The broad sunlit uplands of next March. Yeah, really. .

[Mike Bell]

I now see that Eurotunnel are to sue the government over the procedure adopted to award contracts for extra cross channel freight capacity!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47206303

I also heard it said that Eurotunnel aren’t in a position to offer any extra capacity, even if they had been asked.....

[Podd37]

Originally Posted by grantp

Interesting.

What has changed in the past decade or so since the earlier vote to leave the EU and the subsequent re-vote to reverse that position when the EU objected?

Our second vote contained clarifications on various aspects of the agreements. We, as a people were not sure of the validity or possibly truth of some of what was being put forward by any side so it ran again with those issues sorted out. As a nation we now see ourselves as European, with all the pluses and negatives that may bring. But the positives far outweigh the negatives.


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[Podd37]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

But the UK as a whole voted to leave. What is happening is that certain parties are suggesting that because the UK wants to leave it is responsible for creating a hard border. As we know such a thing is unnecessary. Even if there's a hard Brexit borders won't be shut to UK or UK bound goods.



As reported the current regime, in terms of customs checks etc. On goods will remain.



The Irish backstop is a failed attempt to circumvent the will of the UK. If it had a break clause there would be no issue. But without a break clause the UK government cannot honour the referendum because it would be locked into the EU without any say in what goes on. Hence it is not the UK creating the problem but the EU.

But Peter, was the backstop not drawn up by the UK AND the EU last november? May was negotiating and a draft agreement agreed. Then your House of Parliament rejected it. Surely you cant be blaming everyone else for what your politicians drew up and agreed to and more of your politicians voted against?


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[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by Podd37

But Peter, was the backstop not drawn up by the UK AND the EU last november? May was negotiating and a draft agreement agreed. Then your House of Parliament rejected it. Surely you cant be blaming everyone else for what your politicians drew up and agreed to and more of your politicians voted against?


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It's a technical point but to be clear, the backstop as it sits would never get past any independent professional legal review. It was drawn up by unqualified civil servants and has passed a political review, but as you know the legal review that was had, made it clear that the backstop was unworkable in any reasonable sense. It was I suspect, forced upon the naive souls who call themselves negotiators. It was this failing that parliament rejected.

If there was a unilateral break clause, as there is in any contract, for a set reason, then there would be no issue.

Also for the record I personally wouldn't permit most of Parliament to negotiate for a bag of sweets in Tesco.

[gary396]

Originally Posted by Podd37

But Peter, was the backstop not drawn up by the UK AND the EU last november? May was negotiating and a draft agreement agreed. Then your House of Parliament rejected it. Surely you cant be blaming everyone else for what your politicians drew up and agreed to and more of your politicians voted against?


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It is correct to say that the UK Government drew up the plan with the EU but have they actually proposed creating a hard border?

[Podd37]

Originally Posted by gary396

It is correct to say that the UK Government drew up the plan with the EU but have they actually proposed creating a hard border?

Well someone from the uk did at some point suggest the possibility of putting uk customs officers in southern Irish ports....you can imagine how that went down. The hard border will directly arise from a no deal brexit. It almost has to otherwise how can you stop people just moving goods and people around as they do now with no checks? Every tech firm that has looked at it says technology wont work given the nature of the border, there are crossings everywhere, over hundreds of kilometers. It splits fields, rivers all sorts of places. So while not being directly said (the GFE would be in bits if it was said openly) only a fool would think its anything other than a very strong possibility.



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[gary396]

Originally Posted by Podd37

Well someone from the uk did at some point suggest the possibility of putting uk customs officers in southern Irish ports....you can imagine how that went down. The hard border will directly arise from a no deal brexit. It almost has to otherwise how can you stop people just moving goods and people around as they do now with no checks? Every tech firm that has looked at it says technology wont work given the nature of the border, there are crossings everywhere, over hundreds of kilometers. It splits fields, rivers all sorts of places. So while not being directly said (the GFE would be in bits if it was said openly) only a fool would think its anything other than a very strong possibility.



