The Historically Accurate EV discussion

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by midgetman

Playing Devil's advocate.....yes probably people WILL "fill up" at the same time. Get home from work, plug in overnight, full charge for work the next morning.

I really do think we're going to have to find a new way of life.

Re: your last para- Indeed.

Home chargers now have to be ‘intelligent’ by legislation. This will mean they stop charging or charge at a low rate during peak periods such as above.

As for residual values of EVs, they have picked up considerably in recent months. Obviously there are exceptions like the Renault Fluence, but as we’ve said before, whatever the motive power, some models do better than others. My i3 is now worth more than it was a year ago, despite being a year older, as perceptions change.....

[Peter Mallett]

Well my order is still in for the Mach E but I'm guessing it may be delayed.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

Re: your last para- Indeed.

Home chargers now have to be ‘intelligent’ by legislation. This will mean they stop charging or charge at a low rate during peak periods such as above.

As for residual values of EVs, they have picked up considerably in recent months. Obviously there are exceptions like the Renault Fluence, but as we’ve said before, whatever the motive power, some models do better than others. My i3 is now worth more than it was a year ago, despite being a year older, as perceptions change.....

A lot of people with smaller EVs will just use a 13Amp plug in charger because , even with the subsidy, a Smart Home charger is a lot of money .
And how many others with " Smart " chargers will figure out to just use a plug in knowing that they would not get their car charged up otherwise when the demand on the grid is high .
A lot of evenings through Dec , Jan , Feb, there has been no spare capacity on the grid , so enough chargers plugged in on the normal ring mains could easily lead to major blackouts .

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

A lot of people with smaller EVs will just use a 13Amp plug in charger because , even with the subsidy, a Smart Home charger is a lot of money .
And how many others with " Smart " chargers will figure out to just use a plug in knowing that they would not get their car charged up otherwise when the demand on the grid is high .
A lot of evenings through Dec , Jan , Feb, there has been no spare capacity on the grid , so enough chargers plugged in on the normal ring mains could easily lead to major blackouts .

I think you’re wrong on all counts. But hey-ho.......

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

A lot of people with smaller EVs will just use a 13Amp plug in charger because , even with the subsidy, a Smart Home charger is a lot of money .
And how many others with " Smart " chargers will figure out to just use a plug in knowing that they would not get their car charged up otherwise when the demand on the grid is high .
A lot of evenings through Dec , Jan , Feb, there has been no spare capacity on the grid , so enough chargers plugged in on the normal ring mains could easily lead to major blackouts .

What percentage of total users do you think this would be?

The maximum load of a 13amp plug is 3kW. Multiply that out and you need in excess of 3 million people all plugging in and charging at full rate to see a rise in demand of 10GW.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

What percentage of total users do you think this would be?

The maximum load of a 13amp plug is 3kW. Multiply that out and you need in excess of 3 million people all plugging in and charging at full rate to see a rise in demand of 10GW.

Quite a few times I have seen the pumped storage being used on cold winter evenings . That is an emergency back up for when the grid is at a maximum load & can only supply an extra few GW for a few hours . And the few hours is not enough for a car charger which might need over 10 hours .
At times like that , even an extra 3 GW , [ 1 million plug ins ] is enough for the grid to start load shedding .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

A lot of people with smaller EVs will just use a 13Amp plug in charger because , even with the subsidy, a Smart Home charger is a lot of money .
And how many others with " Smart " chargers will figure out to just use a plug in knowing that they would not get their car charged up otherwise when the demand on the grid is high .

The challenge you bring up here is about spreading the demand, to prevent the peak demand exceeding capacity.
Smart chargers are one potential solution to this, but as you say people's mentality will see them look to avoid or attempt to work around this.
This is evident in the continued messaging on social guidance at the moment, which is being ignored by a lot - so I fear that people will be even less inclined to follow this guidance when it comes to protecting the electricity supply across the country.

However, we are not there yet. There are (approx.) .25 million EVs at the moment, so there is a little bit of time to address this. So why not look at the other end of the charging system - namely the car itself.
If the 'smart' part of the charging system was integrated into the car, then the cars could be used to manage the load on the grid. Those cars that require a little charge, or are not required for a few hours, can charge at a reduced capacity or at a later time from when they are plugged in.
Those that need the highest rate of charge, or are due to be used in a short amount of time, can then be prioritised on the grid to fulfil the requirement.

