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Old 11 Feb 2020, 13:08 (Ref:3956936)   #151
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Originally Posted by Tel 911S View Post
The EV figures are just basic maths .
Total generation capacity of the UK as a whole is just over 50GWh , with a constant base load of about 30GWh . https://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
shows ongoing load , [ about 40GWh at the moment ].
Total registered vehicles in UK , [ cars & small vans ], is about 32,000,000 .
Averaging that lot out over low rate home chargers & commercial charge units , allowing for grid loss & AC to DC charge rate loss would total up to something like well over 200GWh load if they all plugged in at once .
It's true that current generation capability does not meet the requirements for a large increase in EV use.
However, it must also be considered that - why would electricity generators produce more if the demand is not there?
A snapshot of the last 7 day demand for the UK shows a peak of just over 43GWh, and a low of 20.5GWh. There is no appetite for an increase in generation, so it is not done.

It is also a dangerous model to assume that all cars would charge at the same time, and all draw the maximum current available.
If every ICE car in theUK was to attempt to fill up at the same time, there is not the infrastructure to cope with this.
Electric Vehicle charging is not an 'all at once' situation. There would be a spread of vehicles charging, vehicles charged and vehicles in use - just as there is with ICE vehicles at present.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 14:17 (Ref:3956944)   #152
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The national grid produced a paper on this. Using basic maths, but underpinned by detailed knowledge of the grid.
There is a fun podcast on this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b092rbc0
The electric car bit is in the middle.
I think you'll like it as it does the whole stats thing.

The national grid paper is here:
https://www.nationalgrid.com/group/c...ams-future-evs

Undoubtedly there are challenges, but the general feel, I get, is that none are insurmountable and the discussion is being driven by extremes.

On the rail what are the percentages of. 7% of rail out of goods from that port? Goods overall in the UK? I have no feel for this at all. It strikes me that Rail is very good in specific cases based on the goods and the locations, but not as flexible.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 14:20 (Ref:3956945)   #153
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
It's true that current generation capability does not meet the requirements for a large increase in EV use.
However, it must also be considered that - why would electricity generators produce more if the demand is not there?
A snapshot of the last 7 day demand for the UK shows a peak of just over 43GWh, and a low of 20.5GWh. There is no appetite for an increase in generation, so it is not done.

It is also a dangerous model to assume that all cars would charge at the same time, and all draw the maximum current available.
If every ICE car in the UK was to attempt to fill up at the same time, there is not the infrastructure to cope with this.
Electric Vehicle charging is not an 'all at once' situation. There would be a spread of vehicles charging, vehicles charged and vehicles in use - just as there is with ICE vehicles at present.
There will be a spike at the "end of the day" for the largest numbers of commuters and I'm they have that data already with the general light and power needs changes already in place. What that number would look like with the addition of new load for car charging is up for debate and likely modification based on charging style and voltage needs. I would guess it isn't an unsubstantial amount of draw but would be somewhat simultaneous, people are going to plug their cars in when they get home and are near them most likely. That said, as you mentioned earlier, engineers will solve those problems as they arise. If there's no need for that load now, no changes would be made. More importantly though is CAN those changes be made. I'm guessing there is more than a little extra built in to the systems but how much extra is safety needs and how much can be exploited with infrastructure changes. From what I've gathered most of the US infrastructure needs a massive overhaul to greatly increase the loads and in some cases new power stations needed for some of the estimates of load needed. Now it does appear more than a few energy companies are trying to get ahead of this and want to expand before demand grows, and yes lobby for better rules/discounts for electric cars. I do not think that is an insurmountable challenge at all and the battery life/construction/disposal is the far greater risk for failure in the system than can we generate the power needed.

