Toward the title 2012

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Schummy

It is not as simple as counting points. It is about combination of results between them. Perhaps calculations shows a better pattern of results for HAM so far in the season.

So does Lewis now need more miracles

[stripedcat]

Teflonso does look to be in a strong position. He was happy when Vettel didn't finish in Monza, and he was happy when Hamilton didn't finish today.

As I think was mentioned, he only needs to be in the Top 5 of every race until the end of the season(and he was in the Top 3 today) - and the title is his. Of course, he could have a couple of DNFs, but he is still looking very strong. Ironically, he has the third fastest car out there. When was the last time someone won the WDC in not the best car?

[luke g28]

While the ferrari doesnt appear to be the quickest car very often, it appears to be the most consistently quick. Team with the ultimate pace seems to swap around quite often but Alonso always seems to be on the podium.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by stripedcat

Ironically, he has the third fastest car out there. When was the last time someone won the WDC in not the best car?

3rd fastest car but most reliable. Alternator problems (ironically when the car was slower at Monza, but quicker at Valencia) for Red Bull/Sebastian and Gearbox problems for McLaren/Lewis do not make for the best car.

[QnickFTW]

I think it's pretty obvious that we will have a triple champion by the end of the year.

Vettel

[Mr V]

What Lewis and Seb need is for Mark and Jenson to play the Felipe role, but thats not gonna happen.

[QnickFTW]

Originally Posted by Mr V

What Lewis and Seb need is for Mark and Jenson to play the Felipe role, but thats not gonna happen.

True, unfortunately neither Mclaren nor RBR operate that way. Plus, bizarrely, both JB and Webbo are convinced that they are as good as their team-mates. Bless them

Massa at least got the hint by now.

[QnickFTW]

Oh and dont forget Kimi has his own Massa too. It was a pretty obvious team-order how he got past Grosjean this weekend. Grosjean, if his pace yesterday wasnt convincing enough, finished the race 0.9 behind Kimi just to make a statement I think. He will take one for the team, but he is not slower than Kimi.

[chunterer]

Originally Posted by QnickFTW

Oh and dont forget Kimi has his own Massa too. It was a pretty obvious team-order how he got past Grosjean this weekend. Grosjean, if his pace yesterday wasnt convincing enough, finished the race 0.9 behind Kimi just to make a statement I think. He will take one for the team, but he is not slower than Kimi.

Fair comment, i'm sure he knows he needs to keep his powder dry and play the team game to help secure his long term future in F1. After all, from 2013, Kimi ain't gnna be around for years and years, Romain quite probably will be judging by his latent pace this season.

[Bononi]

Sometimes things can change quickly...

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Mr V

So does Lewis now need more miracles

I think you were right because I think my former calculations had an error counting "probabilities".

Now I'm going to update numbers after Singapore, hopefully rightly this time

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by QnickFTW

I think it's pretty obvious that we will have a triple champion by the end of the year.

Vettel

Yes.

and hopefully not.

[Schummy]

After Singapore (10000 simulations):

Alonso 93.0%
Vettel 6.2%
Hammy 0.7%
Ray Conen 0.1%
Webber let's forget it

(let's remember my former post: calculations pre-Singapore probably were wrong, so changes are not so dramatic as they look)

[Aysedasi]

Kimi as high as that........?


So basically, Vettel and Hamilton have swapped stats in the stats after Singapore.......

[Schummy]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Kimi as high as that........?


So basically, Vettel and Hamilton have swapped stats in the stats after Singapore.......

No, in fact I think my former pre-Singapore numbers were wrong , I had transpose badly a matrix. I think Ham and Vet were similar. I'm too lazy to recalculate them again

[Schummy]

More numbers.

From a statistical point of view we can visualize current gaps as if there were just one race to go:

If just one race to go:
Vettel -11.8 [2/14]
Raikkonen -18.4 [0/14]
Hamilton -21.2 [0/14]

First number is the gap if we had one race to go. So, Vettel would need 12 or more points more than Alonso in that last race.

Second number is number of times in the season that the driver has got that advantage of points with Alonso. For example, Seb got 25-6 = 19 points in Bahrain, and Belgium 18-0 = 18 in Spa, so 2 times out of 14 races. It gives a "naive" probability of 2/14 = 14%.

Just to maintain or increase the chances, Vettel needs at least 3 points on Alonso in the next race. Kimi would need at least 4 points over Alonso and Hamilton at least 5 points. Otherwise they are going to lose (even more) chances for the title. That is the minimum goal for them.

Probably confusing, which is probably a good thing

[Adam43]

I like that way of expressing it.

[Schummy]

Well, finally I became "unlazy" for a moment and redid the pre-Singapore percentages. Astonishingly, they are not so different from the wrong ones I did days ago; a complete serendipity.

Before Singapore:
Alonso 93.0%
Hamilton 4.1%
Vettel 1.5%
Raikkonen 0.8%
Webber 0.6%

It's puzzling how far were Vettel and Raikkonen from Hamilton having just two and one point less, and how close Webber and Raikkonen with a gap of ten points. The "mystery" of the combinatory and the different pattern of results among drivers. At the end, it's not just points, it is also the kind of results gotten.

So, Aysedasi is right, Vettel and Hamilton essentially have changed seat in the chase of Alonso.

Just for sake of curiosity, here go the probability of being runner-up in the WDC (before Singapore):
Hamilton 31.7%
Raikkonen 25.7%
Vettel 25.6%
Webber 11.2%
Alonso 5.9%

I don't know if Lewis would be happy knowing he was the favorite for 2nd place. I think not much. Alonso had ~99% of getting 1st or 2nd in the WDC. Webber only had 12% of being 1st or 2nd. Not really so bad for a "servant" of Vettel . Remember that this is before Singapore.