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It's been discussed earlier in this thread I believe. The UK would be perfectly happy to export anything across the border - if the Irish Gov want to police that then that would be a matter for them. That's where the real problem lies i.e. for the Irish Gov - perhaps why they and the rest of the EU keep trotting out the 'no hard border line'.

Coming the other way they would be "EU cleared" goods so as the UK are currently happy with the standard of them there is an argument that we could continue to do so, at least for a period of time until practical measures were put in place.

I know that's a very simplistic argument and not necessarily mine but one that has been expounded both here and elsewhere.

I'm not defending the UK Gov - they've been a shambles and I agree with you that a hard border would be disaster but I do often wonder who keeps raising that.

[Podd37]

Agreed Peter, the negotiators are pretty terrible and I wouldn’t give them a job doing deals for me.
Don’t get me wrong here, I think the idea of you leaving is daft, (my opinion) but if thats what people voted for well hey, thats democracy. I do think a lot of lies were told, scaremongering on both sides and bad information. Is there corruption within the EU? Of course there is. There is here too and in the UK. Are the Eu politicians unelected? No, they are elected by your MEP’s. Are the civil servants ulnelected? Yes as they are in most countries. As far as im aware, you can control immigration already. I know we can. But as I say, votes were cast on available information.
The real issue is your bloody awful leaders, the people that all ran or are running before the ship hits the iceberg regardless of the outcome. By and large, over here the attitude is, fine leave, do whatever, but to be 2 months out and no idea of how shipping will work, to be unaware of what traffic comes through various ports, to have a leader that just seems to be doing her own thing despite peace agreement and borders and companies running off, social unease and rifts...all of that, all of the current mess.... thats what we really dont get. My wife’s company, a big outfit, is now bypassing the parent company’s distribution centre in Birmingham, shipping the product destined for here direct simply because they cant take chances on supply. Causing huge headaches as you can imagine. In ireland we have had govt run countrywide roadshows for over a year now, for all business, on how to adapt, how to deal with a ‘no deal brexit’, as many aspects of it as we have info for. My racing friends who travel from here via the UK to say Spa or Zandvoort have no idea what paperwork they will need so a lot are re-routing through france or just taking time out. This is where the real issue lies, a total lack of leadership.


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[MGDavid]

Originally Posted by Podd37

......... As a nation we now see ourselves as European, with all the pluses and negatives that may bring. But the positives far outweigh the negatives. ........

Of course they do, for you; Ireland is a taker (albeit a small one) whereas we are the 2nd largest giver, and many people feel we are being bled dry.
As Adrian Rogers succinctly put it '“You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.'

PS - we also are European, always have been, long before the EU.

[midgetman]

Hear hear Podd.

This is ridiculous.


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[bauble]

Surely in Ireland you must use an IPaddy?

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by Podd37

Agreed Peter, the negotiators are pretty terrible and I wouldn’t give them a job doing deals for me.
Don’t get me wrong here, I think the idea of you leaving is daft, (my opinion) but if thats what people voted for well hey, thats democracy. I do think a lot of lies were told, scaremongering on both sides and bad information. Is there corruption within the EU? Of course there is. There is here too and in the UK. Are the Eu politicians unelected? No, they are elected by your MEP’s. Are the civil servants ulnelected? Yes as they are in most countries. As far as im aware, you can control immigration already. I know we can. But as I say, votes were cast on available information.
The real issue is your bloody awful leaders, the people that all ran or are running before the ship hits the iceberg regardless of the outcome. By and large, over here the attitude is, fine leave, do whatever, but to be 2 months out and no idea of how shipping will work, to be unaware of what traffic comes through various ports, to have a leader that just seems to be doing her own thing despite peace agreement and borders and companies running off, social unease and rifts...all of that, all of the current mess.... thats what we really dont get. My wife’s company, a big outfit, is now bypassing the parent company’s distribution centre in Birmingham, shipping the product destined for here direct simply because they cant take chances on supply. Causing huge headaches as you can imagine. In ireland we have had govt run countrywide roadshows for over a year now, for all business, on how to adapt, how to deal with a ‘no deal brexit’, as many aspects of it as we have info for. My racing friends who travel from here via the UK to say Spa or Zandvoort have no idea what paperwork they will need so a lot are re-routing through france or just taking time out. This is where the real issue lies, a total lack of leadership.


