One race to go: predict the champion

[BTCC frog]

After 21 races of an intense title battle, it has all boiled down to the last race. Not only that, but incredibly, the two title protagonists, Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen, have exactly the same number of points, with Verstappen ahead on a tie-breaker. It is the first time since 1974 that this has happened (Emerson Fittipaldi beat Clay Regazzoni with a fourth place that year). This happens every year in NASCAR, but that is artificial to make the final race more exciting, and often gives unworthy champions. This time, it has happened by luck as the title contenders are so evenly matched. As a neutral, I have said a few times this season that this was one of the greatest of all time, and would be the greatest if we got a fantastic title finale. And it looks as though we will get that. The two have collided three times this season, in Silverstone, Monza and Jeddah, and have also had close, often controversial scraps in Bahrain, Imola, Spain, France,
Zandvoort and Brazil. Both have been very critical of each other, as have Toto Wolff and Christian Horner. It has been the most intense of title finales, and going into the final race, who do you think will come out on top. Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes appear to have the upper hand at the moment, with better form and seemingly the faster car, but last season Abu Dhabi was the only race where Red Bull were genuinely faster than Mercedes, so it could go either way. At the moment, I think Hamilton is the narrow favourite, so my vote goes to him. But I've no idea who I'll be rooting for in the finale. Generally, I prefer Hamilton and Wolff to Verstappen and Horner, but something doesn't feel right to me about Hamilton overtaking Schumacher for drivers' titles, or Mercedes matching McLaren for constructors' titles (this will probably happen anyway as Bottas is ahead of Perez in the points). And I feel that Max Verstappen and Red Bull deserve it more as they have had more bad luck, losing a win in Baku, and probable second places in Silverstone and Hungary through (almost) no fault of their own. At the BTCC finale in 2019, I kept changing my mind over whether I was supporting Turkington or Cammish, and that made the finale even better, so hopefully the same will happen. Hopefully it will not be settled on a controversial incident, but after Saudi Arabia, that seems very possible. This video is from the season 2 Formula e finale with Buemi and di Grassi when they were level on points. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0dXAb9p8io
and I fear we may have a repeat. One race to go in perhaps the greatest season of all time, who will win the championship?

[Knowlesy]

Whoever wins it deserves it. Simple as that really. Verstappen until recently performed very well. Hamilton has had a slow burn season and hit form at the right time.

Who will win it? God knows. If there is one thing this season has taught me, it is that predictions are hopeless.

I am just pleased it got to the last round. I did not expect that prior to the Brazil sprint race.

[Richard C]

It is a toss up. I voted Lewis, but only because I think if all things are equal, Lewis is the better overall driver. But I generally would like to see Honda (and by extension Max) win the WDC. I hope the poll doesn't become a popularity contest. If I was voting my heart, I would have picked Max.

Has the track not favored Red Bull in the past? The two are so equal right now that it seems small things tend to tip the scale one way or another.

Richard

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Knowlesy

Whoever wins it deserves it. Simple as that really. Verstappen until recently performed very well. Hamilton has had a slow burn season and hit form at the right time.

I agree with this. Provided that we have no more of the silliness we saw yesterday and at other times during the season. A good close hard and fair race - is that too much to expect? I fear I know the answer.....

[Paradise City]

Hamilton has the confidence won by repeated experience and his team is a powerhouse. Hamilton is also just luckier ultimately. Verstappen is more fragile, a bit less stamina. Lady luck goes hot & cold with him.

So Hamilton.

[Alan52]

Heart says Max because I’m over the same person continuing to win the title-will be 7 of the last 8 years.Regardless of who it is.
Head says Lewis.Since he got the 3 weekend special motor at Interlagos his straight line speed has given him dominance.Compare Bottas who took many laps to get past Ocon on Sunday with Lewis who got past him in a straight line when he first came up to him with great ease.
The Bottas option in the poll happening would mean the Internet would melt down.Either way how good will season 4 of Drive To Survive be?

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Alan52

.Since he got the 3 weekend special motor at Interlagos his straight line speed has given him dominance.

Ahh but on the other hand we know that the Merc engines degrade and lose their edge quickly, hence the regular (since Turkey, turnover of new engines we saw, certainly far short of the standard 7 races per engine scenario) and after three races Lewis's current engine will not be the grunter it was in Brazil.
Will Mercedes potentially throw another new engine at Lewis on the basis that it is worth more than the 5 place penalty it incurs, as we saw in Brazil. Clearly Brazil, with the way the DRS zones and relative ease of passing made that decision easy, but could they opt for that strategy again.

That scenario does not work for Red Bull / Honda.... the Honda engine degradation is foar less initially than the Merc.

[Skam85]

Originally Posted by E.B

Ahh but on the other hand we know that the Merc engines degrade and lose their edge quickly, hence the regular (since Turkey, turnover of new engines we saw, certainly far short of the standard 7 races per engine scenario) and after three races Lewis's current engine will not be the grunter it was in Brazil.
Will Mercedes potentially throw another new engine at Lewis on the basis that it is worth more than the 5 place penalty it incurs, as we saw in Brazil. Clearly Brazil, with the way the DRS zones and relative ease of passing made that decision easy, but could they opt for that strategy again.

