Counterfactual History Discussion Thread

[jab]

OK, now the silly season has pretty much finished, we have a week to go before the first practice session with little to discuss. Not that that plays a role - this is still something I want to discuss

So, there it is - counterfactual history. The idea of saying "well what if X, Y and Z had happened?" Completely trivial and pointless but at the same time entertaining and interesting - it is often here that some real gems about what would've happened come out (e.g. the Gilles Villeneuve to McLaren in 83 legend, Peterson to McLaren in 79, Bellof possibly to Ferrari in 86 etc)

I'd prefer to avoid the typical examples that come up in threads like this, specifically the old "how many world titles would Senna have won had he not died?", because that invariably leads to someone saying he would've won about 20 million, and it's been done to death (no pun intended). I hope we can discuss some more interesting ones that don't involve the great romantic figures of racing and focusing on more interesting examples, perhaps some relevant to today so that it is not totally pointless (as they can often prove a point), such as my first example:

---------------

It is 2006. Fernando Alonso has already agreed to drive for McLaren in 2007. This means that one of the team's "dream team" of drivers of Raikkonen and Montoya will have to make way. It is thought that Raikkonen will be the one to move, taking the retiring Schumacher's seat at Ferrari, but Montoya is restless as well. He hasn't gelled at McLaren and thinks it's probably best to get out while he can

In reality, he went to talk to his old CART boss Chip Ganassi, who offered him a drive in NASCAR, and the rest is history. But, things could have been different...

What if he had been approached by Dietrich Materschitz and Christian Horner, offering him a drive with Red Bull in 2007? The team were known to be after a stronger line-up, as witnessed by the fact that they went on to sign Mark Webber, and also signed Adrian Newey from McLaren. They also expressed interest in Montoya at the time and was in fact the Colombian's rumoured destination until the shock CGR announcement was made just after the US GP, which led to Montoya's dismissal from McLaren due to violation of a clause in his contract that he was not to reveal his destination for the following year before the end of the season

So what if, instead of heading across the Atlantic, he'd signed for F1's "cool" team? This raises a lot of interesting questions about the direction of the team and the other drivers

- There is now an extra driver on the 2007 grid to what there was in reality. How will that shake up the grid?

- In particular, what happens to Mark Webber? He didn't sign with Red Bull until the summer, having lost his Williams drive when the Grove team let his option lapse and instead signed Alex Wurz, believed to be for financial reasons rather than performance. Webber was linked to a Renault drive due to his management deal with Briatore. Of course Renault went on to sign Kovalainen after earlier extending Fisichella's deal for another year. So where is Webber's destination? Surely too good a driver to sit out the season - this was the year when he challenged Alonso and Raikkonen at Monaco in one of the worst Williamses ever built - but there are/were not many other available seats with Montoya taking "his" (considering which drivers already had 2007 contracts at this point). A suggestion - could this lead to a change of tack at Renault with Webber and Kovalainen driving and Fisi elsewhere? Or how about Webber moving to McLaren and Lewis taking the seat it was originally considered he should take - at Spyker?

- What about DC? He is known not to get along with Montoya, who took his McLaren drive. Would he stomach a season or 2 with him or would he just call it a day a couple of years early?

- What effect does this have on the team's future dealings? Or, to put it another way, where does Sebastian Vettel come into this? Presumably he would still replace DC, but what if DC went early? As you can see, it's getting more complicated

- And how does this affect the "future" of F1? Red Bull gradually became stronger over 2007 and 2008, before launching their first title challenge last year? Would having Montoya onboard change that? Would he, with race-winning experience, have led the challenge last year instead of Vettel, for instance? Would he have done a better job and proven to be a stronger opponent to Button in that situation? Or would he have just crashed more? Would he even have lasted that long before getting sacked? So many questions...

I will post my thoughts later

Oh and without wanting to be cheeky or anything, I'd love it if someone could do some photoshopping...