With my commute currently, 5 miles or so each way, I would love to be in the buying cycle to swap my truck for the Rivian electric truck. A few things stop that from consideration at all. First, to replace my truck is about 80k in terms of equipment and vehicle. Second, the market is limited for me personally, want a truck and frankly for my size a truck is needed, 6'7 (2m) and 325 lb (23 st, 148kg) does not fit in a car. I've tried and it was painful all day in my old CMaxx for work. Finally, honestly other than the Rivian the other proposed options for electric trucks are garbage. The Tesla truck is utter garbage and from some industry discussions I've heard cannot be built in the style shown. The Ford product sounds like they don't want to be realistic and want swing their lower appendages around with made-up towing numbers, last I heard was targeting 15k trailers for a light duty truck. That's garbage and unsafe. Plus it was estimated to weigh almost 10k on its own.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 15:05 (Ref:3956968)   #154
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Originally Posted by Adam43 View Post
The national grid produced a paper on this. Using basic maths, but underpinned by detailed knowledge of the grid.
There is a fun podcast on this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b092rbc0
The electric car bit is in the middle.
I think you'll like it as it does the whole stats thing.

The national grid paper is here:
https://www.nationalgrid.com/group/c...ams-future-evs

Undoubtedly there are challenges, but the general feel, I get, is that none are insurmountable and the discussion is being driven by extremes.

On the rail what are the percentages of. 7% of rail out of goods from that port? Goods overall in the UK? I have no feel for this at all. It strikes me that Rail is very good in specific cases based on the goods and the locations, but not as flexible.
The port rail thing is local to me & was in the news about more goods going by rail , so I read up on figures .The 7% by rail is total goods movements over the country as a whole , & road transport still does nearly 90% of it all .

With the EV charging , I have read up several of the FES being issued , & the most noticeable thing is they avoid the real issues .They will say things like the total yearly generation capacity is nearly enough for the average mileage done by some percentage of the motoring public .And if everybody has their smart meters to just charge when there is spare grid capacity , then it will not need a huge increase in generating capacity .

But the actual fact is , without a large increase in generation , if just 5% of the motoring public plug in at the same time in the Winter months , then the grid goes down , & will not restart without the load being removed .
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 15:58 (Ref:3956984)   #155
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Originally Posted by Tel 911S View Post
But the actual fact is , without a large increase in generation , if just 5% of the motoring public plug in at the same time in the Winter months , then the grid goes down , & will not restart without the load being removed .
Somehow I do not think that this is accurate.
There are a number of factors that are not being considered, when you make this claim.

Worst case scenario, based on 5% of the motoring public:
Assumptions:
All cars are capable of using a CHAdeMO connection 50kW.
All cars are driven to a CHAdeMO charging point (dedicated DC charging station in a commercial setting).

32,000,000/20 = 1,600,000 cars
1,600,000 * 50kW = 80GW of current draw

However:
Not all cars are capable of using CHAdeMO stations
CHAdeMO stations have onboard systems that control the current draw from the network
The availability of CHAdeMO stations in the workplace is currently minimal

So what about the other end of the scale - everyone with an electric vehicle charges at home simultaneously?
Assumptions:
All owners have a higher-spec 'fast charger' in their domestic setting (7kW).
All vehicles are capable of charging at 7kW (they're not).

1,600,000 cars * 7kW = 11.2 GW of current draw.

11.2 GW is not going to disable the grid.


(NB: - I followed your error of GWh previously, whereas instantaneous current does not have a time factor)
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 16:16 (Ref:3956993)   #156
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
Somehow I do not think that this is accurate.
There are a number of factors that are not being considered, when you make this claim.

Worst case scenario, based on 5% of the motoring public:
Assumptions:
All cars are capable of using a CHAdeMO connection 50kW.
All cars are driven to a CHAdeMO charging point (dedicated DC charging station in a commercial setting).

32,000,000/20 = 1,600,000 cars
1,600,000 * 50kW = 80GW of current draw

However:
Not all cars are capable of using CHAdeMO stations
CHAdeMO stations have onboard systems that control the current draw from the network
The availability of CHAdeMO stations in the workplace is currently minimal

So what about the other end of the scale - everyone with an electric vehicle charges at home simultaneously?
Assumptions:
All owners have a higher-spec 'fast charger' in their domestic setting (7kW).
All vehicles are capable of charging at 7kW (they're not).

