|
||||||||||
|
||||||||||
3 Jun 2011, 04:37 (Ref:2890338) | #1 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Towards the title 2011
Can we guess who are doing well in order to contend for the title or who are already missing the train of the title?
It can help to examine what happened in past (17) seasons (i.e. the post-Senna era). The following table shows average points for title winners and for "first of losers" (i.e. title runner-up) and equivalent average position for title winners and runner up. Code:
YEAR AV1 POS1 AV2 POS2 2010 13.47 3.5 13.26 3.6 2009 5.59 3.4 4.94 4.1 2008 5.44 3.6 5.39 3.6 2007 6.47 2.8 6.41 2.8 2006 7.44 2.3 6.72 2.6 2005 7.00 2.5 5.89 3.1 2004 8.22 1.9 6.33 2.8 2003 5.81 3.2 5.69 3.3 2002 8.47 1.4 4.53 2.7 2001 7.24 1.7 3.82 3.2 2000 6.35 1.9 5.24 2.4 1999 4.75 2.6 4.63 2.7 1998 6.25 1.9 5.38 2.3 1997 4.76 2.6 2.47 4.5 1996 6.06 2.0 4.88 2.6 1995 6.00 2.0 4.06 3.0 1994 5.75 2.1 5.69 2.2 AV2: average points of runner-up POS1: average position of WC POS2: average position of runner-up What all that mess of numbers means? There are some useful(?) guidelines:
Moreover, a "cut line" can be marked between those who "probably" wil get the title and those who "probably" will not get it. The better cutting point results to be an average position between 2nd and 3rd, concretely position 2.5 (currently 16.5 points). So, how all of that fit with the current classification table (after Monaco)? Code:
Vettel 143 Hamilton 85 Webber 79 Button 76 Alonso 69 Heidfeld 29 Title: >108 Contender: >72 Cut line: 99 The cut line of 99 means currently only Vettel is going to probably get the title. The rest of drivers need to get a better average even if Seb eventually fails. I. e., if SV fails, someone else has to get wins to increase his average above the cut line of 16.5 points per race to get a good probability for the title. At the end of the season those three numbers would be: To get the title safely: >342 points To be at least a contender: >228 points To "probably" get the title: >313 points |
||
|
3 Jun 2011, 07:23 (Ref:2890366) | #2 | ||
14th
1% Club
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 42,600
|
1998 and 2000 stick out for me - very low POS for 1st and 2nd.
Along with the relatively high POS for the last few years. |
||
__________________
Seriously not taking motorsport too seriously. |
3 Jun 2011, 07:35 (Ref:2890372) | #3 | |
Retired
20KPINAL
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 22,897
|
So, from the remaining 325 points available, Vettel needs to score just 170. Or just over half the points available to him, in order to "probably get the title" ?
Hamilton will need to score another 143 (spooky) points from from the remaining 13 races, just to be a contender. Or, to put it another way, he needs to score another 143 points just to mathematically still stand a chance of winning the title ? 170 points needed for Vettel to probably win the title and 143 points needed for his closest contender to mathematically remain in with a shout. No wonder Paddy Power are already paying out! |
|
|
3 Jun 2011, 12:26 (Ref:2890485) | #4 | ||||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Quote:
Quote:
If SV continues in this kind of form a few more races, he will become statistically unstoppable (i.e. the title will be his, barring major disasters). |
||||
|
3 Jun 2011, 12:28 (Ref:2890488) | #5 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Just the same table, adding World Champion and runner-up in each season.
Code:
YEAR AV1 POS1 AV2 POS2 WC RU 2010 13.47 3.5 13.26 3.6 SV FA 2009 5.59 3.4 4.94 4.1 JB SV 2008 5.44 3.6 5.39 3.6 LH FM 2007 6.47 2.8 6.41 2.8 KR LH 2006 7.44 2.3 6.72 2.6 FA MS 2005 7.00 2.5 5.89 3.1 FA KR 2004 8.22 1.9 6.33 2.8 MS RB 2003 5.81 3.2 5.69 3.3 MS KR 2002 8.47 1.4 4.53 2.7 MS RB 2001 7.24 1.7 3.82 3.2 MS DC 2000 6.35 1.9 5.24 2.4 MS MH 1999 4.75 2.6 4.63 2.7 MH EI 1998 6.25 1.9 5.38 2.3 MH MS 1997 4.76 2.6 2.47 4.5 JV HF 1996 6.06 2.0 4.88 2.6 DH JV 1995 6.00 2.0 4.06 3.0 MS DH 1994 5.75 2.1 5.69 2.2 MS DH |
||
|
3 Jun 2011, 15:15 (Ref:2890577) | #6 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
A graph showing the evolution of average points along the six first races.