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I'd still buy you a Guinness. And yes instead of doing their job they decided to try and by pass the decision.

[Peter Mallett]

Yet another example of EU duplicity.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...spirit-eu-law/

[Podd37]

Originally Posted by bauble

Surely in Ireland you must use an IPaddy?

Really?


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[grantp]

George Soros seems to think that the EU may be in danger of a collapse similar to the way that the USSR collapsed back in '91.

This being Soros one wonders what his motive is for pointing it out but let's take it at face value as a genuine concern.

Despite being a political mess run by a dictator of sorts a lot of people have done very well out of the collapse of the USSR and in general it would seem that living standards, for whatever reason, have improved across the population. No doubts there are winners and losers but then

No doubt there are similar opportunities should the EU split in the same way - at least for the major players.

As for the negotiations ... can anyone remember the last time any agreement with potential for significantly different points of view was NOT thrashed out to some sort of conclusion, fudge more often than not, in extra time?

The sensible plan for a "divorce" after 40 years would be a planned withdrawal over some years especially without the added complication of membership of the Euro. But, of course, the Article 50 type arrangements preclude that option intentionally. No one 'inside' on the management team would want to make exit easy. Well, unless they could retain everything that they had access to and offer nothing in return, in which case it would be more like offloading a troublesome child that had reached adulthood but would not leave home.

The chances of anyone knocking heads together and actually negotiating a sensible resolution always seemed to be minimal - both politically (such is the quality of modern politicians) and bureaucratically.

One thing the EU seems to have spent a lot of time creating is a web of legal controls. To do what seems to be necessary for Brexit at this point means ignoring many of those laws and agreements.

Now there is nothing new about the EU ignoring it's own Laws and regulations either within the bureaucracy at HQ or at the country level. But that's not something that is as publicly evident as would be the case for a sensible Brexit extraction period. The last thing the administrators would want is for the other member countries to come to believe the the rules can be bent and escape - possible only partial from the bits of the arrangement that one does not like - may be possible. Brussels would not like that at all. The last things they would want would be a choice of significant breakup or the complexity of a federal nation in the style of the USA. Or something more like Russia, though one wonders if a few of the figureheads might quietly envy Putin.

[Podd37]

Originally Posted by MGDavid

Of course they do, for you; Ireland is a taker (albeit a small one) whereas we are the 2nd largest giver, and many people feel we are being bled dry.

As Adrian Rogers succinctly put it '“You cannot legislate the poor into prosperity by legislating the wealthy out of prosperity.'



PS - we also are European, always have been, long before the EU.

Sorry but you will find that we actually put in more than we received over the last number of years, (2017 just over 2bn for a 1.8bn return) with the the predictions for that ratio to remain the same over the next few years. Yes in the early years we traded assorted rights for cash (we didn’t just take despite what you are told) but that was to try and build a country from the shithole we had been left with up to then. Now despite a recession that nearly sank us we give more than we take, a good thing in anyone’s book. And thats me finished on this subject, my head hurts :-)


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[grantp]

Originally Posted by Podd37

Sorry but you will find that we actually put in more than we received over the last number of years, (2017 just over 2bn for a 1.8bn return) with the the predictions for that ratio to remain the same over the next few years. Yes in the early years we traded assorted rights for cash (we didn’t just take despite what you are told) but that was to try and build a country from the shithole we had been left with up to then. Now despite a recession that nearly sank us we give more than we take, a good thing in anyone’s book. And thats me finished on this subject, my head hurts :-)

Hmm.

Is this potential storm about taxes still building?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...-tax-1.3681963

Is the EU, or rather its component countries, trying to pinch the good - or at least revenue generating - ideas?

