[Rules] Future Rule Changes

[Casper]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

Hybrids will be here for at least another 10-15 years lol. Probably closer to 20.

Find me some vehicle releases planned for after 2020 that is a hybrid AND is not already on the drawing board. Every European manufacturer has already announced that pure EV is what they are going to release. There may be some in the process of being made but after that it will be EV only.

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by Casper

Find me some vehicle releases planned for after 2020 that is a hybrid AND is not already on the drawing board. Every European manufacturer has already announced that pure EV is what they are going to release. There may be some in the process of being made but after that it will be EV only.

It might be poor wording, but you are asking for examples of cars announced but in which nobody is working on? That sound like an impossible scenario? Who announces vehicles without having done some level of design, cost and marketing analysis?

This is a serious question (as I don’t know the answer), but what is the length of a vehicle or platform design lifecycle? Meaning, once they put pen to paper (design, or even research), how long until the car hits the showroom floor? I suspect that most platforms that we will see in 2020 and just beyond are well under development today.

I frankly don’t know much about this topic, but quick Google searches shows manufacturers clearly saying they plan to get into the EV market in a big way, but at times they blur the lines between pure electric only and a combo of pure EV and hybrids. For example, I found one from Mercedes which stated a blended approach and that includes plans for 2022 and maybe beyond.

What I expect is to be an ongoing reduction in pure hydrocarbon engines, ongoing growth in hybrid and a large growth in full electric. Also, a lot needs to happen between now and 2020 such as a charging infrastructure that rivals our current fueling infrastructure. 2020 is not far away. Pure EV will be a growing market, but it will be a phased introduction with gas/diesel, hybrid and full EV coexisting.

Richard

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Casper

Find me some vehicle releases planned for after 2020 that is a hybrid AND is not already on the drawing board. Every European manufacturer has already announced that pure EV is what they are going to release. There may be some in the process of being made but after that it will be EV only.

The Mercedes C63 AMG Hybrid planned for 2021 (not the 2019 C63).
The replacement for the SL.

Both planned for early next decade, both confirmed by Mercedes as Hybrid powered. Both not in design yet.

[Oldtony]

Can anyone predict when the Electric Highways needed to traverse big, sparsely settled countries like Canada, Australia, parts of both North and South America, Asia, Russia etc will have outlets at frequent enough intervals to suit even advanced battery EVs?
If you are a grey nomad sitting in Broome WA in an EV and want to go somewhere best of luck!

[bjohnsonsmith]

Originally Posted by Oldtony

Can anyone predict when the Electric Highways needed to traverse big, sparsely settled countries like Canada, Australia, parts of both North and South America, Asia, Russia etc will have outlets at frequent enough intervals to suit even advanced battery EVs?
If you are a grey nomad sitting in Broome WA in an EV and want to go somewhere best of luck!

That's a long way off. However, I think there will be an increased use of EVs in cities.

[Oldtony]

Originally Posted by bjohnsonsmith

That's a long way off. However, I think there will be an increased use of EVs in cities.

That's my point BJS.

EVs are the future but hybrids have a very long future outside the cities.
Going back to my earlier post in reply to Casper I would repeat that hybrids have effectively given F1 a stay of execution. There are powerful influences that see the sport as ecologically unsustainable.
The long term problem is coming up with a set of future rules that will regain the interest of people who do not see the auto as their personal transport or an engagement in sport.

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by Casper

Find me some vehicle releases planned for after 2020 that is a hybrid AND is not already on the drawing board. Every European manufacturer has already announced that pure EV is what they are going to release. There may be some in the process of being made but after that it will be EV only.

The entire Volvo range.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Akrapovic

The entire Volvo range.

Every Toyota model they plan to fit the THS II engine into.....

[chillibowl]

so i certainly agree that the world market place is far to diverse for one solution to work everywhere and that the costs of converting, updating, or building new infrastructure to satisfy an all EV future is still way to high (and fraught with too many unknowns) for there to be any industry consensus on what the best solution going forward is.

the market will decide and probably not in a way any of us can anticipate.

until that point though, i dont really see what is wrong with F1 pursuing a thermally efficient hybrid model.

of course there is a cost issue here, but for me i see that as more of a problem of FOM's financial model and this desire for F1 engine manus to have their customer teams directly and indirectly subsidize their R&D programs (beyond the scope of the prize money they already take).

if they want to develop a hybrid engine and use it in F1 i think thats great...but surely if they want a return on this investment they have (as a massive multinationals) the ability to sell cars to recoup their input costs.

for example, if Merc sell all 300 units of their hybrid Project One car (which i think they may have already) for 3mill per then thats close to 1 billion they will make.

so they clearly have the ability to monetize their research without having to resort to dragging Williams or Force India over the coals for their engine supply.

i dont mind complicated engines or technology i just dislike their pricing models in F1.

and of course that brings us back to the topic of cost caps!

