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Old 20 Oct 2018, 00:46 (Ref:3857848)   #1
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Join Date: Jul 2001
Somewhere near 2nd Lagrangian point
Posts: 3,183
Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!Schummy has a real shot at the podium!
"Probable probabilities" :-D of FIM GP 2018 titles

Now that we are approaching the decisive races of the season, perhaps is a good time to estimate the probabilities of getting the world champion title or the runner-up or even the third position in the final table.

I have done a bootstrapping statistical procedure to estimate those probs. Basically it is done supposing many scenarios for the next four races based on past performances in races and current amount of points (and some other minor complications).

The results before the last 4 races are:

Marquez 100% (LOL)
(it means it is >99.5%)

Dovi    90%
Rossi   10%

Rossi   87%
Dovi    10%
Vinales  2%
Lorenzo  1%


 Bagnaia   94%
Oliveira   6%

Oliveira  94%
Bagnaia    6%

Binder    90%
Baldasarri 7%
Marquez    2%
 Mir        1%

Martin    81%
Bezzecchi 13%
Digi       6%

Bezzecchi 46%
DiGi      40%
Martin    14%

Digi      54%
Bezzecchi 40%
Martin     4%
Bastianini 2%
In short:

In MotoGP the 2nd and 3rd will be for Dovi and/or Rossi, with marginal chances for 3rd for Maverick and Lorenzo.

Moto2: Title and runner-up for Bagnaia and Oliveira, with massive title advantage for Bagnaia. Third position probably for Binder with possibilities for Balda, and marginal chances for Marquez and Mir.

Moto3: The three first positions fought by Martin, Bezz and DiGi, except marginal chances for Bastianini for 3rd. Martin is the probable World Champion and also probably Bezz and DiGi will have a close battle for 2-3 position.

Last edited by Schummy; 20 Oct 2018 at 00:54.
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Old 21 Oct 2018, 05:17 (Ref:3858077)   #2
Dani Filth
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Join Date: Jul 2002
Posts: 7,562
Dani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridDani Filth should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
me goes to check bet rates ..
it better happen ..

do a bis for Moto3 after the race in Japan
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