[Driver] The GOAT - A bracket to determine (just for fun)

[crmalcolm]

I've decided to run with the suggestion in the GOAT / Lewis Hamilton threads and create a bracket to determine conclusively (in a non-conclusive, totally for fun, not really serious) who TenTenths members feel is the F1 GOAT in head to head knockout style.

I've brought the thread here into the Predictions Contest & Fun area to prevent cluttering up the main F1 area (Mods, hopefully this is appropriate?)

I am currently compiling the list of seeds to be entered into the bracket. Once complete, then a series of 'polls' will be used to determine the results of each round. I will try and combine 'matches' to minimise the amount of threads generated, so please read carefully the options when a poll is posted.

The results of each match will be posted in this thread, and the bracket will work towards an overall GOAT.

[chillibowl]

awesome! are you going to go for the full 64?

gonna be hard to compile the seeding list though and no doubt will be subject to criticism...which may make you rethink your efforts!

how about just picking one metric to use as your basis. one that also allows you to seed them outside the 'normal' order. would make some of the earlier rounds less obvious/more fun.

for example, here is a list for average grid position...i then selected 50 GP starts to get rid of some of the outliers. this site does have a bunch of other lists/ranking as well. maybe a min number of race wins would be the most basic qualifier.

https://www.statsf1.com/en/statistiq...e-moyenne.aspx

perhaps a side thread where we can debate matchups before voting...and of course a place to argue when we think the vote went the wrong way.

anyways, however you do it, i think its a great idea!

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

awesome! are you going to go for the full 64?

gonna be hard to compile the seeding list though and no doubt will be subject to criticism...which may make you rethink your efforts!

how about just picking one metric to use as your basis. one that also allows you to seed them outside the 'normal' order. would make some of the earlier rounds less obvious/more fun.

for example, here is a list for average grid position...i then selected 50 GP starts to get rid of some of the outliers. this site does have a bunch of other lists/ranking as well.

https://www.statsf1.com/en/statistiq...e-moyenne.aspx

perhaps a side thread where we can debate matchups before voting...and of course a place to argue when we think the vote went the wrong way.

anyways, however you do it, i think its a great idea!

My list is 67 - so I need a preliminary round.

My starting position is to take the following two lists:

Autosport's top 40 of all time.
newatlas's top 50 of all time.
Then add in BTCC Frog's 25 from the poll. This has resulted in a list of 67 names.

These have been seeded using the combined results, then factoring in race wins and titles, to give the final list of seeds. I need to get this down to 64 for the bracket, so there is going to be a preliminary qualifier.

I'm sure some will disagree with the list - but it's just for fun so people can stay upset if they wish!

[chillibowl]

oh a play in tournament for the last seed!

i love it, proper march madness indeed!

[crmalcolm]

Round One - first eight matches:

Farina vs Surtees
Hill.G vs Gonzalez
Ascari vs Patrese
Andretti.M vs Ickx
Clark vs Heidfeld
Verstappen.M vs Peterson
Fangio vs Pace
Senna vs Ginther

[Aysedasi]

Thanks for doing this. Although the whole GOAT thing was becoming a bit tired in my view, this is actually quite good fun.....

[Adam43]

I’m enjoying too.

I’m in there and voting for each one. In these early rounds most are an easy choice, but not all. It’s going to become more competitive as we go on.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Adam43

In these early rounds most are an easy choice, but not all. It’s going to become more competitive as we go on.

I expected this would be inevitable with a seeding-based bracket.

I am keeping the actual seeds hidden, with the exception of the qualifier who will be seeded 64th.

4th vs 61st will be an easy choice - 32nd vs 33rd might be a different matter.

[Adam43]

Yes. It’s just like the snooker.

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

I am keeping the actual seeds hidden...

a very smart choice!

thanks for doing this.

[BTCC frog]

Yes, it will be interesting to see whether the winner of this is the same as the winner of the normal poll. And if not, it's very difficult to know which winner is actually considered the GOAT by the fans. But this is a very enjoyable exercise.

[crmalcolm]

Round One - second eight matches:

Hulme vs Rosberg.K
Mansell vs Depailler
Raikkonen vs Regazzoni
Jones vs Gurney
Piquet vs Rosier
Hunt vs Ricciardo
Stewart vs Brundle
Alonso vs Kubica

[crmalcolm]

Round One - third eight matches:

Scheckter vs Hawthorn
Fittipaldi.E vs Fittipaldi.C
Rosberg.N vs Watson
Hakkinen vs de Angelis
Button vs Frentzen
Reutemann vs Berger
Prost vs Beltoise
Vettel vs Pryce

[crmalcolm]

Round One - fourth (and final) set of eight matches:

Villeneuve.J vs Villeneuve.G
Lauda vs Surer
Moss vs Hill.P
Brabham vs Rodriguez
Hill.D vs Boutsen
Rindt vs Barrichello
Hamilton vs Cevert
Schumacher vs Bellof

[FIRE]

You give us a lot of homework...