Probably Button has some chances to be runner-up, but I have not included him in the calculations (laziness). Sorry, Michibata-san.

[Schummy]

Travelling to 2010, 6 rounds before the end, the situation was:

HAM 182 3 wins
WEB 179 3 wins
VET 151 2 wins
BUT 147 2 wins
ALO 141 2 wins

Six races after, at the end of the season:

VET 256 +105 points +3 wins
ALO 252 +111 points +3 wins
WEB 242 +63 points +0 wins
HAM 240 +58 points +0 wins
BUT 214 +67 points +0 wins

So, a complete reversal of results between them.

Anyway, a gap analysis showed, though, that all of them had a good chance to surpass the (then) leader Hamilton:

6 races to go:
Prob of surpassing Hamilton:
HAM --
WEB 38%
VET 23%
BUT 8%
ALO 15%

Looking this way, the title of Vettel, was not so surprising, at least in that point of the championship.

The worst moment for Vettel happened with 3 races to go. The leader was Webber (not other) and Seb was 14 points behind and with a weak set of results in the season, in comparison with Mark. The calculation showed a scarce 6% of probability of surpassing Webber. And still it happened. It was a remarkable set of three last races for everyone; very unlikely according to the rest of the season.

So, unlikely things eventually can happen; just they don't happen often.

[Marbot]

Originally Posted by Mr V

What Lewis and Seb need is for Mark and Jenson to play the Felipe role, but thats not gonna happen.

Certainly not! Webber and Button are far from out of this championship, particularly with regard to beating their team mates. Whereas Massa must be looking at another disappointing season as a definite number two driver to Alonso.

Alonso would appear to not only have a good lead in the championship, but may also have a means with which to 'destroy' other drivers championships.

[Mr V]

So, how's them stats looking now ?

[Schummy]

Well, I have some graphs and thing to put here . I hope it can be of some utility/enjoyment.

First, a graph with the average points per race along the season (for the main 5 drivers, sorry Jenson). Basically it is the same as a points progression for every driver, except that this way one can easily compare in different points of the season and how drivers go better of worse.
(black=Alonso, blue=Vettel, green=Hamilton, weird=Raikkonen , red=Webber)


Basically, chaos in the first part of the season, Alonso's dominance after that and Vettel's resurrection lately.

Now, the next graph shows the streaks in Igood of bad) form por each driver. It is computed using each run of 5 consecutive races (weighted).
(Colors as before)

The first thing that jumps to the eye is the excellent streak of Alonso in the middle of the season, with an average score of almost 20 point per race.

The first (modest) streak was Vettel's in the first races, around 14 points per race. Then there was Alonso's one, after Alonso there was a surprising streak for Raikkonen (about 14-15 points per race). Finally, we are in the apparent beginning of a Vettel's streak.

Looking it in a reversed way, we can see the really bad Webber's streak in the last races (only 3 points per race!). Second worst streak was by Hamilton, some races ago, with a scarce 6-7 points per race. Obviously it refers to these five drivers, other drivers have had much worse streaks (I am not looking at anybody in this moment).

Quantifying the best and worst streak of everyone of those drivers, we get:

Best streaks (of 5 weighted races):
ALO 19.3 ppr (points per race)
RAI 14.9 ppr
WEB 14.1 ppr
VET 13.7 ppr
HAM 12.2 ppr

Worst streaks:
WEB 2.4 ppr
HAM 6.4 ppr
VET 8.4 ppr
RAI 8.6 ppr
ALO 9.4 ppr

• The second best streak is by Kimi, even if he has not won yet!
• Webber has had a better streak than Vettel, who has not had any particularly great streak.
• Hamilton has not be able to chain a string of good results (the team...)
• Webber has had one of the most appalling bad streak ever (in the last races) for a contender.
  [Alonso has been the most regular, without any bad streak (his worst streak is of 9.4 ppr. Second most regular is, nor surprisingly, Kimi, and very near of Kimi is Vettel.

Looking the graph in the current GP, we see Vettel on the rise, Kimi deflating, Webber sunk, Alonso reaching his nadir and Hamilton in a chaotic state (for good or for bad).

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by Schummy

Looking the graph in the current GP, we see Vettel on the rise, Kimi deflating, Webber sunk, Alonso reaching his nadir and Hamilton in a chaotic state (for good or for bad).

So , we've changed Jenson for Kimi and have basiclly the same as we've had the previous seasons !

[Schummy]

And both Jenson and Kimi deal(t) with quick but unstable team mates

[Schummy]

Another gif(t). This time the gif graph is about the difficulty of overcome the gap to the top driver. It is calculated for the main 5 drivers and along the season. A given gap is harder to overcome when there are less races to go, so gap size and number of races to go have to be considered.

(Colors: Black=Alonso, Blue=Vettel, Brown=Kimi, Green=Hamilton, Red=Webber)


Below 10 is a gap easy to fill, above 10 is harder, above 25 is very unlikely to be overcome.

In the "chaotic phase" at the beginning of the season, anybody had an easy gap, along the middle season, when Alonso has his great streak, the rest of drivers were going out, one by one, of the comfortable zone to the "difficult" zone. After that, Seb came back to the easy zone (because of the maximally favorable events in Japan) while his team mate was projected out to the frozen and gloomy "unlikely zone".

So, in short, now Alonso and Vettel are essentially in an equal position while Kimi and Lewis have a difficult task and Webber is basically out of the picture.