[Richard C]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

so i certainly agree that the world market place is far to diverse for one solution to work everywhere and that the costs of converting, updating, or building new infrastructure to satisfy an all EV future is still way to high (and fraught with too many unknowns) for there to be any industry consensus on what the best solution going forward is.

the market will decide and probably not in a way any of us can anticipate.

Absolutely. Particularly as to the unpredictability of the future.

Originally Posted by chillibowl

until that point though, i dont really see what is wrong with F1 pursuing a thermally efficient hybrid model.

One extra thing to add. I am not an expert in this field, but sometimes you see it said that the development curve on the prior V8 engines was flat. That there was "not much left to do". I tend to think that in hindsight that is not true. That while EV and hybrid power may be the future, that given the technical challenges of the current spec (both F1 and WEC), that manufactures have taken combustion efficiency to another level (at great costs in R&D however!). Even if fuel restrictions was freed up in a new spec, it would all just be used to create more power and you may still yet have teams conserving fuel at times (load the car with less to reduce weight).

My point is that even if we were to revert to a "simple" NA V8/V10 engine, much of what they have learned with the current spec can't be forgotten. So if the engineers from today could time travel back to the days of the NA V8 engines, I expect they would create better solutions using even technology from that era. And it would also be costly. This also goes with my prior comments in that they will spend as much as the sponsorship provides. So even a simple formula might remain expensive "if" the R&D costs is viewed as productive by those with deep pockets.

Originally Posted by chillibowl

and of course that brings us back to the topic of cost caps!

I know its not a popular concept here and many say "can't be done". But I say... give it a real try.

Richard

[EffectiveSprinkles]

The gains made in fuel consumption reduction in ICEs are pretty insane the last 5-6 years even. Take a sideways glance at the current Toyota LMP1 which is the fastest (legal ) LMP prototype ever made around every track it goes to. And it does that while consuming a ridiculously low amount of fuel and with incredible efficiency. F1 engines are slightly worse in that regard but that's mostly just a difference in sporting regulations rather than a technical reason. The current crop of F1 cars are not the fastest but definitely the most efficient.

I would go so far as to say the past 5 years there have been way more gains made in ICE technology than EV technology. I mean, VW for example spends like 4 billion on R&D a year, only a fraction of that is spent on EVs. Oh, they also announced 9 new 'electric vehicles' for 2020. But only two of those are EVs, the others are hybrids.

[Richard C]

I found this article interesting.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/c...a-lot/3161292/

Especially the perspective of the drivers (or some of the drivers) who don't drive for Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull. The following quote, at some level I guess I knew this, but it is still shocking to read the statistic in black and white (I added the bold)...

Perez is one of the only drivers outside those teams to score a podium in the last three seasons, which he says is because F1 has changed significantly even since 2012, when he scored three podiums for a Sauber team that was not even best of the rest.

I figured I would see what the driver championship would look like for the "B Class". I awarded points using the current system, but I also pretended that the drivers for those three teams just didn't exist in the results. I hope my math is right. The order is slightly different. I think that is because sometimes drivers from the top three teams finish down in the order and their removal moves some drivers up a good bit in the points.

Nico Hülkenberg	169
Kevin Magnussen	147
Carlos Sainz Jr.	133
Fernando Alonso	123
Esteban Ocon	113
Sergio Pérez	106
Pierre Gasly	89
Romain Grosjean	74
Charles Leclerc	65
Stoffel Vandoorne	62
Marcus Ericsson	52
Brendon Hartley	34
Lance Stroll	32
Sergey Sirotkin	10

Anyhow, look out for potential B Class champion Nico Hulkenburg! Also, Alonso would have won two races and been on the podium five times!

Richard

[S griffin]

This is one of the reasons Fred left. Autosport does it’s own class B championship on the website. Quite frankly, you can’t blame the top three teams for giving it their all, but at the same time, it would be good to see more teams at least closer to them, as more competition at the top would be very healthy for the series

[loon]

all those poor old drivers in cars that can't win, why don't they just sod off and get a winning drive in the blancpain gt series

[EffectiveSprinkles]

I do wonder though. How many times have there been more than three teams capable of wins and podiums in F1 during a stretch of years? I might be wrong about this but I think eras of dominance by one or two teams are the norm, not the exception.

