The Historically Accurate EV discussion

[crmalcolm]

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/...ight-transport

Another possible for freight?

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

The idea of an electric powered transport system is just fantasy .
If all of the HGVs were electric , needing charging up every night , then the country would need a 300% increase in generation capacity , & that is without allowing for electric cars or electric home heating .

And a 6 axle HGV would not be able to carry a 40 Ft container as it would be a lot over weight . Unless they are allowed to increase to over 50 Ton MGW, which I am sure would not go done well with the highways authorities & the green campaigners .

Indeed, but that assumes that the current scale of size benefit and the economics of operation stay the same.

In fact I suspect that a lot of transport is highly inefficient due to the scale of size influence on economics.

With the growth of home delivery we see some rather absurd large load transport constraints where goods are shipped around the world in bulk containers and reach a large storage warehouse somewhere.

Then they are sold on in small quantities and shipped out of the large storage facility to a smaller distribution facility, unloaded, re-sorted, loaded onto another vehicle and subsequently delivered.

Usually this is based on filling a truck for an overnight trans-shipment. That fits nicely with oreder receipts during the day, picking and packing, load prep., load, journey at what one would hope to be quiet time and the potential that at least some of th load will be scheduled for "Next Day" delivery.

When I order stuff that is delivered by a carrier using a reasonably decent tracking application I usually spot the order passing close by before it gets delivered. Sometimes (rarely) more than once.

So orders from vendors an hour or so north of me are often shipped to a "central hub" an hour or so south of me, then sent to a regional distribution centre - probably another hour journey - unloaded again and transferred to a delivery van that will eventually deliver the goods to my door.

With autonomy one might deploy smaller vehicles, deliver straight to the distribution hub or, potentially in some situations, straight to the door.

Absent a need for the driver and restricted driving hours the entire transport network could be re-thought.

In theory the maintenance requirements (and thus the service overheads and out of service down time) would be greatly reduced as well.

Just a few of the upsides one might seek out.

If the ICE market is destroyed, and the fossil fuel supplier with it, then the cost of diesel will lose the benefit off economy of scale and in general one my see the running costs of a commercial fleets increasing significantly. That could be another important factor.

A major downside, if autonomy takes over, could the loss of jobs that autonomy implies. Whether that is good or bad on net balance from a socio-economic POV is open to discussion.

If it happens that things do head that way the transition period could be "interesting".

[midgetman]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

You might have noticed that I was referring to Grantp ,s post on trucks & the transport industry .

My apologies.

M


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[midgetman]

I think we're all heading to the idea that to get the best from the future we're going to have to drop the ideas of the present.

We appear to have painted ourselves off the edge of a cliff with our current business and lifestyle models. I wonder if the pandemic will be the start of new thinking or whether we'll go back to the old ways?

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[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by midgetman

We appear to have painted ourselves off the edge of a cliff with our current business and lifestyle models. I wonder if the pandemic will be the start of new thinking or whether we'll go back to the old ways?

It remains to be seen, but I know the possibility of transitioning to a Work From Home as the default is seriously being looked at in my work environment.

If that does become the case - the daily commute will be less of a necessity.

So what will that mean?

EVs are (currently) better suited to commuting than long journeys, so will less people feel the need to move to EV?
Or, will it mean they are being recharged less often, so actually will help the supply grid issue?

[grantp]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

It remains to be seen, but I know the possibility of transitioning to a Work From Home as the default is seriously being looked at in my work environment.

If that does become the case - the daily commute will be less of a necessity.

So what will that mean?

EVs are (currently) better suited to commuting than long journeys, so will less people feel the need to move to EV?
Or, will it mean they are being recharged less often, so actually will help the supply grid issue?

The challenge may be that whilst personal travel expectations are, for many, currently relatively predictable and presumably would in the future settle into some alternative yet relatively predictable pattern, electric energy supply, via renewables, is by no means so predictable.

The nearest one can get is probably the known baseline variability of solar potential - depending on the weather.

Whether consumers will, long term, come to accept that variable pricing with half hour (or less) price periods, is something they are comfortable with as a concept is not easy to assess. At the moment the overnight pricing can be very low. Great for regular commuters. Not so good for nightshift workers wishing to use home charging.

