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Old 5 Nov 2018, 19:37 (Ref:3861194)   #251
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Cut Leclerc some slack. If you are writing him up like the world beater and he turns out not to be...will you then say he is overrated and criticize Ferrari for the choice?

He appears to be good. Give him some room to prove it before getting crazy about him.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 19:55 (Ref:3861195)   #252
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Well he might not get that next season, but he has the potential to do it
The key to what you are saying is the word potential.

There is uncertainty with Leclerc. We know Raikkonen rarely beats Vettel. Laclerc has been impressive, but it is difficult to know the ultimately level he is at. The potential is there. It isn’t with Raikkonen.

Do I expect him to beat Vettel next year. Of course not. Would it surprise me if he did. No.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 20:23 (Ref:3861199)   #253
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Do I expect him to beat Vettel next year. Of course not. Would it surprise me if he did. No.
So you do expect it? Or how does that work?
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 20:25 (Ref:3861200)   #254
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So you do expect it? Or how does that work?
You can not expect something but not be surprised if it happens. That's how it works.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 20:33 (Ref:3861201)   #255
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The way Ricciardo outperformed Vettel so comprehensively, rather shows that Vettel is just not that good (certainly not a bad driver... but on par with Hamilton or Alonso and worth a similar salary? probably not), so I think it is quite probable that Leclerc relative performnace will make Vettel's huge salary seem like a waste of money.

Therefore the Scuderia will find another driver to replace Vettel, either Verstappen if they want to keep spending huge salaries, or they could recall Ricciardo from Renault on a smaller salary IMO.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 20:41 (Ref:3861202)   #256
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The way Ricciardo outperformed Vettel, rather shows that Vettel is just not that good, so I think it is quite probable that Leclerc will make Vettel's Ferrari salary seem like most unwise spending by the Scuderia.
David Coulthard absolutely spanked Mika Hakkinen in 2001. And he managed to 50/50 Webber whilst at Red Bull. And Webber got absolutely destroyed by Vettel at Red Bull. So using the "single data point teammate comparison" model, Vettel is miles better than Mika Hakkinen, and therefore Michael Schumacher. But Schumacher got beat by Rosberg. But Rosberg beat Lewis. So now Rosberg is top of the pile. Hmmm.

Or to word it better - a single data point isn't worth that much when trying to consider things Especially something as complex as F1. Vettel is exceptionally good when things are 'just right' for him. The Red Bull being a car you could abuse, and the V8 era having relatively lazy throttle response was something Vettel was *amazing* at. There were years where Webber was no where, and Vettel was 30 seconds ahead of everyone. Was Webber that bad? Of course not. It's just that Vettel perfected driving that particular type of car. He doesn't suit the more touchy nature of the current power units, although he has gotten better with them. But even visually, he struggled with them in his final Red Bull and first Ferrari year.

This type of thing is pretty common. There are super skilled NASCAR drivers who can't drive other types of car. It just doesn't suit them. There are super skilled F1 drivers who are mediocre at other cars too. There are drivers like Andre Lotterrer, who nailed the just-finishing LMP1 hybrid era like others struggled to. Vettel is one of those drivers.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 20:44 (Ref:3861203)   #257
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So you do expect it? Or how does that work?
When I roll a die I don’t expect it to be a six, but when one comes up I’m not surprised.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 20:53 (Ref:3861207)   #258
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When I roll a die I don’t expect it to be a six, but when one comes up I’m not surprised.
That's just a lazy cop out. You either expect Leclerc to beat Vettel or you don't, or alternatively you don't have any expectations. I presume it's the latter then, in your case .
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 20:57 (Ref:3861208)   #259
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Vettel is exceptionally good when things are 'just right' for him.
Since his team-mate was Webber (an average driver by his own admission, with determination exceeding talent), and not Alonso or Hamilton it's hard to say how well Vettel really drove in his championship years... If Damon Hill or Jacques Villeuneve had their car advantage for four years they would have four titles too, much like Mr. Vettel.

If Vettel had defeated Red Bull team-mate Alonso four times in the same car to a WDC that would be something, but simply not the case! Therefore it's quite hard to say, evidence shows that Vettel was significantly outperformed by Ricciardo who himself is outperformed by Verstappen.

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But Rosberg beat Lewis. So now Rosberg is top of the pile.
Actually, it's likely Verstappen is the best driver in F1 currently IMO [of course only a direct pairing of Verstappen and Hamilton would make it clear].

Since, Verstappen > Ricciardo > Vettel We can't really place Vettel and Ricciardo compared to Hamilton or Alonso as the haven't driven as teammates which is a pity. However we know that Alonso and Hamilton are at roughly the same level from 2007; while 2007-8 Ferrari's pairing shows that Massa and Raikkonen are at the same level. With Rosberg being very good and very close to Hamilton's level (2016 as you say), and able to beat Hamilton on points with a little luck. Whilst Ricciardo's defeat of Vettel was much more than luck, it was a comprehensive drubbing of the German by the Australian.

Obviously comeback M. Schumacher cannot be compared.

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expect Leclerc to beat Vettel or you don't,
Leclerc will beat Vettel. Vettel will sure seem overpaid after this!

Last edited by V8 Fireworks; 5 Nov 2018 at 21:10.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 21:00 (Ref:3861209)   #260
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That's just a lazy cop out. You either expect Leclerc to beat Vettel or you don't, or alternatively you don't have any expectations. I presume it's the latter then, in your case .
No it’s not. It’s just I understand the concept of uncertainty and probability. I am also gauging what information we have and what conclusions can be drawn from that.

As I said, I expect Vettel to have the upper hand next year. However I realise there is a chance that this might not be the case. I can accept that and that I cannot be certain. As I don’t have all the information to be dogmatic and definitive about it I am not.

