Button in 2006 - something to consider.

[Super Tourer]

You may recall that out of the 2004 Buttongate came a contractural requirement that come the 21st of August 2005 (The Turkish GP), IF Button's points score is less than 70% of the leading driver in the WDC, he is free to walk to Williams in 2006. This contractual requirement is believed to be part of a Williams contract that Button allegedly signed during the BAR debacle last year.

Looking at the figures required in the timescale available, you would consider it cut and dried. Simple, or maybe not.

Autosport allude to the potential continuing bubbling issue between BMW and Williams, that could put a different light on the deal.

Back in 2002 Eddie Jordan rushed out an announcement that he had secured 'works' Ford engines for 2003, to replace the works Honda engine he was losing. This came as surprise to much of the paddock, including (allegedly) Ford and it's then F1 supremo Niki Lauda. As far as Ford and Cosworth were concerned, they were talking to EJ about a supply of customer engines, with some potential marketing payback for Ford Europe. You may recall that Ford branding did not figure very much on the car and AFAIK nothing of note was made of the deal by Ford or anyone else.

This announcement by EJ was said to be neccesary to retain Fisichella's services for 2003, his contract allegedly stipulating that a 'works' engine supply should be guaranteed.

The Buttongate case itself apparently hinged on one word, 'intended', in that Honda said it 'intended' to continue it's engine supply to BAR. Button's lawyers read this as not a 'firm commitment' and sought to use this clause in his contract (that Honda's commitment must continue) to unlock Button from the agreement.

Williams of course has a contract with BMW until 2009 and when apparently (and strangely) 'announcing' the Sauber-BMW deal some months ago, Sir Frank Williams was quick to point out that Williams F1 would still be the 'factory' team and all that goes with it.

Since then though things have moved on and after another slow start to the year, BMW's patience with Williams seems to be evaporating, whilst the thought of a gleaming BMW F1 team based around the infrastructure of Sauber has gathered sufficient pace for Mario Theissen to propose to the BMW board that they buy all or some of Sauber. Despite denials on both side that anything is other than harmonious, it has allegedly concerned SFW sufficently to out some feelers out for an alternative supply, with Cosworth and - wait for it - Honda as leading contenders.

The scenario for example.
BMW buys into Sauber, but maintains it's deal with Williams, but, knowing that your old toys are inevitably always cast aside for the new ones, SFW may figure that it's better to get out of the deal rather than face a 'dripping tap' of BMW increasing their commitment to Sauber, relegating Williams to a bit part.

Button, watching from the sidelines can see that Williams are having another slow start to the season and will probably face a reduced 'commitment' from BMW in the short/medium term. Despite the recent debacle, he knows that Honda are commited to BAR (having bought into the team) and will continue to supply 'works' engines and funding.

BAR Honda will want to keep Button and knowing that the performance clause is going against them, decide to cut a favourable deal for engine supply to Williams, in return for tearing up the contract with Button. Possibly with Ant D moving to Williams as part of the deal.

So for 2006 we have.

Williams Honda - Webber and Davidson
Sauber BMW - Heidfeld and A N other - JV/Massa or another BMW contracted driver.
BAR Honda - as per 2005.

It could happen.

[mabs_nsx]

Originally Posted by Super Tourer

So for 2006 we have.

Williams Honda - Webber and Davidson
Sauber BMW - Heidfeld and A N other - JV/Massa or another BMW contracted driver.
BAR Honda - as per 2005.

It could happen.

I like the sound of that.

But It would be even better if it was:
Williams Honda - M.Webber and J.Villeneuve
Sauber BMW - N.Heidfeld & A.Davidson
BAR Honda - J.Button & T.Sato

[Valve Bounce]

Here we go into the mathematical perms and coms. First of all, I understand BMW - Sauber is a done deal, and all we are waiting for is the announcement. BMW will, more than likely have their own works team, in which case Frank will get a customer engine only. How much other technical support they will get in relation to the engine is anybody's guess, but I would guess that if any goodies become available to up engine HP, the Works BMW team will get it first, and maybe it will trickle over to Frank's tanks some time later.

