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Old 6 Oct 2018, 17:47 (Ref:3854938)   #31
EffectiveSprinkles
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No, what we're doing is looking at the actual result with the benefit of hindsight. The teams all knew the odds beforehand, which is why 9 teams out of 10 chose not to run.
They had no idea about the actual odds, that's impossible. How many times do racing teams get caught out by rain? It's at the moment completely impossible to predict to the minute when actual rain is going to hit the track, let alone determine if enough of it will hit for inters to be needed. You vastly overestimate the predictableness of very localized weather.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:08 (Ref:3854940)   #32
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Originally Posted by EffectiveSprinkles View Post
They had no idea about the actual odds, that's impossible. How many times do racing teams get caught out by rain? It's at the moment completely impossible to predict to the minute when actual rain is going to hit the track, let alone determine if enough of it will hit for inters to be needed. You vastly overestimate the predictableness of very localized weather.
Indeed, there's absolutely no way to predict when rain is very likely to happen. You couldn't, for example, give it down to a percentage. That's just fiction!

You vastly underestimate the advances in weather technology in only the last 2-3 years. With the latest satellites capable of servicing smaller businesses rather than requiring government level budgets, there have been massive gains in the hyperlocal weather reporting. Dark Sky and Weather Underground both have bespoke systems that can take your GPS location and give you a notification to a smartphone when it's about to rain. There's probably loads more systems too - these are just two public ones which do an incredible job of hyperlocal reports and notifications. They're pretty popular with cyclists and runners trying not to get caught in rain.

There is at least 1 WEC team who places spotters around the circuits and uses smartphones for the notifications, knowing someone on the south (for example) will get the notification before someone in pit lane. If WEC teams are doing it, then F1 teams are all doing it, and Ferrari tried to be smarter than everyone else and weren't. They all knew the odds, just Ferrari took the risk of everyone else being wrong.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:13 (Ref:3854943)   #33
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But didn't.

Is this getting as tiresome for you as it is for the rest of us.....?


It seems not......
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:16 (Ref:3854946)   #34
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Originally Posted by Akrapovic View Post
Indeed, there's absolutely no way to predict when rain is very likely to happen. You couldn't, for example, give it down to a percentage. That's just fiction!

You vastly underestimate the advances in weather technology in only the last 2-3 years. With the latest satellites capable of servicing smaller businesses rather than requiring government level budgets, there have been massive gains in the hyperlocal weather reporting. Dark Sky and Weather Underground both have bespoke systems that can take your GPS location and give you a notification to a smartphone when it's about to rain. There's probably loads more systems too - these are just two public ones which do an incredible job of hyperlocal reports and notifications. They're pretty popular with cyclists and runners trying not to get caught in rain.

There is at least 1 WEC team who places spotters around the circuits and uses smartphones for the notifications, knowing someone on the south (for example) will get the notification before someone in pit lane. If WEC teams are doing it, then F1 teams are all doing it, and Ferrari tried to be smarter than everyone else and weren't. They all knew the odds, just Ferrari took the risk of everyone else being wrong.
When I was watching qualifying this morning, DC mentioned something about Ferrari having a spotter on the other side of the track.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:18 (Ref:3854948)   #35
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Yes, he was at turn 5 at COTA.....
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:21 (Ref:3854949)   #36
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Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith View Post
When I was watching qualifying this morning, DC mentioned something about Ferrari having a spotter on the other side of the track.
Wonder if one of the spotters got it very wrong and Ferrari reacted to his incorrect information. Maybe he spilt his drink on himself and thought it was sudden rain.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:27 (Ref:3854952)   #37
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Originally Posted by Akrapovic View Post
Indeed, there's absolutely no way to predict when rain is very likely to happen. You couldn't, for example, give it down to a percentage. That's just fiction!

You vastly underestimate the advances in weather technology in only the last 2-3 years. With the latest satellites capable of servicing smaller businesses rather than requiring government level budgets, there have been massive gains in the hyperlocal weather reporting. Dark Sky and Weather Underground both have bespoke systems that can take your GPS location and give you a notification to a smartphone when it's about to rain. There's probably loads more systems too - these are just two public ones which do an incredible job of hyperlocal reports and notifications. They're pretty popular with cyclists and runners trying not to get caught in rain.

There is at least 1 WEC team who places spotters around the circuits and uses smartphones for the notifications, knowing someone on the south (for example) will get the notification before someone in pit lane. If WEC teams are doing it, then F1 teams are all doing it, and Ferrari tried to be smarter than everyone else and weren't. They all knew the odds, just Ferrari took the risk of everyone else being wrong.
All of that is very nice but completely irrelevant. They still don't know at what exact second the rain is going to fall and if enough falls for inters to be needed. Which is what I said in my previous post and you simply ignored. So I can only conclude you're not interested in proper discussion. The 'Ferrari is **** at strategy' meme must survive at all cost.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:31 (Ref:3854954)   #38
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liked the intro. thanks!

quali was a mess...i guess Ferrari feel their only chance now is to do the opposite of Merc.

cant say i blame them but it is all a bit desperate.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:35 (Ref:3854957)   #39
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jimclark should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridjimclark should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridjimclark should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridjimclark should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Should've, could've, would'ves...... It is what it is. Tomorrow's (today, technically, I guess, over there) "session" is the important one.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:38 (Ref:3854959)   #40
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also dont think ive ever seen DanRic so angry. his anger kinda made me feel i bit uncomfortable!

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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:38 (Ref:3854960)   #41
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Originally Posted by EffectiveSprinkles View Post
All of that is very nice but completely irrelevant. They still don't know at what exact second the rain is going to fall and if enough falls for inters to be needed. Which is what I said in my previous post and you simply ignored. So I can only conclude you're not interested in proper discussion. The 'Ferrari is **** at strategy' meme must survive at all cost.
Actually what you said was -

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They had no idea about the actual odds, that's impossible.
This isn't true. They had a good idea about actual odds. That's why 9 of the teams managed to get it correct.

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It's at the moment completely impossible to predict to the minute when actual rain is going to hit the track
This is also untrue. It's not completely impossible - there are entire businesses set up and doing it. You claiming my post was irrelevant doesn't actually make it irrelevant. I've listed two systems you can use yourself to get this feature.

I didn't ignore what you said. I replied exactly to what you said.

We agree on many Ferrari topics on this forum, but like Ferrari during qualifying, you're on your own with this one But you didn't know the odds of that happening when you posted, of course.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:40 (Ref:3854962)   #42
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also dont think ive ever seen DanRic so angry. his anger kinda made me feel i bit uncomfortable!

https://streamable.com/91d9p
Don't worry, that'll be Horner and Max when they have the Honda engine.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:45 (Ref:3854963)   #43
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Don't worry, that'll be Horner and Max when they have the Honda engine.
haha...or more like Ric realizing how he's now married to this Renault engine.
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:46 (Ref:3854964)   #44
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Don't worry, that'll be Horner and Max when they have the Honda engine.
Wasnít there more Hondas in Q3 than Renaults?
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Old 6 Oct 2018, 18:52 (Ref:3854965)   #45
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Wasnít there more Hondas in Q3 than Renaults?
Yeah. And in the last 3 races, Honda engines have scored 0 points whilst Renault engines have scored...man I'm too lazy to add it up, but they've had a podium and a bunch of top 10s.

Honda do this every-so-often. Great wee session, things are looking great. And then it all resets 24 hours later. They managed a top 10 qualification at Monza - the biggest power circuit we have. Still came away with nothing.

Maybe Honda will get there, but one good Q3 doesn't mean much.
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