However if the potential low overnight demand becomes a higher demand, especially when supply is constrained for some reason - like low wind output, the low pricing may disappear.

Will people accept that?

Mass rental schemes could readily set prices that smooth the problem and would fit well with people who are becoming ever more used to renting their lives. (All except the kids although even then there are some possibilities ...)

[VIVA GT]

It's interesting to read the ideas everyone is putting forward for how we move on from here, and also interesting to see how some (very good) suggestions mirror what has happened in the past.
I like the idea of hiring a car for long distance travel and then swapping it for another one with a full battery when you need to, this seems a very logical suggestion.(It also reminds me of what used to happen in the American wild west where the Wells Fargo company would stop on route and get fresh horses).
I also see the logic of moving more freight by rail for it to be dropped off at smaller local distribution centres where it can be moved on to it's final destination by smaller and possibly electric vehicles. Apart from the electric vehicles bit, this reminds me of how freight used to be moved around the UK when I was growing up in the 50's & 60's. The only problem with this plan is that (here in Leicestershire and the surrounding counties) they are still building huge warehouse distribution centres that can only be serviced by road. Along the A5 we have Magna Park near to Lutterworth and other huge developments either side of Hinckley. Further down the A5 there is DIRFT near to Daventry which admittedly has some rail connection, but I'm sure there is none where the latest (massive) development is going on between the M1 & A5 where the radio masts used to be. So, I see that there will still be a need for huge DERV powered lorries moving freight to and from these areas and unfortunately, the railway infrastructure that we used to have when I was a lad, sidings, warehouses and even a lot of the actual railway lines have been built over years ago, so to reproduce something for that will take some time and cost a lot of money. It will be interesting to see how this pans out...

[Peter Mallett]

Yes the logic is sound but the execution is somewhat challenging. DIRFT in Daventry was hailed as the main Rail/Road distribution centre. Not sure if it is as successful as we would wish since it resulted in more logjams on the M1.

[John Elwin]

Originally Posted by VIVA GT

It's interesting to read the ideas everyone is putting forward for how we move on from here, and also interesting to see how some (very good) suggestions mirror what has happened in the past.
I like the idea of hiring a car for long distance travel and then swapping it for another one with a full battery when you need to, this seems a very logical suggestion.(It also reminds me of what used to happen in the American wild west where the Wells Fargo company would stop on route and get fresh horses).
I also see the logic of moving more freight by rail for it to be dropped off at smaller local distribution centres where it can be moved on to it's final destination by smaller and possibly electric vehicles. Apart from the electric vehicles bit, this reminds me of how freight used to be moved around the UK when I was growing up in the 50's & 60's. The only problem with this plan is that (here in Leicestershire and the surrounding counties) they are still building huge warehouse distribution centres that can only be serviced by road. Along the A5 we have Magna Park near to Lutterworth and other huge developments either side of Hinckley. Further down the A5 there is DIRFT near to Daventry which admittedly has some rail connection, but I'm sure there is none where the latest (massive) development is going on between the M1 & A5 where the radio masts used to be. So, I see that there will still be a need for huge DERV powered lorries moving freight to and from these areas and unfortunately, the railway infrastructure that we used to have when I was a lad, sidings, warehouses and even a lot of the actual railway lines have been built over years ago, so to reproduce something for that will take some time and cost a lot of money. It will be interesting to see how this pans out...

What powered the little Scammell Scarabs that BR used to use to trundle parcels around town?

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by grantp

The challenge may be that whilst personal travel expectations are, for many, currently relatively predictable and presumably would in the future settle into some alternative yet relatively predictable pattern, electric energy supply, via renewables, is by no means so predictable.

The nearest one can get is probably the known baseline variability of solar potential - depending on the weather.

Whether consumers will, long term, come to accept that variable pricing with half hour (or less) price periods, is something they are comfortable with as a concept is not easy to assess. At the moment the overnight pricing can be very low. Great for regular commuters. Not so good for nightshift workers wishing to use home charging.

However if the potential low overnight demand becomes a higher demand, especially when supply is constrained for some reason - like low wind output, the low pricing may disappear.

Will people accept that?

Mass rental schemes could readily set prices that smooth the problem and would fit well with people who are becoming ever more used to renting their lives. (All except the kids although even then there are some possibilities ...)

