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Old 20 Mar 2020, 09:10 (Ref:3965721)   #126
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In the final analysis, I don't expect Coronavirus to be responsible for many more deaths than the average yearly toll attributed to 'normal' flu, and I'm still waiting for someone (anyone!) to explain to me why we have this seemingly OTT reaction to it all?
The 'normal' flu, as you put it, is a known risk and we have vaccinations in place. The death toll is high, but it is predictable and manageable. We are also able to protect the vulnerable from this, and are aware of the scale of impact.
It is also a well established virus, that can be seen as a constant - the horse has already left the stable on that one.

COVID-19 is a new virus that the eventual scale of is not known. An adviser recently said that they are hoping to kill this virus off in it's first year, to prevent it becoming a seasonal risk. If it has the potential to establish a degree of permanence, we get one chance to prevent that, and that is now.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 09:29 (Ref:3965725)   #127
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Think we should draw a line under this thread as we know what majority think
This could be a bit more important than raving old bags of bolts!
At some point someone can start a thread
‘The restart of the world as we knew it!’
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 09:59 (Ref:3965728)   #128
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Perhaps we should be considering the longer term implications such as the distinct likelihood of a population explosion in 9 months time given that so many people are confined to barracks and have time on their hands!
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 10:01 (Ref:3965729)   #129
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Your not Alone Paul,I was up up early this morning and local garage was full of builders,decorators all going to work. I admire you for being honest.For me I just dont know., does anyone ?
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 10:14 (Ref:3965732)   #130
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No they don’t but people who are much brighter than us on here advises a major problem.
If staying at a distance from each other may save people’s lives is it not worth doing irrespective of your personal views.
Usual self centred nonsense.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 10:26 (Ref:3965736)   #131
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Now even the Monaco Grand Prix has been cancelled - could that affect the Monaco Historic, also?
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 10:37 (Ref:3965742)   #132
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What has to be understood today and with the Covid-19 is that as pointed out by others there are ways to frame the seasonal flu through vaccines and so on which gives us an edge on the virus and ensure we can protect the people at risk. With the Covid-19, the trouble is that there are no vaccines or clear way to control it at the moment.

What is clear is that the virus is very volatile and that most people are not aware they are even infected, second point is about the number of beds available in the ICUs around your country. By staying and continuing normal life, gatherings and exchanging germs, and all, it is the usual way the virus spreads, it is then likely that it will just spread more and more.

If you stay away from one and another, then you can lower the potential exchanges of the virus and spreading, therefore the number of people that may occupy those ICU beds which is what matters.

This is the exact reason why the lockdowns are being put in place in Italy, about to reach us in Switzerland and already in place in Spain or France already. People not caring has led to Italy enforcing a policy of chosing whom may live, depending on age and so on, part of Switzerland has reached its maximum number of beds and the army was called in yesterday.

Think large and not just of yourself.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 10:38 (Ref:3965743)   #133
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Now even the Monaco Grand Prix has been cancelled - could that affect the Monaco Historic, also?
It was cancelled yesterday.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 10:41 (Ref:3965744)   #134
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Now even the Monaco Grand Prix has been cancelled - could that affect the Monaco Historic, also?
Monaco Historique also cancelled.


PRESS RELEASE
Published on 19 March 2020
The current situation concerning the worldwide pandemic and its unknown path of evolution, the lack of understanding as to the impact on the FIA F1 World Championship 2020, the uncertainty with regards to the participation of the teams, the consequences with regards to the differing measures of confinement as taken by various governments worldwide, the multi-border restrictions for accessing the Principality of Monaco, the pressure on all implicated businesses, their dedicated staff who are unable to undertake the necessary installations, the availability of the indispensable workforce and volunteers (more than 1500) required for the success of the event means that the situation is no longer tenable.



As a result, and after careful consideration as to the gravity of this crisis worldwide, it is with great sadness that the AUTOMOBILE CLUB DE MONACO Board of Directors has taken the decision to cancel the 12th GRAND PRIX DE MONACO HISTORIQUE (8-10 May 2020) and the 78th GRAND PRIX DE MONACO FORMULA 1, FIA World Championship (21-24 May 2020).



To all the fans, spectators, partners and our members, the Board of Directors wishes to express its sincere regrets that these two events cannot be postponed and under no circumstances, will it be possible to organize these events later this year.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 10:54 (Ref:3965749)   #135
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On a bit more lighter note, it seems that Drive it Day is still on. Get your classic car or bike out but don't gather anywhere. I fully expect anyone riding an AA motorcycle and sidecar to salute as I pass by.