[leothedrummer]

Originally Posted by EffectiveSprinkles

I do wonder though. How many times have there been more than three teams capable of wins and podiums in F1 during a stretch of years? I might be wrong about this but I think eras of dominance by one or two teams are the norm, not the exception.

I know you're talking about pure dominance which is a little bit different, but I just had a quick glance and 2012 had 6 different teams picking up wins, including 5 different winning teams in the first 5 races.

Curious to know about podiums though.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

The Mercedes C63 AMG Hybrid planned for 2021 (not the 2019 C63).
The replacement for the SL.

Both planned for early next decade, both confirmed by Mercedes as Hybrid powered. Both not in design yet.

Yes and both planned in the interim period to get to point where full EV takes over. You would have to be totally silly to say the full EV will be the only thing produced after 2020, clearly that is not the case, there is big parts of this world that clearly do not have the infrastructure and won't have in the foreseeable future. Hybrids have already got the chop in planning and ICE vehicles will be produced parallel to full electrical vehicles to service the areas where EV's are not feasible. This coming period is going to be very interesting to watch. Watch the latest EV AUDI media day to see some of what they are saying regarding EV's and not a word about hybrid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7ZjkoJgXWk

If I had my bet I would say range extenders will be a transition design as it makes way more sense to design a very efficient small compact motor that operates at a constant speed and load than have a large IC motor to take over when the batteries go flat. A motor operating in a fixed range will be optimised for fuel efficiency and emissions and have a huge range as well but this does not appear to have been taken up yet in light passenger vehicles while truck fleets are all over it.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by Oldtony

Can anyone predict when the Electric Highways needed to traverse big, sparsely settled countries like Canada, Australia, parts of both North and South America, Asia, Russia etc will have outlets at frequent enough intervals to suit even advanced battery EVs?
If you are a grey nomad sitting in Broome WA in an EV and want to go somewhere best of luck!

Ask a European where Broome is and he will look at you with a blank expression. Why does everyone bring up scenarios of remote travel in when we all know it is impossible? Clearly it is a stupid question when everyone knows that the answer will be the thick end of a hundred years away.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by Richard Casto

It might be poor wording, but you are asking for examples of cars announced but in which nobody is working on? That sound like an impossible scenario? Who announces vehicles without having done some level of design, cost and marketing analysis?

This is a serious question (as I don’t know the answer), but what is the length of a vehicle or platform design lifecycle? Meaning, once they put pen to paper (design, or even research), how long until the car hits the showroom floor? I suspect that most platforms that we will see in 2020 and just beyond are well under development today.

I frankly don’t know much about this topic, but quick Google searches shows manufacturers clearly saying they plan to get into the EV market in a big way, but at times they blur the lines between pure electric only and a combo of pure EV and hybrids. For example, I found one from Mercedes which stated a blended approach and that includes plans for 2022 and maybe beyond.

What I expect is to be an ongoing reduction in pure hydrocarbon engines, ongoing growth in hybrid and a large growth in full electric. Also, a lot needs to happen between now and 2020 such as a charging infrastructure that rivals our current fueling infrastructure. 2020 is not far away. Pure EV will be a growing market, but it will be a phased introduction with gas/diesel, hybrid and full EV coexisting.

Richard

Cars take about 6 years end to end to design so the timeline for EV goes something like this

2008-2012 - Tesla start to become noticeable with the first roadster and everyone shrugs their shoulders but companies are now admitting they were dabbling around in the same territory.

2012 - Tesla launch their sedan and the world starts to take notice and the big manufacturers decide s**t is getting real but they have no way to catch up until 2019/2020.

2014'ish - they know only way they can get onto the bandwagon is Barstardize existing cars into hybrids as a temporary measure so they start doing that. Those cars will be obselete at the beginning of the present decade and their totally new EV production will be introduced into the market about then.

2017 - The Chinese told the manufacturers to get their act together as they require about 25% total electric car production by 2022???, about then but I can't be bothered to look it up. In effect the world motor industry is about to reinvent itself for the first time since it came into being. Guess what, every motor manufacturer wants in to the Chinese market so they have to comply as they can see that their western production plants can't keep up and they need Chinese production capacity, witness the latest barney between Tesla and the Chinese government. https://www.google.com.au/search?cli...UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Meanwhile while all this is going on various governments and cities are starting to clamp down on diesel and also petrol motor use in various areas from mid next decade.

And people in various fora around the world are denying that all this is happening and shoving the head in the sand saying the world is going to end. You've got to love the internet. If you want to make some money buy European manufacturer shares and Lithium mining.

[Casper]

Originally Posted by EffectiveSprinkles

. Oh, they also announced 9 new 'electric vehicles' for 2020. But only two of those are EVs, the others are hybrids.

