2020 Silly Season

[S griffin]

By the same token though look at Gasly. He couldn’t match Max in the same car. Shows the driver is still very important

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by S griffin

By the same token though look at Gasly. He couldn’t match Max in the same car. Shows the driver is still very important

That's generally what happens when there is either a clear no.1 driver, or, the 2nd driver isn't quick enough. in gasly's case it was somewhere between the 2.

Albon proved that inspite of far less experience of F1 cars, compared to the Frenchman, he had the confidence to push on, certainly in race situations. This is what Gasly wasn't able to deliver. That equalling of Max's qualy time at Suzuka, or all places, was a real marker.

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by S griffin

If Hamilton leaves Merc or F1 there could have be a seat there. Are you saying he’s not good enough to go there?

Max is of course good enough to go there but for my part, im taking Max's re-signing as confirmation that LH will be with Merc for a couple of more years.

Originally Posted by E.B

I daresay that going into the new regulations in 2021, Newey and his cohorts will have a lot more influence on the results than Max will. Max is only as good as the car under him allows, and the engine that powers him.

fair point. with aero levels seemingly set to be reduced, history would suggest that Newey and co are the team you want looking for ways to claw back that reduction in downforce/play around with the underside of the car.

maybe we (certainly me anyways) are trying to be too clever in figuring out why Max is staying...maybe its just as simple as he thinks RB will have the best car?

[Casper]

Originally Posted by S griffin

If Hamilton leaves Merc or F1 there could have be a seat there. Are you saying he’s not good enough to go there?

That is not the argument, while all the other drivers in the other two teams don't move he has nowhere to go and he knew it so he was forced into signing for RB whether he wanted to or not. It may even be a case of if there was a vacancy he would not have moved anyway but that is pure speculation on my part. Whether he is good enough is beside the point.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by E.B

Put him in a Williams, Haas, STR etc and he isnt going to win short of all others in better cars dropping out.

you do know Max did already drive for STR and scored 2 4th place finishes??

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

you do know Max did already drive for STR and scored 2 4th place finishes??

Yes but i'm sure you will also know that these things are only possible occasionally!

It ought to be said that the STR back then was better than the current version in comparison to the leading cars, and considerably more so than a current Haas or Williams.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by chunterer

Yes but i'm sure you will also know that these things are only possible occasionally!

It ought to be said that the STR back then was better than the current version in comparison to the leading cars, and considerably more so than a current Haas or Williams.

Then why was Sainz highest finish 7th that season?

and why did Sainz have 31 points less?

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

Then why was Sainz highest finish 7th that season?

and why did Sainz have 31 points less?

7th in such a car is still pretty good!

Max was very much the favourite for Marko right from the off though it has to be said.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by chunterer

7th in such a car is still pretty good!

Max was very much the favourite for Marko right from the off though it has to be said.

sure, when Max finishes 4th twice it was a good car, when Sainz can't manage more than 7th that's rather good for that car?

also Max had 1 year of F3 before F1 and Sainz already had 5 years of single seaters

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

sure, when Max finishes 4th twice it was a good car, when Sainz can't manage more than 7th that's rather good for that car?

also Max had 1 year of F3 before F1 and Sainz already had 5 years of single seaters

It's good for any driver to do well in second string machinery is it not?

Because it hardly ever happens these days.

We cannot divert from the fact that you are not going to win races in a Toro Rosso (whoever you are) unless the stars align over Monza in September 2008.

[Casper]

So we all agree that Max had no option but to sign with RB? Good I am glad that is settled because that is the situation for the drivers in all the top teams as well. It will take a retirement from those ranks to change anything so who is going to retire first? Hamilton reckons he is not going anywhere for some years so Vettel must be the obvious candidate. If he goes then Ricciardo to take his spot??

The F1 driver's market has changed over the years due to the huge amounts of money they are paid in the top teams and they now hang around a lot longer than used to be the case preventing new blood coming through into a reduced number of cars. Is that a good or bad thing, I don't know to tell the truth.

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by Casper

The F1 driver's market has changed over the years due to the huge amounts of money they are paid in the top teams and they now hang around a lot longer than used to be the case preventing new blood coming through into a reduced number of cars. Is that a good or bad thing, I don't know to tell the truth.

interesting point...for sure the increase pay packages is an incentive for the older guys to keep going. the cars relatively being easier to drive then car from prior eras and safety (to put it nicely) also means longer competitive careers.

that said, this is just a problem at the sharp end as we just had the youngest average aged grid in history.