[Peter Mallett]

Here's support for Podd. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/extern...n.html#ireland

And The UK which appears to pay a higher percentage against receipts.

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/extern...united_kingdom

[Lancsbreaker]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

Yet another example of EU duplicity.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...spirit-eu-law/

Surely this has been known from the day he was appointed? I remember reading about it at the time.....presumably this is just the formalisation of a typically bureaucratic process that has taken so long that it can now be argued that nothing can now be done, after "the beast of Berlaymont" as I believe he is known has had his malign influence?


Reverting to the Ireland "hard border" issue I'm puzzled as to why us leaving the EU and Good Friday agreement are conflated. UK and Ireland joined the EU (well, then the EEC) in 1973....the Good Friday agreement was signed 10/4/1998. So we had a (spectacularly leaky) "hard border" for some 25 years after joining the EU - and our membership of it was neither here nor there. As I remember it, the murderous behaviour of a tiny minority of both Southern and Northern Irish populations - the paramilitary forces - had remarkably little to do with any trade issues - although no doubt as the political pressures waned the ability of the criminal elements to finance their activities through smuggling was beneficial to them.



UK Government has repeatedly clearly stated that there is no intention to introduce a hard border.......so who is going to?

[MGDavid]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

Here's support for Podd. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/extern...n.html#ireland

..........

Is it?
Unless I'm totally misunderstanding something it says Ireland receives over €2 billion and contributes just under €1.7 billion.

[grantp]

From the BBC web site comes an article about the "real" reasons Nissan decided not to continue with its plan to build the X-Trail in the UK.

It starts out by saying that Brexit was not a major factor, as Nissan had already stated, but then seems to attempts to make a case that Brexit is an important factor.

However they do point out that the European anti-diesel drive could have been an influence since the UK was to build diesel versions of the X-Trail for the European market.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47115753


Then I stumbled across this:

http://carsalesbase.com/european-car...s-2018-models/

Now this appears to be mostly the work of a lone Dutchman and I have not yet attempted to discover where his information comes from and so have no idea how accurate it is. Looking at the end of the table in the link there certainly seem to be come odd entries BUT that would be normal for data and does not necessarily imply the all of it is questionable.

If the number are right X-Trail sales in Europe fell 31% last year. That's not especially unusual if a model is about to be replaced ... but I don't get the impression that it is that close to replacement.


However, nice to see Borgward making a small comeback! (Of sorts.)


Also some interesting information about EV sales and market developments in China.

http://carsalesbase.com/byd-leads-ch...rket/#comments

The end of the article covers investment in battery manufacturing facilities and securing supplies of Lithium to feed them.

[Mike Bell]

On the assumption that everyone has an agenda at the moment, there could be something in this, or it could be the latest 'project fear'...…

"Brexit 'could cause migration to rise by 100,000,' report by Migration Watch UK claims"

[gary396]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

On the assumption that everyone has an agenda at the moment, there could be something in this, or it could be the latest 'project fear'...…

"Brexit 'could cause migration to rise by 100,000,' report by Migration Watch UK claims"

The final part of the EU 3-part series that I previously mentioned was on BBC2 on Monday night. This one covered the migrant crisis of a few years ago when Germany opened its doors - quite revealing to hear the then politicians talk about the horse trading that went on between nations and the EU's role.

Last week's second part was about the financial crisis in Greece.

Interesting little series from the Beeb - worth a catch up on iPlayer if not seen.

[Terence Bower]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

On the assumption that everyone has an agenda at the moment, there could be something in this, or it could be the latest 'project fear'...…

"Brexit 'could cause migration to rise by 100,000,' report by Migration Watch UK claims"

That should please most of those leavers😂

[Gerard C]

You laugh Terence? Mind you that this could give a new meaning to migrant crisis because if you need that many we could run out of stock rather quickly! Can we discus the terms of delivery? Tout ça va gonfler le prix des croquettes de Paddy!