That scenario does not work for Red Bull / Honda.... the Honda engine degradation is foar less initially than the Merc.

A lot harder to pass in Abu Dhabi than Brazil though. (even with the circuit changes)

I don't think they will take the risk.

[GTRMagic]

I want a ripper race...
Its a winner takes all scenario..
Whoever finishes ahead, will be the World Driver's Champion for 2021..

There will be teammates in the way.. and common engine teams as well (lots more Benzes around than Hondas..)

In the end.. its a question of heart..
I reckon Mr Hamilton will be absolutely positively on it.. every fibre of his everything ready to put is all on the line.
He is also a fortunate fellow, often escaping issues and skirmishes less dis advantaged than the other fellas he runs against

Time for the GOAT to grow... another WDC...

[S griffin]

Hard to choose who I would prefer to win it. On the one hand I would like to see someone other than Lewis win it, but OTOH I want Max to be put back in his place after his dirty and dangerous antics this season and I also want to see Karen Horner and Dr Marko's ego deflated.

If only there was a third option that didn't rely on them getting DQed

[GT6]

Heart says Max, head says Lewis but the imp inside me says give everyone a laugh so voted for option 3

[steve_r]

I fear that the only way Hamilton will win is if he is so far ahead of Verstappen that a deliberate Senna / Prost collision is impossible.

[steve_r]

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by steve_r

I fear that the only way Hamilton will win is if he is so far ahead of Verstappen that a deliberate Senna / Prost collision is impossible.

This is a concern of mine too...

[Adam43]

Unless Marko and Horner keep going and working Max up into a frenzy I can’t see it.

Originally Posted by Adam43

I could see a clumsy move, or a I am Verstappen and allowed to come through, or a last second defensive move, but actually planning and doing it on purpose? No.

[Akrapovic]

Lewis.

The other way I see Max winning is some sort of contact.

[Knowlesy]

The most likely thing is it follows the pattern of the season, with one team or the other getting a small advantage and winning quite handily.

It will be an anti-climax one way or another.

[ljakse]

Originally Posted by steve_r

I fear that the only way Hamilton will win is if he is so far ahead of Verstappen that a deliberate Senna / Prost collision is impossible.

Originally Posted by VIVA GT

This is a concern of mine too...

Add me to that bandwagon.

If that happens, I can only hope we have a 1997 Jerez repeat, not the Senna/Prost variant.


P.S. Max has made me cheering for Hamilton for the first time since he left McLaren.

[chillibowl]

will go with LH and experience.

given the warnings and penalties and the echo chamber RB seem to be living in, RB seem to be struggling to adapt their strategy to the moment (LH has won 3 races in a row) and i think the media intensity will prove too much of a distraction where as Lewis thrives in it.

just thinking about the level of mental fortitude Nico had to employ in order to win in a very similar moment...my prediction is that Max does not have this in him.

who knows though!

[BTCC frog]

Originally Posted by S griffin

If only there was a third option that didn't rely on them getting DQed

What about the Mercedes and Red Bull are both found illegal and Charles Leclerc wins the championship (although Norris and Sainz are still in contention)! It still means both get disqualified but it's better than causing a deliberate crash.
It's interesting that so far more people think Bottas will be champion than Verstappen. It seems that Hamilton is more overwhelmingly the favourite than you might think.
It's also interesting that, since Verstappen was voted most popular driver in that fan survey, the fans generally seem to have turned against him. Earlier in the season, I saw a poll of who people wanted to win the championship, and Verstappen had the majority of votes. There was another one after Saudi, and now Hamilton had twice the votes of Verstappen.
https://forums.autosport.com/topic/2...win-the-title/ and fans on this site also seem generally more on Hamilton's side now than Verstappen's.

[Aysedasi]

There is still plenty of Hamilton-hate on social media, although those with no 'baggage' to deal with have definitely turned against Max.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by Adam43

Unless Marlo and Horner keep going and working Max up into a frenzy I can’t see it.

Add Jos to that list, his hysterical performance when his son hit the wall during qualifying was very telling. No wonder the three of them get on well but it must make life difficult for MV. Hamilton kicked out his father and family from attending races and Max might be better off doing the same.

[E.B]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

There is still plenty of Hamilton-hate on social media, although those with no 'baggage' to deal with have definitely turned against Max.

I fit into the great respecter of both's abilities but fan of neither category.... but I admit a softening of my respect for Max after the weekend, but that both were 'playing the system' (albeit at different levels) re the timing of the pass.

Then thinking back to Silverstone I had a minor hiccup in my respect levels for Lewis.

Re the options, maybe the DSQ of both RBR and Merc and a down to the wire winner takes all fight between Leclerc and Lando for the WDC (4 points split them). Then sit back and wait for what Netflix make of it.....
Where are my pills...

[chillibowl]

Wont have to wait long.

max and Lewis partnered together for the driver presser on Thursday.

[Knowlesy]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

Wont have to wait long.

max and Lewis partnered together for the driver presser on Thursday.

That'll be fun.

Lewis: "This isn't my first rodeo"

Max: "I am genuinely not bothered what happens" before crashing into his direct rival four times in three corners.