[ECW Dan Selby]

I'd like to do some photoshopping for this. Whilst i'm sure i'm not the most naturally talented here on Photoshop, i'd like to think I can hold my own and lend a hand here if necessary!

I'm away for the weekend but i'd be happy to join in some of the fun and games here when i'm back.

Selby

[bjohnsonsmith]

An alternative universe. This should be interesting, especially the photoshopping.

[Born Racer]

We've been talking about Webber to Renault for years. Let's make it a reality

[Jamesy-18]

What would Vettel look like in a Ferrari outfit? (Hint, hint!) :P

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by Born Racer

We've been talking about Webber to Renault for years. Let's make it a reality

i guess the question would be if Flav would have let this happen. Renault were not going to have a strong year and putting his client in that car would have been bad for his career and thus earning power.

[jab]

OK, here's my take on the Montoya situation, in a sort of timeline:

- Montoya enters negotiations with Red Bull around the same time as with CGR - June 2006. The CGR deal was announced a month later but I don't expect the RBR deal to be announced at the same time. Instead of the instant termination that resulted from the announcement, what happens is McLaren and Montoya mutually agree to part ways during the summer, allowing the Red Bull deal to be announced and Montoya to join the team early, perhaps around Hungary when Webber's deal with the team was announced. Klien is axed, a few races before he was axed in reality

- Meanwhile, with it being clear that the Red Bull line for Webber is closing fast, Briatore decides not to renew Fisichella's contract in June as he did, and instead offers the drive to Webber. The deal is signed and sealed at the same time as Kovalainen's. Fisi is thus the one left with limited options, and eventually chooses to sign for Ferrari as reserve driver for 2007. The rest of the grid remains unchanged

- 2007 proves to be a difficult year for Red Bull with unreliability issues. Montoya is perceived to have been superior to DC (as Webber was) and DC takes the decision to retire, a year earlier than in reality. His replacement is Nelson Piquet Jr - with Alonso and Kovalainen switching, the Alonso/Webber partnership means nowhere for Piquet to fit in, so he is loaned to the Renault-powered team in an all-South American line-up. This causes some controversy due to Liuzzi's replacement by Bourdais and Toro Rosso

- 2008 is an improved year with Montoya scoring good results in the first half of the year but the team goes backwards in the second half of the season. Piquet is nowhere near as unimpressive as at Renault, as he is free from the pressures of Briatore, and picks up better results than Coulthard did that year. But now the impressive Vettel is seemingly ready to step up from Toro Rosso, so what decision is taken? The decision taken is for Vettel to stay, to release Bourdais and replace him with Buemi. Meanwhile, Webber opts to remain at Renault, but there is no race manipulation at Singapore, which will prove crucial, and the team benefits from having 2 good drivers

- In 2009, Red Bull build a rocket for Montoya and Piquet. But Montoya, as de facto number 1, is superior to Piquet, he does not have his team mate taking points off him as Vettel and Webber. Even allowing for the odd extra Montoya-style slip-up or reliability issue, this would theoretically allow him to make a much stronger title challenge, and ultimately take the title and cement his position as one of the best drivers of the decade

- And so Montoya comes into this season as reigning champion. As for elsewhere, it is a further complicated situation. Alonso does make his move to Ferrari but who is to replace him? Firstly, with no problems surrounding Crashgate, Briatore and Symonds are still present. Webber, though frustrated, chooses to remain loyal to his manager and sticks with the team, and he is joined by the impressive Piquet, who has been replaced at Red Bull by Vettel despite decent results in the previous season. Petrov ends up at Campos/HRT alongside Senna

- But this means further knock-on effects - Kubica, for instance, is now out of a drive. And what impact would not winning the title have had on Button's position in the market. The likely scenario is this: Button's value in the driver market plummets, humiliated by throwing away what looked at halfway to be a certain title, and is forced to remain at Mercedes. Instead, the McLaren drive is taken by the available Kubica, who opts to take on Lewis. As for Schumacher, he is left out in the cold, with no comeback for him. Whilst last year would probably have been umpteen times more exciting than it was, 2010 doesn't look as attractive...

