(Disclaimer: this post is not going to be liked by anybody. Those who are lovers of numbers will find a very thick and unnecessary wordy first part. Those who hate numbers will find an amount of them in the last part. Finally, those who hate long post are going to find... a long post.)

In this strange NeoWeirdness where we currently are, it could be confuse to gauge the level of likelihood each driver has in the title chase. Let's forget for a moment that if you don't drive a TotoCar you simply are not going to win the championship. Let's pretend that a number of drivers/cars have a chance, as if F1 were Indycar or MotoGP.

Has Leclerc some chance? Is Vettel totally out? What about Max, does he have a significative chance?

My point of view is through what last year I pompously called "One Race Gap". This means the transformation of the current gap from the driver to the top score driver (Lewis, of course) to an equivalent gap if only had one race to go. It is easier to evaluate the difficulty to overcome a point gap in one race than evaluate the difficulty to do it in a future number of races.

For example, Max (Verstappen, but "Max" is shorter LOL) has 52 points against 88 for LH (that is even shorter than writing "Lewis"

). That's a 36 point gap (math, math!

) with 9 races to go (COVID willing). It is not immediately clear if it is reasonably doable or perhaps very difficult. But if I say that it is equivalent to a 12 point gap with just one race to go, then our intuitive idea is clearer. Let's imagine we have one remaining race and Verstappen (I mean Max) is 12 points behind Lewis Hamilton (...), it looks rather bad for Marko's boy but it is feasible... as long as LH has a major incident (perhaps a puncture?).

So, I think we could agree is clearer to judge a 12 points gap with one race to go than a 36 points gap with 9 races to go. The 12 points gap would be the One Race Gap equivalent to the 36 points gap with 9 races to go.

Ok but, how the ORG is calculated? Sadly I cannot tell it because it is a copyrighted method of mine... LOL obviously this is a joke because the ORG is not going to make rich anybody and, above all, I described it last year in a thread, so I cannot hide it behind a copyright.

ORG is very simply computed dividing the actual gap by the square root of number of remaining races. So, Max's ORG is 36/sqrt(9) = 12. Is not it neat? (*_*)'

The following table contains the ORGs (ORG is ORG, not the initials of another very different dirty thing) for the main "contenders" (I should use here a ton of double quotes).

Code:

HAM mer[88]
BOT mer 30 10.0 10%
VER rbr 36 12.0 8%
NOR mcl 52 17.3 3%
LEC fer 55 18.3 3%
ALB rbr 62 20.7 2%
PER poi 66 22.0 2%
STR poi 68 22.7 1%
RIC ren 68 22.7 1%
SAI mcl 73 24.3 1%

First number is actual gap, second number is ORG, that is the equivalent gap with one race to go. Finally, third number is an estimation of the probability of overcoming that gap.

Nobody (except Hamilton himself...

) has "easy" this title. Think about Bottas having to get 10 points more than LH with just one race. Possible, yes, easy task, no.

Bottas and Verstappen (i.e. Max) are the only ones with a reasonable probability. The rest of them are in a dark and cold probabilistic purgatory (does really exist a cold purgatory??). And Vettel effectively is out, out of the title chase and out of Ferrari, of course.

I am happy to have been able to reach the end of this "long and winding" post, I thought I would never do it. If there is still someone reading this last part, please blink two times, so I can know... and check your brain with a professional. Probably you need to take hidroxicholoroquina as soon as possible.