It’s The Latte Latte Delta Tea Break 2018

[Peter Mallett]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

Grant- that article is from the BBC website. Can we take it as gospel? Edit- see Peter’s comment.....

Actually I'm surprised it didn't advocate shooting drivers rather than just banning them!

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by delta

Just stopped on way to Dijon for race car fuel abs diesel . Pumps are marked up supreme 98 and the 98ron . Even I can work it out . Diesel and Gazole . Can’t find any croissants . 😂

Maybe because the changes don’t officially start until the 12th- tomorrow.......

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

Actually I'm surprised it didn't advocate shooting drivers rather than just banning them!

To easy a death Peter!

[midgetman]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

This is either a utopian or dystopian view depending on your position. It also ignores the impact of all the unemployed workers since it'snot only money that keeps people happy it's being occupied. Rather a typically ignorant "green" BBC politically correct report IMO.

Well it's a discussion item using the latest thinking.

Something has to be done Just recently I've had to make some journeys outside my usua weekend/early morning/late evening drivetime bubble, and I didn't realise how unpleasant driving has become. My usual 1.5 hour weekend trip to Clay took nigh on 2 hours at midweek lunchtime. Road works, traffic, pedestrians - nightmare!

The article was pretty city-centric though. We have to travel several miles for even basic services and our market towns are becoming shopping deserts unless you want a coffee or a mobile phone. I'm pretty sure Uber won't invest in electric taxis hanging around village street corners for the small population of rural communities.

I can see another emptying of the countryside if this happens, if buses and trains aren't economic for us then Uber won't be interested.


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[Peter Mallett]

Indeed another point missed by the greens. Of course if nobody is working, who pays the electricity bills? Who pays the prices for each journey?

[John Elwin]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

Indeed another point missed by the greens. Of course if nobody is working, who pays the electricity bills? Who pays the prices for each journey?

Isn't their standpoint "somebody else will pay"? It's what they've been used to all their lives.

[Peter Mallett]

Yup.

[Gerard C]

Enjoy your stay and the fabulous show at Dijon. In Paris area, at least from Total, they already have change the labels but each pump has its own explanation. Definitely, SP98 has at least some ethanol in it.

[Robyn Slater]

All we will need then is all the FREE electricity that was predicted when the nuclear power stations came on track.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by midgetman

Well it's a discussion item using the latest thinking.

Something has to be done Just recently I've had to make some journeys outside my usua weekend/early morning/late evening drivetime bubble, and I didn't realise how unpleasant driving has become. My usual 1.5 hour weekend trip to Clay took nigh on 2 hours at midweek lunchtime. Road works, traffic, pedestrians - nightmare!

The article was pretty city-centric though. We have to travel several miles for even basic services and our market towns are becoming shopping deserts unless you want a coffee or a mobile phone. I'm pretty sure Uber won't invest in electric taxis hanging around village street corners for the small population of rural communities.

I can see another emptying of the countryside if this happens, if buses and trains aren't economic for us then Uber won't be interested.


.

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The original report input that prompted the article seems to have come from the USA and one has to wonder how their more extended communications and distances, compared to the UK and most of Europe, would be affected by the adoption of all electric power.

Being a US based concept (not that European politicians would probably spot that form their reading of "Executive Summaries" ) the question about how governments could replace the lost tax revenues from fossil fuels was probably not addressed and therefore the overall economic impact probably was not central to the point being made. That said I think the reporter here is not trying to cover the entire topic but rather point out that how quickly disruption has occurred to long established technologies, especially travel related technology, in the past.

Given that sales (or leases or whatever) of new cars in the UK seem to be in freefall in recent years, whether due to simple economics or because there is a real and "popular" movement against personal transport for some reason, and that will have a knock on effect on the used market in years to come.

If regulation on alleged pollution levels continues to squeeze older vehicles out of the market at the same time it will be interesting to see how things develop and certainly seems likely open opportunities for alternatives to the current personal transport business model.

Once the economics of the ICE vehicle manufacturing industry and the fossil fuels sources and refining have been disrupted beyond the point of economic operation - and that may be very easy to engineer from a political point of view whether intentionally or accidentally - there will be few choices left.

Autonomous vehicles would, potentially at least, be far more effective if they could operate without the need to deal with non-autonomous traffic sharing the same travel areas.

All of this might take longer than 10 years but for it to be substantially in place within 20 years for most of the population of European type countries would not be beyond the realms of possibility. Especially for the more populous areas.

By then the generation of people most active in the economy will be those who are currently going through the education system and all of the green messaging that that involves. Much easier to "influence" their decisions in the "right" direction.

Or at least it will be so long as the messages continue to be repeated and reinforced and the economic system, such as it is, continues to be tweaked to influence their expectations and so their longer term life objectives.

