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Old 1 Apr 2010, 15:37 (Ref:2664891)   #1
Schummy
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Team mates comparison 2010

Again here comes the thread about team mates in terms of three aspects: qualifying, fast race lap and race classification.

At the moment, just the main four teams are considered for they are interesting pairs and of course they are the front runners. The rest will be (perhaps) included in the future.

The code is as follows. In each race, three digits are shown, for qualifying, fast lap and classification; 1 means the first driver "won", 0 means the second driver "won". "Theoretically", the first driver is chosen to be the a priori fastest driver in the team (of course this can produce a series of debates in certain teams ).
Code:
After 2nd Round (Australia):
        BAH  AUS
VET-WEB 101  100 = 3-3
ALO-MAS 011  100 = 3-3
HAM-BUT 111  010 = 4-2
SCH-ROS 010  000 = 1-5
In terms of statistical significance, it can approximately be considered as "proved" if at the end of the season one driver gets double points that the other. Meanwhile, along the season (i.e. in the few GPs that I put this stat ) I'll show the level of significance of current scores.

As can be seen, the only dramatic score is 1-5 against my namesake (he copied my nick). Probably it will be the most interesting pair to follow in the next races.

Obviously the other pairs are interesting all of them. The wonderboy Vettel against the beloved Webber (I'm not sure about the level of irony in my own phrase). The proud (and not very sympathetic) Alonso against the resilient Massa. The brilliant (perhaps overly) Hamilton versus the calm Button (incidentally, the World Champion).

To be creative, I have to say: let's-see-how-everything-develops.
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Old 2 Apr 2010, 02:19 (Ref:2665207)   #2
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Schummy you are back!

The numbers confuse me so I don't know how to respond, but I thought I should because you know what you are talking about..
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Old 2 Apr 2010, 03:00 (Ref:2665211)   #3
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Thanks

The confusing thing is my fault. I'll try to explain it (more or less) properly.

For example, VET-WEB is 101 in BAH. It means Vettel beat Webber in qualifying and in race result in Bahrain, but was beaten by Webber in fastest race lap. They are 100 in AUS, so in Australia Webber was better in fastest lap and in race result but was worse than Vettel in qualifying. In short, Vettel defeated Webber in 3 things and was defeated in 3 other things.

In each race the first number is qualifying, the second is fastest lap and the third means race result.
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Old 2 Apr 2010, 21:03 (Ref:2665593)   #4
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Confusing as hell - Just the way we like it
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 01:39 (Ref:2665671)   #5
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I love this poster..Brilliant stuff...
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 02:42 (Ref:2665691)   #6
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rocketracer should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridrocketracer should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
thanks a heap Schummy, it's nice to have your stats back again.

Especially on a forum where intangibles are endlessly discussed / argued / pleaded with little prospect of resolution!
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 04:16 (Ref:2665704)   #7
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tblincoe should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
lol
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 15:56 (Ref:2665998)   #8
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neilap should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
God I'm glad its not just me...

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Confusing as hell - Just the way we like it
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 17:26 (Ref:2666029)   #9
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Cougar has a real shot at the podium!Cougar has a real shot at the podium!Cougar has a real shot at the podium!Cougar has a real shot at the podium!
Schummy great job.. Its pretty clear cut.. Same way you did it the last few years?

Thanks
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 18:07 (Ref:2666041)   #10
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Yes, approx the same as former seasons. The "sad" thing about it is that, somewhere in the middle of the season, I don't find the time to do it beyond the first rounds.

Maybe it is just because I'm lazy but probably it's related to the time I have to use in the unwieldy game I host in biker's forum (warning: advertisement), full of piracy, mafia and corruption . By comparison with bikers, Mosley and Briatore look like Mother Theresa and Francis of Assisi (respectively?).
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 18:33 (Ref:2666052)   #11
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The trouble i have with these stats though ...................

If we take my favourite driver, Vettel as an example.

Todays qualifying result actually mean's the Mark is having a better season, but imo, it's anything but due to problems beyond Seb's control.

That said, i enjoy the threads, even if i don't always understand them
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Old 3 Apr 2010, 19:19 (Ref:2666089)   #12
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Each simple datum is subjected to random circumstances, only the accumulation of many of them can possibly throw a reasonable idea about the situation.