Meanwhile, there is also the possibility that BAR will no longer be BAR next year but will becone Team Honda. Knowing that the Works Honda car will be faster than Frank's tanks, the Bunsen might decide to stay put, or look for a better ride elsewhere. It is highly unlikely, from a historical viewpoint that Ferrari, Renault, McLaren, Frank and Toyota will all have the same drivers next year - I have a better chance of winning Oz Lotto than that happening. Maybe SchM will decide its time, who knows, and set the chain reaction going madly.

Of course, we all hope that if the Bunsen departs for greener pastures on the other side of the fence, the Ant will jump into his seat, go faster and kick the Bunsen's arse. What else can we hope for?

Then, of course, Super Tourer hopes that Frank's tanks will get a Honda (customer of course) engine and the Ant will get a drive there. My guess is that even if BMW continues to supply engines to Frank for his tanks, Nick will go over to the Works BMW team. There is a good chance that the Ant might get a drive somwhere as BAR have already signed Wheldon up as the replacement test driver when the Ant shifts up a cog either at Williams or at Team Honda.

We can guess madly from this day forth, and have a great time guessing. Blessed are they who run around in circles for they shall become big wheels.

[Dixie Flatline]

Hmm. I've seen it reported in Motorsport News here in Australia that Mercedes-Benz is also talking to Sauber concerning the supply of engines.

The consensus is that BMW has the leg up on its competitors concerning the supply of engines to Sauber, but that does not necessarily mean that BMW will take a stake in Sauber just yet.

I'm not entirely sure what how it could be argued that Honda doesn't want to lose Button to start supplying engines to Williams, nor the reverse - why Williams would want to obtain engines from Honda when it could possibly get engines from Cosworth that, by all accounts, seem to be quite well developed for the new engine rules coming into effect from next year.

[Super Tourer]

I was merely speculating that the set of circumstances could work out in that way in theory.

Naturally Cosworth are in the running to supply any teams, but the only issue is that they wouldn't be able to subsidise the deal in the same way a manufacturer could.

The root of my speculation is that despite the fact that JB would be (likely) technically free to move to Williams, it might not be the very attractive prospect it was a year ago and such a clear cut decision.

[Adam43]

A small point that is a little off topic: I think the Honda might be as far developed as the Cosworth. The Honda has already been on track IIRC.

[Super Tourer]

Indeed it has AD gave it a run out at Mugello with a V8 in the back of a last years chasis but with 2005 spec aero. It set a time 3 secs faster than a current Minardi Cosworth V10 (according to Autosport).

[Peter Mallett]

So only about a second off the current pace then?

[Glen]

Originally Posted by mabs_nsx

I like the sound of that.

But It would be even better if it was:
Williams Honda - M.Webber and J.Villeneuve
Sauber BMW - N.Heidfeld & A.Davidson
BAR Honda - J.Button & T.Sato

Where does Massa go then?

[Don K]

Originally Posted by Valve Bounce

It is highly unlikely, from a historical viewpoint that Ferrari, Renault, McLaren, Frank and Toyota will all have the same drivers next year - I have a better chance of winning Oz Lotto than that happening

I think that is incorrect.

Remember that F1 has less than 60 years of history.
So from a historical viewpoint, it would be hard to prove that that chance is less than 1%.
And I suppose the chance of winning Oz Lotto should be a lot smaller than that.

[f1_carzy]

Massa might be off to Ferrari, as he is one among the four on Schumi's list(but I doubt that, just a thought)

[Mark Edwards]

Another option is that Sir Frank is quite happy enough with Webber and Heidfeld that he'll have no intention of employing JB next year, leaving him no option but to beg BAR for his job back!!!

[Kicking-back]

Originally Posted by Mark Edwards

Another option is that Sir Frank is quite happy enough with Webber and Heidfeld that he'll have no intention of employing JB next year, leaving him no option but to beg BAR for his job back!!!

Frank is contractually obliged to employ him.

[Glen]

He'd be daft not to as well, if you ask me.