It isn’t lazy, or a cop out, it is rationale.

I have given my expectation and I have given context of how confident I am. It is more difficult to do this, hence why most people are too lazy, or incapable, to make judgements in this manner.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 21:00 (Ref:3861210)   #261
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That's just a lazy cop out. You either expect Leclerc to beat Vettel or you don't, or alternatively you don't have any expectations. I presume it's the latter then, in your case .
No, if you're going to be academic about it, then it's perfectly plausible to:

a) not have any expectations
b) have a modicum of surprise at some outcomes, and
c) not have any surprise at some others.

The world isn't black and white. Leclerc might spank Vettel and nobody will be surprised if he does, because he's been given the Big Ups by practically everyone; equally likely is that Vettel spanks Leclerc, and nobody will be surprised because Vettel is a multiple word champion; also equally likely is that they're about even, which might be mildly surprising because the first two outcomes seem to be the ones that are being portrayed as most likely.

In other words: we'll see in November 2019.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 21:07 (Ref:3861212)   #262
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No it’s not. It’s just I understand the concept of uncertainty and probability. I am also gauging what information we have and what conclusions can be drawn from that.

As I said, I expect Vettel to have the upper hand next year. However I realise there is a chance that this might not be the case. I can accept that and that I cannot be certain. As I don’t have all the information to be dogmatic and definitive about it I am not.

It isn’t lazy, or a cop out, it is rationale.

I have given my expectation and I have given context of how confident I am. It is more difficult to do this, hence why most people are too lazy, or incapable, to make judgements in this manner.
That makes sense. But people usually use 'I wouldn't be surprised if' to indicate that the thing they wouldn't be surprised about is the thing they're expecting. Just saying!
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 21:08 (Ref:3861213)   #263
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Vettel is exceptionally good when things are 'just right' for him.
The same could be said for Hamilton by the way. It's the thing that sets them apart from the rest I reckon.
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 21:12 (Ref:3861216)   #264
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I expect my car to start in the morning because that is the normal outcome. But given that it’s a 12 year old fiesta I won’t be surprised if it doesn’t. Just because it is not the expected outcome, doesn’t meant it’s surprising. There’s a real world example since you consider the previous one a cop out (it isn’t).
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 21:13 (Ref:3861217)   #265
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also equally likely is that they're about even, which might be mildly surprising because the first two outcomes seem to be the ones that are being portrayed as most likely.
If their speed is about even^ which I think is quite likely, then Vettel's regularity of mistakes means the more reliable Leclerc will be able to collect more points and finish ahead in the WDC. This will surely cause Ferrari to reconsider the value-for-money they get from Mr. Vettel's salary!

^(placing both drivers as solid talents that are between upper-midfield and top driver level)
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Old 5 Nov 2018, 23:41 (Ref:3861246)   #266
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Here we go again. Vettel making excuses for not winning the title.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/13...nant-car-in-18


Vettel really should learn how to be a gracious loser. He made excuses last year too. At least learn to be 'gracious'. Because being a 'loser', well... at least that bit is true and correct.




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Old 6 Nov 2018, 00:51 (Ref:3861258)   #267
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Yes, definitely not gracious...

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Old 6 Nov 2018, 01:04 (Ref:3861262)   #268
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cant say i disagree with SV in that link. Ferrari had a really strong car but they never did enjoy the same kind of dominance as Merc had when Merc showed up all dialed in.

they are close but still not yet as consistently 'there' as the Merc car. honest and true assessment from SV imo.
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Old 6 Nov 2018, 15:23 (Ref:3861376)   #269
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But still he made far too many mistakes for it to be just down to the car
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Old 6 Nov 2018, 20:15 (Ref:3861438)   #270
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But still he made far too many mistakes for it to be just down to the car
If you are outperforming / trying to outperform the car you will make mistakes, if you are driving within the car's capabilities you will be more consistent.
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Old 6 Nov 2018, 21:22 (Ref:3861462)   #271
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I'm not entirely convinced though that all of the errors were down to trying to outperform the car. Take Germany for instance. Desperation to keep the title alive had a smidge to do with it as well....
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Old 7 Nov 2018, 00:03 (Ref:3861497)   #272
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I'm not entirely convinced though that all of the errors were down to trying to outperform the car. Take Germany for instance. Desperation to keep the title alive had a smidge to do with it as well....
Sticking it in the wall is never going to be good, but he was caught out in mixed conditions as were a bunch of other cars, also Kimi who was directly behind Vettel did not manage to hold position against the Mercs, so Vettel would have been under a lot of pressure to keep his lap times very low, and that was why he was probably pressured into a mistake.
Hamilton was also granted a free pass by the stewards for his pit entrance change, and Bottas on full wets was prevented from winning by Mercedes.
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Old 7 Nov 2018, 08:09 (Ref:3861563)   #273
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Germany was completely Vettel's error. But I am still thinking would it have happened had Ferrari called Kimi back 10 laps earlier. It was clear that Vettel was faster. He would have had a bigger lead meaning he would have been under less pressure.

Yes, the driver should not throw it away under any circumstances. But that might have contributed.
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Old 7 Nov 2018, 08:49 (Ref:3861576)   #274
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I think he could have bridged the gap without the mistakes, as sometimes the Ferrari has outperformed the Merc.
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Old 3 Dec 2018, 04:22 (Ref:3867562)   #275
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The problem with Ferrari for 2019.

Vettel v Leclerc

and

Arrivabene v Binotto the Ferrari Technical Director who was apparently going to be promoted to team Principle at the end of 2018 before the death of Sergio Marchionne.

https://www.motorsportmagazine.com/n...power-struggle

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