Team Mates Comparison 2014

Schummy · 22 Jun 2014, 21:18 (Ref:3425080)

Similarly to former seasons, I'm putting here the results between team mates in grid position, fastest race lap and race classification in every GP. The code is: "1" means the "first" driver "wins" and "0" means the "second" driver "wins".

Unnecessary disclaimer: I consider "first driver" the one I think was more likely to end ahead in the season (a priori).

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL BAH CHI SPA MON CAN AUT 
========================================
HAM-ROS 100 111 001 101 101 010 000 010 
VET-RIC 0-- 111 000 000 010 000 100 000 
ALO-RAI 111 111 001 111 011 101 101 111 
MAS-BOT 100 111 011 110 000 011 010 100 
BUT-MAG 000 001 111 101 101 001 111 000 
========================================

  TOT1       P1     TOT2        P2
=====================================
 11-13 (ROS) 16%    8- 8 ( = )   0%   Equality
  5-17  RIC  98%    3-12  RIC   96%   Almost busted
 19- 5  ALO  99.3% 14- 2  ALO   99.6% Busted!
 12-12 ( = )  0%    7- 9 (BOT)  20%   Equality
 12-12 ( = )  0%   10- 6 (BUT)  55%   Advantage?
=====================================

TOT1 means the Totals considering the three aspects: grid, fastest laps and race.
TOT2 means the Totals considering only grid and race results, because nowadays fastest race laps tend to be a bit "weird" (not totally weird, though).

The percentages show the "level of confidence" in that we can know the dominant driver is really ahead (not just by "luck"). It is actually the complementary of the p-value, technically (pedantically?) speaking. The adjetives try to convey the meaning of those percentages.

Thus, Hamilton-Rosberg and Massa-Botas are basically two pretty much equilibrated pairs in terms of those results. Button has an unclear advantage over Magnus. Surprisingly Vettel is almost busted already by Mr. Smiley and Alonso has crushed definitively (and in a too fast way) Kimi.

As the season goes forward maybe I'll include another teams. Definitively I am not interested in Marussia or Caterham, very weakly interested in Sauber or Lotus and somewhat interested in Toro Rosso and Force India. These two teams are my first candidates to be included in the table.

shiny side up! · 24 Jun 2014, 02:03 (Ref:3425692)

It is hard for me to believe how soundly Alonso, and to a similar degree Ricciardo, have outclassed their teammates. I find this approach to tracking a "teammate war" much more compelling than the anecdotal post-race "news" articles - thanks Schummy!

Schummy · 24 Jun 2014, 02:30 (Ref:3425701)

Thanks!
Usually, commentary about how well or how bad a driver is doing is colored by subjective pre-judgements and personal bias. It is great to have a nice argument in the pub but it is of not much rational value IMO :-)
(BTW yes, I also engage nice useless racing discussion in the bar lol)

**Born Racer** · 24 Jun 2014, 05:26 (Ref:3425718)

As always Schummy, thank you! Fascinating work.

peterelise · 24 Jun 2014, 06:54 (Ref:3425741)

Ric busted Vet already if you give him credit for Australia.

Schummy · 24 Jun 2014, 12:01 (Ref:3425870)

I agree, but I don't now if I should give him credit. I don't matter the "administrative" penalty but the effect of the relative over performance that Red Bull gave him because of the flow meter issue.

Anyway, I suppose he would over perform Seb anyway, I suspect, so I am tempted to give him those "points".

Schummy · 11 Jul 2014, 22:41 (Ref:3432995)

After Silverstone:

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL BAH CHI SPA MON CAN AUT GBR
===========================================
HAM-ROS 100 111 001 101 101 010 000 010 011
VET-RIC 0-- 111 000 000 010 000 100 000 110
ALO-RAI 111 111 001 111 011 101 101 111 111
MAS-BOT 100 111 011 110 000 011 010 100 000
BUT-MAG 000 001 111 101 101 001 111 000 111
===========================================

  TOT1       P1     TOT2        P2
=====================================
 13-14 (ROS)  0%    9- 9 ( = )   0%   Equalness
  7-18  RIC  96%    4-13  RIC   95%   Almost busted
 22- 5  ALO  99.8% 16- 2  ALO   99.9% Busted!
 12-15 (BOT) 30%    7-11 (BOT)  52%   Advantage
 15-12 (BUT) 30%   12- 6 (BUT)  76%   Advantage
=====================================

Not really any dramatic change. The only detail is Botas and Button have increased their virtual advantage. They are not still significant but Button is nearing that. Jenson needs the next two GPs bettering Magnus in grid and race to be almost busting the Dane. Botas needs the three next races winning against Massa in both ways, not easy.