[crmalcolm]

All 32 1st round matches are as follows:

Farina vs Surtees
Hill.G vs Gonzalez
Ascari vs Patrese
Andretti.M vs Ickx
Clark vs Heidfeld
Verstappen.M vs Peterson
Fangio vs Pace
Senna vs Ginther
Hulme vs Rosberg.K
Mansell vs Depailler
Raikkonen vs Regazzoni
Jones vs Gurney
Piquet vs Rosier
Hunt vs Ricciardo
Stewart vs Brundle
Alonso vs Kubica
Scheckter vs Hawthorn
Fittipaldi.E vs Fittipaldi.C
Rosberg.N vs Watson
Hakkinen vs de Angelis
Button vs Frentzen
Reutemann vs Berger
Prost vs Beltoise
Vettel vs Pryce
Villeneuve.J vs Villeneuve.G
Lauda vs Surer
Moss vs Hill.P
Brabham vs Rodriguez
Hill.D vs Boutsen
Rindt vs Barrichello
Hamilton vs Cevert
Schumacher vs Bellof


In the early stages of competition - just three matches appear to be going against (statistical) form.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by FIRE

You give us a lot of homework...

And plenty of his own!

[FIRE]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

And plenty of his own!

Like most teachers.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

And plenty of his own!

Originally Posted by FIRE

Like most teachers.

[crmalcolm]

A quick point of order.
I'm sure you are all wondering* - what happens if there is a tie?

Well fear not - prior to each poll going live, I have made my own choice but not cast this. When the poll closes for each match, if there is a winner that result will stand. If there is a tie, I will add my vote to determine a winner.







* I expect none of you are actually wondering - but it crossed my mind when I was looking at the possibilities *

[Aysedasi]

I confess I hadn't wondered, but probably should have done......

[crmalcolm]

With Round One complete, the Round Two matches are now underway. The full list is as follows:

Rosberg.N vs Fittipaldi.E
Brabham vs Hill.D
Villeneuve.J vs Stewart
Hawthorn vs Alonso
Hamilton vs Hulme
Rindt vs Prost
Button vs Häkkinen
Moss vs Piquet
Vettel vs Hunt
Lauda vs Gurney
Berger vs Senna
Schumacher vs Surtees
Raikkonen vs Mansell
Clark vs Andretti.M
Hill.G vs Ascari
Fangio vs Peterson

[Gerard C]

Thank you for this strange, funny and entertaining idea. Love it. I cant imagine how long it takes/took to prepare this contest. Not forgetting the user friendly and effective software system for votes. Merci beaucoup.

[crmalcolm]

So who was knocked out in the first round - and were any a shock?

Pre-qualifying saw the following drivers considered, but not included due to their records not being strong enough:
Chico Serra
Érik Comas
Michele Alboreto
MaurÃ*cio Gugelmin
Pedro Diniz
Adrian Sutil
Hans-Joachim Stuck
Vitaly Petrov
Johnny Herbert
Maurice Trintignant
Peter Collins
David Coulthard
Derek Warwick
Pastor Maldonado
Paul di Resta
Olivier Panis
Ralf Schumacher
Chris Amon
Kamui Kobayashi
Mark Webber
Heikki Kovalainen
Bruce McLaren
Eddie Cheever
Pierre Gasly
Jean Alesi
Stefano Modena
Mika Salo
Giancarlo Fisichella
Daniil Kvyat
Timo Glock
Jean-Eric Vergne
Lance Stroll
Marcus Ericsson
Juan Pablo Montoya
Jarno Trulli
Jacques Laffite
Eddie Irvine
Romain Grosjean
Valtteri Bottas
Kevin Magnussen
Felipe Massa
Esteban Ocon
Nico Hülkenberg
Sergio Pérez
Carlos Sainz Jr.

It would probably be easy for an argument to be made that any of these drivers deserve to have been in the final 64 ahead of an existing contender - but are any of them a potential for GOAT?

[crmalcolm]

From the list of excluded drivers, if the bracket of 64 was to be compiled again, the following would be in with the strongest case based on statistical records:

Sergio Pérez

Sergio Pérez has plied an impressive trade as the so-called ‘king of the midfield’. His career total of 7 podiums to his teammates’ collective 1 podium makes him a rather notable outlier. The only drivers in F1 history with a higher self-to-teammate podium ratio are drivers with <5 podiums whose teammates never placed on the podium (such as Eugenio Castellotti, with a record of 4-0).

