The Historically Accurate EV discussion

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by smokystove

Not sure where you get the information that "frequently in cold weather the vehicles could not get back to the depot at night" from.

Especially seeing as they never got out of the test-phase here in Germany.

DHL/Post bought this start-up, put up a factory in Düren to construct them and built about 10.000, many of which were sold to smaller companies in Europe and in Japan .

They did not however manage to put them into use themselves.

In 2019 they discontinued the project for financial reasons after investing hundreds of million Euros , stating that they weren't equipped to be an automaker and that competition such as the E-Vito and E-Sprinter from Daimler which appeared since the development of the Streetscooter were more effective, being larger capacity to carry goods amongst the reasons.

In fact they sold the company back to the people who first developed it, who with all the newfound R&D now see more potential for the project.

This all from the local german newspapers which you can read and translate for yourself.

Even the article you've quoted yourself offers much of this information but seems you are intent on your own "interpretation".

So you are trying to say that Deutsche Post/ DHL never used any of the 10,000 electric vehicles that they have themselves ?

And I did see one German media story that blamed the Bankruptcy/ shutdown of Streetscooter on Coronavirus .
So twist that one into something that makes sense .

[smokystove]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

So you are trying to say that Deutsche Post/ DHL never used any of the 10,000 electric vehicles that they have themselves ?
.

Whether they EVER used ANY one of these vehicles I do not know for fact so I wouldn't swear on it.

There is no evidence I can find that they did, but you can search for yourself.

What I do know for fact is that they were not rolled out on any widespread basis in the country for DHL/Post usage, if indeed at all.

What I also know for fact is they did not purchase completed vehicles for immediate use on the streets as you seem to misunderstand/misinterpret.

They did purchase the startup company which designed these vehicles, then further developed and ultimately produced some 10.000 many of which were then sold to other entities before they abandoned the project.

Whether you choose to believe reportage on the subject to be truth or a covert leftist conspiracy entirely up to you!

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by smokystove

Whether they EVER used ANY one of these vehicles I do not know for fact so I wouldn't swear on it.

There is no evidence I can find that they did, but you can search for yourself.

What I do know for fact is that they were not rolled out on any widespread basis in the country for DHL/Post usage, if indeed at all.

What I also know for fact is they did not purchase completed vehicles for immediate use on the streets as you seem to misunderstand/misinterpret.

They did purchase the startup company which designed these vehicles, then further developed and ultimately produced some 10.000 many of which were then sold to other entities before they abandoned the project.

Whether you choose to believe reportage on the subject to be truth or a covert leftist conspiracy entirely up to you!

According to Wiki , [ I know not always reliable ] , Deutsche post had 9000 in use by 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter

So who knows where you get your " Facts " from .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

According to Wiki , [ I know not always reliable ] , Deutsche post had 9000 in use by 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter

So who knows where you get your " Facts " from .

Interesting source you provide.

This has clarified that the EVs were in use by Deutsche Post/DHL, and from the 9k they were running in 2018, this has risen 10k in 2019, alongside a fleet of 12k e-bikes and e-trikes.

Not bad for a product that you describe as 'not up to the job'.

Understanding that ll business decisions will be publicised with a certain amount of 'packaging' for shareholder benefits - it is a reach to assume a correlation between a courier business selling a vehicle production arm and a vehicle being a failure.

[smokystove]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

According to Wiki , [ I know not always reliable ] , Deutsche post had 9000 in use by 2018.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/StreetScooter

So who knows where you get your " Facts " from .

Well my "facts" come from articles in Die Welt, Die Zeit, Aachener Nachrichten etc, as well as the very Wiki entry you just also quoted.

And you're absolutely right, I read the whole entry before... except I missed the picture on the side with the little caption.

And I also find it interesting indeed what information it leads to.

If you follow the footnote on the picture yes you're absolutely right, it leads to a 2019 interview from Focus magazine with Deutsche Post's CEO Frank Appell who said that they had some 9000 Streetscooters currently on the streets and others were being sold to third parties.