So, 4-3 for Webber is not significant, probably is more random than facts (the same if it was 4-3 for Vettel). If we, eventually, reach a 20-19 score for Webber, it would point that probably those two are having a pretty equal season.

Rosberg is now "owning" 6-1 to MSC, that's becoming to look a bit significant, not just random. That's the reason I'll try to include (in the future) the "level of statistical significance" in each team mates score. So one could see what level of "factness"(!!) a particular score shows, or, inversely, what could be just random circumstances . 6-1 would give a higher level of confidence in "Rosberg is doing better than MSC" than 4-3 in "Webber is doing better than Vettel".

The beauty of measuring raw facts (or numbers) is they can be subjected to random events but they are not to subjective opinions. The "bad" side is we have to wait to accumulate enough evidence to make "factual claims".

With these stats we cannot decide who has more "artistry" as a driver, but we could reasonable assert who is "performing" better, beyond good or bad luck.

I find fun and interesting to make theories about what driver is better or worse in just the first races, I do it every time, but these statistics have a different goal: searching a long term "truth" (note the semi-ironic quotes ).
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 03:14 (Ref:2666893)   #13
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Updating after Sepang.
Code:
TEAM    BAH AUS MAL   TOT Lead  Conf.
=====================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB)  0%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO)  0%
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% 
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8  ROS  96.1% <--Warning!
SUT-LIU 110 100 110 = 5-4 (SUT)  0%
BAR-HUL 111 111 111 = 9-0  BAR  99.6% <--Proven!
BUE-ALG 100 100 100 = 3-6 (ALG) 49%
=====================================
"Conf." means statistical "confidence" in that particular driver is leading against his team mate (0% = meaningles, 100% = total confidence). In fact is a "sugar" for statistical significance.

Barry has already demolished the incorrigible Hulk. Ralf's brother is in danger of being demolished as well! He need to produce more in terms of qualifying or fast race laps.

Hamilton and Alguersuari are beginning to build a lead, but there is not enough facts still to conclude anything.

In Red Bull, Ferrari and Force India there is basically equality.
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 10:42 (Ref:2667024)   #14
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Chiefy should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
The Hulk out-qualified Rubens at Sepang, did he not?
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 11:12 (Ref:2667039)   #15
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Hubble should be qualifying in the top 10 on the gridHubble should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
I created a spreadsheet last year in an attempt to analyse driver consistency, and this included allocating points for each driver in every session - practice x3, qualifying, race. 20 points for 1st, 1 for last, with no points awarded for DNF/DNS, unless the driver was included in the final race classification. I wanted to see who would come out on top if all sessions were taken into account. Sadly it was still Button, who I have to admit I've never been a fan of.....
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 12:46 (Ref:2667075)   #16
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The Hulk out-qualified Rubens at Sepang, did he not?
Yes, you're right. I will update the table (and the remark!). Thanks!
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 12:58 (Ref:2667078)   #17
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Fixing the true result for Barry and Hulk in Malaysia's qualifying.
Code:
TEAM    BAH AUS MAL   TOT Lead  Conf.
=====================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB)  0%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO)  0%
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% 
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8  ROS  96.1% <--Warning!
SUT-LIU 110 100 110 = 5-4 (SUT)  0%
BAR-HUL 111 111 011 = 8-1  BAR  96.1% <--Warning!
BUE-ALG 100 100 100 = 3-6 (ALG) 49%
=====================================
After the BAR-HUL fix, Barrichello has not yet "demolished" Hulk, just "almost demolished".

Curiously, the grand total for 1st drivers and 2nd drivers is only 32-31, a virtual equality. Main accountables for this subversion are Rosberg and Alguersuari (or perhaps Schumacher and Buemi, of course).
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 16:05 (Ref:2667164)   #18
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Hendrik should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
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Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
Yes, you're right. I will update the table (and the remark!). Thanks!
And he finished the race 10th, Rubens on 12. Fastest Laps show the Hulk on 11, Rubens on 12.
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 19:43 (Ref:2667274)   #19
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tblincoe should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
I prefer using the BPR to statistically monitor driver performances:

http://bprf1.com/2010/04/05/bpr-upda...an-grand-prix/



Joking aside, through three races I think the only cases of 'out-performance' between teammates are at Mercedes, Renault, and Williams. That being said, it's still way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions...