Smart motorway congestion and extended road closures at the first sign of any sort of incident are experiences that may persuade youngsters that they would be daft to have a long term ambition to won a car with plans for using it for enjoyable travel based experiences in their lives.

Who, 20 years ago, spotted the trend that pubs would be in rapid decline as places for socialising with friends on a regular basis?

Much less than 20 years ago there were many costly shopping "mall" developments in progress and starting up to cope service a boom in consumer spending and "catalogue shopping" with home delivery seemed to be struggling in the case of many of the companies then involved. How that situation has changed!

And, as you say Max, the regular day time travel whether local or long distance has become horrible compared to even the worst of what I would have expected over my years of motoring.

Quite where all of the predicted changes will leave historic motorsport in the coming years is not so easy to assess.

When high power electric chargers start to appear in the garages (at the the circuits that have garages) and the first Lotus Cortinas are converted to electric power we may be in a position to gain a better understanding.

[Mike Harte]

Just a thought, but if the UK government is incapable of electrifying all the railways, then how will they "electrify" all road usage.

They are just introducing the "new" Hitachi train sets that have to carry diesel engines to power the electric motors that drive the trains because most of the lines are not yet electrified.

[Mike Harte]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

Maybe because the changes don’t officially start until the 12th- tomorrow.......

And it is happening in Spain, as well as being introduced across the EU and some other European countries. The UK government concluded a consultation on the matter last month.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Robyn Slater

All we will need then is all the FREE electricity that was predicted when the nuclear power stations came on track.

Ah, well if you listen to the Windpower aficionados wind generated electricity is, despite its price, almost free now and getting cheaper by the minute (or at least the future contract for difference bids are claimed to be heading that way.

But apparently if one, as a business with significant electricity use, listens to industry advisers the price of electricity per se - i.e. the stuff you need and use - is much less than the additional charges for developing the infrastructure required to support it and very shortly will come to be almost an insignificant part of the cost for the overall service.

So history repeats in order to avoid making energy too cheap for politics to be profitable.

If the politicians get it wrong - or perhaps I should say badly wrong to differentiate from their normal standard - the "global economy" could be in for a very hard time.

[Peter Mallett]

And of course if it becomes so cheap then the costs for maintenance will have to be paid from another source. Nothing, including energy, is free.

[Lancsbreaker]

Originally Posted by grantp

Well, well, I just stumbled upon this.


Someone out there has come to the same conclusions as I did with regard to electric and autonomous vehicles with some numbers to support the argument.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45786690

I came across that yesterday too (posted on FB), and commented on there that it was a typically urban-centric view, and completely ignored the huge demand there would be for transport from homes to other transport hubs (bus and train stations for example) at peak times, leaving the autonomous fleet as idle for the rest of the time as the current commuter cars - unless called away to take the yummie-mummies chopping, in which case they would inevitably be in the wrong place for the return commuter's journeys. Of course outside of major conurbations the likely wait for an autonomous vehicle could be immense....and talk of a battery expired vehicle summoning another to take its passengers onward begs all sorts of questions - not least who will rescue the dead vehicle?

[The Fat Clerk]

It's like most things, people in the big cities particularly that big one 'darn sarf' think that the world begins and ends with themselves.

While in the 'real world'.......................

[Peter Mallett]

That's a very inaccurate statement. The commentators who live in the cities all think theirs is more important than others. North or South. So when talking about that article being city biased, it could be any Metropolis, the same would apply.

[The Fat Clerk]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

That's a very inaccurate statement. The commentators who live in the cities all think theirs is more important than others. North or South. So when talking about that article being city biased, it could be any Metropolis, the same would apply.

Fair enough, any city.

[midgetman]

Playing Devil's advocate.....

We haven't exactly covered ourselves in glory with the current transport system have we? Whether by train or bus or car, we actually have to go to work to cover the rising cost of going to work......madness!

(And I mean that in the widest sense - your "cheap" buses are of course subsidised by everyone's taxes so I have to work to pay for a townie's cheap buses.)

Sooooo, maybe it IS time for a complete societal change. And maybe the slow down in car sales is the start.

Motorsport as we know it is doomed. Not through regulation, but through lack of interest. We've falling grids at MSA karting but the A&D series are bulging. How long before car racing goes that way? Given that our automated Uber pods won't be able to tow a trailer we'll need someone to do it for us, and a big electric roadtrain provided by a race series organiser makes sense.

Or is sim racing our future? Race at home until you're good enough then in huge stadia watched by other afficionadoes. By all accounts, that's already happening with big money being made by "gamers".



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[Peter Mallett]

As you say someone has to pay and that's really the problem with the article. It says people will be redundant so the question is; who will pay those taxes needed to subsidize the cheap transport?