Despite Pérez’s evident talent and consistent points scoring, he has never broken through to a race-winning team. Never quite quick enough to consistently challenge the greats such as Lewis Hamilton, but too quick and not compliant enough to be a reliable number two in the mould of Valtteri Bottas. His first chance came via his association with the Ferrari driver academy. His second chance came via his 2013 signing at McLaren, replacing the outgoing Hamilton. However, this move coincided with the first year of McLaren’s major slump from 2013-2018.

Pérez debuted at age 21 for Sauber in 2011, driving alongside Kamui Kobayashi, who was 24 and starting his second full season. The pair competed together across two seasons. Although Kobayashi was more experienced, Pérez achieved a very close head-to-head record against his teammate: 13-16 in counting races, 21-16 in qualifying, and 80-84 in points. In 2011, Pérez missed two races after a concussion in a massive accident at Monaco. Pérez’s performances for Sauber in the first half of 2012 gained particular acclaim, including nearly winning the wet Malaysian GP.

Given Pérez’s signs of potential in 2012, and lacking a ready junior to fill the gap left by Hamilton’s departure, McLaren signed Pérez for 2013. Pérez was now facing high-level opposition in the form of Jenson Button as teammate. Across the season, Button demonstrated his superiority over Pérez, beating him 5-11 in counting races, 10-9 in qualifying, and 49-73 in points. With tensions building between Pérez and the team, and with McLaren juniors Kevin Magnussen and Stoffel Vandoorne (no ranking) now ready for F1, Pérez was let go for 2014.

Moving to Force India, Pérez was paired with Nico Hülkenberg from 2014-2016. Going into 2014, Hülkenberg’s reputation was at its zenith, having brutally beaten Esteban Gutiérrez and putting in impressive giant-killing drives for Sauber in 2013. Over three years, Pérez gave Hülkenberg’s reputation a reality check, ultimately scoring 26-24 in counting races, 24-34 in qualifying, and 238-226 in points.

In 2017, Pérez was paired with the highly rated Mercedes-junior Esteban Ocon. This was a fiery teammate battle as Pérez sought to prove his superiority over a less experienced driver, while Ocon tried to demonstrate his worth to the Mercedes top brass. The pair made contact with each other five times on track in the 2017 season. Across 2017-2018, the head-to-head tallies were extremely close, with Pérez scoring 19-17 in counting races, 18-22 in qualifying, and 162-136 in points. But there were clear signs of the momentum shifting from Pérez to Ocon as Ocon gained experience.

Carlos Sainz Jr.

Sainz had a successful junior career and raced several times alongside Daniil Kvyat. In their first year of single-seaters, Sainz and Kvyat raced together for EuroInternational in the Formula BMW Europe and Pacific 2010 series. Overall, Sainz beat Kvyat 15-9 in races. They continued as teammates in Formula Renault 2.0 in 2010-2011, racing in multiple European series for Koiranen. The overall record this time was 21-17 to Sainz. The pair were then reunited as teammates at MW Arden in GP3 in 2013. This time Kvyat won the battle 10-5 in races and took an impressive rookie series title, while Sainz finished the championship 10th. Kvyat was thus promoted straight to Formula 1 in 2014, while Sainz recovered his reputation in Formula Renault 3.5 to earn his promotion in 2015. Sainz won Formula Renault 3.5 ahead of Pierre Gasly and Roberto Merhi, albeit with half a season more experience in the series.

Graduating to F1 in 2015 at age 20, Sainz was paired with the extremely promising rookie Max Verstappen, who debuted at 17 with only one year of experience in single-seaters. Despite Sainz’s advantage in terms of age and junior single-seater experience, it was Verstappen who held the edge. Across just over one season as teammates, Sainz was beaten 6-7 in counting races, 9-11 in qualifying, and 22-62 in points.

When Verstappen was promoted to Red Bull, Sainz was paired with his erstwhile teammate Daniil Kvyat. Although their head-to-head record in junior series had been a close 41-36 in races, Sainz dominated their F1 match-up 17-5 in counting races, 18-12 in qualifying, and 90-8 in points. While junior series results are only partially predictive of F1 performance, Kvyat’s poor performance was likely at least partially attributable to being psychologically crushed after his sudden demotion to Toro Rosso.

When Sainz moved to Renault in late 2017, he was tested for the first time against a driver from outside the Red Bull program. Against Nico Hülkenberg, Sainz appeared to be slightly outpaced, especially in qualifying where Hülkenberg typically excels, scoring 8-10 in counting races, 6-14 in qualifying, and 59-78 in points.

Joining McLaren when Ricciardo took his seat for 2019 turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Sainz, as McLaren’s performance took a major step forward while Renault fell down the competitive order.