1,600,000 cars * 7kW = 11.2 GW of current draw.

11.2 GW is not going to disable the grid.


(NB: - I followed your error of GWh previously, whereas instantaneous current does not have a time factor)
National grid figures are 6% loss , an AC to DC charger is probably about 10%
loss [ unless you have one which never produces any heat etc ] , so real figure of about 14 GWh [ note , measurement of energy , not instantaneous current ].
But that would be on load for 5 to 10 hours , so very high risk of the grid going down
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 16:42 (Ref:3957004)   #157
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Originally Posted by Tel 911S View Post
National grid figures are 6% loss , an AC to DC charger is probably about 10%
loss [ unless you have one which never produces any heat etc ] , so real figure of about 14 GWh [ note , measurement of energy , not instantaneous current ].
But that would be on load for 5 to 10 hours , so very high risk of the grid going down
14GW or 14GWh?

The current draw will not be at full load for the duration of charging, and you are not taking into consideration the frequency shifts that can be / are carried out to influence the draw.

If all of the vehicles were charged at the full 7kW, and every vehicle was almost depleted of energy prior to charge cycle, you would only see that load on the grid for 3hrs at most.

Working on the 5 to 10 hours on load, you would fully charge a typical EV with a current draw of less than 3kW.
Another factor to consider is that, as more EVs appear, you are likely to see shared dual, or even triple, charging points in households. These will have an individual capacity of 30A per car, but will not produce a combined draw in excess of 32A (due to domestic power regulations). Therefore, you will increasingly see the maximum domestic draw of 7kW shared across 2-3 vehicles at a time.

In my work environment, I have sight of equipment that sees instantaneous current swings between 0-8MW. The systems controlling the power delivery are able to cope with these because they have been engineered as such. We won't see such extreme swings in the national grid appear overnight. If they were to appear at all, then we would see a build up towards that point and systems modified to cope as required.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 17:07 (Ref:3957009)   #158
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
14GW or 14GWh?

The current draw will not be at full load for the duration of charging, and you are not taking into consideration the frequency shifts that can be / are carried out to influence the draw.

If all of the vehicles were charged at the full 7kW, and every vehicle was almost depleted of energy prior to charge cycle, you would only see that load on the grid for 3hrs at most.

Working on the 5 to 10 hours on load, you would fully charge a typical EV with a current draw of less than 3kW.
Another factor to consider is that, as more EVs appear, you are likely to see shared dual, or even triple, charging points in households. These will have an individual capacity of 30A per car, but will not produce a combined draw in excess of 32A (due to domestic power regulations). Therefore, you will increasingly see the maximum domestic draw of 7kW shared across 2-3 vehicles at a time.

In my work environment, I have sight of equipment that sees instantaneous current swings between 0-8MW. The systems controlling the power delivery are able to cope with these because they have been engineered as such. We won't see such extreme swings in the national grid appear overnight. If they were to appear at all, then we would see a build up towards that point and systems modified to cope as required.
GWh , the normal measurement of ENERGY at any one time ,as used by grids / power stations ) etc .
And charging at 7KW will need about 5 hours for 100 miles range .
Max loading on the UK gird at any one time was [ I believe ],66 GWh, which required all of the interconnectors & the emergency storage ,[ Dinowig etc , which then takes several days to to recharge ], so that it didn,t drop out .

So if an addition loading of 14GWh is put on the grid , in the Winter , for several hours , then there is a high probably of blackout .
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 18:32 (Ref:3957031)   #159
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Originally Posted by Tel 911S View Post
GWh , the normal measurement of ENERGY at any one time ,as used by grids / power stations ) etc .
GWh is a prduct of power over time. power stations / grids etc will measure power at any one time. It is impossible to measure GWh at any one moment in time.
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And charging at 7KW will need about 5 hours for 100 miles range .
I think your calculations are a bit off here. 7KW over 5 hours gives a total of 35KWh of energy.
In a standard Nissan Leaf, the 40KWh battery gives up to 168 miles.
168 *35/40 = 148 miles - or about a factor of 1.5 the figure you quote.