Schummy · 21 Aug 2014, 04:45 (Ref:3445891)

After Hungary:

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL BAH CHI SPA MON CAN AUT GBR GER HUN
===================================================
HAM-ROS 100 111 001 101 101 010 000 010 011 010 001
VET-RIC 0-- 111 000 000 010 000 100 000 110 001 100
ALO-RAI 111 111 001 111 011 101 101 111 111 111 111
MAS-BOT 100 111 011 110 000 011 010 100 000 000 001
BUT-MAG 000 001 111 101 101 001 111 000 111 001 101
===================================================

Code:

  TOT1       P1     TOT2        P2
=====================================
 15-18 (ROS) 27%   10-12 (ROS)  17%   Equalness
  9-22  RIC  97%    6-15  RIC   92%   Almost busted
 28- 5  ALO 100%   20- 2  ALO  100%   Busted!
 13-20 (BOT) 70%    8-14 (BOT)  71%   Advantage
 18-15 (BUT) 27%   15- 7 (BUT)  87%   Advantage
=====================================

Ricciardo is near the point of "busting" none other than Vettel. Botas has Massa in a corner and Button "could" be approaching a definitive advantage over Magny (Cours?). I don't even speak of Alonso and Kimi... wait, I just did it! The only pair with a balanced situation is precisely those who are fighting for the title: the two dear friends

wnut · 21 Aug 2014, 05:11 (Ref:3445895)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Schummy

TOT2 means the Totals considering only grid and race results, because nowadays fastest race laps tend to be a bit "weird" (not totally weird, though).

Glad to have Tot2

Button and Magnussen - huge difference!

Thanks Schumi - really enjoy this!

Schummy · 10 Oct 2014, 10:19 (Ref:3462895)

A long due update (after Japan)

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL BAH CHI SPA MON CAN AUT GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP
===================================================================
HAM-ROS 100 111 001 101 101 010 000 010 011 010 001 000 111 111 011
VET-RIC 0-- 111 000 000 010 000 100 000 110 001 100 110 100 011 011
ALO-RAI 111 111 001 111 011 101 101 111 111 111 111 110 100 111 100
MAS-BOT 100 111 011 110 000 011 010 100 000 000 001 010 011 101 010
BUT-MAG 000 001 111 101 101 001 111 000 111 001 101 011 011 010 011
===================================================================

  TOT1       P1     TOT2       P2
=====================================
 23-22 (HAM)  0%   15-15 (===)  0%   Equality
 16-27 (RIC) 87%   10-19 (RIC) 86%   Advantage
 35-10  ALO 100%   25- 5  ALO 100%   Busted!
 19-26 (BOT) 67%   11-19 (BOT) 80%   Advantage
 25-20 (BUT) 45%   18-12 (BUT) 64%   Advantage
=====================================

Not a lot of changes. Absolute equality in Mercedes. Slight redemption by VET, but not really a big thing. Same with Button, with a somewhat bigger effect. As by now, only Alonso has defeated his team mate in a significant way, in terms of probabilities (i.e. it is well proven).

shiny side up! · 11 Oct 2014, 17:28 (Ref:3463392)

Thanks as always, Schummy!

Schummy · 14 Oct 2014, 00:06 (Ref:3464739)

Thank you, shiny!

Look at our number of posts, they are complementary! LOL 1331 and 3113.

**Born Racer** · 14 Oct 2014, 18:06 (Ref:3465016)

Do you have any stats on Perez and Hulkenberg, Schummy? At the start of the season, Hulkenberg had the upper hand but recently it seems Perez is just about outperforming him consistently.

Schummy · 15 Oct 2014, 23:34 (Ref:3465466)

Sadly, I don't have extracted the data about Force India. It would be probably my next team if I went to augment the table.

IMO both drivers are really competent. Hulk is consistent and fast and Perez, even if irregular, seems to have a special race-craft skill that allows him some sound results, we have seen it in former seasons. I am glad seeing Force India, a non traditional F1 team, doing well for so many years.

Schummy · 15 Oct 2014, 23:39 (Ref:3465467)

Updating after Russia.

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL BAH CHI SPA MON CAN AUT GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP RUS
=======================================================================
HAM-ROS 100 111 001 101 101 010 000 010 011 010 001 000 111 111 011 101   
VET-RIC 0-- 111 000 000 010 000 100 000 110 001 100 110 100 011 011 010   
ALO-RAI 111 111 001 111 011 101 101 111 111 111 111 110 100 111 100 111   
MAS-BOT 100 111 011 110 000 011 010 100 000 000 001 010 011 101 010 000   
BUT-MAG 000 001 111 101 101 001 111 000 111 001 101 011 011 010 011 111   
=======================================================================

Code:

  TOT1       P1     TOT2       P2
=====================================
 25-23 (HAM) 11%   17-15 (HAM) 14%   Equalness
 17-29  RIC  90%   10-21  RIC  92.9% Almost busted
 38-10  ALO 100%   27- 5  ALO 100%   Busted!
 19-29 (BOT) 81%   11-21 (BOT) 89%   Advantage
 28-20 (BUT) 69%   20-12 (BUT) 78%   Advantage
=====================================

Basically, dominant drivers have increased their advantage. Ricciardo is in the edge of busting Vettel, and Bottas is nearly the same with Masa. Button is also pushing towards busting Magnussen.