[BootsOntheSide]

If Mark and Nick both do well, it's quite possible that one of the three Williams guys would be loaned to Sauber if they have BMW engines, ro that Nick wouold be offered to BAR as part of the Button deal. This is all a long way off, but I bet Jenson's already looking to the future.

[Tiptop]

I think it's looking increasingly likely that Nick heidfeld will stay at Williams with Mark Webber being farmed off to another team. IMHO I think Heidfeld is doing a fantastic job at Williams and deserves to stay at a top team while Mark Webber is contracted out to sauber or a smaller team until he is ready to be in a top team.
Button will come back to Williams and then maybe we will see some race wins ?

[maximus]

Williams like Webber so I doubt hes gonna get kicked out soon, but its early days yet!

[dcp2685]

Regardless of what Nick does this year, I believe this is a one shot deal in a "Top" team. If BMW buy into Sauber there is no doubt in my mind he'll end up there. Given that...

BAR: Taku & Anthony Davidson
Williams: Mark and Jenson
Sauber: Nick and JV/Massa/possibly Pizzonia/DC?

That would be my best guess at the moment.

[Kirk]

Why not take it a step further and put Massa in the Ferrari with RB going to BAR and/or MS retiring.

[the_royksopp]

ro that Nick wouold be offered to BAR as part of the Button deal. This is all a long way off, but I bet Jenson's already looking to the future.

Thats a no-go if you ask me. BAR will have to keep Taku, because he kinda comes with Honda, and they should keep him too, he's doing a pretty good job. And they'll have to give the Ant a race seat next year, otherwise he'll be off to some other team - possibly Sauber. If Anthony doesnt get a drive with BAR next year, i'll betcha he won't be staying in Brackley, if there's seats available in Hinwill.

[Valve Bounce]

Originally Posted by Kirk

Why not take it a step further and put Massa in the Ferrari with RB going to BAR and/or MS retiring.

You want to see a Ferrari being used as a dodgem car?

[Dixie Flatline]

Originally Posted by Kicking-back

Frank is contractually obliged to employ him.

How so? I wasn't aware that Sir Frank had signed a contract obliging him to engage Button for 2006 and beyond. Not challenging this, just wanting a refresh of my memory.

As far as my memory goes, Webber is on a 2 year contract with Williams, and Heidfeld is on a 1 year contract. As far as I recall, historically, Williams is not in the business of breaking driver contracts, so if Williams has signed a "pre-contract" with Button for 2006 (for want of a better term), then it seems the easier option for Williams would be to let Heidfeld go, and partner Webber up with Button. Otherwise, Williams would have to pay out Webber's contract, unless they can convince (a) him to go to another team, and (b) that other team to take him for a season. But that would mean Williams is paying the wages for three drivers - something Williams wouldn't like, I would have thought.

[Dixie Flatline]

Having said all that, there is an interesting piece of speculation on PlanetF1.com's website concerning this merry-go-round.

http://www.planetf1.com/news/story_19511.shtml

[Raglanparade]

Ive got my Money on a straight swap.

Jenson to Williams

Webber to BAR

Williams getting Honda supplied engines

Ant to Williams

JV to continue to partner Massa at Sauber BMW

Schumi to Retire

Kimi to Ferrari

Heidfeld to McLaren Mercedes

Alex Wurz and Doorbos to Midland

and Will Power in a Minardi

[thejester]

Originally Posted by Tiptop

I think it's looking increasingly likely that Nick heidfeld will stay at Williams with Mark Webber being farmed off to another team. IMHO I think Heidfeld is doing a fantastic job at Williams and deserves to stay at a top team while Mark Webber is contracted out to sauber or a smaller team until he is ready to be in a top team.
Button will come back to Williams and then maybe we will see some race wins ?

Nick will have to decimate Mark over the rest of this year for him to stay on at Webber's cost IMO, even if, as you say Nick deserves to stay at a top team. I think they will take Button if they can, and will keep their faith in Mark. Mark has to work a bit harder to repay that trust, but the season is long, he has the ability, and that's a whole 'nother thread anyway...