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Old 4 Aug 2020, 13:14 (Ref:3992908)   #1
Schummy
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Towards de title 2020. Warning: calculations!

(Disclaimer: this post is not going to be liked by anybody. Those who are lovers of numbers will find a very thick and unnecessary wordy first part. Those who hate numbers will find an amount of them in the last part. Finally, those who hate long post are going to find... a long post.)



In this strange NeoWeirdness where we currently are, it could be confuse to gauge the level of likelihood each driver has in the title chase. Let's forget for a moment that if you don't drive a TotoCar you simply are not going to win the championship. Let's pretend that a number of drivers/cars have a chance, as if F1 were Indycar or MotoGP.


Has Leclerc some chance? Is Vettel totally out? What about Max, does he have a significative chance?


My point of view is through what last year I pompously called "One Race Gap". This means the transformation of the current gap from the driver to the top score driver (Lewis, of course) to an equivalent gap if only had one race to go. It is easier to evaluate the difficulty to overcome a point gap in one race than evaluate the difficulty to do it in a future number of races.


For example, Max (Verstappen, but "Max" is shorter LOL) has 52 points against 88 for LH (that is even shorter than writing "Lewis" ). That's a 36 point gap (math, math! ) with 9 races to go (COVID willing). It is not immediately clear if it is reasonably doable or perhaps very difficult. But if I say that it is equivalent to a 12 point gap with just one race to go, then our intuitive idea is clearer. Let's imagine we have one remaining race and Verstappen (I mean Max) is 12 points behind Lewis Hamilton (...), it looks rather bad for Marko's boy but it is feasible... as long as LH has a major incident (perhaps a puncture?).


So, I think we could agree is clearer to judge a 12 points gap with one race to go than a 36 points gap with 9 races to go. The 12 points gap would be the One Race Gap equivalent to the 36 points gap with 9 races to go.


Ok but, how the ORG is calculated? Sadly I cannot tell it because it is a copyrighted method of mine... LOL obviously this is a joke because the ORG is not going to make rich anybody and, above all, I described it last year in a thread, so I cannot hide it behind a copyright.


ORG is very simply computed dividing the actual gap by the square root of number of remaining races. So, Max's ORG is 36/sqrt(9) = 12. Is not it neat? (*_*)'



The following table contains the ORGs (ORG is ORG, not the initials of another very different dirty thing) for the main "contenders" (I should use here a ton of double quotes).


Code:
HAM  mer[88]
BOT  mer 30  10.0  10%
VER  rbr 36  12.0   8%
NOR  mcl 52  17.3   3%
LEC  fer 55  18.3   3%
ALB  rbr 62  20.7   2%
PER  poi 66  22.0   2%
STR  poi 68  22.7   1%
RIC  ren 68  22.7   1%
SAI  mcl 73  24.3   1%
First number is actual gap, second number is ORG, that is the equivalent gap with one race to go. Finally, third number is an estimation of the probability of overcoming that gap.


Nobody (except Hamilton himself... ) has "easy" this title. Think about Bottas having to get 10 points more than LH with just one race. Possible, yes, easy task, no.


Bottas and Verstappen (i.e. Max) are the only ones with a reasonable probability. The rest of them are in a dark and cold probabilistic purgatory (does really exist a cold purgatory??). And Vettel effectively is out, out of the title chase and out of Ferrari, of course.


I am happy to have been able to reach the end of this "long and winding" post, I thought I would never do it. If there is still someone reading this last part, please blink two times, so I can know... and check your brain with a professional. Probably you need to take hidroxicholoroquina as soon as possible.
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Old 4 Aug 2020, 14:38 (Ref:3992936)   #2
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It's an impressive effort in trying to inject some sort of hope that maybe there's still a title race. But realistically we all know that it's Hamiltons title already.
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Old 4 Aug 2020, 14:56 (Ref:3992943)   #3
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i would imagine that even if a couple of Middle East races were added to the end of the season, not much would change?

and what does 'poi' mean for the racing point drivers (no doubt something simple which i cant figure out lol).
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Old 4 Aug 2020, 15:10 (Ref:3992946)   #4
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and what does 'poi' mean for the racing point drivers (no doubt something simple which i cant figure out lol).
emphasis should help
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Old 4 Aug 2020, 15:11 (Ref:3992947)   #5
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haha...i knew i shouldnt have asked!
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Old 4 Aug 2020, 15:41 (Ref:3992959)   #6
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I appreciate the work, and it makes for some interesting reading.

One thing I am struggling with though, is how the 12 point ORG seems to give an impression that the title race is closer than the current 36 point.
It only takes a single retirement to make closing a 12 point gap relatively easy. Whereas a 36 point gap requires a consistent below-par result from Hamilton.

That said - please don't take it as a criticism, just an observation....
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Old 4 Aug 2020, 19:06 (Ref:3992992)   #7
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To be honest losing interest in this season very fast
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Old 5 Aug 2020, 00:17 (Ref:3993040)   #8
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To be honest losing interest in this season very fast
Me too, Lulu has screwed up the complete whitewash already this season and we will just have to come back next year to see if he can get it right.
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Old 5 Aug 2020, 01:03 (Ref:3993046)   #9
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Nice work.
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Originally Posted by Schummy View Post
Code:
HAM  mer[88]
BOT  mer 30  10.0  10%
VER  rbr 36  12.0   8%
NOR  mcl 52  17.3   3%
LEC  fer 55  18.3   3%
ALB  rbr 62  20.7   2%
PER  poi 66  22.0   2%
STR  poi 68  22.7   1%
RIC  ren 68  22.7   1%
SAI  mcl 73  24.3   1%
And the output feels reasonable.
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Old 6 Aug 2020, 12:32 (Ref:3993324)   #10
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Originally Posted by BertMk2 View Post
It's an impressive effort in trying to inject some sort of hope that maybe there's still a title race. But realistically we all know that it's Hamiltons title already.
Let's not despair yet! We are in this so-called NeoReality so, LH could do a Perez...


Or perhaps Mercedeses (!?) could begin to fail apart like in that movie The Great Race.
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Old 6 Aug 2020, 12:47 (Ref:3993329)   #11
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Originally Posted by crmalcolm View Post
I appreciate the work, and it makes for some interesting reading.

One thing I am struggling with though, is how the 12 point ORG seems to give an impression that the title race is closer than the current 36 point.
It only takes a single retirement to make closing a 12 point gap relatively easy. Whereas a 36 point gap requires a consistent below-par result from Hamilton.

That said - please don't take it as a criticism, just an observation....
A single retirement in ONE race is not very probable, how many times has Lewis retired from a race? But imagine a retirement among the 9 remaining races, it would not give MV the lead but it could get him a lot closer... with other 8 races (it doesn't matter if before or after that retirement) to try.

If fact, ORG calculation is due to the "variance property" regarding the sum of random quantities. Sometimes it looks counter-intuitive but it is real (with certain premises).

For example, a half of the determination of the final classification in a race is done in the first quarter of the race. So, with two short quarter races on Sunday we would have the same discriminatory power than with a whole race... but the two short races combined would use half of the laps of a normal race. Of course, the nature of the competition would be different, with more emphasis in short "sprints" than in middle endurance. Actually it would not be very different that the races with refueling and high performance tyres of some old seasons.
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Old 6 Aug 2020, 12:51 (Ref:3993330)   #12
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Nice work.

And the output feels reasonable.
Thanks. Yes, it shows a rather unexciting season , therefore it is realistic.
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Old 6 Aug 2020, 19:10 (Ref:3993399)   #13
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And it is only made worse by the winner crossing the line with a puncture - mainly because it was the same winner.
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