Electric prices in the UK have actually doubled in the last 15 years . The main reason being the very high price of renewable generation . As well as the fact that wind & solar have very high subsidies which are all added on to the price for customers .
The lowest priced offshore wind that is working costs £139 per MWh , compared to about £30 odd MWh for gas , [ one old gas power station is still only £20 odd per MWh ] .
Another problem with wind & solar is that , being non synchronous , it destabilises the grid unless there is a large proportion of the total on the grid coming from conventional generation .

So the large generation increase needed for the change to EVs & the "Zero Carbon " idea will be hugely expensive ,[ Figures show over £3,000,000,000,000, ] ,or more likely , will never happen as the economy will take a long time to recover from the Coronavirus Pandemic .

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by John Elwin

What powered the little Scammell Scarabs that BR used to use to trundle parcels around town?

I remember those little Scammells , so I looked it up to find they had a 2 ltr odd Sidevalve engine , or later a Perkins diesel .


And just to keep up the Historically Accurate part of this thread , here are a lot of early Evs .
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/over...tric-cars.html

[John Elwin]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

I remember those little Scammells , so I looked it up to find they had a 2 ltr odd Sidevalve engine , or later a Perkins diesel .


And just to keep up the Historically Accurate part of this thread , here are a lot of early Evs .
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/over...tric-cars.html

Oh really - thanks for looking, I should have done! I did wonder if they might have been electric.

[crmalcolm]

https://www.nationalgrid.com/5-myths...ehicles-busted

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

And just to keep up the Historically Accurate part of this thread , here are a lot of early Evs .
https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/over...tric-cars.html

What useless information in that article.

Everyone knows that only the 0-60 time is important for EV's - doesn't get a mention as far as I can see ...

[grantp]

A fairly rare early "modern" EV from VW.



https://youtu.be/kYHmSDwuBUY?t=1667

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

https://www.nationalgrid.com/5-myths...ehicles-busted

When you see that his job is to promote EVs , you do expect to get a load of rubbish . But that lot is way over the top .
According to him , if everybody went EV it would only be a 10% increase on the grid ??????????????.
The average daily load is somewhere around 30GWh .
If every one went EV that would be about 250GWh increase , or 800% .
Unless he is trying to say you can only charge up once a month when they decide that there is some spare capacity .

And as for things like EVs depreciate less than other cars ????????????

If that sort of rubbish is the best propaganda that they have for EVs , then your job of trying to promote them is going to be nearly impossible .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

According to him , if everybody went EV it would only be a 10% increase on the grid ??????????????.
The average daily load is somewhere around 30GWh .
If every one went EV that would be about 250GWh increase , or 800% .
Unless he is trying to say you can only charge up once a month when they decide that there is some spare capacity .

Your mixing GWh and GW again, which is causing you to reach the wrong conclusion.

Take current car usage in the UK:

8,000 miles per car (average) and 32.5 million cars on the road.
Annual UK mileage is 260,000,000,000 miles per year, or just over 712 million miles per day.

An I-pace has a range of 250 miles (real world) on a full charge, so that means less than 3 million full charges per day are required across the UK.

3 million charges, at 90kWh means a total energy consumption from the grid of 270GWh per day, which if it could be spread over a 24hr period represents a continuous demand of 11.25GW.

You state the current average demand is 30GWh.
In actual fact, if you used the correct SI, then the average demand is 30GW, or 720GWh per day.

I admit, 10% increase may be optimistic, but with current EV technology and no change in driving patterns, the extra demand is (at worse) 33%

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by John Elwin

What powered the little Scammell Scarabs that BR used to use to trundle parcels around town?

To be honest John, seeing pictures of Scammel Scarabs on Facebook recently was what originally made me thing back to the old British Railways depot I remembered as a kid.
In answer to your question I do believe they were available with either Petrol or Diesel engines. Of course there was also the Jensen Jen Tug which was available with petrol or electric motive power: http://www.historywebsite.co.uk/Muse...ial/Jensen.htm

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

When you see that his job is to promote EVs , you do expect to get a load of rubbish . But that lot is way over the top .
According to him , if everybody went EV it would only be a 10% increase on the grid ??????????????.
The average daily load is somewhere around 30GWh .
If every one went EV that would be about 250GWh increase , or 800% .
Unless he is trying to say you can only charge up once a month when they decide that there is some spare capacity .

