[Driver] The GOAT - A bracket to determine (just for fun)

[Aysedasi]

Just wondering if any votes were lost during the outage and the aftermath?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Just wondering if any votes were lost during the outage and the aftermath?

I think the polls had closed before the server(s) went down. I'll put the next round together today, and if it looks like there may be contentious results I can raise it?

[crmalcolm]

Round Three has now got underway, following a slight delay to proceedings.

The eight fixtures are as follows:

Hill.G vs Senna
Hamilton vs Mansell
Vettel vs Moss
Schumacher vs Häkkinen
Clark vs Alonso
Lauda vs Stewart
Brabham vs Prost
Fangio vs Fittipaldi.E

[crmalcolm]

So what happened in Round Two - and what are the highlights?

The most one-sided fixtures saw whitewashes of 15-0 for Stewart over Jacques Villeneuve, 13-0 for Lauda over Gurney and Senna over Berger.
The closest fixtures saw Graham Hill take a narrow 8-6 victory over Ascari, and Mansell take a 9-6 victory over Raikkonen.

In terms of seeding, the only upset was Moss defeating Piquet - Piquet's statistics suggest he should be through to the third round.

In terms of votes received so far, the leaderboard reads:
Hamilton-27
Alonso-26
Schumacher-26
Stewart-25
Hakkinen-24
Senna-24
Clark-23
Fittipaldi.E-23
Lauda-23
Moss-22
Fangio-21
Vettel-21
Brabham-20
Hill.G-20
Prost-20
Mansell-19
Hill.D-17
Rindt-17
Ascari-16
Hunt-15

[crmalcolm]

Looking at how the voting is going so far - most matches seem to have a clear lead.
In the eight fixtures - two of them look to be going against the (statistical) seeding.

[crmalcolm]

The Quarter Finals are now up and running, with the matches as follows:

Fangio vs Senna
Moss vs Prost
Hamilton vs Stewart
Schumacher vs Clark

[BTCC frog]

The right eight drivers are in the quarter finals, I think. Maybe Ascari and Alonso could feel aggrieved, but I think we have the right final eight. I voted Fangio, Prost, Hamilton, Schumacher.

[Aysedasi]

I don't think there's any place in the pen for the last 8 GOAT contenders for either Alonso or Ascari, I agree that the last 8 is about right. Senna, Moss, Hamilton and Clark. At least we agree on one of them.....

[crmalcolm]

I won't reveal the details until all voting is complete, to keep the seeding hidden until the end.

However - two of the top 8 seeds have not made the quarter finals.
One of the last eight could be expected as having a reasonable chance of upsetting the odds, one of the last eight is a big surprise based on their seed.

I'm sure many would argue that some drivers missed out on the final 64 who deserved to be there - but I would find it hard to see an argument for someone not in the final 64 who should be in the final eight.

(I'm not claiming the seeds are accurate, or that I agree or disagree with the final eight names).

[Aysedasi]

It is what it is, a fun exercise which has prompted some interesting discussion, although I suspect that there will be widespread disagreement by the time we get to the semis, whoever gets there!

[Gerard C]

Imagine you have Hamilton, Senna, Prost and Schumacher on the short list, how will you determine each match? From the points won here or during WC or something else?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Imagine you have Hamilton, Senna, Prost and Schumacher on the short list, how will you determine each match? From the points won here or during WC or something else?

Yes - an interesting choice to be made in the near future.

Where will people cast their votes......

[Gerard C]

Thanks for taking care. The more we go the more you're the boss of this thread, very influent.
Only between you and me, I read and re-read your very well documented texts, but when hesitating I voted what my heart suggested. Only thing is that mixing so different eras its very hard to take in count the car/engine reliability which in fact is almost impossible. Was Fangio hard on the car or not? Who can answer now?

But as you say, its for fun and yes I confess to like it very much! Merci.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

when hesitating I voted what my heart suggested.