And as I said, since that time they have sold the entire operation back to the company which founded it.

The coronavirus issues you ridiculed earlier seems to have something to do with this very recent sale of the company.

I'm not getting a clear picture from the press what is going on there honestly, but it is a financial issue between those parties and little to do with the project itself.

So we're both right isn't that lovely?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by smokystove

So we're both right isn't that lovely?

Nooooooo. The worst thing anyone trying to discredit something wants to hear is a common understanding or to be shown as in agreement with your position. They need to perpetuate the story that it is all a conspiracy, and that they are revealing a 'truth'. Demonstrate that their argument supports the 'conspiracy' and they have nothing left to attack.....

[smokystove]

well... all jabs aside, conspiratorial or not ...

This saga of the Streetscooter is very interesting one to watch as it confronts a lot of the talking points in this discussion i.e. infrastructures, production costs, usability, etc.

Being brought to the public by DHL/Deutsche Post makes it all the more interesting because that entity is not typically progressive by nature.

IMO they are a strange hybrid of state bureaucracy(Post) and corporate monolith (DHL) trying to rub shoulders with new tech and startup mentality.

Imagine UK RoyalMail teaming up with Elon Musk and you get the picture!

Keep in mind this isn't some one-off contraption built for a singular purpose, this is a fleet of several types of EVs constructed for mass scale logistics.

I'm sure there will be many lessons learned about EV production in big numbers through that project.

[crmalcolm]

Agreed, it has/is the ideal project to take lessons from going forward. I'm informed that Germany is not usually heralded as being so bold in it's innovation, so this project is definitely interesting to review.

Has it been a failure? I would say no. Even if the eventual situation bears little similarity to this project, numerous lessons will help develop things along.

How many attempts are made at any step forward, before the optimum solution is reached?

[grantp]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

"... before the optimum solution is reached?"

How would you know?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by grantp

How would you know?

There is always room for improvement.

But in terms of vehicle technology, in the context of this thread, I would imagine that is when there is a viable power unit that meets the majority of users needs, is affordable and has sufficient infrastructure in place to support its continued use.

Going back a bit to earlier discussions, the level of development in distribution systems, efficiency of unit and cost to consumer of petrol/diesel technology in 1915 would not meet today's requirements, but what we have now is probably 'near-optimal' for the current market.

This is where we are headed for the EV market, and the StreetScooter is a step towards that.

[smokystove]

Originally Posted by grantp

One has to consider whether investment in infrastructure (and the CO2 output from that effort) required to support the new all electric world 24/7/356 is affordable and justifiable. And delivers fitness for purpose.

This is a reasonable point which I also addressed earlier but I don't think it is a question of "whether if".

It's very clear that the need and the want for progress (well by some anyway) is here.

Also it's quite clear that continuing to use the fossil-fuel-powered ICE as our primary form of transport has itself become neither affordable (both literally and metaphorically) nor is it justifiable, given that we currently have the means to develop alternatives whether they be electric or otherwise.

[grantp]

Originally Posted by smokystove

This is a reasonable point which I also addressed earlier but I don't think it is a question of "whether if".

It's very clear that the need and the want for progress (well by some anyway) is here.

Also it's quite clear that continuing to use the fossil-fuel-powered ICE as our primary form of transport has itself become neither affordable (both literally and metaphorically) nor is it justifiable, given that we currently have the means to develop alternatives whether they be electric or otherwise.

Some are predicting that the economics fallout from the current pandemic crisis could introduce long term global austerity. Indeed that has been predicted to be imminent even before the present crisis arrived.

The current state of fossil powered engineering is overly complicated and therefore, in my opinion, barely fit for purpose.

It has become overly complicated due to several influences acting in the arena seeking to eke our very marginal gains (if they are gains) for safety, "fuel efficiency", pollution control and, to some extent, user appeal - or assumed user appeal.

Nearly all of these objectives have been expensive to address since the technology required is well into the post Pareto region of *)5 of the work required 20% of the effort.

