Honda Withdrawl from F1

[steve_r]

Breaking news that Honda will withdraw from F1 at the end of 2021.

Not good news for their two teams.

https://global.honda/newsroom/news/2...01002aeng.html

So many years of underperforming and explosions, and now they finally get to a position where they are reliable and competitive, and off they go.

[Akrapovic]

Good. The F1 engine market needs to completely collapse in on itself so we can remove the power from the big manufacturers.

[Richard C]

Sad news for both F1 and myself as I am a long time Honda fan.

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Sounds like quite a sudden Honda board decision to me, probably the people that RBR deal with at Honda day to day had no idea either. I doubt RBR had that much advance warning.

It might be sudden, but I think it's not exactly shocking. Just look back to news around the end of 2019 start of 2020, and Honda was on the fence about continuing even then. They did commit to at least 2021, but beyond that was a big question mark. With Honda clearly stating that their direction and the direction of F1 power units were not in sync.

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

As the engine regs are stable for the coming years - would make sense for Red Bull to buy the engine project from Honda - bring in a Cosworth or Illen to develop and run it. Would give them control, would enable them to try and get on par/or an advantage over their rivals.

What is an F1 engine project, it is about money - if you have the fundng you can recruit the best people, develop the best product. Red Bull has plenty of money, it would safeguard it's F1 future.

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Could be the case, IIRC Mechachrome was Briatore wasn't it, but in this case do we think Honda would want to commit resources themselves even if RBR was paying unless it could be a Mugen run programme that RBR badge themselves.

Originally Posted by steve_r

The Mugen Honda / own branding option seems possible.

Originally Posted by Casper

The PU is so complex the idea of Illen or a similar company being involved is not feasible. Honda are pulling out for just that reason so for an external supplier to make a go of it the motor will have to be be far simpler than at present.

I agree with Casper. I am dubious of someone just taking the Honda unit and picking up from where they left off. Be it a partnership of Mugen or taking the technology to Illen, or any other small scale bespoke racing engine provider, I just don't think it will work.

I see lots of challenges to overcome.

If you take the entire thing and take it elsewhere, then that is not just the basic IP of the current solution, but a ton of data and internal institutional knowledge as to "how" and "why" it works. Is Honda going to put a price tag on that? Could they even transfer that knowledge to someone if they wanted without providing long term support? Honda may even have some level of secret sauce IP that they don't want to let out of the house even if they don't plan to immediately use it. Or maybe they will patent it as keeping it secret no longer is needed (with no guarantee someone else could use it in F1). Even then, these power units are probably so complex (and supply chain related items so deep) I just wonder if someone could take the solution and shift it over and continue to produce new examples let along develop it.

As to Honda partnering with someone (such as Mugen) be the face, but Honda continuing the work behind the scenes and having someone else foot the ongoing operating and R&D cost. That could happen if this was purely a financial question and Honda was just tired of spending the money, but still liked the direction. While the money required is for sure a concern at Honda, I think the real issue is as they say. They just don't think F1 currently (or in the future) is in sync with their corporate strategy! So in that situation, they will want to redirect those internal resources away to focus on their strategy. They will have little interest (even if someone else pays the bill) to keep their internal F1 team together. Plus, they rotate staff in/out. They will want those people to go forward and be part of other internal initiatives.

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

Good. The F1 engine market needs to completely collapse in on itself so we can remove the power from the big manufacturers.

Yes. The manufactures have pushed for costly and complex units which means that only large manufactures with deep pockets are able to finance the R&D needed. Even then, nobody has been able to really push beyond what Mercedes has done. The recent changes to engine modes has hurt Honda as much as anyone (and left Mercedes still on top).

Originally Posted by steve_r

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that the 2022 engines will be the same as the current generation ones.

I believe the current regulations will be good through 2021 only (which is as deep as Honda will commit). That there are discussions on what will happen 2022 and beyond. With the current expectations it will be broadly based upon the current regulations (1.6L turbo V6) but without the MGU-H system. The MGU-K would remain.

I applaud the move to simpler solutions. But I frankly think they are not going far enough and should move to a more commodity solution and to do away with the power unit arms races. Would this mean some type of controls to limit performance? Probably. I assume it would be mostly done via VERY tight regulations with some occasional BoP type of things (I know, I know). The problem is that the discussion is lead by the manufactures so they are looking for a sweet spot in complexity that is good for them, but would not be good for someone like a Judd, Cosworth or Ilmor.

On the surface this seems contrary to manufacture involvement. But rather what it does is allow manufactures to create their own versions of a relatively "spec" power unit and reap marketing benefits (as they do in other series that runs this way). But clearly it would not be a particularly challenging engineering experience. Some manufactures would not be interested, some would. But what would also be part of this would be the ability for small suppliers such as Judd, etc. to provide competitive engines.