In Merc camp, things go on about the same, except that now HAM is who has an immaterial advantage over ROS; anyway they are very, very close.

Just to add some more detail, RIC will utterly bust VET (>99% confidence) only if he over-score VET in qualy and race in the next three races. Not easy at all, time is running out in the season.

Schummy · 16 Oct 2014, 00:29 (Ref:3465475)

Using qualifying position and race classification, I have done the following graphs showing the percentage of success of a driver against his team mate. In blue the actual percentage of success in each GP, in red a smoothing moving average showing the general trend.

First case: Ricciardo vs Vettel

Ricciardo's advantage was even more than 80% in the first part of the season. Later, Vettel reacted and put the score nearer 50%. The last race just show a possible reactivation of Ricciardo, but it is too soon to really know it. In not any part of the season Vettel was the best of them.

Second case: Hamilton vs Rosberg

This case is interesting. Data shows clearly three parts in the season (so far): The first and the third parts were dominated by HAM, the middle part was for ROS. In every part the dominant driver achieved a level of success of about 80% against his team mate. Curiously, the blue line is almost completely left-right symmetrical.

Schummy · 16 Oct 2014, 13:29 (Ref:3465617)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Born Racer

Do you have any stats on Perez and Hulkenberg, Schummy? At the start of the season, Hulkenberg had the upper hand but recently it seems Perez is just about outperforming him consistently.

I have added data about HUL-PER:

Code:

TEAM    AUS MAL BAH CHI SPA MON CAN AUT GBR GER HUN BEL ITA SIN JAP RUS
=======================================================================
HAM-ROS 100 111 001 101 101 010 000 010 011 010 001 000 111 111 011 101   
VET-RIC 0-- 111 000 000 010 000 100 000 110 001 100 110 100 011 011 010   
ALO-RAI 111 111 001 111 011 101 101 111 111 111 111 110 100 111 100 111   
MAS-BOT 100 111 011 110 000 011 010 100 000 000 001 010 011 101 010 000   
BUT-MAG 000 001 111 101 101 001 111 000 111 001 101 011 011 010 011 111   
HUL-PER 1-1 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-0 0-1 1-1 1-0 1-1 1-1 1-0 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-1 1-0
=======================================================================

Code:

  TOT1       P1     TOT2       P2
=====================================
 25-23 (HAM) 11%   17-15 (HAM) 14%   Equalness
 17-29  RIC  90%   10-21  RIC  92.9% Almost busted
 38-10  ALO 100%   27- 5  ALO 100%   Busted!
 19-29 (BOT) 81%   11-21 (BOT) 89%   Advantage
 28-20 (BUT) 69%   20-12 (BUT) 78%   Advantage
                   19-13 (HUL) 66%   Similar
=====================================

Hulk is ahead of Perez but not significantly. One can see how Perez has fought back in the last part of the season. The recovery started in Hungary or more probably in Spa; curiously in Hungary happened the event of Hulk colliding with Sergio.

Before Hungary the score was 15-5, a nice ratio with a level of confidence of 96% in Hulk busting Perez. Thus, until mid season HUL was beating PER in a serious and consistent way. Since Spa, PER is outscoring HUL 7-3, not statistically significant (64%) but a big stop of Nico's dominance.

In terms of qualy and races, the scores for HUL-PER are 11-5 and 8-8, helping with the idea that Hulk is stronger in Saturdays but Perez is a match in Sundays (when points are given, BTW). Before Hungary, the scores were 8-2 and 7-3 for qualy and race, after Hungary the scores have been 2-3 and 1-4 respectively.

Statistically speaking, the recent bad streak for HUL *could* be due to just random things and not a systematic better level of Perez. So, it is not really significant; actually Perez has never significantly beaten Hulk in any period of the season.

I hope those data help to see how the season has evolved for these two fine drivers.

**chunterer** · 20 Oct 2014, 16:16 (Ref:3466821)

Schummy I might be missing something but I thought that on average the Force India battle was much closer than that?

Checo has been very up and down in qualy, sometimes bizarrely so but at the complete opposite end, has sometimes starred in the races, whereas Hulk has been generally much more consistently quick but without any real starring performances in any races?

I can't recall but has reliability and non finishes been taken into account as I think Perez has had a bit of bad luck on that front, particularly at the beginning of the season and then there was that crazy shunt in Montreal when he lost a good haul of points..

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