One possible way to determine, if you don't have an obvious winner in a competition, is to use a variation on a coin toss. It goes as follows:

If you are unsure what way you want a decision to go, or which way you need to decide - toss a coin. However, just before you reveal, your mind will very quickly tell you what it 'wants' the coin to be. That is the decision you go with, and you don't actually have to reveal which way the coin-toss went.

[Gerard C]

Just tried with a bank note but bad luck, windy day today!

[chunterer]

How about another one of these for best never to win the title or best overtaker?

[Gerard C]

And a final with Rosemeyer, Amon, Nuvolari and Belloff may be?

[crmalcolm]

We are now down to the last four, and the Semi Finals are up and running.
The Semi Finals can be found at the following links:

Semi Final - Schumacher vs Senna
Semi Final - Hamilton vs Prost

Are these the greatest four of all time? The 'Fantastic Four' some might say.
Maybe - the nature of the bracket means that some others who could make a claim to be in the top four have unfortunately not made it.

But - there can be only one - and the competition is closing in on the winner of the Ten-Tenths March Madness F1 GOAT Bracket 2021.

[crmalcolm]

Looking back at the quarter finals, what results did we see?

Fangio vs Senna saw a match-up between Argentina and Brazil.
The Brazilian took this match 17-6, meaning he is the only non-European left in the competition.

Moss vs Prost saw England vs France.
Moss is regularly referred to as 'the greatest driver never to win the World Championship' - this lack of a WDC seems to have been the deciding factor and the Frenchman is through to the Semis 12-9.

Hamilton vs Stewart was a match up between England and Scotland.
This age-old rivalry saw England victorious 16-5, and Hamilton remains the sole Brit in the Semis.

The final match up was Schumacher vs Clark.
Another Scot saw the quarter finals as the furthest they would reach, as the German driver was victorious 13-8.

As expected at this stage, there were no real trouncing, and each match - whilst having a clear winner - saw a reasonable amount of votes for the loser of the contest.

Whoever eventually comes out on top - there are still those who feel someone else in the field is a greater driver.

[Aysedasi]

Moss and Prost was pretty close wasn't it?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Aysedasi

Moss and Prost was pretty close wasn't it?

Yes - closer than it should have been on seeding.

It's interesting to see how close the results align with the seeds, and which ones are real deviations.

Teaser:
The final four were the top 4 seeds going into the bracket.
Six of the last eight were in the top 8 seeds.
Fifteen of the last sixteen were in the top 16 seeds.

[crmalcolm]

Having revealed that the top four seeds are the final four in the votes - will the top two make it to the final?

The Semi Finals are drawing to a close, and there is still time to sway the result. Neither Semi is a one-horse race, or a foregone conclusion.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Having revealed that the top four seeds are the final four in the votes - will the top two make it to the final?

The short answer is - no. The top two seeds are not the two finalists.

The 3rd/4th Playoff sees Schumacher vs Prost

The Final sees Hamilton vs Senna

So who do you think will be crowned the (just for fun, not really serious, a talking point only, not definitive) Greatest Driver of All Time in F1?

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

(just for fun, not really serious, a talking point only, not definitive)

Shhhh its a well kept secret. I still hesitate between Nuvolari and Rosemeyer, ya no… We have to recognize that the finalists belong to a much modern era. In your view is it related to the age of votants? Out of sight, out of mind?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

We have to recognize that the finalists belong to a much modern era. In your view is it related to the age of votants? Out of sight, out of mind?

I think there are so many factors that lead to more recent competitors in any sports as being seen as 'better' than their predecessors.

In general:
Many sports (particularly with a technical component) can be considered as making continual improvements over what went previously.
Materials are lighter, engines more powerful, brakes stronger, aero enhanced etc. All of these could be seen as making the F1 car of today as being better than previous eras (with exceptions).

So if I asked whether Nico Rosberg's title winning Mercedes is faster round a track than Graham Hill's Lotus - the answer is yes. So, I feel that means it is easier in the subconscious to see Rosberg beating Hill in a head-to-head contest.