And as for things like EVs depreciate less than other cars ????????????

If that sort of rubbish is the best propaganda that they have for EVs , then your job of trying to promote them is going to be nearly impossible .

Most of the people who might buy EVs (beyond those already converted to the idea) may well be covering low mileage and so perhaps only charging, at home, once a week. Especially if they are 2 car families with only one EV.

Right now demand would not be a problem I would guess but I doubt even the most avid anti "business as usual" individual would think the current global situation is a good way to continue. (Well, maybe a few do.)

On of the main benefits for the justification of EV's is to be able to absorb output at times of over capacity. Individual "ownership", in whatever form, may not be the optimal situation for that social enterprise objective.

As for depreciation ... I have recently heard claims that the used market is beginning to support the prices of used EVs.

I think people can see the anti-ICE legislation and local rules (City bans) approaching fast and see a used EV as a better option than a new "acceptable for now" overly complicated low emissions (by this week's standards) ICE motor.

Little of the present ICE new car market seems to be built with a view to longevity. Why would they bother when they need the churn to keep selling them into a market that looks like being forced to go EV within 10 years.

Current manufacturers just need to exist, somehow, for long enough to manage the transition and all the changes it will bring.

Plan to support a full range of ICE vehicles with parts and software in a decade from now? Probably not. No one will be using them anyway if local politicians get their way.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Your mixing GWh and GW again, which is causing you to reach the wrong conclusion.

Take current car usage in the UK:

8,000 miles per car (average) and 32.5 million cars on the road.
Annual UK mileage is 260,000,000,000 miles per year, or just over 712 million miles per day.

An I-pace has a range of 250 miles (real world) on a full charge, so that means less than 3 million full charges per day are required across the UK.

3 million charges, at 90kWh means a total energy consumption from the grid of 270GWh per day, which if it could be spread over a 24hr period represents a continuous demand of 11.25GW.

You state the current average demand is 30GWh.
In actual fact, if you used the correct SI, then the average demand is 30GW, or 720GWh per day.

I admit, 10% increase may be optimistic, but with current EV technology and no change in driving patterns, the extra demand is (at worse) 33%

GWh is a measurement of energy , & is the correct term for the output ,[ or demand ], of a power station . It then becomes GW when it is being turned into power by the end user .
And no matter how you try to use spurious figures , the spare capacity on the grid means that less than 2 million EVs can only be charged at any one time .
Although , in the Summer months , that might run to 2 lots of 2 Million in one day .

So yes , if people only charge up once every 3 weeks or more , then the extra demand will only be 33% . But who will decide when people are allowed to plug in or not .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

GWh is a measurement of energy , & is the correct term for the output ,[ or demand ], of a power station . It then becomes GW when it is being turned into power by the end user .
And no matter how you try to use spurious figures , the spare capacity on the grid means that less than 2 million EVs can only be charged at any one time .
Although , in the Summer months , that might run to 2 lots of 2 Million in one day .

So yes , if people only charge up once every 3 weeks or more , then the extra demand will only be 33% . But who will decide when people are allowed to plug in or not .

The figures are not spurious, they come from the National Grid and DVLA records.

You are right, GWh is a measure of energy, but (instantaneous) demand from the grid is not measured as units of energy, but units of power.

https://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/02...y-explanation/

You have repeatedly stated that the maximum demand on the grid has been in the region of 60GW, and averages about 30GW. But you mix units of energy and power which gives a false representation of the challenge being faced. Power Stations are never rated in Wh, but in W (or more usually MW, not MWh).

Challenge one - does the grid generate enough energy (GWh) in a 24-hour period to charge 30 million EVs?
Challenge two - does the grid generate enough power (GW) to cope with all 30 million EVs charging simultaneously?

Two different (but related) challenges that have different solutions.

Think of it in terms of petrol/diesel supply:
A) Does the refinement capacity of the UK meet the daily consumption of fuel?
B) Does the distribution network meet the needs of all 30 million ICE cars filling up simultaneously?

The answer to A is yes - we do not see fuel shortages.
The answer to B is no - but people do not fill their cars every day at the same time.