2010 line-up:

Red Bull: Montoya/Vettel
Mercedes: Button/Rosberg
McLaren: Hamilton/Kubica
Renault: Webber/Piquet

[Hugh Jarce]

Here's a current 'what if, would' ...

What if Colin Kolles, Karun Chandhok and Bruno Senna hadn't taken the HRT option would they have faced uncontrollable night sweats, fearsome mood swings and only felt in the mood for love once a year?

[chunterer]

Interesting format for a thread here jab!!

I like your thinking very much, most of us (including Knowlesy) will know why that is.

I'm thinking I might like to contribute by taking this back a bit.

Like, what might have not happened for Button had Williams managed to sign Montoya insteasd of farming him out to CART for 1999 and not 2001.....

Would those 2 extra years of F1 for JPM have helped his maturity by the time BMW had come onboard fully, or would Montoya have moved away from Williams before that due to driving uncompetitive equipment?

I also suspect Williams wasn't the only team keen on him....

Mercedes certainly were, so could he have gone there and replaced Hakkinen at McLaren instead of Kim in 2002i? Or would DC have been pushed out for JPM in 99/00 and go to take the no 2 seat at Ferrari that was often mentioned instead of Rubens.....

How different things would've been then!

The other big what if is if JV had signed for Ferrari in the mid 90's and not Schuey. Is it likely that Ferrari would've gone on to achieve what they did? Highly unlikely, but the Tifosi would've been pleased anyway!

[jab]

I've previously considered the whole Button/Montoya situation. You have to wonder what might have happened had Button gone back to Williams at some point instead of moving to/staying at BAR. I personally think that had he moved back in or around 2005, Webber would've beaten him

And also another one is what if Michael had retired early after winning the 2004 title and they had signed Button to replace him? Ross has always rated Jenson and expressed interest at the time. It would be the same tri-combination as at Brawn but with a much worse car, though - you just wonder what that would've done for Ferrrari and Button's reputation (or anyone filling Michael's seat in that year) if he made that move at the wrong time

The last decade could've gone so differently with just a driver move or two

[ASCII Man]

Originally Posted by jab

Button's value in the driver market plummets, humiliated by throwing away what looked at halfway to be a certain title, and is forced to remain at Mercedes.
<snip>
As for Schumacher, he is left out in the cold, with no comeback for him.

I really doubt that if Button threw away last years championship, that he would've been able to stay at Mercedes, especially not when Ross/Mercedes could get their hands on Schumacher instead.

[jab]

They only went after Michael after Button left

I can't see where else he would've ended up otherwise. Had Brawn/Mercedes offered him a deal (which I'm sure they would've done earlier in the season anyway), he would've taken it, because there would've been no alternatives

[ASCII Man]

True, but Brawn/Mercedes were only keen on keeping him as he just won the championship for them.
I don't think they would have felt the same way if he had squandered it, leaving the door open for Schumacher.

[jab]

So where would he have gone then?

Red Bull - no opening
McLaren - not interested
Ferrari - no opening
Williams - no opening
Renault - no opening
Force India - no opening

Anyone else is probably unrealistic

I think they still would've offered him something. It would have just been on a lot less money. A driver like him would be too good to be out of F1. I'm pretty sure contract talks would've begun before he won the title in reality. A decision would have just been made earlier if it was a closer run thing, because Button's management would've pushed the negotiations more - it wasn't like last year where they could sit back and see what everyone else had to offer. I don't buy this conspiracy that Button was forced out of the team

[ASCII Man]

I don't think that Button was forced out (in reality), but if he hadn't won the title, and didnt look like winning it before the end, or at least was making a real messy job of it, then his position to bargain would've been severely weaker than what it was in reality.
You can't really buy America with just beads these days.