Ad John R points out we do need to take all necessary precautions so that at the right time we can all get back on track.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 11:01 (Ref:3965750)   #136
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OK, fair enough - I accept the counter-arguments above.

If you read my post, I never said we shouldn't do anything - I did say that sensible precautions made sense - such as avoiding unnecessary personal contact with others, especially those who may be vulnerable. I absolutely agree with that.

But I just don't know if what we're seeing at the moment is a 'balanced' response? No, I'm not an expert, and neither are most of us on here.

But I do seem to remember that many of these same 'experts', over the last decade or so, have advised that the human race was about to be decimated by bird flu, swine flu, Ebola, SARS, etc, but in the final analysis, none of those turned out to be anything like as bad as predicted.

So, my question is - why is the Coronavirus different? Does anyone know? I'm not being facetious here, I'm genuinely not sure why we're treating this outbreak so differently to those mentioned above.

Perhaps it's far more contagious than those mentioned? Does anyone know if that's so?

By the way - I'm not just being selfish here. Far from it in fact, as I work alone, from home, and I can continue to operate whilst staying within current guidelines without too much disruption to my business. However, there are millions of people out there who are already being adversely affected, and I'm really thinking more about those than myself.

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Old 20 Mar 2020, 11:21 (Ref:3965754)   #137
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So, my question is - why is the Coronavirus different? Does anyone know? I'm not being facetious here, I'm genuinely not sure why we're treating this outbreak so differently to those mentioned above.
I think because it has a combination of factors that make it so hard to contain:

Slow incubation period - so individuals can travel long distances and to multiple locations whilst transmitting the virus.
High mortality rate (potentially).
Symptoms that are easily mis-attributed to other illnesses - meaning people may have it but assume it is something else.

Previous illnesses have been too efficient at killing - essentially causing their own limitation of spread. This one appears (to me) to have the right balance of speed and strength to keep spreading for a long time.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 12:47 (Ref:3965785)   #138
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I think because it has a combination of factors that make it so hard to contain:

Slow incubation period - so individuals can travel long distances and to multiple locations whilst transmitting the virus.
High mortality rate (potentially).
Symptoms that are easily mis-attributed to other illnesses - meaning people may have it but assume it is something else.

Previous illnesses have been too efficient at killing - essentially causing their own limitation of spread. This one appears (to me) to have the right balance of speed and strength to keep spreading for a long time.
Agree on all above, I think scientists fear that it could mutate in to something even worse too.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 13:04 (Ref:3965794)   #139
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I understand Paul’s point even if i dont necessarily agree.

Plenty of advice not to travel, mingle with others, go to pubs etc but govt havent explicitly told organisations to shut down.
Scientific advice seems to support the isolationist view but no definitive rules. In addition some people I respect who are on front line (inc a heart surgeon and a paramedic) think it is an over blown response.
Motorsport is an outdoor activity with limited group activity but we could have an adverse impact on medical facilities if need a&e etc; I get that and why i didnt attend the cscc test day but i intend to play golf tomorrow.
The govt is still largely relying on us to make our own decisions. They need to be explicit.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 13:08 (Ref:3965798)   #140
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I understand Paul’s point.
Plenty of advice not to travel, mingle with others, go to pubs etc but govt havent explicitly told organisations to shut down.
Scientific advice seems to support the isolationist view but no definitive rules. In addition some people I respect who are on front line (inc a heart surgeon and a paramedic) think it is an over blown response.
Motorsport is an outdoor activity with limited group activity but we could have an adverse impact on medical facilities if need a&e etc; I get that and why i didnt attend the cscc test day but i intend to play golf tomorrow.
The govt is still largely relying on us to make our own decisions. They need to be explicit.
The root of the problem is probably in your last line.

Far too many people now have been so conditioned to being told what to do every step of their lives that they are incapable/unwilling to use their initiative to do the right thing. They always want that comfort blanket of having someone else to blame.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 13:28 (Ref:3965802)   #141
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The root of the problem is probably in your last line.