The horizontal black lines signal the three main zones: "Sure title", "title contenders" and "Not title contenders". The dotted black horizontal line signals the level for a "probable title" (note as it is slightly below "sure title" and above "title contender"). The curved lines mean the averages for each main driver: blue = Red Bull, orange = Mac, red = Ferrari, black = Renault; dashed = team's 2nd driver. Title contenders (if Vettel goes to fall somehow in the future) are those 4 closely packed: Hamilton, Webber, Button, Alonso. This structure has been approx the same since the beginning of the season. Alonso, in fact is hanging below the contender line, Ferrari needs to climb in performance if Alonso wants to be a worthy contender, current average below 12 points is statistically not enough. |
||
|
3 Jun 2011, 19:46 (Ref:2890742) | #7 | |
Retired
20KPINAL
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 22,897
|
Some of the above stats have just been screwed up good and proper by the addition of another GP. What were the chances of that happening? Anyway, there's always the chance that it will get cancelled again.
|
|
|
6 Jun 2011, 17:33 (Ref:2892319) | #8 | |||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Quote:
Anyway, the impact on this system is null, as it is based on averages per races. The only "changes" would be getting total points multiplying averages by 13 or by 14. Even Nick Wirth could do it |
|||
|
13 Jun 2011, 15:10 (Ref:2898125) | #9 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Update after Canada.
Code:
Title: >126 Contender: >84 Cut line: 115.5 Vettel 161 "Safe" Title Button 101 Contender Webber 94 Contender Hamilton 85 Contender Alonso 69 Massa 32 Hamilton is now in the edge of that same "contender" zone. He needs to produce podiums to recover into it. On the other side, Button is "safe" as contender; problem is that while Vettel go on in "Safe Title" zone, "Contenders" is a meaningless concept. Vettel will "need" two zero-points GPs to go to the edge of "Safe Title", thus Seb is well safe by now and the rest of them are mere bystanders of the Championship. Very clearly this is a title that only Vettel can lose, nobody can win it from him. |
||
|
13 Jun 2011, 15:34 (Ref:2898144) | #10 | ||
Rookie
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 24
|
Too bad... it's a really good champ, the only thing it could be better would be 2 or 3 other drivers challenging it.
|
||
__________________
"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans ..." |
13 Jun 2011, 18:26 (Ref:2898281) | #11 | |
Race Official
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 9,004
|
Not if McLaren improve their car a bit. Vettel's had some excellent wins, but he's only just pulled those off (thanks in a large part to his own talent). The Red Bull is not as dominant as has sometimes appeared to be the case (look at Webber's performances), so McLaren aren't far off being able to really challenge Vettel every race, and he is capable of making an error at the critical time (see Canada).
|
|
|
13 Jun 2011, 19:59 (Ref:2898337) | #12 | |||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Quote:
If SV doesn't fail, the scenario is very difficult for JB. For example, let's suppose Mac makes a big step and JB can fight with SV on merit. Then he has to beat Seb 11-1 to get the title (counting 1st and 2nd positions). If we imagine Mac instructing Hamilton to let Button win and Lewis taking 2nd position (and Vettel 3rd), then Button still needs to beat Seb 9-3 to get the title. In short, if SV doesn't fail in a significant way, Button has to win a lot of races in the remaining 12 races. He needs to recover 60 points in 12 races (averaging 5 per race), even extending to 12 races his ultra-dominant 7 first races of 2009 with Brawn would not do it if Seb doesn't fail. All that changes if Vettel begins to lose podiums, particularly if he collects some zero points. |
|||
|
13 Jun 2011, 21:09 (Ref:2898389) | #13 | |
Race Official
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 9,004
|
||
|
13 Jun 2011, 22:05 (Ref:2898430) | #14 | |||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Quote:
But SV doesn't need going on with 1sts and 2nds, due to the amount of points he has massed, he just need an average of about 3rd positions in the remain of the season to get a total in the statistically "safe title" zone. For example, 50% of podiums will do it. Button in 2009 could not follow that requirement, after the first astounding 7 races, and then he got troubles with "his" title. I hope RBR finds problems (FIA magic power to make "convenient" rules mid season can help here ) . But I'm afraid RBR has more resources than Brawn had in 2009. As Lennon (our fellow user in 10th) said, the races are being great, but the championship is going to be undramatic at the moment. Ironically, it's the opposite of some years ago, when races were boring but the champioship was very exciting. BTW, if I had to choose, I would prefer the current situation to that other (exciting races > exciting WC). |