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Originally Posted by Tel 911S View Post
Max loading on the UK gird at any one time was [ I believe ],66 GWh, which required all of the interconnectors & the emergency storage ,[ Dinowig etc , which then takes several days to to recharge ], so that it didn,t drop out .
Again, GWh or GW? Load is an instant calculation of power, not energy.

It is your confusion between energy and power that seem to be skewing the argument. If the combined load of all EVs in the UK charging was 14GW, and they all charged for a period of 5hrs, then the total energy demand would be 70GWh.
The link you provided previously shows the peak capacity of the grid as being circa 55GW - this equates to a capacity 1,320GWh per day.
Over the past week, the average demand was 835GWh per day.
Adding 70GWh per day to this takes the overall demand to 905GWh, leaving 415GWh of spare capacity.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 19:06 (Ref:3957033)   #160
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We went over this earlier in the thread.

1 - It takes more electricity to refine petrol than it does to power the car. The car will go further on that electricity as energy is lost (heat etc) during the conversion. When adding electric cars to the mix you have to remove the refining petroleum cost from it. Otherwise your numbers assume we'll all own both electric and petrol cars, and drive them both to the same amount we currently drive our petrol cars.

2 - Cars connected to the grid act as VTG storage systems. Connecting a car to a grid doesn't mean it now takes the maximum possible power from the grid at all times. It can even give back to the grid.

3 - Capacity is an issue if we all move to electric cars over 24 hours. In reality it's decades of movement. If you told 1970s us how much power we'd be using in 2020 then we'd also point out the grid wouldn't cope. But we didn't get there instantly.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 19:14 (Ref:3957034)   #161
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3 - Capacity is an issue if we all move to electric cars over 24 hours. In reality it's decades of movement. If you told 1970s us how much power we'd be using in 2020 then we'd also point out the grid wouldn't cope. But we didn't get there instantly.
Agreed - these changes don't happen overnight and systems adapt to cope.

If every car driver in the UK went to the forecourt to fill up at 5pm, the system would not cope with the demand and we would see a combination of road blocks and fuel shortage. The system has developed to meet the scale of demand placed upon it, and people also adjust to the system to meet their needs - such as timing their fuelling trip for quiet periods.

The 2020 grid is not able to cope with the 2035 demand, but it will adapt if/when required.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 19:23 (Ref:3957038)   #162
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Agreed - these changes don't happen overnight and systems adapt to cope.

If every car driver in the UK went to the forecourt to fill up at 5pm, the system would not cope with the demand and we would see a combination of road blocks and fuel shortage. The system has developed to meet the scale of demand placed upon it, and people also adjust to the system to meet their needs - such as timing their fuelling trip for quiet periods.

The 2020 grid is not able to cope with the 2035 demand, but it will adapt if/when required.
Completely agree. Also, we actually see the system working on a daily basis. There are huge energy spikes around 5-6pm, and believe it or not, when certain TV shows end when kettles are turned on. Cities stagger the turning on of street lights so they don't all connect to the grid at the same moment.

We had problems. We adapted to it. Now it seems people think we can't adapt.

It's similar to people saying "Imagine the amount of metal in wind turbines! How do we get all that? How do we recycle it? What about maintenance? You'd need teams of people to do it!"

Yeah. Ever seen oil rigs, mate? They aren't made of marshmallows and maintained by faries. The amount of people involved in keeping those running is far in excess of any amount of wind farm.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 19:31 (Ref:3957044)   #163
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GWh is a prduct of power over time. power stations / grids etc will measure power at any one time. It is impossible to measure GWh at any one moment in time.

