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Old 4 Jun 2019, 11:50 (Ref:3907847)   #1
Schummy
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F1 2019: Some stats regarding the title chase

After 6 GPs, I think there are already data to make a number of significant assumptions about this season's title.


The following conclusions are "based" on an indicator that could be named "One-Race Gap" or something like that.


WARNING! The next part is a sort of explanation of the ORG indicator
Please, jump ahead if you are not interested in freaky things.

======================================================

ORG is the gap in points to overcome in just one race that is equivalent to the actual gap in points with N races to go. For example, according to this indicator, a 20 points gap with 16 races to go is equivalent to a 5 points gap with one race to go. ORG is built using the assumption that the two drivers involved in the gap are going to perform similarly well in the remaining races and that the performance in those races are nor going to have any relevant "trend" or "streak" (that is what F1 usually shows in actual data). In fact, ORG is ultimately based in the simple additive property of variances.

====================================================



Ok, enough of boring details. Let's pass now to... boring numbers .


Current (2019/06/04) data about gaps in points respect the leader (Lewis Hamilton):
Code:
    Gap   ORG  
BOT -17   4.4  
VET -55  14.2  
VER -59  15.2  
LEC -80  20.7  
GAS-105  27.1
So, for example, Vettel has a 55 points gap to Hamilton with 15 races to go. It is equivalent to a 15.2 gap with one race to go. Obviously, putting it this way one realizes Sebastian Vettel has a very tough task to overcome that gap. In a somehow naive point of view one could think that 15 races to go means there are still 375 points to take and 55 points is only a fraction of it. But that is not how probability works in real world.


(An "interesting" case is Gasly. His ORG is 27.1, that is literally impossible to achieve in one race, but actually his 105 gap with 15 races to go is possible to be done. The reason for this "discrepancy" is ORG is an approximate probabilistic model, not a perfect exactness. In fact, according to historic F1 scores, a 27.1 ORG value means somewhat less than 1% of probability of being overcome, i.e. extremely unlikely, but not impossible.)


In a (perhaps) intuitive way, ORG = 10 means approx a probability of 10% of remount that gap. So, ORG >= 10 means driver has a small chance to surpass the points leader (Hamilton). ORG = means approx a 1% of chance to overcome that gap; for me it means that it's very unlikely to happen.


In conclusion of this extremely raw and rough post, only Bottas is in a not hard position to fight with Hamilton. Moreover, only 5 drivers has a likely chance to be champion (from Hamilton to Leclerc). In fact, Leclerc is in a desperate position and Vettel and Verstappen are already in a tough place.


It is not a enjoyable thing, it means current season is, mostly, decided, at least in a great part.



There is an escape route in this barren scenery: if Ferrari or RedBull suddenly improves, then the ORG assumption of similar future performances between drivers will be broken and probabilities will be less severe.

Sorry for this lengthy, thick post.
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