Crunch Time

Kirk · 17 Sep 2007, 12:23 (Ref:2015596)

OK, the European swing ends and it is crunch time.
Ferrari did not seem at all surprised that they outpaced McLaren rather significantly at Spa. A stark contrast to the previous week and as a result Kimi is still alive for the WDC. With 3 races to go, will this trend continue depending on the track they are at or will we see one team dominate the pace from here on in?

Knowlesy · 17 Sep 2007, 13:00 (Ref:2015644)

The way I see it (and I think I posted this elsewhere) is that the Asian tracks could go either way and Brazil will be a McLaren benefit.

Dutton · 17 Sep 2007, 20:19 (Ref:2016139)

Kimi still alive? Perhaps, but it is pretty desperate stuff...

I can see China going Ferrari's way. Fuji...I have no idea (what are the dominant characteristics at it nowadays?). Brazil...I think it could be close, actually.

Overall, well, you'd have to think Kimi/Massa don't have a realistic hope (barring double-DNF scenarios for Mclaren combined with Ferrari 1-2s).

Knowlesy · 17 Sep 2007, 20:23 (Ref:2016142)

Ferrari 1-2's will give Kimi a serious shot actually. All it would require is one bad race for Lewis. And he'd be ahead of Alonso whatever he did.

So it's not all over, the problem is Ferrari's insane reliability compared to McLaren's opposingly insane reliability.

pottiella · 17 Sep 2007, 20:24 (Ref:2016144)

one word Dutton - Monza 2006...Schumi vs Alonso...3 races to go...

wait...that's more than one word...but you get the jist!

Dutton · 17 Sep 2007, 20:38 (Ref:2016167)

Ferrari 1-2s with Mclaren finishing 3-4 would not really be enough, though, would it? Mclaren mess-ups are necessary. On top of that, Ferrari 1-2s in all the remaining races does not seem that likely.

Also, can anyone seriously see Ferrari getting to the end of the season without at least one mechanical failure? Mclaren, on the other hand, are looking like they may achieve a 100% finishing record (which would just be absolutely mind-boggling).

I still hold out hope of some form (it is still mathematically possible), but, in terms of probabilities, it is not exactly likely that anything other than a Mclaren driver will get it.

Knowlesy · 17 Sep 2007, 20:40 (Ref:2016168)

I'd like to say that, pre-season, I predicted McLaren would have such incredible reliability and that Ferrari would make their cars out of Airfix kits.

But I didn't.

Mr V · 17 Sep 2007, 20:42 (Ref:2016170)

Quote:

Originally Posted by pottiella

one word Dutton - Monza 2006...Schumi vs Alonso...3 races to go...

wait...that's more than one word...but you get the jist!

2 words actually.........

Unfair penalty

JeremySmith · 17 Sep 2007, 20:45 (Ref:2016175)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knowlesy

I'd like to say that, pre-season, I predicted McLaren would have such incredible reliability and that Ferrari would make their cars out of Airfix kits.

But I didn't.

With a floor that goes, never mind better not go there!

Mr V · 17 Sep 2007, 20:46 (Ref:2016178)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dutton

Ferrari 1-2s with Mclaren finishing 3-4 would not really be enough, though, would it?

I thought that until i just did the maths.

I was thinking that a Kimi, Felipe, Fernando finish x 3 (in that order) would still be enough for Fernando, but it wouldn't.

Kimi would take it by a point (114-113 for Fernando) with 7 wins to Fernando's 4.

But surely it's a tall order for Kimi to win all 3 races.

**Adam43** · 17 Sep 2007, 20:51 (Ref:2016185)

I too think it is a tall order, but it isn't out of the realms.

Japan, China, Brazil. Fast corners are Ferrari's domain. Slow corners are McLarens. How the relative weight of these pans out we'll see.

I see a final race where a Ferrari driver wins, but a McLaren driver takes the title (just).

pottiella · 17 Sep 2007, 20:53 (Ref:2016191)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr V

2 words actually.........

Unfair penalty

I wasn't actually thinking of that, but hey, that could work too!

I meant the fact Alonso was ahead of Schumi by 11 points going into Monza, and where Alonso's Renault hadn't suffered an Engine failure for like 2 years, it was down to 1 point for the remaining 3 races. So it could happen again, with Kimi benefiting! Still a long way to go...

As for the maths, it is perfectly feasible that Kimi win the last 3 races. He's on form in his Ferrari even when the car isn't terribly fast compared to the McLarens (look at how it ALMOST happened in Monza)...and the remaining 3 tracks I don't think they have any definite favouring towards McLaren.

Yes, Fernando had better watch his back, and getta runnin! lol it's like the hare and the tortoise...

Knowlesy · 17 Sep 2007, 20:56 (Ref:2016194)

What I find amazing is that whenever Alonso is fighting for a title, he has to fend off a fundamentally faster car. What he'd give for a season-dominating car I wonder!

This year is like a double whammy, trying to catch up Lewis, whilst fighting the two rapid Ferrari's. A hideous nightmare.

Dutton · 17 Sep 2007, 20:56 (Ref:2016195)

Well, Mr V, I was more meaning the probability of having those four finishing in that exact order to be so unlikely it is a bit daft.