There's even a chance for car manufacturers to monetise this - drivers could be offered the chance to pay a premium for a higher priority on the grid.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

The challenge you bring up here is about spreading the demand, to prevent the peak demand exceeding capacity.
Smart chargers are one potential solution to this, but as you say people's mentality will see them look to avoid or attempt to work around this.
This is evident in the continued messaging on social guidance at the moment, which is being ignored by a lot - so I fear that people will be even less inclined to follow this guidance when it comes to protecting the electricity supply across the country.

However, we are not there yet. There are (approx.) .25 million EVs at the moment, so there is a little bit of time to address this. So why not look at the other end of the charging system - namely the car itself.
If the 'smart' part of the charging system was integrated into the car, then the cars could be used to manage the load on the grid. Those cars that require a little charge, or are not required for a few hours, can charge at a reduced capacity or at a later time from when they are plugged in.
Those that need the highest rate of charge, or are due to be used in a short amount of time, can then be prioritised on the grid to fulfil the requirement.

There's even a chance for car manufacturers to monetise this - drivers could be offered the chance to pay a premium for a higher priority on the grid.

From about 10 years ago it was admitted that the spare capacity on the grid had fallen to the lowest level for a very long time .[ Shutting down old power stations & not building new ones etc ]

This is why the idea of smart meters came about , so that they could shut down individual customers rather than whole sections of the grid when the overloads happen .
But other than the smart meters , [ which a large amount of people do not want ],& can only shut down , there is no way to control it so that some will still get power when the RoCoF controls automatically shut the grid .

So , if you want to get to work in your EV , buy a large generator .

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

So , if you want to get to work in your EV , buy a large generator .

[grantp]

From everything I have read so far one of the factors that seems to influence the EV manufacturers is how to manage (or not manage in some cases) the charging regime for the chosen battery installation to optimise (as the system designers see things) both charging "speed" and battery longevity.

At some point in the future they may find ways to improve battery temperature management, charge rates at the lower end of "remaining charge" and the higher end of "recharging" and how the recharge is managed if one has a smart charger that might be switching on and off based on either grid management requirements or one's personalised preferences for price limits as prices change half hourly. (Assuming that one has a smart home charging unit option.)

If, at some point in the future - maybe a generation or two of developments from now - the issues of recharge rates and battery longevity without designers feeling a need to carefully manage the process - are overcome the perceived problem will go away (providing the solution is not too costly).

At that point any existing old tech transport will likely quickly become obsolete for practical purposes.

Attempting to force that into a 10year development period may prove to be counterproductive in terms of the best ultimate solution. It way also be impossible after a pandemic driven recession but that's a different discussion.

All of the challenges - for engineering and for the users - can be more readily resolved by an on demand hire as you go service. All, that is, except the human preference for "personalising" things but it shouldn't be too difficult to beat that "need" out of people in the future world.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the personal transport manufacturing industry when the first world has enforced electrification and the Rest of the World is not in a position to do so and thus, presumably, well still seek to function with ICE power in some form. Will the loss of economy of scale, for both vehicles an fuel supply, allow ICE to be affordable for those places?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

So , if you want to get to work in your EV , buy a large generator .

In seriousness, it helps to break down the two questions that need to be answered before a full transition to EV use can be achieved. It also helps to set out a few fundamentals, and recognise assumptions made.

Fundamentals:
A) Energy can not be used or created, it can only be transferred.
B) Power is the rate of transfer of energy.

With these fundamentals in mind, the two questions are:
Q1 - Does the UK National Grid have enough capacity to convert (supply) the energy required by UK motorists?
Q2 - Does the UK National Grid have enough capacity to transfer that energy as required by UK motorists?