Besides, I'm pretty sure they were already in negotiations with Mercedes at the same time to increase their involvement with the team, which would point everything even more in the direction of Schumacher and Heidfeld (who I personally consider just as good a racer as Button) than the man who just seems to lose/had lost them the title in a pretty dominant car.

Remember Damon Hill in 1996?
His Arrows drive the following season was pretty unrealistic too, wasn't it?

[jab]

Originally Posted by ASCII Man

Remember Damon Hill in 1996?
His Arrows drive the following season was pretty unrealistic too, wasn't it?

Let's face it, I'm a big Damon fan but he went for the money. Plus Arrows looked like a good option at the time - manufacturer backing, Bridgestone tyres, plenty of money, Walkinshaw etc. He had other offers - Jordan, McLaren, Benetton, Stewart. He chose to go to Arrows

I'm not a Button fan but even if he had thrown away the title, after the first half of the season he had I can't see him not having a drive or ending up at one of the new teams or something stupid like that

[ASCII Man]

I would be pretty insulted as well if I was the reigning world champion and got a 1m contract offer (with a per point bonus), even if it was McLaren, who at the time were still quite far from being a championship contender.

Still, I don't believe Mercedes would've been keen on Button if they even had a remote chance of getting Schumacher.
Don't underestimate the power of the da.. err, Schumacher.

[jab]

Originally Posted by ASCII Man

Don't underestimate the power of the da.. err, Schumacher.

Just found a newly released pic of Michael Schumacher in his official 2010 helmet and overalls

[frostie]

Originally Posted by jab

I don't buy this conspiracy that Button was forced out of the team

Yeah I don't buy that at all either.

Brawn has always liked to have consistancy in driver lineups. He liked to keep both drivers if they were upto the task-Schumi/Irvine/Barrichello but if there was to be a change he wanted to keep at least one driver. Would Ross have allowed Barrichello to leave so easily in the summer if he thought there was any risk of Button leaving? I don't think so for a second, especially when at that time he was racing at the same pace if not better than Button. When the McLaren talks started he thought it was only a ploy to get more money in contract negotiations for this year. Button left because he wanted to see how good he is in comparison to Hamilton and not because he was pushed out of Brawn

[herowassenna]

Several points, Schumacher and Brawn started talking in Abu Dhabi, so maybe the offer to Button was reduced by then.
I'd also imagine that Button didn't particularly like the promises he'd been made when he took the pay cut and subsequent hard line that Brawn and Fry took with him.
And whilst Brawn may have been straight down the middle with him, maybe things changed when Mercedes became owners.
In a recent article in Autosport, Brawn speaks of the accurate feedback he's getting from Schumacher, suggesting "between the lines" that Button wasn't.
Although in a similar article, Irvine made fun of Schumachers actual set up ability. He was completely in tune with the engine, but by all accounts he missed a front wing that was worth 1/2 a second, which when Irvine tried it he rated it and Schumacher tried it again.
I suppose when you have that level of talent, maybe you drive round problems which lesser drivers can't.
After all, Schumi won 3 races in the F310, a car that Irvine himself couldn't work out how MS did it

But, back to thread. What if MS hadn't been able to be signed away from Jordan to Benetton. Would Jordan have won races sooner and Benetton always under-performed? Seeing as Brawn and Byrne were at Benetton, would MS never have worked in conjunction with them and surely then Ferrari would never have been turned around....

[jab]

Originally Posted by herowassenna

Several points, Schumacher and Brawn started talking in Abu Dhabi, so maybe the offer to Button was reduced by then.

The story goes that although they spoke then, they didn't start seriously talking about it until later

Originally Posted by herowassenna

But, back to thread. What if MS hadn't been able to be signed away from Jordan to Benetton. Would Jordan have won races sooner and Benetton always under-performed? Seeing as Brawn and Byrne were at Benetton, would MS never have worked in conjunction with them and surely then Ferrari would never have been turned around....