If Mclaren have a mechanical failure or two, and Ferrari actually capitalise, then things can be up in the air...

I totally accept that it is technically doable for Ferrari to get the WDC, indeed I still hold out a bit of hope, but it is unlikely in the highest degree.

Rory · 17 Sep 2007, 20:57 (Ref:2016196)

I can see Lewis coming back into the game in the last three races. He seems to revel in tracks that he doesn't know that well. Spend some time in the simulator and get that dialed in. He maybe thought the likes of Monza and Spa were tracks he knew like the back of his hand, so would have no probs in setup... but he was a step behind Alonso in both.

I can see at least one track where McLaren will dominate and I reckon Brazil will be more suited to them with it's higher downforce charachteristics (and being slightly bumpy if I recall). China is as smooth as a babies behind, so Ferrari could benefit there. Japan - who knows.

Lewis needs to get his finger out though.

**Bononi** · 17 Sep 2007, 21:14 (Ref:2016219)

Quote:

Originally Posted by AdamAshmore

I too think it is a tall order, but it isn't out of the realms.

Japan, China, Brazil. Fast corners are Ferrari's domain. Slow corners are McLarens. How the relative weight of these pans out we'll see.

I see a final race where a Ferrari driver wins, but a McLaren driver takes the title (just).

Same here from this side !

pottiella · 17 Sep 2007, 21:19 (Ref:2016227)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Knowlesy

What I find amazing is that whenever Alonso is fighting for a title, he has to fend off a fundamentally faster car. What he'd give for a season-dominating car I wonder!

This year is like a double whammy, trying to catch up Lewis, whilst fighting the two rapid Ferrari's. A hideous nightmare.

ssshhhh knowlesy...you're almost giving the impression that he would deserve the title this year if he won, and deserved the last two

Kirk · 17 Sep 2007, 23:46 (Ref:2016323)

In an extraordinary season, the most bizarre I have witnessed for certain, this must be said:

Given the current situation at McLaren, it is entirely possible that in at least one of the remaining 3 races we could see one of the drivers taking out one or both of their cars. The gloves are off between FA and LH and it could get ugly. Meanwhile Kimi is on top of his game and seems poised to pounce on anything thats given him. In the end perhaps Massa, though all but mathematically out of the championship, will hold the key to it all. My more cynical side tells me that he could get reckless

at crunch time and by doing so contribute to McLaren's DNF woes.

Marbot · 18 Sep 2007, 00:09 (Ref:2016331)

I can only see the McLaren duo taking each other out on at least one occasion.And I can only see Ron losing all of what little hair he has left.

And so to Fuji..........where quite often,it rains.

BootsOntheSide · 18 Sep 2007, 08:14 (Ref:2016529)

We saw at the start at Belgium that the McLaren drivers aren't racing quite as gently with each other anymore. With the Constructors' title gone, and only a few safe results needed to beat Ferrari, they can afford to take risks to boost themselves. They can't be working as well together anymore either.

Lewis has been off the boil recently. In the last 6 races he has only beaten Fernando at Hungary (and we'll never know which was truly faster), and was set to in Turkey before the tyre issue. Maybe it's the deterioration of the atmosphere in the team, or the extra pressure, or he was too dependent on Fernando's setups?

I'm thinking Alsono will do it, but if Ferrari can get maximum points for Kimi in Japan and China, a lot could depend on the new Interlagos track surface. Considering how poor Kimi's first half of the season was, he's lucky to be in touch at all.

Kirk · 29 Sep 2007, 18:10 (Ref:2025896)

Based on what we've seen so far in Fuji, the McLarens have rebounded and once again are quicker than the Ferraris. A key strategy for LH was to outqualify FA and to be on the pole is even better. The question in my mind, did he run light fuel to do so? The forecast for more rain should make for an exciting race.

Knowlesy · 29 Sep 2007, 18:54 (Ref:2025924)

What has to be a concern for McLaren is the Ferrari's off the startline have been dynamite usually.

With that long run down to turn one...

Kebab · 29 Sep 2007, 19:09 (Ref:2025935)

We know form prior races that Ferrari aren't quite as good in quali as they are in the race ... so its going to be close I think. Very close. If there are changeable conditions then strategy will be key and I think Ferrari have the upper hand here.

Alonso being 2nd may mean he can't pit at the right time if something happens like rain / safety car ...

That's also ignoring the fact that Massa might start playing bumper cars given the chance to help Ferrari win ... I almost want him to so it goes down to the very last race!

Super Hans · 29 Sep 2007, 19:13 (Ref:2025937)

It's exciting enough having the two title contenders (and burgeoning enemies) on the front row, but the likelihood of rain makes it ten times better.

**Bononi** · 29 Sep 2007, 19:43 (Ref:2025959)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kebab

We know form prior races that Ferrari aren't quite as good in quali as they are in the race ... so its going to be close I think. Very close. If there are changeable conditions then strategy will be key and I think Ferrari have the upper hand here.

Alonso being 2nd may mean he can't pit at the right time if something happens like rain / safety car ...

That's also ignoring the fact that Massa might start playing bumper cars given the chance to help Ferrari win ... I almost want him to so it goes down to the very last race!

I have the feeling that the Macs will just sprint in the front giving no chance to Ferrari... now what it can happen between the two MacLarens is a different matter.

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