Q1:
Assumption - Vehicle use will not increase in UK society.
The National Grid can currently meet a demand of 45GW from reliable sources (wood, fossil fuel, nuclear), which amounts to a total daily capacity of >1,000 GWh per day.
Over the past 6 years, the highest average demand (over a quarter) on the national grid has been 38.1GW, which leaves an average of 6.9GW of supply available, or spare capacity of 165.6GWh per day.
The total amount of miles driven in the UK amounts to an average of <20 miles per day, per car.
Some current EV models are using approximately 0.253 kWh per mile, or just over 5kWh per day. Extrapolating this out to 32.5 million cars means that a total of just under 165 GWh per day is required if all journeys in the UK were conducted with an EV of similar range and capacity of Nissan Leaf or Tesla 3.
The spare energy capacity of supplies to the grid is able (just) to meet the requirements of all journeys in the UK being completed with EVs.

Q2:
As with existing ICE cars, not all the energy store has to be replenished continuously. Individuals only fill up their tanks when they are running low, and the forecourt is open. The same is true of EV use – it is just carried out differently because it is a plug-in and forget process.
It has already been demonstrated that the supplies to the national grid can meet the average requirement for energy. However, the rate of transfer needs to be addressed.
Not all journeys are carried out spread throughout the year, day or even month. Even though the average car only covers 20 miles per day, it does so at a typical rate of between 30 and 70 miles per hour (dependant on circumstances). What this does mean is that across the whole of the UK, cars spend most of their time stationary therefore not requiring a supply of energy.
In order to meet the overall energy requirements, measures are required to spread the power demand. Several options exist for this, including smart metering and smart charging. It must also be recognised that EVs can be charged at the workplace, commercial centre or other locations.
It is true that if all cars in the UK were EV, and they all tried to charge at the same time, the power capacity of the national grid would not meet this need. It is also probably true that in winter months, the power capacity of the national grid may not meet the power requirements of all UK drivers.
It is in these areas of distribution, peak demand and storage of energy that focus is required to ensure that EVs can be supported in the future.

In summary – the UK National Grid can supply enough energy for all cars in the UK to switch to EV, however there is work required to meet the power demand. Seasonal factors will affect this, and storage of energy when demand is low is likely to be required.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

In seriousness, it helps to break down the two questions that need to be answered before a full transition to EV use can be achieved. It also helps to set out a few fundamentals, and recognise assumptions made.

Fundamentals:
A) Energy can not be used or created, it can only be transferred.
B) Power is the rate of transfer of energy.

With these fundamentals in mind, the two questions are:
Q1 - Does the UK National Grid have enough capacity to convert (supply) the energy required by UK motorists?
Q2 - Does the UK National Grid have enough capacity to transfer that energy as required by UK motorists?

Q1:
Assumption - Vehicle use will not increase in UK society.
The National Grid can currently meet a demand of 45GW from reliable sources (wood, fossil fuel, nuclear), which amounts to a total daily capacity of >1,000 GWh per day.
Over the past 6 years, the highest average demand (over a quarter) on the national grid has been 38.1GW, which leaves an average of 6.9GW of supply available, or spare capacity of 165.6GWh per day.
The total amount of miles driven in the UK amounts to an average of <20 miles per day, per car.
Some current EV models are using approximately 0.253 kWh per mile, or just over 5kWh per day. Extrapolating this out to 32.5 million cars means that a total of just under 165 GWh per day is required if all journeys in the UK were conducted with an EV of similar range and capacity of Nissan Leaf or Tesla 3.
The spare energy capacity of supplies to the grid is able (just) to meet the requirements of all journeys in the UK being completed with EVs.

Q2:
As with existing ICE cars, not all the energy store has to be replenished continuously. Individuals only fill up their tanks when they are running low, and the forecourt is open. The same is true of EV use – it is just carried out differently because it is a plug-in and forget process.
It has already been demonstrated that the supplies to the national grid can meet the average requirement for energy. However, the rate of transfer needs to be addressed.
Not all journeys are carried out spread throughout the year, day or even month. Even though the average car only covers 20 miles per day, it does so at a typical rate of between 30 and 70 miles per hour (dependant on circumstances). What this does mean is that across the whole of the UK, cars spend most of their time stationary therefore not requiring a supply of energy.
In order to meet the overall energy requirements, measures are required to spread the power demand. Several options exist for this, including smart metering and smart charging. It must also be recognised that EVs can be charged at the workplace, commercial centre or other locations.
It is true that if all cars in the UK were EV, and they all tried to charge at the same time, the power capacity of the national grid would not meet this need. It is also probably true that in winter months, the power capacity of the national grid may not meet the power requirements of all UK drivers.
It is in these areas of distribution, peak demand and storage of energy that focus is required to ensure that EVs can be supported in the future.