It also would allow someone like Red Bull to build their own engine. If I was Red Bull, and I wanted to remain in F1, I would press HARD for much more simple engine regulation for 2022+ that would allow them to eventually build their own engine. A basic non-turbo ICE that did not rely upon current levels of combustion efficiency plus maybe a more commodity hybrid solution. They could either hire away people from established player or just buy one of them. And that solution wouldn't have to be 100% focused on F1. It could continue to service other series as well.

One last comment... Since Eddie Jordan is so good at predicting things, why wasn't the F1 sites flooded with quotes by him saying "Honda about to leave F1!"

Richard

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

If you take the entire thing and take it elsewhere, then that is not just the basic IP of the current solution, but a ton of data and internal institutional knowledge as to "how" and "why" it works...

but this is what they essentially did with their chassis IP when they basically gave it Brawn and Fry.

granted an engine may be closer and dearer to their heart then the chassis IP was.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

but this is what they essentially did with their chassis IP when they basically gave it Brawn and Fry.

granted an engine may be closer and dearer to their heart then the chassis IP was.

I had typed a larger reply to this and swear I posted it, but it seems to be gone. Regardless, here is a slightly shorter version.

I think the Brawn chassis aero, while brilliant, was significantly less complex than the current power units. Teams also are already geared up to design, build and deploy chassis/aero solutions. So that was an easy transition.

Having someone hand you a current F1 power unit and say "good luck" is likely to not go well. You would need to be someone who already understands how they work, plus have the supply chain and infrastructure to not just reproduce what has been given to you, but improve upon it. That list is probably small if not zero (unless you area an existing manufacture such as Porsche)

Also, we are talking about the 2014-2021 specification. Which Honda will continue to provide RBR/AT with. This really is about what happens in 2022 which will be a new specification. Yes, it is likely to be a simpler evolution of what we have today, but make no mistake, those engines will be all new, because they are currently optimized for the current regulations. And the new regulations will drive new optimizations. The point being this is about a totally new engine and less about taking Honda's solution and running with it. But who knows what the 2022 power unit regulations will be? Maybe they will kick the can down the road and keep on with the current specification? But I can't see Ferrari agreeing to that given their current situation. They are probably more interested in rolling the dice on a new specification than continuing on with the current one.

Richard

[Moneyseeker]

If the burnt bridges can be rebuilt, I guess it will be Red Bull Renault again.

Interestingly Cyril was talking about Renault wanting partners not just customers for any future engine deals.

This, though is the problem of a front running team needing engines from their immediate rivals.

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[chunterer]

Woah wasn't quite expectimg that as they are moving forwards in performance?!

Have to say i agree wity Akrapovic on this. Hopefully this will now see urgent activity by Stefano and co to investigate 'private' engine suppliers and entrants once more.

This should also nip this stupid €200m new team entry fee in the bud.

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by chunterer

Woah wasn't quite expectimg that as they are moving forwards in performance?!



Have to say i agree wity Akrapovic on this. Hopefully this will now see urgent activity by Stefano and co to investigate 'private' engine suppliers and entrants once more.



This should also nip this stupid €200m new team entry fee in the bud.

Go the BTCC route get a standard engine then keep knocking back the other works engines to make sure it stays competitive.

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[ascarracinguk]

Oof! Where does that leave red bull! Renault are their only option and I guess the 2022 car will be designed around the Honda.

I guess the inevitable question is where does Max go? Ferrari or Mercedes? Does Mercedes replace Bottas with max and Hamilton retire at the end of 2021?

Silly season just got an upgraded KERS system....just not a Honda one!

[ascarracinguk]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Go the BTCC route get a standard engine then keep knocking back the other works engines to make sure it stays competitive.

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I’ve always wondered this. Where does F1 go next? Bin the manufacturers and get specialist racing engines giving petrol heads what they want or follow manufacturers and go fully electric

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by ascarracinguk

I’ve always wondered this. Where does F1 go next? Bin the manufacturers and get specialist racing engines giving petrol heads what they want or follow manufacturers and go fully electric

Although Liberty/Malone own a small stake in FE, I blieve that Agag cleverly got agreement from the FIA that FE would be the only full elctric single seater FIA world championship series. In theory Liberty would have to buy FE in order to make F1 full electric.

Been an interesting year for FOM and their investors have they have seen how vulnerable F1 is global conditions, not owning any circuits themselves and now manufacturers pulling out leaving teams without engines.

I have always said that FOM/Liberty will never make the return on F1 that BE/CVC did and I still believe that. In order to protect their investment...

They should go back to companies that were looking at developing engine and see what can be developed as a stock F1 engine in the realisation that no other car manufacturer is going to build an ICE F1 engine now.