Originally Posted by Casper

If he goes then Ricciardo to take his spot??

just my opinion (and perhaps a bit contradictory to my above statement), but i worried Renault has ruined Ric's career or maybe he ruined it himself by going there in the first place.

maybe Renault comes up with something special (i doubt it though), but Ric is there for 2020, probably there for 2021, and if/when he starts looking around for 2022 he will be 33-34 and will have some much younger hot shoes behind him.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

just my opinion (and perhaps a bit contradictory to my above statement), but i worried Renault has ruined Ric's career or maybe he ruined it himself by going there in the first place.

I have thought the same.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/14...sults-revealed

From link above (team bosses ranking drivers)

	DRIVER			POINTS	CHANGE
1.	Lewis Hamilton		169	-
2.	Max Verstappen		146	-
3.	Charles Leclerc		124	Up 3
4.	Valtteri Bottas		68	Up 4
5.	Sebastian Vettel	58	Down 2
6.	Alex Albon		57	New entry
7.	Carlos Sainz Jr		55	New entry
8.	Daniel Ricciardo	49	Down 3
9.	George Russell		41	New entry
10.	Lando Norris		38	New entry

Of course, these things are dynamic and if you perform you can bounce back. But will Renault in 2020 and beyond provide the car to allow him to stand out (same points you make as well).

Richard

[Casper]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

just my opinion (and perhaps a bit contradictory to my above statement), but i worried Renault has ruined Ric's career or maybe he ruined it himself by going there in the first place.

I agree with you but because the driver market is so static at the top he found himself in a similar position to Verstappen but did not want to play second fiddle to someone who came in after him and was a lot younger. Verstappen has made RB his team and Ricciardo could see that, did not like it and Renault dangled their cheque book in front of his nose.

Some say that happened as pay back to Horner for all the criticism Renault copped when they were RB's engine supplier but the truth of that won't surface until biographies are written. In the end Ricciardo took the pragmatic decision to take the money and drop down the grid which to me says it all, I am what I am but the bank balance is looking good, Kimi I suspect made the same choice. I think they are very close in their reason for racing in that they are both racers first and foremost and the burning desire to win is not as great as some of the others.

All speculation but it's my speculation and I like it.

[E.B]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

you do know Max did already drive for STR and scored 2 4th place finishes??

My point regarding the lower ranked cars not capable of winning unless of major retirements, regardless of who is driving still stands.

I rate Max highly as a driver, but he aint supernatural.

[E.B]

Originally Posted by steve nielsen

sure, when Max finishes 4th twice it was a good car, when Sainz can't manage more than 7th that's rather good for that car?

Stats often shield the truth..... one of those 4th places Max was behind his teamate (Sainz) until Sainz had a car failure.

[peterelise]

Originally Posted by Casper

I agree with you but because the driver market is so static at the top he found himself in a similar position to Verstappen but did not want to play second fiddle to someone who came in after him and was a lot younger. Verstappen has made RB his team and Ricciardo could see that, did not like it and Renault dangled their cheque book in front of his nose.



Some say that happened as pay back to Horner for all the criticism Renault copped when they were RB's engine supplier but the truth of that won't surface until biographies are written. In the end Ricciardo took the pragmatic decision to take the money and drop down the grid which to me says it all, I am what I am but the bank balance is looking good, Kimi I suspect made the same choice. I think they are very close in their reason for racing in that they are both racers first and foremost and the burning desire to win is not as great as some of the others.



All speculation but it's my speculation and I like it.

The RIC decision from summer 2018 seems pretty straightforward to me. Justifiably thought Red Bull wouldn’t have a car capable of winning the championship, was feeling like RB wanted to focus on VES anyway, and there was one alternate seat available that paid top dollar (more than RB apparently) for two years until the next round of top drives came up for grabs. In addition, there was no doubt a hope that Renault got their act together and may themselves become a contender. Issue for him was/is to make sure that he was still viewed as a top driver by the time teams are signing drivers for 2021 in the event Renault were still mid-fielders.

He has one more year to prove he still has it. In my view he comfortably beat Hulk but the team bosses poll shows that despite that, his star has fallen a little. He will need to handle Ocon comfortably to be in with a shot for one of the top teams (or maybe Renault themselves can come good such that he wants to stay there). Even if he has a great year, my suspicion is that Mercedes will be more inclined to partner HAM with their next young star in RUS so the main seat for RIC is to hope Ferrari think they can have a better and more harmonious combination with RIC and LEC partnered than they have had with VET (and that is definitely my view - I think RIC is better than VET and his time with VES shows he can get along with a highly talented team mate). If OCO matches or beats RIC by the time 2021 seats are being signed, then RIC’s chances of a top drive would appear to be over.