Secondly, every decade sees the drivers' improve their athletic ability. That's not to say that drivers from the '60s would not be able to reach the athletic ability of a driver from the 2010s, but the truth is that today's drivers are fitter. So when you see a picture of a driver from 1960 alongside a driver from 2015, the recent driver looks like they are capable of performing to a higher standard.

Thirdly, the access to data to make comparisons from is much greater in recent years. For early drivers, it is sometimes hard to even find definitive records on lap times, let alone be able to 'see' how they performed. So you are reliant on people's memory. Compare that to today - and I would imagine that there is footage somewhere of every single metre of track that Hamilton has driven in an F1 car. So not only can we tell more about how good Hamilton is - we can also more easily compare him to his competitors on track.

If I asked you how good was Jean Behra driving at Reims in 1959, it is hard to find evidence other than race reports. So from that, it is hard to draw a conclusion on how well Moss had to driver to claim the podium place.
In recent races, it is a lot easier to find evidence of how well Pierre Gasly drove at Imola in 2020, and so determine how well Verstappen had to perform to get the podium that day.

So when you are asking people to decide between a driver from more recent times and someone from a few decades ago - it is 'easier' and more comfortable to vote for the more recent driver because you know more definitively how good they were - whereas the driver from earlier history is generally more vague, or open to interpretation, as to how good they were.

The Formula One website did a comparison for the 70th anniversary, and some of the differences they highlight show why it is easier to see a modern driver as greater:
1950 vs 2020: Cars, drivers, safety and pit stops – how F1 has changed in 70 years

'1950 Alfa Romeo 158 Front-engined, rear-wheel-drive, 1.5-litre supercharged in-line eight cylinder, 709kg, 350bhp

2020 Alfa Romeo C39 Rear-engined, rear-wheel-drive, 1.6-litre V6 turbo hybrid, 746kg, 1,000+bhp'

'While the five key points of the 1950 track remain today – Woodcote, Copse, Becketts, Stowe and Club – the circuit has swollen to 3.660 miles since its 2010 reconfiguration, while in 2011, it gained its distinctive Wing building, housing state-of-the-art facilities and sitting on top of the new pits, with Abbey – a lap-ending left-hander in 1950 – a lap-starting right-hander now.'

'Look at footage of the 1950 British Grand Prix and you can’t help but notice one thing: the drivers are pretty old! The average age of the racers that day was 39, while Luigi Fagioli, Louis Chiron and Philippe Etancelin were in their 50s. At 29, Geoffrey Crossley was the spring chicken of the bunch – and he was older than 13 of the 20 drivers on the current grid.

They were a pretty rag-tag lot as well, a mixture of rich aristocrats like Prince Bira and Swiss racer Baron de Graffenried, a doctor of political science in Farina and even a Belgian jazz band leader, in Johnny Claes.'

'The amateurish nature of that first race, plus the varying quality of the machinery, understandably gave rise to some wildly diverging performances.

Farina’s pole position was set at 1m 50.8s (94.4mph) – while Johnny Claes qualified last, precisely 18 seconds (that's right, 18 seconds) off the Italian’s pace. The race, which lasted 2 hours and 13 minutes, then saw 10 of the 21 starters retire, while eight of the 11 finishers had been lapped by the race end – three of them finishing six laps down on winner Farina.

Compare that to the 2019 British Grand Prix, and the gap from Valtteri Bottas’ pole position (set on the modern circuit at an average speed of 155.7mph) to the back of the pack was just 3.164s – while in the one hour 21 minute race, there were just three retirements, with all but three classified drivers finishing on the same lap as winner Lewis Hamilton.'


Which ultimately leads us to what I feel is a really interesting comparison:

Could Lewis Hamilton have driven a Mercedes-Benz W196 from 1954? The definitive answer is yes - because we have evidence of him doing that.

Could Fangio or Moss have driven a Mercedes-AMG F1 W11 EQ Performance? We just don't know.


Is this the GOAT driver in the GOAT car?