[Driver] Carlos Pace

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A hypothetical question. Could Carlos Pace have won a championship had he not been killed in 1977?

Firstly, a history of his career:

Following three consecutive Brazilian national championships and a strong season in Formula 3, Pace was picked up by Frank Williams for a season in Formula 2 in 1971, and then raced for his team in Formula 1 in 1972. Driving a March, Pace beat teammate Henri Pescarolo in only his second race, picking up a point for sixth at Jarama, and from 11th on the grid he finished fifth at Nivelles. Pace failed to score a point again in 1972, but he was consistently quicker than Pescarolo and left the team before the end of the year to join Surtees.

Pace made his debut for Surtees, a more competitive team, in 1973, with a strong teammate in Mike Hailwood. In his second race, Pace qualified sixth in Interlagos and ran in the points before retiring. Early in the season, Hailwood had the slight edge, but Pace gained the upper hand in the second half of the season, finishing an impressive fourth in the Nurburgring and going one better in the Osterreichring, with his maiden podium finish. Pace qualified fifth in Monza but suffered a brake failure, and ended the season 11th in the championship, having suffered with poor reliability but established himself as a future star.

In 1974, Carlos Pace continued to drive for Surtees, and was quicker than teammate Jochen Mass, finishing fourth at Interlagos, and qualifying an excellent second in Kyalami before a slow start. However, he struggled with multiple mechanical failures and quit the team as a result after Anderstorp. Pace was signed for Brabham from Brands Hatch, after failing to qualify in a privateer Brabham at Dijon.

Carlos Pace took a couple of races to get going with Brabham, but then qualified fourth at the Osterreichring and ran second until a fuel leak put him out. Pace qualified third, right behind team leader Reutemann, at Monza but finished fifth. Then he qualified fourth at Watkins Glen, and Brabham dominated the race as he followed Reutemann home for a second position, giving him 12th in the championship. He had also set fastest lap at both Monza and Watkins Glen.

The Brabham team continued to run Reutemann and Pace in 1975 and a first win didn’t look far away when Pace ran second at Buenos Aires and briefly took the lead from his teammate before spinning. That win came at Interlagos, as Pace ran third at the start, overtook Reutemann, and then benefitted from a retirement from leader Jarier to take his first career victory at his home race. Pace immediately followed this with pole at Kyalami, but he dropped three positions and finished fourth. Pace then ran second in Montjuic but crashed in avoidance of leader Rolf Stommelen. With another podium finish in Monaco, Pace ran second in the championship after five rounds and could easily have been leading it.

Carlos Pace’s impressive start to the season continued in Zolder where he led the race but fell away with handling problems, and had a quieter run of races before Silverstone, where he led for a time and ran second before crashing in the late storm, but was still classified there for another podium. The final four races of the season were quieter as Pace failed to score another point, but he still qualified second at the Nordschleife before a puncture and finished the season sixth in the championship, beaten by just 13 points by Carlos Reutemann, as Brabham claimed second in the constructors’ championship.

For 1976, Brabham switched to an Alfa Romeo engine and had a far less competitive season. His only points finishes were sixth in Jarama, fourth in Paul Ricard, where he qualified fifth, and fourth at the Nordschleife, where he qualified seventh. Third on the grid at Monza was also a standout result but Pace retired with an engine failure, but he was never in contention for a race victory. It must be said that during the season, Pace was generally faster than Carlos Reutemann, and whilst it wasn’t his teammate’s best season it was still extremely impressive considering his relative inexperience.

The Brabham was more competitive in 1977 and, after teammate John Watson had suspension problems, Carlos Pace took the lead at Buenos Aires and looked set to win before struggling with heat and losing out to Jody Scheckter. The next race came at his home track, Interlagos, and Pace made a great start to take the lead from fifth before retiring. He then qualified on the front row at Kyalami but dropped away, and it proved to be his final race in Formula 1 as he was killed in an aircraft accident two weeks later. It cut short an extremely promising career that should have yielded far more success.


So over his first two and a half seasons with Brabham, Pace got gradually closer to Reutemann until in 1976, he was generally better than him. This page shows the results of the two Brabham drivers and how Pace gained the upper hand over his final season: https://www.statsf1.com/en/carlos-re...rlos-pace.aspx

So while Reutemann was clearly not having his best season in 1976, it seems reasonable that Pace could have been as good as him at this time, and considering it was his fifth season, Pace had probably just reached his peak. Then in 1977 he looked to be outperforming John Watson in the same car before his death. So I would suggest that he would have beaten Watson over the season and would have been kept on alongside Niki Lauda in 1978.

If Pace had stuck with Brabham through their difficult 1979 season, he would have been armed with one of the fastest cars in 1980 and 1981. Given Pace beat Reutemann in 1976, it seems very likely he would have beaten him in 1981 once Reutemann was 39, and Piquet was still inexperienced when he won the championship. If anything, I think the Brabham was quicker than the Williams at this time, so I suspect Carlos Pace, had he still been driving for Brabham, would have won the 1981 championship if he had not died, and possibly 1980 too, as Piquet was definitely not at his best at this time.

I thought it was an interesting question, considering Pace is not generally mentioned among the lost talents of F1 history, but perhaps he should be. I would be interested to know what others think.