[John Elwin]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

As you say someone has to pay and that's really the problem with the article. It says people will be redundant so the question is; who will pay those taxes needed to subsidize the cheap transport?

I find it ironic that as the world fills up with more & more people it doesn't need, some are busy devising the means for fewer of them to actually have to do anything.

What will they do with all the spare time? Sit around chatting about 'the good old days'?

[grantp]

Originally Posted by John Elwin

I find it ironic that as the world fills up with more & more people it doesn't need, some are busy devising the means for fewer of them to actually have to do anything.

What will they do with all the spare time? Sit around chatting about 'the good old days'?

Nah, they can all become millionaire "influencers" on Youtube.

Then all of the countries involved in the WWW can claim increased GDP and the well established cycle of borrowing today to keep "the economy" going and "paying back" in the future when "inflation" has reduced the value of what is paid back can continue for a few more decades - maybe a generation or two.

What happens after that? Who knows?

Does anyone alive today (and of an age to have enough knowledge and experience to understand the issues) actually care? If so, why? They would need to be incredibly influential to document today what the "at risk" generations will only start to recognise in 30 or 40 years from now.

And, if our current experiences with that sort of social philosophy gap is any form of guidance, they will probably be wrong in the detail.

Whether they will by chance have managed to stumble upon a persuasive argument for social control that kicks the whole political management thing and economic doom a further century into the future ... will be of no interest to me by then!

[Colin McKay]

Two things spring to mind, neither addressed in the Beeb article (or the thinking that provoked it).



First, the tax on fuel is massive (58p per litre for petrol & diesel in the UK, plus the VAT of course) so it won't be long before a way is devised to add this to the 'cheap' electrickery, how else will we continue to fund the lifestyle of all those redundant oldskool humans?



Second, where is the electricity coming from? It takes many years to plan and build power stations/wind farms/solar farms, and decades for nuclear. Maybe Trump will open up a few more old coal mines, that will keep lots of the above mentioned retirees employed toiling underground.


Progress!

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Colin McKay

Two things spring to mind, neither addressed in the Beeb article (or the thinking that provoked it).

First, the tax on fuel is massive (58p per litre for petrol & diesel in the UK, plus the VAT of course) so it won't be long before a way is devised to add this to the 'cheap' electrickery, how else will we continue to fund the lifestyle of all those redundant oldskool humans?

Second, where is the electricity coming from? It takes many years to plan and build power stations/wind farms/solar farms, and decades for nuclear. Maybe Trump will open up a few more old coal mines, that will keep lots of the above mentioned retirees employed toiling underground.

Progress!

For the first question I was recently told that business electricity costs (for large consumers who often contract ahead but the same sort of numbers probably apply to all consumer) currently carry an overhead of around 60% that funds costs that are not electricity actually consumed.

By 2021 it is predicted that this will become 90%.

It's paid by everyone of course. And twice over in effect since everything we buy carries an energy cost or costs in its manufacture or provision. Most of the cost is about providing the supporting infrastructure for the "green electricity generation revolution".

Once all competition or electricity generation revenue according to the economics of diverse technologies has been eliminated the government will gladly tax whatever the world will be left with with reasonable confidence that there is unlikely to be much development of new alternative options for some time to come - barring some totally unforeseen and dramatic discoveries that they could not possibly suppress.

As for question 2:

As I understand it the USA coal industry has had a recent problem of reduced domestic consumption but they have been seeking to expand exports with rapidly expanding countries like China and India presenting opportunities.

And unlike the UK, a lot of coal mines in the USA are somewhat more able to deploy better technology and, potentially, automation.

Much the same can be said for Australia.

Elsewhere in the world Nuclear facilities are being agreed, planned and built in far less time than it would take in the UK even if there was no resistance to the concept of "Nuclear".

The problem with Nuclear though is that in nearly all of the current forms it only make economic sense as base load - you have to run it all the time. In France there is some flexibility in the system - there has to be with over 70% electricity generated by nuclear - but the generation mix is very different to the UK.

If, in general, energy (all forms) becomes too expensive the economic activity we have become used to may collapse, probably globally.

At that point, when it occurs, most of the concerns that face the peoples of the world today will be of no interest at all to anyone.

I could see a huge boost for the food generation industry - which may be the only industry left and perhaps not so much an industry but an allotment of labour. Retirement will once again become a thing of the past for most people but that is little different to what is already happening today.

There are most likely some very "interesting" times ahead. Hopefully far enough ahead that I will miss being bothered by them too much.

[Mike Bell]

I hear that plans are in place to make the M26 a lorry park in case Brexit goes ‘terribly terribly wrong’ ....

Luckily I rarely use it, but got the impression it already was....