It is official: Holden to axe a Commodore!

[Chris - Melb]

What more can I say!

The Commodore it is going to be replaced by a US model in 2016: http://news.drive.com.au/drive/motor...322-1vko9.html

So what will Holden be racing then?

Postscript, could a moderator change the thread subject to: It is official: Holden to axe the Commodore!

[PVDA]

Originally Posted by Chris - Melb

The Commodore it is going to be replaced by a US model in 2016

No not a US car but a world car that will be the same in the entire GM empire.

No different to the Cruze which is built and sold with different badges world wide.

GM-H will race whatever body style they see fit, after all there is zero Holden/Ford/Nissan parts in the chassis of the CoTF.

[Chris - Melb]

Originally Posted by PVDA

No not a US car but a world car that will be the same in the entire GM empire.

Please name your source.

Not that it matters if its USA or world; all that matters is it's not an Australian Commodore!

[Oldtony]

Originally Posted by PVDA

GM-H will race whatever body style they see fit, after all there is zero Holden/Ford/Nissan parts in the chassis of the CoTF.

I realise that V8SC is an entertainment medium with very little in the way of links to the auto industry, and thus CoTF makes good sense to them.

If you look back over the period of the strongest and most influential era of automotive design, R&D and production in Australia it was the time when the cars we racede were closest to the cars we built and sold. Rose tinted spectacles I know but the GTHO, Monaros of varied eras, and even the Australian development that went into Godzilla were respected world wide.

Has the long term, and now final, move away from production car racing in Australia been a part of the run down of the Industry, and R&D in particular?

[Chris - Melb]

Originally Posted by Oldtony

Has the long term, and now final, move away from production car racing in Australia been a part of the run down of the Industry, and R&D in particular?

The trouble is that modern tyres make production car racing boring to watch because they have too much grip.

There are some people who claim they want to watch production car racing, but the trouble is they don't seem to attend the events when they are on, judging by the extremely poor crowd numbers.

I wish we could we could rewind back time to the late 60s/early 70s; those were the days...

[Tourer]

Actually, it's not official at all - that article linked in the first post refers to SPECULATION before the official announcement suggesting that Commodore could be dropped.

Here is the article that reports what was actually announced and whilst it doesn't provide a cast iron guarantee that Commodore will stay forever, it certainly doesn't announce the demise of the Commodore:
http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/h...322-1vl34.html

Postscript: Maybe a mod should change the thread title to "unproven speculation that Holden will drop Commodore".

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by Chris - Melb

The trouble is that modern tyres make production car racing boring to watch because they have too much grip.

There are some people who claim they want to watch production car racing, but the trouble is they don't seem to attend the events when they are on, judging by the extremely poor crowd numbers.

I wish we could we could rewind back time to the late 60s/early 70s; those were the days...

Yes there is production car racing in Australia, whatever they call the series this year. I get almost all the footage every year and watch it while trimming my toe nails or browsing the internet or writing an email.

The reality is that it might be of some interest to all us motor racing nerds but to the general public it isn't. They don't watch on tv or attend races in big numbers.

I don't think production car racing was ever that big anyways with the research I have done. Back in the 60's and 70's it was mostly a support series to Sports Sedans or the Tasman Series or something else. The ATCC was always erratic in organization and often poorly supported.

[Oldtony]

The link provides a much clearer picture.
Logic would suggest that Holden could provide the expertise for R&D on the Large Rear Wheel Drive platform.
LRWD will only be a niche market in the future, but for a World Manufacturer it is an important niche, providing platforms for specialised uses such as Utes, Police vehicles, High performance and luxury models and for medium size "soft road' SUVs.
Let's hope we can keep and develop that expertise because if we go for a "small green" option we will be swamped by the R&D thrown at that sector by much bigger industries than ours.
And of course if the sport could provide an opportunity to test, develop and demonstrate that platform it might even be in the national interest.

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by Tourer

Actually, it's not official at all - that article linked in the first post refers to SPECULATION before the official announcement suggesting that Commodore could be dropped.

Here is the article that reports what was actually announced and whilst it doesn't provide a cast iron guarantee that Commodore will stay forever, it certainly doesn't announce the demise of the Commodore:
http://smh.drive.com.au/motor-news/h...322-1vl34.html

Postscript: Maybe a mod should change the thread title to "unproven speculation that Holden will drop Commodore".

