
At least (my bet) was only for 5 Aussie 'Pesos', worth little in the real world, as my month long current Euro trip is showing me.

[F1Pete]

I remember reading somewhere that it was Marchionne’s goal to put a huge focus on Alfa Romeo because it was a passion for him to market the brand extensively in the future. So, I believe he wanted Kimi in the Sauber deal while they were looking at Lerclerc for their long range plan.

So far that has paid off. Kimi ‘s entrance to Sauber has already paid dividends and has had a positive impact for the sponsors.

I am sure this was no surprise to Kimi and is a win win for everyone. Kimi still gets to race, he will get paid very well, Ferrari will develop their new driver.

When I say win win for everyone I mean Kimi will win some races too next year.


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[52Paddy]

Originally Posted by V8 Fireworks

We will see.

It's hard to say if Vettel is a force to be reckoned or underperforming in a Ferrari that should be dominant, as we don't have Hamilton, Alonso or even Ricciardo (who himself outscored Vettel, 3 wins to zero) driving the other Ferrari to compare.

I don't think it's hard to see what's going on to be honest. In my view, the Mercedes is a superior car - maybe just slightly - but it's coupled with a Lewis Hamilton who has been riding the crest of a wave with regards to his form in recent years. That's obvious. I do think Vettel's drawback is his lack of cognitive strength when things go pear-shaped. In fact, Hamilton has showed this same fault in earlier years with McLaren and during 2016 when paired with Rosberg. Vettel no longer has the bullet-proof Red Bull to put it up to Hamilton's Silver Arrows and has made a few mistakes this year based on the pressure of his position but he's still the only other driver in contention for the championship and we can't just wilfully blind ourselves to this fact.

Originally Posted by V8 Fireworks

2007 & 2008 showed that Raikkonen and Massa are about at the same level, solid upper-midfield talents, which was confirmed when both drivers were a solid step behind Alonso when paired with the Spaniard.

I don't understand your logic here at all. Raikkonen was WDC in 2007 with Massa trailing the top 3 as best of the rest. In 2008 Alonso was beaten by both Raikkonen and Massa to the other top 3 positions. How does this confirm anything with regards to Raikkonen and Massa? They were both very close years in terms of the championship and it played out for Raikkonen and Hamilton in the end. But just look at the points differences between the top 3 (2007) and top 2 (2008). There was so many minor things that just slotted into place on the final rounds that worked for the eventual champions.

Originally Posted by V8 Fireworks

Leclerc seems quite good, and would be good a future number 1 for Ferrari... It seems very plausible to me that Vettel would be shown the door it he turns out he can't outperform a youngster -- it would be the perfect timing for Ferrari to sign the superstar Verstappen in fact!

For what it's worth, I've nothing against LeClerc as a driver. I do think he's fast but only insofar as Ocon, Gasly and Norris have shown us that they have raw pace worth considering (yes, I know there are contractual obligations at play here too). I just think it's mad to assume that he'll be a race winner straight out of the blocks. He hasn't WOWED me to that extent at all. If he does outperform Vettel, fair dues, and for sure, Vettel's position would be in a vulnerable state I'm sure. But I don't know why we're even projecting that outlandish possibility on the 2019 season. I mean point me to where LeClerc has shown THAT much potential....I'm not being rude or aggressive. I'd like to see him do well and put it up to the proven winners. And he's now in the top tier which gives him a massive advantage over the rest of the field. But a winner out of the blocks....I'd be happy to swallow my pride but...

[Adam43]

Leclerc could be better or worse than Raikkonen.
We know Raikkonen is good at best over a season nowadays. We have lots of data for this.
Leclerc has the potential to be better, to be great. We have a small amount of data for this.
He could be worse. We have little to think this is the case, but there is uncertainty.

The potential is greater. The uncertainty may be high, but the indicators are good. I’d make this choice. And I’m a Kimi fan.

Could be wrong, but that seems to be the rationale for keeping Kimi instead of the risk of itiseye. The risk of being wrong. Boooooooorrrrrrrrrrrriiinnnnnngggggggggg.