Yep, all designed in the last 5 years. How many hybrids do you think they will be currently designing for release in the next decade? My guess is zero.

[Akrapovic]

Originally Posted by Casper

Yep, all designed in the last 5 years. How many hybrids do you think they will be currently designing for release in the next decade? My guess is zero.

They currently are being designed and will be released in the next decade. That meets your criteria.

Saying "Show me cars that are not on the drawing board yet" is ridiculous. You yourself said that cars are designed over 5 or so years. Car manufacturers don't announce that far ahead. So what you're asking for is proof that cars that haven't been announced yet, exist. But aren't on the drawing board.

I don't get it. Anyway, hybrids aren't going away any time soon. I'm a big supporter of EVs, but we're decades away from having the infrastructure to cope with a full country of them.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Casper

Yes and both planned in the interim period to get to point where full EV takes over. You would have to be totally silly to say the full EV will be the only thing produced after 2020, clearly that is not the case, there is big parts of this world that clearly do not have the infrastructure and won't have in the foreseeable future. Hybrids have already got the chop in planning and ICE vehicles will be produced parallel to full electrical vehicles to service the areas where EV's are not feasible.

Ahem...

Originally Posted by Casper

Find me some vehicle releases planned for after 2020 that is a hybrid AND is not already on the drawing board. Every European manufacturer has already announced that pure EV is what they are going to release. There may be some in the process of being made but after that it will be EV only.

2020 is far too close for it to be an EV-only market. And there will be new hybrids, that are not even planned yet, that will appear after 2020.
The examples given are exactly what you said didn't exist - cars that are not in design yet, but will be released after 2020?

Last time I checked, MB were a European Manufacturer?

Full EV may appear in time, but we may also see an alternative come along that trumps EV before it gains exclusivity.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Casper

Watch the latest EV AUDI media day to see some of what they are saying regarding EV's and not a word about hybrid.

Shocked - you mean to say that an EV Media Day only covered EV?

Originally Posted by Casper

If I had my bet I would say range extenders will be a transition design as it makes way more sense to design a very efficient small compact motor that operates at a constant speed and load than have a large IC motor to take over when the batteries go flat. A motor operating in a fixed range will be optimised for fuel efficiency and emissions and have a huge range as well but this does not appear to have been taken up yet in light passenger vehicles while truck fleets are all over it.

Chevrolet Volt - BMW i3?

[Akrapovic]

Range extenders have the issue that when you're running off the power than the generator is creating for you, that it limits your speed quite drastically. Range extenders also have the problem that if you're going on the idea that you need it "just in case", then you're lugging around a large electric generator, using up energy, for no gain the majority of the time.

The range extender generator is about safety and not being stranded. It is, in itself, not a concept for a full vehicle. It's to calm down range anxiety.

[broadrun96]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

Shocked - you mean to say that an EV Media Day only covered EV?




Chevrolet Volt - BMW i3?

The Volt is closer to a true hybrid with a different charging system and ability to turn off the engine entirely. It still uses the engine to drive the wheels as well as the electric generator. The i3 and I believe i8 both use the engines purely to drive the electric generator without any mechanical connection to the drive line. True range extender vehicles are not as ubiquitous as people want to think, rare is closer to accurate. Or at least as how many tech and car magazines have defined range extender vs hybrid cars, it's a difference in how the systems are connected to the road way but I don't think it's a universal separation. I thought that was the stated goal at the start of the Volt program but apparently they decided to actually connect the engine for periodic assist but it is not always connected to the gear set. I have seen some call anything that can be plugged in that also uses gas a range extender model but I'd say the i3 model with an optional add-on a stand alone unit would be the future. And easier to make modular systems to sell in differing locations, urban markers without the boost or smaller system and still have the ability to add larger units or tanks if needed for more suburban or rural use.

The demand to show hybrids are dead seems like a personal desire to demonstrate they are right more than accurate. In the US the big 3 and Toyota are all working on or in the case of Ram have announced new booster hybrid systems for their light duty trucks. There are also future models of current cars to be hybrid and EVs so not sure where the hybrid is dead is coming from. The newly announced cars will all be EV because the hybrids exist already and aren't due for a refresh for a while, hell Nissan just rolled out their new Leaf a couple years ago after years with the old model and that's your target EV. Cars take time and NO ONE EVER announces a car until the last possible moment, why say in 5 years you'll see this, and then be stuck in a schedule and a look. Announce a plan and then work to the goal, and no one other than Tesla had said EV only, they're all covering all their bases with at the very least hybrid and EVs.