I think your calculations are a bit off here. 7KW over 5 hours gives a total of 35KWh of energy.
In a standard Nissan Leaf, the 40KWh battery gives up to 168 miles.
168 *35/40 = 148 miles - or about a factor of 1.5 the figure you quote.



Again, GWh or GW? Load is an instant calculation of power, not energy.

It is your confusion between energy and power that seem to be skewing the argument. If the combined load of all EVs in the UK charging was 14GW, and they all charged for a period of 5hrs, then the total energy demand would be 70GWh.
The link you provided previously shows the peak capacity of the grid as being circa 55GW - this equates to a capacity 1,320GWh per day.
Over the past week, the average demand was 835GWh per day.
Adding 70GWh per day to this takes the overall demand to 905GWh, leaving 415GWh of spare capacity.

http://www.businessdictionary.com/de...-Hour-GWh.html
A GWh is a unit of ENERGY not power .
Power is what comes when energy is used .
On a much smaller scale , 1 Gallon [ UK ] of petrol contains about 40KWh of energy , when it is just standing there .
The same as when GWh is used as the energy output from a power station , or the load on the grid at any one time .

I know it is a long time since I qualified to be an AMIMechE , & I have forgotten more than I can remember , but I still do know the difference between power & energy . But usually work in KWh s because it is easier than Joules.
Max output from UK generators is 50 odd GW at any one time . On winter days the spare capacity varies from nothing up to , [ and over ] , 15GW.
But who knows when . So if there is not enough spare when [ just for you ]
2 million EVs are plugged in , then blackout .
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 19:40 (Ref:3957049)   #164
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We went over this earlier in the thread.

1 - It takes more electricity to refine petrol than it does to power the car. The car will go further on that electricity as energy is lost (heat etc) during the conversion. When adding electric cars to the mix you have to remove the refining petroleum cost from it. Otherwise your numbers assume we'll all own both electric and petrol cars, and drive them both to the same amount we currently drive our petrol cars.

2 - Cars connected to the grid act as VTG storage systems. Connecting a car to a grid doesn't mean it now takes the maximum possible power from the grid at all times. It can even give back to the grid.

3 - Capacity is an issue if we all move to electric cars over 24 hours. In reality it's decades of movement. If you told 1970s us how much power we'd be using in 2020 then we'd also point out the grid wouldn't cope. But we didn't get there instantly.
The energy used for refining petrol , [ measured in KWh ] , comes from burning oil , [ or gas ] , and refineries use their CHPs for electric power for their pumps & lighting . They then feed the excess into the grid . Overall the 6 major refineries in the UK are net contributers to the grid .

The idea that refining uses a lot of electricity is just total rubbish.
If the refineries shut down there would be less generation capacity on the grid .
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 19:49 (Ref:3957055)   #165
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Originally Posted by Tel 911S View Post
http://www.businessdictionary.com/de...-Hour-GWh.html
A GWh is a unit of ENERGY not power .
Power is what comes when energy is used .
On a much smaller scale , 1 Gallon [ UK ] of petrol contains about 40KWh of energy , when it is just standing there .
The same as when GWh is used as the energy output from a power station , or the load on the grid at any one time .

Max output from UK generators is 50 odd GW at any one time . On winter days the spare capacity varies from nothing up to , [ and over ] , 15GW.
But who knows when . So if there is not enough spare when [ just for you ]
2 million EVs are plugged in , then blackout .
Yes - and if you burned the petrol at a constant rate of 40KWh, then it would last for one hour. The power at any one time would be 40KW - not 40KWh.
The same 40KWh would last for two hours, if burnt at a constant rate of 20KW. Four hours if burnt at 10KW etc.. The energy demand on the source would be the same, but the power demand would be different.

The grid is already prepared for surge events (or pick ups). They forecast that they can cope with approximately 1.2 milllion kettles being turned on (typically 3KW each). The move towards EV charging pick ups would happen gradually, and measures would be in place.

It is interesting you use petrol in your analogy too. The Nissan Versa Note is quoted as delivering approximately 40mpg. The Nissan Leaf Acenta has a range of 168 miles on a 40KWh battery.