[BSchneiderFan]

Originally Posted by F1Pete

I remember reading somewhere that it was Marchionne’s goal to put a huge focus on Alfa Romeo because it was a passion for him to market the brand extensively in the future. So, I believe he wanted Kimi in the Sauber deal while they were looking at Lerclerc for their long range plan.

So far that has paid off. Kimi ‘s entrance to Sauber has already paid dividends and has had a positive impact for the sponsors.

I am sure this was no surprise to Kimi and is a win win for everyone. Kimi still gets to race, he will get paid very well, Ferrari will develop their new driver.

When I say win win for everyone I mean Kimi will win some races too next year.


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Do you really think next year’s Sauber will be a race winner?

[Adam43]

I wonder if Raikkonen can do as well as Leclerc this year? Should Sauber have taken this risk?

Leclerc has scored 15 points in a Sauber so far this season. Can Kimi? Or should Sauber have stuck with itiseye.

[gert]

I think Leclerc will be fine.
Almost everyone was doubting Bottas at the start of 2017, yet he took 4 poles and won 3 races.
Same can be said of Ricciardo when he went to Red Bull (the doubts, and the 3 wins - not the poles)

If next year's Ferrari is competitive with next year's Mercedes (and Red Bull?) I think Leclerc's results will be comparable to Kimi's 2018 season, or Bottas' 2017 season.

[BSchneiderFan]

Autosport reports that Dale Coyne has been talking to Vandoorne about a possible drive. Risky on Stoffel’s part.

[S griffin]

With so few seats in F1, is it any surprise?

[BSchneiderFan]

Originally Posted by S griffin

With so few seats in F1, is it any surprise?

Not really, but even so. Coyne admitted that Wickens’s crash was making potential IndyCar drivers have at least a pause for thought. It seems to me that Vandoorne’s options (assuming he doesn’t snatch an F1 seat at the last minute) are:

1. Third driver;
2. IndyCars;
3. WEC, or
4. Super Formula.

I suppose one might add 5. DTM, but with Mercedes pulling out, the market has been/will be flooded with fast, experienced drivers, which could hurt his chances.

[gert]

Originally Posted by BSchneiderFan

It seems to me that Vandoorne’s options (assuming he doesn’t snatch an F1 seat at the last minute) are:
1. Third driver;
2. IndyCars;
3. WEC, or
4. Super Formula.

That's too early to say. There's also Formula E, ELMS, Blancpain GT, ...
Not only for Vandoorne but for everyone who can't get into or hang on to F1.

--

Apart from that Coyne was also interested in Ocon; while Vandorone and Wehrlein are on Schmidt-Petersen's shortlist.

[BSchneiderFan]

George Russell is quoted as saying Formula 1 needs at least two more teams. It would widen the pool of available seats, but I don’t know of any team, group or consortium which is anything like race-ready if more slots on the grid did become available.

[S griffin]

I have been saying that too. 10 teams is not enough

[bjohnsonsmith]

Just goes to show how expensive F1 has become.

[BSchneiderFan]

The problem is not so much the expense per se (though that is an issue) but the yawning gap between F1 and any other sort of motorsport. There’s no realistic way, usually, for an F2 or IndyCar team which is excelling to make the step up. The only comparator I can think of, in terms of resources, are the big LMP factory squads, Audi, Porsche and (to an extent) Toyota. But two of them have pulled out and Toyota is looking to reduce, not expand, its expenditure.

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by BSchneiderFan

The problem is not so much the expense per se (though that is an issue) but the yawning gap between F1 and any other sort of motorsport. There’s no realistic way, usually, for an F2 or IndyCar team which is excelling to make the step up. The only comparator I can think of, in terms of resources, are the big LMP factory squads, Audi, Porsche and (to an extent) Toyota. But two of them have pulled out and Toyota is looking to reduce, not expand, its expenditure.

With regards to IndyCar teams, do they need to make the step up? Admittedly, IndyCar isn't at quite the same level as AOWR was during the CART era but it's getting there, considering how things looked 10 years ago when Champ Car and the IRL merged.

[BSchneiderFan]

But in audience terms - and therefore in sponsorship reach - as well as prestige, IndyCar is a million miles behind Formula 1. Who watches IndyCar in China, or Japan, or Russia, or Africa? How many even follow it in the UK, where there’s a strong motorsport tradition and well-subscribed grass roots?