Well the days are over for a manufacturer to develop and spend $1 billion on a car platform for a market of only 25 million people. If you don't have a platform that can at least be used(sold or manufactured) in other markets around the world, it aint gonna happen.

It's what the Ford Falcon fans don't get and it's why that is an orphan product that has limited life to live.

[racer69]

Originally Posted by mountainstar

I don't think production car racing was ever that big anyways with the research I have done. Back in the 60's and 70's it was mostly a support series to Sports Sedans or the Tasman Series or something else.

Bathurst 500 between 1963 and 1972 wasn't ever that big?

What was the Bathurst 500 a support race for in those years?

Originally Posted by mountainstar

The ATCC was always erratic in organization and often poorly supported.

The ATCC has never been run to Series Production rules, there has always been some levels of 'hotting up' allowed since it started in 1960.

[Razor]

My reaction to Holden axing the Commodore

[mountainstar]

Originally Posted by racer69

Bathurst 500 between 1963 and 1972 wasn't ever that big?

What was the Bathurst 500 a support race for in those years?

The ATCC has never been run to Series Production rules, there has always been some levels of 'hotting up' allowed since it started in 1960.

Did you notice I said "mostly"? And even back then it wasn't the biggest game in town.

I included the ATCC as some would consider that production based.

People can nit pick here and there, but when it comes down to it, production car racing has never been a swinging success.

[Chris - Melb]

Originally Posted by Tourer

Actually, it's not official at all... Postscript: Maybe a mod should change the thread title to "unproven speculation that Holden will drop Commodore".

Mike Devereux is reported here that he has told the government that the Commodore is dead: http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...2579C9001A228E

[johnh875]

Originally Posted by mountainstar

Well the days are over for a manufacturer to develop and spend $1 billion on a car platform for a market of only 25 million people. If you don't have a platform that can at least be used(sold or manufactured) in other markets around the world, it aint gonna happen.

It's what the Ford Falcon fans don't get and it's why that is an orphan product that has limited life to live.

It wasn't the original plan that the Commodore was only ever intended to be sold in Australia, it was supposed to go to the US as well. From memory there wouldn't have been a wagon except for the US market. Then at the eleventh hour the rug was pulled from under Holden and they were stuck with having spent far more on the platform than they would have if it was Australia-only.

Who knows, Holden could go back to their past ways and enlarge the Alpha platform like they did the Opel platform for the VT, the Commodore has had this sort of change in the past. On the other hand if they go FWD is it really a Commodore any more?

[Oldtony]

Mountainstar, where the hell were you from 1965 to 85?
Yes even though the "Factory Specials"like the Cortina GT 500, the Mini Coopers, Ford GT and GTHO, Valiant Pacer and Charger, BMWs, Volvos and Torana XU1, A9X etc. were not true series production models, but they were production based. Even the car that accused of killing off production based racing, Godzilla, were production based.
Evan Green killed the off the factory race car, build it and sell it programe but he couldn't kill off the public enthusiasm for PRODUCTION BASED racing.
During those years it was the biggest game in town.
Tasman was a great series, but it never had the popularity and fan support that the Touring Cars had in those years.
Please don't try and re-write history to serve your argument.
And please don't say that V8SC is in any way production based.

[Chris - Melb]

Originally Posted by Oldtony

Mountainstar, where the hell were you from 1965 to 85?
BASED racing.

Judging by the flag on his profile, probably in the USA.

Even if you only include the period up until 1972 when true production racing ended, Bathurst was the biggest race of the year and the Sandown enduro not far behind. Okay, Series Prod wasn't quite as big as Improved Production Touring Cars but it wasn't that far behind either.

Production car racing these days isn't even on the radar.

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by Chris - Melb

Mike Devereux is reported here that he has told the government that the Commodore is dead: http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...2579C9001A228E

Two parts of that article kinda cross over each other, first this:
"Holden chairman and managing director Mike Devereux confirmed in Canberra today that the locally developed Zeta large-car platform will not continue beyond the VF Commodore launched next year and that the company’s engineers and designers would be increasingly involved in international programs."

Then this:
"Mr Devereux today would not comment on the future of the Commodore beyond the VF."

