MotoGP/Moto2/Moto3: 2020 posible champions

[Schummy]

I know some of the following numbers are pretty boring but I hope the first part is a little bit informative.

Just trying to add a bit of calculations for this rather anomalous season. I have calculated One Race Gaps for riders in the three categories. ORG is the points gap between a rider and the leader of the category if there was just only one race to go, calculated to be equivalent to the current real gap (with 12 races to go, after the 2nd Jerez race).

So, Vinales's 10 gap with Quartararo would be equivalent to a 2.9 gap if they had only one race remaining in the season. Obviously, it means it is still a very open fight between VIN and QUA for the leadership in the final standings. The details of the ORG calculations are probably not very interesting but, anyway, they are somewhere in the F1 forum.

The tables show three numbers: real current points gap, One Race Gap and an approximate probability of that gap to be overcome. I like to call "difficult" when ORG > 10 (probability < 10%) and "(very) unlikely" if ORG i> 25 (probability < 1%).

MotoGP
QUA   50  
VIN  -10  2.9  32%
DOV  -24  6.9  17%
NAK  -31  8.9  12%
PESP -31  8.9  12%
ROS  -34  9.8  11%
MIL  -37 10.7   9%
...
MMAR -50 14.4   5%

Moto2
NAG  50
BAS  -2  0.6  46%
MARI -5  1.4  40%
CAN -20  5.8  20%
BAL -22  6.4  18%
MART-24  6.9  17%
LOW -24  6.9  17%
GAR -28  8.1  14%
VIE -29  8.4  13%
BEZ -30  8.7  13%
Other        <10%

Moto3
ARE  50
SUZ  -6  1.7  38%
MCP -10  2.9  32%
OGU -14  4.0  27%
ROD -20  5.8  20%
VIE -23  6.6  18%
FER -24  6.9  17%
ARB -27  7.8  15%
MAS -31  8.9  12%
ALC -31  8.9  12%
Other        <10%

Some thoughts that those numbers bring to my mind:

- MMarquez has a pretty difficult task to reach Quartararo. It is not difficult even to catch Vinales. But obviously it is a calculation done with the scarce info we have at the beginning of the season.

- Every rider except 5 have already difficult to overcome Quartararo. That is, there are only 6 reasonable title contenders... and the very special case of MMarquez!

- In Moto2 and Moto3 the season is still very open in realistic contenders. Of course, this is expected in the first races of the season LOL

=========================================

About MAR-QUA, let's think it in a very simplistic way, just for entertaining(?) purpose. Let's suppose they were to end 1st/2nd in every remaining race. MAR needs to recover 50 points, it means 10 races winning with QUA in 2nd position. In turn, it means MAR needs to win 11-1, or better, against QUA in the remaining 12 races. It looks, at first sight, very hard to achieve in the perceived current state of things.

How improbable is it? Let's use the binomial calculation of probabilities
Let's imagine MAR had some kind of advantage against QUA given by the probability p of winning against him. For example, p = 50% means they are approximately equal but p = 90% would mean MAR would win against QUA approximately 90% of times. The next table calculate the probability of MAR doing a 11-1 or 12-0 against QUA in the next 12 races , depending on his advantage in performance against QUA:

50%   0.3%
55%   0.8%
60%   2.0%
65%   4.2%
70%   8.5%
75%  15.8%
80%  27.5%
85%  44.3%
90%  65.9%

If MAR and QUA are approximately equal in race performance then it is near impossible for MAR to catch QUA.
MAR needs to have an advantage of at least 2 to 1 against QUA to have a reasonable chance.
Finally, MAR needs to have an advantage of approx more than 85% to expect him to overtake QUA. That advantage would be 17 to 3 against the Frenchman.

So, in my view it is not so difficult for MAR to fight against QUA for the title. But it needs that MAR/Honda has a certain advantage against QUA/Yamaha. If it is not the case than the season is practically over for MAR. I don't think MAR will have a big advantage against QUA (or if he will have any advantage at all), so I still see QUA with a clear advantage.

Some can argue that the 50 points gap will vanish with just two DNFs by QUA. Two thoughts on that:
- It is not so easy to have two DNFs by QUA and no one by MAR.
- More importantly, those calculations are done in the simplistic scenario of those two getting 1st/2nd in each race. It is just a basic calculation, not a complete scenario.

Of course, I am deliberately "forgetting" Vinales and others for the title chase... . I was not supposed in any way to do an exhaustive view about the championship!