In summary – the UK National Grid can supply enough energy for all cars in the UK to switch to EV, however there is work required to meet the power demand. Seasonal factors will affect this, and storage of energy when demand is low is likely to be required.

While I can see that you have spent a lot of time trying to make your point , the " one size fits all " idea does not work .

There are something like 1 million company cars in the UK , which ,on average do well over twice the daily mileage of private cars .
There are very large numbers of drivers who have 2 or more cars , and their daily mileage is therefore over twice the figure you are using for your idea .
Large numbers of second cars do not do very much mileage at all ,which means that the main daily car is doing most of the driving .
So , in reality , even if you could get everybody to space out their charging so that they don,t all plug in together , the total demand at a lot of times would still be far more than what the grid can deliver .

Unless we are going back to the idea that you can only drive in the Summer , when they decide they can allow you to charge up your car once every few weeks .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

While I can see that you have spent a lot of time trying to make your point , the " one size fits all " idea does not work .

There are something like 1 million company cars in the UK , which ,on average do well over twice the daily mileage of private cars .
There are very large numbers of drivers who have 2 or more cars , and their daily mileage is therefore over twice the figure you are using for your idea .
Large numbers of second cars do not do very much mileage at all ,which means that the main daily car is doing most of the driving .
So , in reality , even if you could get everybody to space out their charging so that they don,t all plug in together , the total demand at a lot of times would still be far more than what the grid can deliver .

Yes - I agree that not all car use is the same.
But the overall requirement for enough energy to cover the cumulative mileage is the same.
Of the current 32.5 million ICE cars on the road, some are used more, some are used less. But that also means that those used more are also filled up more. Those used less, filled up less.
This transfers over to EV use, where second cars etc. will cover less mileage, and therefore require less charging.

Regardless of what fuel source, the requirement remains of supplying enough energy for every car in the UK to cover an average of 20 miles per day.

Company cars, as one of the highest mileage types, lend themselves well to a balanced load share on the grid. Fleets can charge throughout the day and night, but there may be a requirement to change habits. Perhaps business-owned cars may be exchanged through their use - 9 hrs use (legal limit for business driving hours) and then 15hrs charge time?

The underlying fact remains - the national grid has enough capacity to meet the energy requirements of all cars in the UK if they switch to EV, but work needs to be done to meet the power requirements, particularly against seasonal fluctuations.

The situation is not as dire as some make out though. The solutions may not be easy, and will probably require a combination of improvements to technology, changing habits, and possibly restrictions over the 'freedom' drivers currently have. But the future is positive, supplying the energy requirements of EVs is possible, and is far from the ludicrous suggestion of only being able to charge every few weeks!

[Mike Bell]

From memory the latest Leaf can transfer its stored battery energy to the grid if required and if plugged in to an appropriate charger. I can programme my car via phone app to charge at a specific time if required......

[justracing]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

So , if you want to get to work in your EV , buy a large generator .

Preferably petrol driven!

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

From memory the latest Leaf can transfer its stored battery energy to the grid if required and if plugged in to an appropriate charger. I can programme my car via phone app to charge at a specific time if required......

Yes, the solutions already exist for the majority of the issues. It's just the seasonal demand on the grid that is the biggest challenge to overcome.

[midgetman]

Actually the purchase of a large generator isn't that stupid. Local communities could build their own charging points.powered by a commercial sized diesel generator. The pollution of one controlled generator providing power for, say, fifty or sixty cars is surely much less than those ICE cars would generate on their own.