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[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by Casper

...I think they are very close in their reason for racing in that they are both racers first and foremost and the burning desire to win is not as great as some of the others.

All speculation but it's my speculation and I like it.

i think thats a fair distinction. some people love racing and are very competitive about it but they just dont make winning their everything.

i think we typically look at those drivers as the ruthless ones (Senna, Schumi, Alonso, and Hammy to some extent, and Max is well on his way to it).

Originally Posted by peterelise

...Even if he has a great year, my suspicion is that Mercedes will be more inclined to partner HAM with their next young star in RUS so the main seat for RIC is to hope Ferrari think they can have a better and more harmonious combination with RIC and LEC partnered than they have had with VET (and that is definitely my view - I think RIC is better than VET and his time with VES shows he can get along with a highly talented team mate). If OCO matches or beats RIC by the time 2021 seats are being signed, then RIC’s chances of a top drive would appear to be over.

following your line of thought there...

if Russell or Ocon is to take the second Merc seat along side Lewis, where would Bottas go?

i feel like he would be the ideal number 2 at Ferrari...if that happens then Ric has even less options to move up the grid.

[peterelise]

Bottas too has demonstrated a great ability to work harmoniously with a stronger team mate so that will be a plus for him if Ferrari are considering a team mate for Leclerc who won’t play dirty.

If I was the boss, I would choose Ricciardo over Bottas for a range of reasons including that I think he is a better racer (acknowledging that making that type of assessment can only be subjective when they haven’t been in the same equipment).


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[chunterer]

Riccardo won't want to be no.2 again like he was at Bull.

Bottas will fit the bill perfectly, Checo would be another one.

[steve nielsen]

Originally Posted by E.B

Stats often shield the truth..... one of those 4th places Max was behind his teamate (Sainz) until Sainz had a car failure.

No he was NOT, in Hungary Sainz qualified 12th where Max qualified 9th, and Sainz retired on lap 60 when he was behind Max(Max just behind the lead group), at COTA Sainz finished 7th

[Born Racer]

Originally Posted by peterelise

The RIC decision from summer 2018 seems pretty straightforward to me. Justifiably thought Red Bull wouldn’t have a car capable of winning the championship, was feeling like RB wanted to focus on VES anyway, and there was one alternate seat available that paid top dollar (more than RB apparently) for two years until the next round of top drives came up for grabs. In addition, there was no doubt a hope that Renault got their act together and may themselves become a contender. Issue for him was/is to make sure that he was still viewed as a top driver by the time teams are signing drivers for 2021 in the event Renault were still mid-fielders.

He has one more year to prove he still has it. In my view he comfortably beat Hulk but the team bosses poll shows that despite that, his star has fallen a little. He will need to handle Ocon comfortably to be in with a shot for one of the top teams (or maybe Renault themselves can come good such that he wants to stay there). Even if he has a great year, my suspicion is that Mercedes will be more inclined to partner HAM with their next young star in RUS so the main seat for RIC is to hope Ferrari think they can have a better and more harmonious combination with RIC and LEC partnered than they have had with VET (and that is definitely my view - I think RIC is better than VET and his time with VES shows he can get along with a highly talented team mate). If OCO matches or beats RIC by the time 2021 seats are being signed, then RIC’s chances of a top drive would appear to be over.


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Happy new year, everyone.

I think those are fair points. Ultimately, teams have data at their disposal to judge, but in Formula 1, you can quickly be forgotten as an upcoming star if you spend a time mired in the midfield. It is often all about perception and you go from being a "potential champion" to a "strong midfield driver', good on their day, like Hülkenberg may have become branded.

[S griffin]

Thanks BR. I think this could be a make or break year for some. Certainly there are some that have found themselves solidly in the midfield. They have been plenty that have looked good lower down the formulae that have been stuck in a rut. For me though Hulkenberg should have had a better opportunity, even if he wasn’t quite on a par with the best of them

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

Max is of course good enough to go there but for my part, im taking Max's re-signing as confirmation that LH will be with Merc for a couple of more years.

If Hamilton wants to equal and beat Schumi's record of 7 WDCs, he needs to be with Merc for at least 2 years, or possibly more if he can't do it by 2021. However, if he does do it by 2021, that's when he might hang up his helmet and driving gloves.

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

If Hamilton wants to equal and beat Schumi's record of 7 WDCs, he needs to be with Merc for at least 2 years, or possibly more if he can't do it by 2021. However, if he does do it by 2021, that's when he might hang up his helmet and driving gloves.

Part of me thinks he's going to get caught up in the romance of beating Schumacher's WDC record in a Ferrari.