Teammates comparison 2022

[Schummy]

Well... it is about... comparison of teammates...

         BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ   GRID RACE  TOTAL
VER-PER  10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 =  5-3  5-3  10- 6  55%   Equality
LEC-SAI  11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 =  8-0  6-2  14- 2  99.6% Utterly busted!
HAM-RUS  11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 =  3-5  1-7   4-12  92%   Almost busted

In each race there are two numbers, the first number is qualifying position, the second is race classification (including DNF positions). An "1" means the first driver was better, "0" means the opposite.

So, "10" in Emilia Romagna for Red Bull means Verstappen was better in qualy (I DON'T BOTHER with mini race's positions grid!) while Perez was better classified in the (proper) race.

GRID: scores in qualy
RACE: scores in races
TOTAL: sum of the two

Percentage: In an approx statistical alaguage, probability (or degree of certainty) that the driver ahead is really ahead (and not just by random chance). I add a descriptive text to help to interpret thos probabilities:

-- Utterly busted: the driver behind performed worse with virtually total certainty (no bad luck excuses!).

-- Busted: the driver behind performed worse almost surely.
-- Almost busted: the driver behind is nearly being busted.
-- Advantage: the driver ahead probably is performing better but not yet without a "reasonable doubt".
-- Equality: the minor differences can be easily due to random events.

I get the info in a slightly convoluted way in FORIX (convoluted because I try to save time and effort) so I hope there are not errors but... I would be happy if someone see any anomaly and tell it here. I love true data and hate false data (well, "hate" is a bit exaggerated word here).

In a future I could increase the number of teams to compare. But I am notoriously unreliable in my schedule, so who knows?

[Born Racer]

Thanks so much, Schummy. I would love to spot anomalies, as you say, but I'm in no position to present you with anything other than false data. Surprised to see Verstappen and Pérez on equality. My initial reaction would've been that Verstappen would be clearly shading him, albeit not busting him like I guess he did eventually last season.

I guess Ricciardo is totally busted.

[davec]

I always like looking at these so thanks for doing it again.

I guess for me the question is do we have enough data to make a meaningful statistical analysis yet. For Max and Checo they are on "equality" currently but IF Max had lasted 1 lap more in Bahrain and Checo 1 lap less they would be 11-5 rather than 10-6 which is quite a swing statistically.

[Schummy]

Oh, 11-5 and 10-6 are statistically very similar. Imagine throwing 16 times a coin, and repeating the experiment several times. Just by chance you would get a lot more variability than that,however the coin is exactly the same in all those experiments.

Sorry if I extend my babbling a bit more but I think it is an interesting point. (^_^)'

We, humans (and perhaps some users who are AIs in disguise :-p ), tends to be biased to perceive patterns where there is not more than randomness. Luckily. cold math calculations can save us of this king of bias of our mind.

So, 4-12 for Hamilton is rare to be observed by chance if LH and GR were equal. It could still happen, so Hammy is "Almost busted". However, Sainz's 2-14 is almost impossible to be gotten between two equal teammates just by chance. Thus, he is "Utterly busted": he is surely performing worse than Leclerc and not by bad luck alone.

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Thanks so much, Schummy. I would love to spot anomalies, as you say, but I'm in no position to present you with anything other than false data. Surprised to see Verstappen and Pérez on equality. My initial reaction would've been that Verstappen would be clearly shading him, albeit not busting him like I guess he did eventually last season.

I guess Ricciardo is totally busted.

Thanks a lot!

Yeah, perhaps the two surprises of the season are HAM-RUS and VER-PER. Very interesting couple of teams. It is also interesting to see the faces of Wolf and Horner in certain moments when they are caught off-guard by camera :-D . The current narrative is not what they expected/wished, although Horner position is more pleasant!

One of my next team to watch is McLaren! However, I am afraid data are going to bring bad news for "Ricky".

[Schummy]

After Canada:

         BA SA AU ER MI SP MO AZ CA   GRID RACE  TOTAL
VER-PER  10 01 10 11 11 11 00 01 11 =  6-3  6-3  12- 6  76%    Advantage 
LEC-SAI  11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 00 =  8-1  6-3  14- 4  97%    Busted!
HAM-RUS  11 00 10 00 10 00 00 00 11 =  4-5  2-7   6-12  76%(*) Advantage 
NOR-RIC  10 11 11 11 10 01 11 10 00 =  7-2  5-4  12- 6  76%(*) Advantage

(*)RUS has a higher strength (82%) in races, NOR has a higher strength (82%) in qualy.

"Surprisingly", Ricky is not doing so badly. LOL, he is like Hamilton vs Russell!! Maybe Toto will begin to search for a replacement for 2023? (My personal candidate would be Schiff.)

Now, Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren are in the same state (12-6). In every case, the stronger driver needs at least three GPs to bust his teammate, so, they are safe in the short term.