Far too many people now have been so conditioned to being told what to do every step of their lives that they are incapable/unwilling to use their initiative to do the right thing. They always want that comfort blanket of having someone else to blame.
The trouble is, John, that we are in uncharted waters and if the Govt want us all to swim in the same direction they do need to clear.
Now i dont expect them to get even 60% of the decisions right but we do all need to behave the same way and support it or else there is misunderstanding, people will use their initiative in different ways and even resentment ior rebellion. That wont help combat the problem.
This isnt about blame and comfort blankets, it is about ensuring a consistent approach.
I did not attend the test day, despite thinking it was low risk because i thought it was the right thing to do in lineceith govt advice, but others did despite the same info being given.....
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 13:36 (Ref:3965806)   #142
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The advice is, social distancing. What more do people need? I've heard some suggesting we implement Marshal law. That would be disastrous.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 13:49 (Ref:3965807)   #143
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The advice is, social distancing. What more do people need? I've heard some suggesting we implement Marshal law. That would be disastrous.
When the boss of Wetherspoons is arguing that shutting pubs is “over the top” and even my local gym is still open (probably one of the higher risk types of establishments for coming into contact with other peoples sweat & breath!) then i suggest that people do need more explicit instruction.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 13:50 (Ref:3965808)   #144
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Worth emphasising that the key goal of most of the restrictions is to reduce the pressure on the NHS, especially ICUs. If the virus is allowed to run wild, medical services will be overwhelmed and people will die who could have been saved, plus other people will die from other causes because care is not available.

In the long-term we will all likely get it, the vast majority will be fine and those who get more acute illness can be treated. Herd immunity will then suppress future outbreaks. The challenge is to stop that happening all at once, massively exceeding the capacity of health services to cope.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 13:54 (Ref:3965811)   #145
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What is a disaster here is that the rules change everyday. We must stay at home, which makes sense, and the new law is enforced everyday. First fine is 135 € which sounds too few.
But this morning two ministries said it would be good that people go back to work" if possible" to avoid a future financial disaster. Should we understand that we have the choice between a health disaster or a financial one? Seems we already got both.

The worse is that many doctors and nurses are off now.
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 14:06 (Ref:3965817)   #146
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Background information

In Germany bars, theatres, cinemas, parks, gyms stadiums are closed.
Restaurants are still open, only until 18.00 hours and half the tables left unoccupied

The first smaller cities have ordered curfews.
The first of 18 states (Bavaria) has ordered a curfew that will be effective of Saturday
More to follow

So far, under curfew, one is allowed to go to work and shop for necessities.

Especially Bavaria looks to Italy, beeing the closest.

Italy:
400 deaths in Bergamo alone and thats not a very large city
10 pages of orbituaries in the local newspaper
morgues filled to overflow, crematories and cemetaries cant cope with the backlog

In Germany we are beginning to understand that we are behind the curve, have wasted some of the time, but are still left with a chance to do something and make a difference

RuE
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 14:17 (Ref:3965820)   #147
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I think there is a legitimate argument that we have some over-reaction - as well as the ludicrous panic-buying - partly because we don't actually have sufficient reliable ways of testing for the virus so have to insist on any slight risk being treated as if it was full-blown virus.


I was summoned to the Doctors today for assessment after having chest X-ray and then a CT scan to investigate a long-term chest infection (well pre-dating Covid 19) - the procedure was that I had to go to the rear entrance - phone a specific number, and the be-masked doctor then met me at the rear door - issued me with a face-mask (very fiddly to fit!) before admitting me to an assessment room where my sats and temp were assessed (both acceptable apparently) before she could have a listen to my wheezing, agree that the antibiotics haven't worked and decide to issue some steroids - and also refer me for some bone-density scans as the CT scan revealed a fracture in the L1 vertabrae......


The issue obviously is that all this palaver takes a lot of time - much longer than a normal doctor's appointment, and of course most people are being deterred from attending a clinic at all - potentially meaning that people don't get the treatment they need.


Additionally there is a legitimate concern that the economic consequences of excessive caution and lockdown will cause more long-term damage than a reasonably likely rather than worse-case scenario of virus spread. Bottom line - no-one knows, but the pressure on the senior politicians to "save lives at any cost" is immense and the tendency of the broadcast and of course "social" media to hype up the concern can only increase the pressure.


The loss of our motorsport is meaningless in the grander scheme - the loss of the world's economy on the other hand........
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 18:09 (Ref:3965853)   #148
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Please don't accept any advice written on here as fact, seek professional advice if you have any concerns rather than something that Bob's uncle's cleaner's cat may have said.
But most of all stay safe and good health to you all
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 18:11 (Ref:3965854)   #149
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Some posts that were reporting previously proven misinformation, such as covid virus size, temperature tolerance etc. have been removed. Please stick to facts from reliable official sources not "My mate posted this on facebook about information his brother got sent"
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Old 20 Mar 2020, 18:18 (Ref:3965858)   #150
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Indeed.
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