These days, in general, a lot of effort is required for relatively little real gain (sometimes none) and the speed of obsolescence and therefore capital investment wastage, seems to be accelerating.

Electric propulsion could, absent the levels of Tesla like complexity, be comparatively simple for the purpose of mechanical design of transportation.

Energy supply, without fossil generation and nuclear power, is a different matter in most parts of the world.

If we look at the basics of transportation from a Postal service and parcel carrier perspective (where this part of the thread started), what woudl be the basic requirements of an operator?

Perhaps a rather utilitarian vehicle, optimising size and carrying capacity for least material used and energy requirement. Preferably no need for an expensive driver, though perhaps a vehicle to door delivery person would be required. (For collection only customer to vehicle delivery effort might be necessary.)

So no "comfort" other than enough suspension to protect the parcels and ideally no expensive driver.

In general distance (based on typical daily delivery route energy requirements) preferred over performance and the size and capacity of the required batteries (or other energy provision mechanism) kept to a minimum for economic reasons.

So we are looking at autonomous operation.

Now that would be MUCH easier to implement (and much cheaper to implement and run) if all vehicles - including people carrying vehicles - were totally autonomous.

And better still of they were all built and operated to common engineering,, component and power standards run by a common interface.

That way the transition to the progress humans always like to envisage and seek might be both achievable (subject to energy supply reliability OR a change in human habits) and affordable.

Perhaps even effective for delivery what people of the future may (we think) want at a price they are prepared to pay.

Of course there is also the possibility that the "Lockdown" habit becomes something that many societies adopt, whether by choice or necessity, and the 100 year success of the cult of car ownership is assigned to the history books.

[grantp]

Having the means to make something and making a self evident (and policy supported) market for it seem to both be less than certain propositions - though of course that has nearly always been the case with pretty much everything.


China is the largest market in the world for Electric Cars. That does no necessarily mean success. (I am aware that some may, perhaps, not be able to see the link. Please advise if it is not available.)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51711019



On a more general observation about travel ...

What if the entire concept fades away - especially the air travel business - following the effects of the pandemic and a few horror stories about being stranded somewhere unexpectedly?

There are reports that Virgin may be seeking help very soon. Are they just pre-announcing that will jump on the bandwagon to see what it might offer or are they in real trouble that will quickly prove terminal? (No pun intended.)

Will unused airports simply end up as mass morgues full of EV hearses?

[crmalcolm]

Mercedes-Benz are optimistic of developments in battery technology over the next few years.

'Radical environmentally friendly organic batteries are a “very promising technology” being evaulated by Mercedes-Benz for future use in road cars – but it's at least 15 years away from mainstream production.

Organic batteries are made from graphene-based organic-cell chemistry with a water-based electrolyte. That means they don't use any rare or toxic materials or metals, making them entirely recyclable through composting. Early testing shows they also offer both a high energy density and quick-charging capability.'

'Mercedes is working to improve the efficiency of lithium ion batteries – Hinnentach estimates that range could still be boosted by up to 25%

[...]

Solid state adds lots of positive aspects. It’s not a miracle but would be a huge step forward. [...] Mercedes is aiming to first introduce them into production in an eCitaro bus in the second half of this decade.

[...] lithium-metal anodes, lithium-sulphur batteries and lithium-oxygen batteries.
[...]
It is challenging, but you need novel ideas. We need to be very focused on the future.[...] if you didn’t take risks in R&D by backing multiple horses, then you could end up losing.'

[grantp]

It seems that, as usual, it is one thing to create a wonder material like graphene and quite another thing to develop some real world uses for it outside a laboratory.

No surprise and the same comment applies widely.

However, many current policies seem to rely entirely on the hope that new technologies, whether they are already existing knowledge like graphene that 'simply' needs to discover ways to exploit it for practical purposes) or completely new as yet unproven or even undiscovered materials and methods, will suddenly appear at scale and answer the many unanswered questions the policies pose.

Against that background our lords and masters legislate to change the world.

That situation has all the signs of being a very expensive path to follow with significant wastage of "cash" and human development resources along the way.