Buy their own circuit so they will always have a base for races/testing and where they could develop an European F1 experience - Liberty are in the entertainment inudstry aren't they - and then you would have a tangible asset, not just a load of contracts that as this year shoed, can be proved to be worthless.

[ascarracinguk]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Although Liberty/Malone own a small stake in FE, I blieve that Agag cleverly got agreement from the FIA that FE would be the only full elctric single seater FIA world championship series. In theory Liberty would have to buy FE in order to make F1 full electric.

Been an interesting year for FOM and their investors have they have seen how vulnerable F1 is global conditions, not owning any circuits themselves and now manufacturers pulling out leaving teams without engines.

I have always said that FOM/Liberty will never make the return on F1 that BE/CVC did and I still believe that. In order to protect their investment...

They should go back to companies that were looking at developing engine and see what can be developed as a stock F1 engine in the realisation that no other car manufacturer is going to build an ICE F1 engine now.

Buy their own circuit so they will always have a base for races/testing and where they could develop an European F1 experience - Liberty are in the entertainment inudstry aren't they - and then you would have a tangible asset, not just a load of contracts that as this year shoed, can be proved to be worthless.

Can’t fault some of this logic

We could be heading for another Cosworth DFV type era with 1 specialist racing engine (and Ferrari) that puts more oneness on racing teams and constructors rather than engine manufacturers.

The cost cap will help with this

[mogwai]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Been an interesting year for FOM and their investors have they have seen how vulnerable F1 is global conditions, not owning any circuits themselves and now manufacturers pulling out leaving teams without engines.

I have always said that FOM/Liberty will never make the return on F1 that BE/CVC did and I still believe that. In order to protect their investment...

Buy their own circuit so they will always have a base for races/testing and where they could develop an European F1 experience - Liberty are in the entertainment inudstry aren't they - and then you would have a tangible asset, not just a load of contracts that as this year shoed, can be proved to be worthless.

Edited to the bits which are really ********. No offense intended but here is why that is not how things work in the real world.



Tangible assets. Entertainment companies are NOT tangible asset companies. Their revenues are not generated from holding anything other than contracts to supply entertainment. It may include some hard assets (ala Bernie owning paul ricard) but those hard assets are NOT the primary drivers of revenue for any entertainment company unless you're someone like Disney (they are a media company and diversified so not the best example) or a theme park. However, look at how Six Flags struggles during years when we DON'T have a pandemic and you'll see, entertainment firms relying on hard assets are not a good mix. The actual revenue driving assets are the contracts and the sales and hard assets for an entertainment driven company are an inefficient use of their resources.


The Dallas Cowboy's, for example, do NOT own the stadium they play in. That's a fools investment and that is why big investments like that are, in the developed/non-totalitarian world, are public/private partnerships.



For another consideration think of these tangible assets in terms of Silverstone or the Nurburgring or COTA. Hard assets such as these are NOT what an entertainment company should be investing in as the return on these assets are a drag. This idea that own tracks can generate any meaningful return on the capital is simply incorrect.

Regardless of what you think Liberty should or should not do, fact is the firm has a massive catalog of assets and complex arrangements which relied upon debt and debt refinancing. Their liquidity runway was adequate for this year though clearly there were concerns about the financing burden on their coverage.



And speaking of return for Bernie, consider the fact that when Liberty bought F1, the brand was burdened with +3B in debt...that doesn't seem like a wise use of funds either.



Hard assets aren't the solution...racing is the solution.


Good article at Forbes from earlier in the year if you'd curious. Chris Sylt is spot on in his analysis. https://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2.../#483c69af66e6


Everything else you said was fine

[2 litre Touring Car Star]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Go the BTCC route get a standard engine then keep knocking back the other works engines to make sure it stays competitive.

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BTCC route??? F1is different type of motor racing.

Standard engines are for lower level racing.

[ascarracinguk]

Originally Posted by 2 litre Touring Car Star

BTCC route??? F1is different type of motor racing.

Standard engines are for lower level racing.

Really? I mean the Ford DFV served F1 well for a few decades, the Gibson engine does well for LMP2 etc etc

[2 litre Touring Car Star]

Originally Posted by ascarracinguk

Really?

Yep.

Originally Posted by ascarracinguk

I mean the Ford DFV served F1 well for a few decades, the Gibson engine does well for LMP2 etc etc

That's fine when it occurs like that "organically". When it's forced or pre-empted like in the btcc, it's not particularly satisfying.

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by 2 litre Touring Car Star

BTCC route??? F1is different type of motor racing.

Standard engines are for lower level racing.

F1is over relaint on the engine performance factor - look at Ferrari now they have been pegged back - nowhere on pure performance .

[steve_r]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that the 2022 engines will be the same as the current generation ones. Looking back to when Renault withdrew from F1 a few years back, Benetton ran the same engines but rebadged them Mecachrome IIRC. In the same way, perhaps Red Bull could continue to run the existing Honda units themselves. Is engine development restricted / frozen? If so, then this might be a viable option and they could remain competitive.