So the Versa gives a range of 40 miles from 40KWh of energy. The LEAF gives a range of 168 miles from the same amount of energy.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 19:53 (Ref:3957056)   #166
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The energy used for refining petrol , [ measured in KWh ] , comes from burning oil , [ or gas ] , and refineries use their CHPs for electric power for their pumps & lighting . They then feed the excess into the grid . Overall the 6 major refineries in the UK are net contributers to the grid .

The idea that refining uses a lot of electricity is just total rubbish.
If the refineries shut down there would be less generation capacity on the grid .
They don't tend to burn oil for creating power. It's pretty bad at that as it tends to burn rather than explode, which is what is good for creating power. (Which is why car engines compress it, to make a bang). It's gas, or renewable. There are refineries running off of solar.

That, however, is besides the point as nobody said they were not contributing the grid. That doesn't change what I said - you cannot do a 100% efficient energy conversion. Energy is lost out of the system during the conversion from electricity to petrol. It takes 6kwh of electricity to refine 1 gallon of petrol. If you stop refining petrol, you gain back 6kwh of energy for every gallon you do not refine. Not that due to the fuel type (liquid), you then need to refine diesel to power the lorries which transport the petrol. Petrol is in a unique position that it requires a similarly powered vehicle to transport the fuel. Whilst gas an electricity have grids, which means they don't need to double dip on the energy spent to distribute the energy.

Whether the refineries add to the grid or not doesn't matter. If the refineries weren't there then instead of 75% of the power they consume being used to produce products, 100% of it would go to power production.

Note that the 75/25 split is a randomly chosen number. It doesn't matter what the number is, because even if only 1% of it is spent and 99% is put back into the system, it is still a net loss.

Your post only works on the basis that the hydrocarbons being used by the refinery would cease to exist when looking at it from my point of view. But they would not.

Or let's put it another way. If you have a battery charger and you plug it into the wall and it charges the batteries. Unplugging it from the wall does not suddenly lose the energy which it would have taken. It still exists in the system. It's just going somewhere else now.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 20:26 (Ref:3957066)   #167
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
Yes - and if you burned the petrol at a constant rate of 40KWh, then it would last for one hour. The power at any one time would be 40KW - not 40KWh.
The same 40KWh would last for two hours, if burnt at a constant rate of 20KW. Four hours if burnt at 10KW etc.. The energy demand on the source would be the same, but the power demand would be different.

The grid is already prepared for surge events (or pick ups). They forecast that they can cope with approximately 1.2 milllion kettles being turned on (typically 3KW each). The move towards EV charging pick ups would happen gradually, and measures would be in place.

It is interesting you use petrol in your analogy too. The Nissan Versa Note is quoted as delivering approximately 40mpg. The Nissan Leaf Acenta has a range of 168 miles on a 40KWh battery.



So the Versa gives a range of 40 miles from 40KWh of energy. The LEAF gives a range of 168 miles from the same amount of energy.
Very few EVs can do over 3 miles per KWh except in very favourable conditions .https://whatcar.com/news/what-car-re...l-world/n18161
This test shows the real mileage of the Leaf as 128 miles.

Yes , the grid is prepared for surge events .
The Dinowig generator is there to cope with a several GW surge for a couple of hours , or to balance the frequency restart in case of blackout , but once used , then needs days of taking power back from the grid to refill the reservoir.
But there is still not enough generation capacity in the UK to charge more than a small percent of total road vehicles if they went EV.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 20:37 (Ref:3957068)   #168
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Very few EVs can do over 3 miles per KWh except in very favourable conditions .https://whatcar.com/news/what-car-re...l-world/n18161
This test shows the real mileage of the Leaf as 128 miles.