[midgetman]

Playing Devil's advocate.....yes probably people WILL "fill up" at the same time. Get home from work, plug in overnight, full charge for work the next morning.

I really do think we're going to have to find a new way of life.

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[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

The figures are not spurious, they come from the National Grid and DVLA records.

You are right, GWh is a measure of energy, but (instantaneous) demand from the grid is not measured as units of energy, but units of power.

https://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/02...y-explanation/

You have repeatedly stated that the maximum demand on the grid has been in the region of 60GW, and averages about 30GW. But you mix units of energy and power which gives a false representation of the challenge being faced. Power Stations are never rated in Wh, but in W (or more usually MW, not MWh).

Challenge one - does the grid generate enough energy (GWh) in a 24-hour period to charge 30 million EVs?
Challenge two - does the grid generate enough power (GW) to cope with all 30 million EVs charging simultaneously?

Two different (but related) challenges that have different solutions.

Think of it in terms of petrol/diesel supply:
A) Does the refinement capacity of the UK meet the daily consumption of fuel?
B) Does the distribution network meet the needs of all 30 million ICE cars filling up simultaneously?

The answer to A is yes - we do not see fuel shortages.
The answer to B is no - but people do not fill their cars every day at the same time.

Agree that energy & power are confusing . But power only comes when energy is being use . So if the output from a power station is being stored , [ like into batteries ] it is still only energy until it is used , so the correct measurement is KWh/ MWh /GWh .

As for the total grid output . Present max is about 45GWh , with interconnectors able to give about another 10GWh , & emergency storage ,[ Dinowig etc etc ] able to produce perhaps another 10 for a short time , but then have to draw power from the grid for days to refill .

So if you average EV chargers out at 7KW , and your Jag I Pace battery of 90KWh . Then in 24 hrs it would be possible to charge up about 15 million of them if nothing else was using the grid .Allowing for max power imports all day , [which never happens except mid summer ].

And as for simultaneously , [ 7 KW chargers , allowing charger & grid power loss of 15% ] , about 7.5 Million if nothing else on the grid .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

As for the total grid output . Present max is about 45GWh , with interconnectors able to give about another 10GWh , & emergency storage ,[ Dinowig etc etc ] able to produce perhaps another 10 for a short time , but then have to draw power from the grid for days to refill .

Yesterday, the national grid supplied 621.744 GWh to the UK.

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

Agree that energy & power are confusing . But power only comes when energy is being use . So if the output from a power station is being stored , [ like into batteries ] it is still only energy until it is used , so the correct measurement is KWh/ MWh /GWh .

As for the total grid output . Present max is about 45GWh , with interconnectors able to give about another 10GWh , & emergency storage ,[ Dinowig etc etc ] able to produce perhaps another 10 for a short time , but then have to draw power from the grid for days to refill .

So if you average EV chargers out at 7KW , and your Jag I Pace battery of 90KWh . Then in 24 hrs it would be possible to charge up about 15 million of them if nothing else was using the grid .Allowing for max power imports all day , [which never happens except mid summer ].

And as for simultaneously , [ 7 KW chargers , allowing charger & grid power loss of 15% ] , about 7.5 Million if nothing else on the grid .

You seem to be confusing yourself here, and still using W and Wh (power and energy) incorrectly.

You state 'power only comes when energy is being use', but still use the terms - power station, power grid, draw power, etc.

BC Campus Open Text:
'electric power - the rate at which electrical energy is supplied by a source or dissipated by a device'

University of Calgary:
'Power is how fast energy is used or transmitted - power is the amount of energy divided by the time it took to use the energy. [...]
Multiplying a value of power and the period of time over which it is used gives an amount of energy. This is why a kilowatt is a unit of power but a kilowatt-hour (1 kilowatt times 1 hour) is a unit of energy.'

CleanTechnica Power vs Energy Confusion:
'When we’re talking about electrical energy, the most common unit is the watt-hour. One watt of electrical power, maintained for one hour, equals one watt-hour of energy. A thousand of these is a kilowatt-hour (kWh), and note that a thousand watts for one hour, or one watt for a thousand hours, both equal one kWh. They’re the same amount of energy. [...]Power is defined as the rate of producing or consuming energy. Say this ten times: “Power and energy are not the same thing! Power is energy per unit of time.”'