This will make for an interesting topic over the course of the year due to the driver pairings!

Last edited by tblincoe; 5 Apr 2010 at 19:49.
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 21:37 (Ref:2667348)   #20
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And he finished the race 10th, Rubens on 12. Fastest Laps show the Hulk on 11, Rubens on 12.
Damn! It appears that, somehow, I switched BAR-HUL for HUL-BAR in my notes in this particular GP. I have checked the former two GPs of the Williams pair and they are right (finger crossed).

I'll update the table now. Thanks a lot!
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 21:43 (Ref:2667352)   #21
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Re-fixing the true result for Barry and Hulk in Malaysia. Poor Hulk is finally vindicated (or so I think).
Code:
TEAM    BAH AUS MAL   TOT Lead  Conf.
=====================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB)  0%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO)  0%
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% 
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8  ROS  96.1% <--Warning!
SUT-LIU 110 100 110 = 5-4 (SUT)  0%
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 = 6-3  BAR  49%
BUE-ALG 100 100 100 = 3-6 (ALG) 49%
=====================================
After the BAR-HUL re-fix, Barrichello has not "demolished" Hulk at all (this is becoming hilarious)... yet

The grand total for 1st drivers and 2nd drivers is now 30-33, a "win" for "secundary" drivers. But I will hold any further interpretation until the next fix.
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Old 5 Apr 2010, 22:05 (Ref:2667361)   #22
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Originally Posted by tblincoe View Post
I prefer using the BPR to statistically monitor driver performances:

http://bprf1.com/2010/04/05/bpr-upda...an-grand-prix/



Joking aside, through three races I think the only cases of 'out-performance' between teammates are at Mercedes, Renault, and Williams. That being said, it's still way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions...

This will make for an interesting topic over the course of the year due to the driver pairings!
BPR is interesting. It's another (among many others) performance measurement system, based on more or less the same items but combined in a different way.

Some basic differences are it is a "continuous" system, this is a "discrete" one. Also, BPR uses a sort of trend effect (perhaps with a moving average) in its Power Rating, mine is more as its "Average Rating" (but BPR filters out the "bad" (unreliable?) GPs of each driver, this system don't do it).

For forecasting purposes I use another "system" , but it is another topic.

The accent of this stat is focused on face-to-face team mates struggle.

The good thing is the more numbers we have, the more fun (and headache) we get.
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Old 6 Apr 2010, 08:20 (Ref:2667478)   #23
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Hendrik should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Just one more question, where does Liuzzis point in Malaysia come from? Can't see that. He qualified behind Sutil and his car broke at an early stage of the race.
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Old 7 Apr 2010, 01:27 (Ref:2668020)   #24
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Ultimo should be qualifying in the top 10 on the gridUltimo should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Schummy, how do you come up with the confidence rating?
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Old 7 Apr 2010, 14:32 (Ref:2668289)   #25
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Due to the last fixes, I have done a check of the last round (Malaysia) and I've found that there were many errors (for Sepang) in the three teams I added (Toro Rosso, Force India, Williams), most of them already fixed, but, as Hendrik said, there was an error with Sutil-Liuzzi in race and I got another error with Buemi-Alguersuari in fast laps. Apparently the procedure used was buggy, so I checked by hand (or eye, rather).

So I have reached at this "fixed" table. We can call it the Table Service Pack 2.
Code:
TEAM    BAH AUS MAL   TOT Lead  Conf.
=====================================
VET-WEB 101 100 001 = 4-5 (WEB)  0%
ALO-MAS 011 100 110 = 5-4 (ALO)  0%
HAM-BUT 111 010 011 = 6-3 (HAM) 49% 
SCH-ROS 010 000 000 = 1-8  ROS  96.1% <--Warning!
SUT-LIU 110 100 111 = 6-3 (SUT) 49%
BAR-HUL 111 111 000 = 6-3  BAR  49%
BUE-ALG 100 100 110 = 4-5 (ALG)  0%
=====================================
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