I've no figures to back this up, I'm nowhere near clever enough. You may be able to shoot this down as a stupid idea. But suffice to say life is going to *have* to change. We need to think out of the box and transitional stages will be needed. This could be a starting point.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[Mike Bell]

VW have experimental mobile chargers, but they are power banks rather than ICE powered Generators. https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fle...-in-17-minutes

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

VW have experimental mobile chargers, but they are power banks rather than ICE powered Generators. https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/fle...-in-17-minutes

Provided they can hold the charge for a period of weeks, they can contribute to levelling out the demand during peak periods.

Just the sort of innovation that may prove essential.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Provided they can hold the charge for a period of weeks, they can contribute to levelling out the demand during peak periods.

Just the sort of innovation that may prove essential.

And expensive.

As will be building 6x nominal wind power capacity needs (at least) if the world needs to rely on wind generation at night (especially in a Northern Hemisphere winter) to full fill demand.

If the future really is that bad, ecologically, we end up facing the question about how to afford the solution whilst still supporting something vaguely close to the sort of life experience most humans might continue to wish for.

If it is not affordable in economic terms that it probably doesn't not matter much whether humanity's decline is instigated by self induced "Climate Change" or the unaffordable "solution" to it.

Maybe just go with the "dark ages" and step back 1000 years?

It has been done before.

[Tel 911S]

Battery storage is very expensive . Musks £60 million S Australia ,[biggest battery in the world] , would keep the UK grid going for about 12 seconds before it was totally drained .
So it is much cheaper for the UK grid if they can convince car owners to go EV ,so that they can use the car batteries as storage & to supply the grid when demand is high .

[morninggents]

I'm quite ignorant of electrical matters generally (I keep away from it - it can kill you) so please forgive me if this is a daft question. Do modern batteries loose their charge over time if not used/recharged? If they do, what is the full discharge period?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by morninggents

I'm quite ignorant of electrical matters generally (I keep away from it - it can kill you) so please forgive me if this is a daft question. Do modern batteries loose their charge over time if not used/recharged? If they do, what is the full discharge period?

Estimated self-discharge rates:

Primary lithium-metal - 10% in 5 years

Alkaline - 2–3% per year (7-10 years shelf life)

Lead-acid - 5% per month

Nickel-based - 10–15% in 24h, then 10-15% per month

Lithium-ion - 5% in 24h, then 1–2% per month (plus 3% for safety circuit)

'The self-discharge of all battery chemistries increases at higher temperature, and the rate typically doubles with every 10°C (18°F). A noticeable energy loss occurs if a battery is left in a hot vehicle. High cycle count and aging also increase self-discharge of all systems. Nickel-metal-hydride is good for 300–400 cycles, whereas the standard nickel-cadmium lasts for over 1,000 cycles before elevated self-discharge starts interfering with performance.'

'Under normal circumstances the self-discharge of Li-ion is reasonably steady throughout its service life; however, full state-of-charge and elevated temperature cause an increase. These same factors also affect longevity. Furthermore, a fully charged Li-ion is more prone to failure than one that is partially charged.'

[grantp]

Originally Posted by morninggents

I'm quite ignorant of electrical matters generally (I keep away from it - it can kill you) so please forgive me if this is a daft question. Do modern batteries loose their charge over time if not used/recharged? If they do, what is the full discharge period?

It depends on what you read and what the battery technology is.

Also whether they are attached to anything that might require some sort to of low level consumption anyway.

A further consideration with some technology is whether it suffers from long term discharged storage or maybe has its like shortened by long term trickle charging/lack of use.

Another traditional battery killer, for rechargeable batteries, is how they are used. Heavy charge/discharge cycles, for example, can be very detrimental for some applications of the technologies but less so for others.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by morninggents

I'm quite ignorant of electrical matters generally (I keep away from it - it can kill you) so please forgive me if this is a daft question. Do modern batteries loose their charge over time if not used/recharged? If they do, what is the full discharge period?

https://www.lifewire.com/why-do-car-...go-dead-534855

Very cold weather can also be bad for batteries , losing about 20% of their energy if the temp gets down to freezing .
Which is why , if you are storing a car battery , it should not be on a cold floor or metal shelf .

But in a car , [ ECU Immobiliser Clock etc ], or connected to anything electronic , there is a slight continuous load which will drain it down over time, but along with temp , it is very difficult to say how long .