Moto Grand Prix FIM 2021: Probability of Title

[Schummy]

Before the FranceGP and after the first 4 races, I, being a boring person, just wanted to make a calculation of "probability of getting the title", according to the current points situation. The (approximate) results for the three categories are:

(First number is the point gap, second number is "one-race-gap", third number is the approximate probability.)

MotoGP
BAG           33%
QUA   2  0.5  27%
VIN  16  4.1   8%
MIR  17  4.4   8%
ZAR  18  4.6   7%
MIL  27  7.0   4%
AESP 31  8.0   3%
MOR  33  8.5   2%
RIN  43 11.1   1%

Moto2
GAR           32%
LOW   3  0.8  24%
FER   6  1.5  18%
BEZ  13  3.4  10%
DIG  17  4.4   7%
ROB  38  9.8   2%
CAN  39 10.1   1%
VIE  43 11.1   1%

Moto3
ACO           75%
ANT  51 13.2   3%
MIG  53 13.7   3%
FEN  55 14.2   3%
MAS  56 14.5   2%
BIN  59 15.2   2%
SAS  62 16.0   2%

The basic supposition is things will continue without any disruption in current performance of makers (or less likely, teams and riders). An example of possible disruption is Marc Marquez really getting back to form.