Well, the whole saga is quite complicated - I recommend JA's Schumacher book as an excellent insight into the whole thing. But basically, it centred around Schumacher signing a pre-contract with Jordan for 1992, which allowed Weber, Briatore et all to exploit it. Michael and his team were happy with Jordan to start with until they got wind of the team's troubles and plans to use Yamaha engines in 1992, so they wanted out ASAP

Now if EJ had got him properly tied down, Michael probably would've ended up staying, or Benetton would've had to have paid out his contract. Anyway, supposing he stays, the team would've ended 1991 strongly - Michael would've got points, I'm sure (he may have won at Spa, going by de Cesaris' performance, if the clutch hadn't gone, so almost certainly would've picked up better results than Moreno and Zanardi in the late races). But then, as expected, they would've gone downhill in 1992. The 192 was a terrible car

But for 1993, Sauber were entering, and Michael had a clause in his Mercedes deal that stated that if Mercedes were to enter F1, he would drive for them. This was allowed to lapse in reality, but obviously wouldn't have if he had been struggling at Jordan. So the likelihood is you would've seen Schumacher partnering Wendlinger at Sauber in 1993. From here on, it's anyone's guess - he probably would've stuck with Sauber into 1994 and may then have followed Merc to McLaren thereafter. But how that would've panned out, I don't know - there are others to consider like Frentzen, the McLaren drivers, and who Benetton would've signed

The course of F1 history would've been radically different. Benetton would not have reached the heights they did - no way. If Michael had stuck with Merc, Ferrari may not have recovered too. We may have ended up with a period of McLaren domination led by Michael into the late 90s, replacing the domination of Senna and Williams

It is a very good question, that. So many possibilities. You could write a book on it, like our Lustigson is writing a book on "what would've happened had Senna not died"

[kezza7]

Originally Posted by jab

But for 1993, Sauber were entering, and Michael had a clause in his Mercedes deal that stated that if Mercedes were to enter F1, he would drive for them.

You dont feel that Schumacher kept this clause in his contract for his entire career and thats how he got out of Ferrari not wanting him to go, as was being speculated, do you

[jab]

I think the clause itself was eliminated in 93. May have been paid. I haven't got JA's book on me now otherwise I'd look it up and tell you

But it's a good theory. Hadn't thought of it myself

[chunterer]

Ok, here's one from leftfield.

It's August 1988, Johnny Herbert doesn't have a horrendous shunt with potentially career ending consequences at Brands Hatch and goes on to pip Moreno for the F3000 title....

Frank Williams and not Peter Collins sign him for 1989 as replacement for Ferrari bound Mansell, (alongside Boutsen and Patrese goes to Benetton and alongside Nannini) Thus Johnny (i'm sorry i'm not wishing to be disrespectful of traumatic facts) gets into Williams as the Renault engine starts and thanks to his pace and massive enthusiasm is much nearer to the front running pace consistently than his journeyman teammate wins 3 races and challenges the dominant McLaren's on several ocassions.

By the time 1991 comes round Herbert is an out and out title contender from the outset, with Mansell returning from his Ferrari let down as supposed No 1 but struggles against Herbert's natural pace from the outset and it's Johnny who goes on to narrowly miss out to Senna for the title.

Mansell stays on for 1992 and puts in a mighty effort to pip Herbert (who's active ride system keeps playing up) for the title before walking away from the sport for good.

Herbert then goes onto take the 1993 title at a canter before Senna joins him for 1994 (Prost having signed a one year deal at McLaren alongside Hakkinen) with Schumacher partnering Frentzen at Mercedes (Sauber) and JJ Lehto alongside Alex Zanardi at Benetton.

[jab]

We could have a whole alternate universe at this rate

Was Johnny actually linked to that Williams drive, then? Would've been pretty interesting to see, given how well Thierry B did in that seat

Also he would've been carrying number 5, so how would that have worked when Mansell returned?