Neither of them say though, that Commodore is officially dumped, just that the platform is going to be global and downsized. That global platform for example, could be developed here for the rest of the world or the global platform could be used as a base for a locally developed variant, called Commodore (which is how the VB Commodore came about of course).

No official dumping or axeing at this stage really and if the decision is taken to dump or axe, it won't happen for at least four years from now.

[Chris - Melb]

Yes, a global platform but not uniquely Australian. It's the same argument that has been laid here on this forum about Ford possibly replacing the Australian architecture of future Falcons with, say, the Taurus.

Holden doesn't want to announce it to the public because it fears that Commodore sales will drop as a result. Who wants to buy a car that is facing the chop?

Holden would have had to tell the various governments (in confidence) more precisely what their plans are to get all the funding. Obviously it sounds like someone has leaked...

[Juarez Jed]

I would guess it will be based on the Epsilon ll platform (Malibu) or the LWB Super Epsilon ll (Impala).

[Chris - Melb]

Originally Posted by Juarez Jed

I would guess it will be based on the Epsilon ll platform (Malibu) or the LWB Super Epsilon ll (Impala).

That is what is being suggested here: http://www.themotorreport.com.au/537...-co-investment

[Tourer]

Originally Posted by Chris - Melb

Yes, a global platform but not uniquely Australian. It's the same argument that has been laid here on this forum about Ford possibly replacing the Australian architecture of future Falcons with, say, the Taurus.

Holden doesn't want to announce it to the public because it fears that Commodore sales will drop as a result. Who wants to buy a car that is facing the chop?

Holden would have had to tell the various governments (in confidence) more precisely what their plans are to get all the funding. Obviously it sounds like someone has leaked...

Guess we'll have to wait and see Chris. Of course, some of it is about understanding what the word "platform" needs in the motor industry. VW group for instance have developed a new platform that will underpin up to 60 different models from Polo size to Passat size - all of them quite different to each other but off the same platform with front, four and rear wheel drive versions. Thus, Holden could build a unique Australian car off the GM platform.

Don't know about people not buying cars facing the chop - models begin and end all the time in the motor industry and they companies concerned normally have a way of dealing with that to assist sales rate.

Interesting times, no doubt about it.

[Downoz]

Originally Posted by Chris - Melb

What more can I say!

The Commodore it is going to be replaced by a US model in 2016: http://news.drive.com.au/drive/motor...322-1vko9.html

So what will Holden be racing then?

Postscript, could a moderator change the thread subject to: It is official: Holden to axe the Commodore!

Gee Chris, I really hope that they do replace the Commodore, because if they dont I am worried that you may neck yourself, it has really got you worried.

[Chris - Melb]

Originally Posted by Downoz

Gee Chris, I really hope that they do replace the Commodore, because if they dont I am worried that you may neck yourself, it has really got you worried.

Not to worry, I will be on cloud nine until then with the knowledge that one avenue for Ford critics has now been shut down. Commodore is now in the same boat as Falcon, although arguably the side of the boat that the Commodore is on seems to have marginally more leaks.

In the meantime the rope stays put!

[Downoz]

Good on ya Chris. Mate I would like to have a crystal ball and see what the Australian car industry, if one, was like in 20 years

[anthony81901]

No doubt both the Commodore and Falcon are on the slippery slope to oblivion. But the Commodore's sales are somewhat healthier than its long time rival.

In 2010 unit sales were (rounded to nearest 100) Commodore 46,000 vs Falcon 29,600, a ratio of 1.55 Commodores to every Falcon.

In 2011 it was 40,600 vs 18,700 a ratio of 2.17.

YTD for 2012 it is 5,800 vs 2,100 a ratio in excess of 2.7.

Putting it in perspective 2003 full year sales were 86,000 and 73,000 meaning Commodore sales dropped 53% in the 8 years to 2011, Falcon 74%.

Obviously lots of factors have contributed move to smaller cars, SUVs, other competitors, strong $A etc. While the EcoBoost may increase sales will have to see what the market thinks considering it is for sale at the same price as the 6 cylinder. GMH tried a 4 cylinder Comodore in the 80s that was a lemon.

So while the Commodore does appear to have a limited future, the numbers suggest that the Falcon's may be even more so.