If it also ends up with extremely complex solutions - something we humans have been indulging in for some time - and the wastage associated with them (obsolescence, too expensive to repair, etc,) that does not suggest a good long term prognosis.

Especially if things are rushed through based mainly on government subsidy policies and the concept of at least gaining some returns from R&D investment even if the product is not really very good. Or even totally useless in real practical terms.

[Mike Bell]

From Autocar yesterday....

[crmalcolm]

Interesting article here, that recognises some of the challenges that need to be overcome.

'The report note that sales of ultra-low-emissions vehicles – which includes electric cars – have increased massively in recent years, from around 1300 in 2010 to more than 230,000 today.

It added that more EV charging infrastructure will be required to continue that growth, given that 20-30% of British motorists don't have access to off-street parking where private chargers could be located. It also calls for a "roaming solution" that would allow EV drivers to access any public charger through a single payment method.'

[midgetman]

Imagine if we didn't own our own "cars". Imagine if Hertz Car Rental delivered one to your door for a long journey whereupon you drove it until it ran out of charge, then swapped for another, Formula E style. There could be Hertz depots at service stations like the Boris Bike, one simply relays onwards in a different car after a stop for coffee.

So here in the countryside we'd need a small EV - Smart car sized? - for local shopping, Hertz Relay for family holiday, Zoom/Skype/etc for work meetings. I think the current unpleasantness will make us all re-assess how to go about our daily lives.

How that will affect historic racers, kart teams etc I haven't worked out yet. Maybe ICEs will be restricted to businesses, meaning more work for the likes of Delta and me as we co-ordinate groups of racing enthusiasts and carry their cars/karts en masse to race meetings. Whatever, radical thinking is needed before we lose our hobby. Although TBF I'm sure we'll all be past racing by the time the big changes happen, and maybe our heirs won't want ICE racing in the same way that we yearn for it.



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[grantp]

Originally Posted by midgetman

So here in the countryside we'd need a small EV - Smart car sized? - for local shopping, Hertz Relay for family holiday, Zoom/Skype/etc for work meetings. I think the current unpleasantness will make us all re-assess how to go about our daily lives.

Exactly that Max.

The sort of flexibility that means one does not have to "invest" in any vehicle, let alone a mix of vehicles for different purposes, so you can just rent what you need when you need it. In theory.

The cost of the rental cover insurance (obviously the risk is minimised in a totally autonomous situation) and road usage (per mile/km charges with automated variable local billing where required. Also recharge costs if one chooses to recharge rather than swap vehicles.

If there was a centralised set of standards I could see a battery swap option becoming realistic in about the same down time as a current refuelling stop. But then if charging technology improves - especially the first 20% and the last 20 - 30% of capacity - it may not be worth adding the complexity of fast battery swaps.

And of course the upside is that if all of the batteries used for enabling transport are gathered at a "depot" during low demand periods they could be cost effectively charged at appropriate times AND act as the fabled "grid support " car to grid resource that would be almost impossible to implement sensibly and cost effectively with a multitude of privately owned vehicles.

Fully autonomous trucks with fully automated battery swap technology could be extremely efficient for the transportation industry.

[Tel 911S]

The idea of an electric powered transport system is just fantasy .
If all of the HGVs were electric , needing charging up every night , then the country would need a 300% increase in generation capacity , & that is without allowing for electric cars or electric home heating .

And a 6 axle HGV would not be able to carry a 40 Ft container as it would be a lot over weight . Unless they are allowed to increase to over 50 Ton MGW, which I am sure would not go done well with the highways authorities & the green campaigners .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by grantp

If there was a centralised set of standards I could see a battery swap option becoming realistic in about the same down time as a current refuelling stop. But then if charging technology improves - especially the first 20% and the last 20 - 30% of capacity - it may not be worth adding the complexity of fast battery swaps.

^^ This ^^ is a possible solution I have been mulling over for some time now.