Given how overly complex the engines are, I cannot see why any new manufacturer in their right mind would enter F1 - especially considering how bad PR Honda got with their underpowered and unreliable engines when they entered. I assume that a new engine manufacturer would be unlikely - unless F1 rules change to simplify engine regs considerably.

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by steve_r

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that the 2022 engines will be the same as the current generation ones. Looking back to when Renault withdrew from F1 a few years back, Benetton ran the same engines but rebadged them Mecachrome IIRC. In the same way, perhaps Red Bull could continue to run the existing Honda units themselves. Is engine development restricted / frozen? If so, then this might be a viable option and they could remain competitive.

Given how overly complex the engines are, I cannot see why any new manufacturer in their right mind would enter F1 - especially considering how bad PR Honda got with their underpowered and unreliable engines when they entered. I assume that a new engine manufacturer would be unlikely - unless F1 rules change to simplify engine regs considerably.

Could be the case, IIRC Mechachrome was Briatore wasn't it, but in this case do we think Honda would want to commit resources themselves even if RBR was paying unless it could be a Mugen run programme that RBR badge themselves.

The Perez to RBR rumours seem to be gathering pace, maybe his sponsors wpould fund the engines?

OT, but the Mercedes to selling to Ineos runours aren't going away either. I think Daimler are batting it off at the moment by saying they have no plans to sell the team - but the Ineos rumours are built around them buying a major stake (70%).

[wolfhound]

Remember after Honda pulled out the last time the team that they left behine went onto greater things.


Surprised at the timing when Honda seemed to be making decent progress with their power units. Problem is the cost cap does not cover power units properly.

[wolfhound]

Its going to be interesting to see what engines the Red Bull teams end up with.


It will have to be one of the existing maufacturers as there is not time for a new one to come in and develop a new power unit.



I suspect we might see RB with one and Alpha Tauri wiyh another.

Mercedes will be supplying power units to 4 teams next season so they are unlikely to have the capacity to supply 2 more.

Renault and RB did not get on well in recent years despite winning 4 championships together.

Ferrari are in a weak position at the moment and already have 3 teams to supply and probably don't want a high profile team like RB giving them more hassle.


I suspect we could see Renault supplying Alpha Tauri as it would be lower profile and without all the drama that goes with RB. It would give Renault an extra load of data to work from.
Where RB goes is another question, a Fiat badged Ferrari perhaps.

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by wolfhound

Its going to be interesting to see what engines the Red Bull teams end up with.


It will have to be one of the existing maufacturers as there is not time for a new one to come in and develop a new power unit.



I suspect we might see RB with one and Alpha Tauri wiyh another.

Mercedes will be supplying power units to 4 teams next season so they are unlikely to have the capacity to supply 2 more.

Renault and RB did not get on well in recent years despite winning 4 championships together.

Ferrari are in a weak position at the moment and already have 3 teams to supply and probably don't want a high profile team like RB giving them more hassle.


I suspect we could see Renault supplying Alpha Tauri as it would be lower profile and without all the drama that goes with RB. It would give Renault an extra load of data to work from.
Where RB goes is another question, a Fiat badged Ferrari perhaps.

How about Mercs as follows. Merc as Merc. Aston Martin as Aston Martin and RB as SMART - Williams Renault

[Knowlesy]

Red Bull to go crawling back to Renault?

[S griffin]

While it's a shame to lose Honda, this is why F1 or any motorsport for that matter, should be so reliant on manufacturers. They come and go as they please. Their racing department may enjoy the competition, but at the end of the day the decision to continue or not comes from those at the top, the actual motor manufacturer. If only we could have a modern equivalent of the good old Ford Cosworth DFV

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by S griffin

While it's a shame to lose Honda, this is why F1 or any motorsport for that matter, should be so reliant on manufacturers. They come and go as they please. Their racing department may enjoy the competition, but at the end of the day the decision to continue or not comes from those at the top, the actual motor manufacturer. If only we could have a modern equivalent of the good old Ford Cosworth DFV

This is why TOCA have done such a good job with the BTCC, it still has the 'glamour' of some 'works' entries, but they are not allowed to dominate a well built, run and driven TOCA engined car car win races or as may be the case this year, the championship. Yes, we know that performance balancing and other elements help this. Now there will be a TOCA Hybrid power unit to keep the BTCC topical.

For years, F1 has been standing on an upside down pyramid. At the end of the BE/CVC era probably half the teams could afford to stay in business and half the circuits couldn't afford to hold the races - at least FOM is now recognising this and making changes.

More worrying for FOM and their marketing people is that Honda no longer see the value in F1 for them, which is not good news for FOM's global marketing platform.