Yes , the grid is prepared for surge events .
The Dinowig generator is there to cope with a several GW surge for a couple of hours , or to balance the frequency restart in case of blackout , but once used , then needs days of taking power back from the grid to refill the reservoir.
But there is still not enough generation capacity in the UK to charge more than a small percent of total road vehicles if they went EV.
Again, I never claimed that an EV can do that? I believe you are building strawmen, because you seem to be making arguments for me.

We continue to talk about grid capacity, ignoring the saving made from petrol refining. In your example, we all move to electric cars, but continue to refine all the petrol at the same rate. What are we refining petrol for now? Fun? This isn't a realistic scenario.

Or, if you want another analogy - Sophie and Jamie have 10 cookies each (cookies are hydrocarbons here). If Sophie eats 6 cookies, she has 4 remaining. Jamie however has decided she doesn't want to waste her cookies eating them now, she's going to save them for later. So she still has 10 cookies. She does not bin 6 of them so she will only have 4 for later.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 20:42 (Ref:3957071)   #169
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But there is still not enough generation capacity in the UK to charge more than a small percent of total road vehicles if they went EV overnight.
FTFY
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 21:10 (Ref:3957075)   #170
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3 - Capacity is an issue if we all move to electric cars over 24 hours. In reality it's decades of movement. If you told 1970s us how much power we'd be using in 2020 then we'd also point out the grid wouldn't cope. But we didn't get there instantly.
but how do we get to that future?

in the past there was still the opportunity to expand the power grid using non nonrenewables and while there are more renewable options today not every place/region has access to build hydro, wind, or solar or at least on the scale that say a city of 10 million may need.

if the only way for them to adapt to future energy needs over time was nuclear how many nuclear power plants would it take to unbalance the global benefits of an all EV future? could the radioactive waste produced present a bigger problem then the one EVs set out to solve? what would be the cost to the taxpayer to transport and store said waste indefinitely be?
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 21:19 (Ref:3957077)   #171
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i should add that i believe that climate change is going to push people closer together and over the next 50 years cities are going to grow at a much faster rate then at any time in the past. population density is going to skyrocket.

if we are talking about the future, then im not sure there are any models which suggests renewables will be able to deal with the power the mega cities of the future will demand.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 21:22 (Ref:3957078)   #172
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We can’t do any of that yet. We get there with slow incremental steps.

10 years ago renewables weren’t big. Today, Scotland has had several days where we ran off of purely renewable power and that’s without any battery storage systems. We’ve gone from running off of coal to that within peoples life times.

It can be done slowly over decades. We’re talking massive time scales, not one project over 5 years.

I’m not saying nuclear isn’t the answer. My argument has always been that you have to have renewable energy because if you don’t, then by definition you have non-renewable energy, which is unsustainable. Using the theory of the future mega-cities, current hydrocarbon based energy solutions run into problems sooner than renewables do as we just lose the resources at a faster rate.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 21:24 (Ref:3957079)   #173
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The idea of putting goods on the railways often comes up until you work out the logistics .
They spent £ Billions upgrading the rail line into Felixstowe dock , [ the biggest container port in the country ] , & can now carry thousands more containers every week .
But the end result is that about 7% of total goods movements are now by rail , up from about 4% . And there is no way that the figures can go much higher over the country as a whole .
Small point - dualling the important bit on the Felixstowe branch line around the Trimley area (which I can see from my bedroom window) was only around £60 million, with a similar amount being spent on the "bacon curve" at Ipswich.
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Old 11 Feb 2020, 21:54 (Ref:3957087)   #174
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Using the theory of the future mega-cities, current hydrocarbon based energy solutions run into problems sooner than renewables do as we just lose the resources at a faster rate.
thats a fair point all be it not one that inspires in me confidence about the future!
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Old 12 Feb 2020, 08:50 (Ref:3957137)   #175
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There seem to be an awful lot of conflicting predictions / stats out there, depending on what the individual or organisation is trying to prove!

What is obvious (to me) is that we’re not going to get to a certain date when all ICE vehicles are suddenly replaced by BEVs. Even when new versions of the former are not able to be sold, it will take many years of transition.....
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