One of the biggest drawbacks of current EVs compared to ICE is not the range as such, but the ability to replenish the energy to achieve that range.
Refuelling an ICE car takes a few minutes, and even on those cars with minimal tanks (extreme cars aside) the amount of 'range' they replenish is manageable.
EVs take a period of hours currently, and a lot of focus has been on speeding up the charge, rather than the transfer of charge to the vehicle.

If a standardised battery was available (as petrol/diesel is standardised), then drivers would have the option of purchasing modules in the same way lpg tanks are currently changed for camping/bbqs etc.

For instance - if the standard fuel cell size has a 10kWh capacity, drivers of small cars might 'exchange' one or two cells when they call into the service station.
Larger cars might see the driver 'exchange' 5 or more cells, to give them an increased range or greater power.
Over time, the fuel distribution network becomes replaced with a battery cell network that can reach to rural and urban locations equally.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

If all of the HGVs were electric , needing charging up every night , then the country would need a 300% increase in generation capacity , & that is without allowing for electric cars or electric home heating .

That is assuming that all current HGV movements continued in their current manner.
The move to EV is likely to see a paradigm shift. Electrified rail freight may see an increase in use, and as you point out - an increase in generation capacity is likely to be required - why is that not possible?

It is easy to dismiss a significant increase in EV use against the current infrastructure and technology available.Much harder, but ultimately more productive, to identify how it can be possible in the future.

Increased production of electricity to the grid - a starting point. More to come....

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

The idea of an electric powered transport system is just fantasy .
If all of the HGVs were electric , needing charging up every night , then the country would need a 300% increase in generation capacity , & that is without allowing for electric cars or electric home heating .

And a 6 axle HGV would not be able to carry a 40 Ft container as it would be a lot over weight . Unless they are allowed to increase to over 50 Ton MGW, which I am sure would not go done well with the highways authorities & the green campaigners .

I can’t see pure Electric HGVs ever becoming mainstream except possibly the smaller rigids used for local deliveries. More likely the biggies would be hydrogen fuel cell / electric. Hydrogen supply at depots not impossible. My take is that tech would not incur a weight increase. I know the Tesla pure EV ‘semi ‘ contradicts that, but in the US that could be a feasible option between clearly defined depots where appropriate charging facilities are available. I think that’s their target for specific companies.

So no doom as far as I’m concerned......

[midgetman]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

The idea of an electric powered transport system is just fantasy .
If all of the HGVs were electric , needing charging up every night , then the country would need a 300% increase in generation capacity , & that is without allowing for electric cars or electric home heating .

And a 6 axle HGV would not be able to carry a 40 Ft container as it would be a lot over weight . Unless they are allowed to increase to over 50 Ton MGW, which I am sure would not go done well with the highways authorities & the green campaigners .

You might care to read what I wrote rather than what you thought I wrote:

Maybe ICEs will be restricted to businesses, meaning more work for the likes of Delta and me as we co-ordinate groups of racing enthusiasts and carry their cars/karts en masse to race meetings.


I appreciate that as of now electric HGVs are a leap too far. So diesel engines for the foreseeable future, but to registered traders only. Private individuals will have to get used to their large toys being collected by a specialist who transports say half a dozen cars to a race meeting. Yes it'll increase your expenses, but compared to the costs of registering/insuring/MOT-ing a large vehicle/trailer it may not alter costs as much as we fear, especially if shared between a number of competitors.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by midgetman

You might care to read what I wrote rather than what you thought I wrote:

Maybe ICEs will be restricted to businesses, meaning more work for the likes of Delta and me as we co-ordinate groups of racing enthusiasts and carry their cars/karts en masse to race meetings.


I appreciate that as of now electric HGVs are a leap too far. So diesel engines for the foreseeable future, but to registered traders only. Private individuals will have to get used to their large toys being collected by a specialist who transports say half a dozen cars to a race meeting. Yes it'll increase your expenses, but compared to the costs of registering/insuring/MOT-ing a large vehicle/trailer it may not alter costs as much as we fear, especially if shared between a number of competitors.

You might have noticed that I was referring to Grantp ,s post on trucks & the transport industry .