|||
|
13 Jun 2011, 23:14 (Ref:2898470) | #15 | |
Race Official
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 9,004
|
||
|
13 Jun 2011, 23:57 (Ref:2898481) | #16 | ||
Veteran
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 8,088
|
Quote:
Great stuff! Thanks for your work Schummi - also great stuff! Last edited by wnut; 14 Jun 2011 at 00:04. |
||
|
2 Jul 2011, 15:10 (Ref:2913937) | #17 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Let's see how drivers are going after Valencia respect this "bizarre" thing "Towards the title"
Current classification: SV 186 JB 109 MW 109 LH 97 FA 87 FM 42 Title safe: >144 Title contender: >96 Probable title "cut line": 132 So, Seb "fingerman" Vettel is well above the safe title limit (so far), thus is very obvious that he is towards the title like a rocket. To end the season with a sure title (i.e. about 100% of being Champion) he needs 156 points in 11 races, it means and average of 14.2 points; so, if he averages a result of 3rd position from now on, he will have virtually guaranteed the WC. The next level is the "probable title" (about 50% or more of being WC), it will be fulfilled if Seb gets 127.5 points in the next 11 races (average 11.6, 4th position); with that kind of future average he "probably" will be WC. IMO all this means SV still has to work towards the title. Those averages looks easy for his Red Bull, but if he does a "Button" he could theoretically have troubles to win the championship. In resume, the war is not over (but it is close). Button, Webber and Hamilton are in the (low part of the) contender zone, but it is an empty tag while Seb doesn't leave the "safe title zone". Alonso continues below the contender status, his 2nd in Valencia is not enough, he needs more consistency than that. Doing a "gap analysis", it can be seen that Button, Webber and Hamilton's task is not easy at all. The SV-JB gap is 77 points wide, with 11 races remaining, it is statistically equivalent to recover 23.2 points in one race; it is close to "unlikely", and at very least very difficult. I is going to required a acute downturn in RBR's form. Perhaps FIA can help... Hamilton's 89 gap is equivalent to 26.8 points in one race, i.e. it is very improbable. Alonso is already virtually out of the race (again, except that little help from Big Brother at Place de la Concorde ). In short, time is quickly becoming too short to mount a real challenge by the so-called contenders. Some more races with the current pattern and the likelihood of a non-Vettel WC will be virtually null. |
||
|
2 Jul 2011, 15:17 (Ref:2913941) | #18 | |||
Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 13,211
|
Quote:
What happens if Seb doesn't win another race and Fernando, Jenson, Mark and Lewis share the 11 race wins (virtually) equally between them? |
|||
__________________
That's so frickin uncool man! |
2 Jul 2011, 15:36 (Ref:2913951) | #19 | |||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
Quote:
The raw possibility of SV not being WC is theoretically open until nobody winning all the races and SV getting zero points is not enough. We are far from that but that kind of scenario is extremely unreal. Now, your scenario is more likely. Let's suppose FA, JB, MW and LH win in a balanced way the rest of the races, let's say JB, MW and LH win 3 races and FA 2 races. It means JB and MW will have 109+3*25+a*8 = 184+a*8 points, where a is the average score in the non winning races. Let's suppose a = 15 (what is pretty good), then JB (or MW) would have 304 points. So, SV will need 118 points in those 11 races, an average of 10.7 points (about 5th position) to get the title. Thus, Seb doesn't need any more wins to get the title, some podiums and some low scores will do it. It would be harder for him if those 11 races are not shared between the contenders in a balanced way but Jenson or another of them get more wins. |
|||
|
3 Jul 2011, 10:35 (Ref:2917258) | #20 | ||
Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 13,211
|
Righto
However, what's the likelihood of Vettel not winning another race? Lets be honest, it is looking pretty good for him! |
||
__________________
That's so frickin uncool man! |
3 Jul 2011, 11:03 (Ref:2917273) | #21 | ||
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 692
|
Quote:
|
||
__________________
Please, call me dye. |
3 Jul 2011, 11:29 (Ref:2917292) | #22 | |
Retired
20KPINAL
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 22,897
|
Unless Vettel DNFs for some reason, he's very unlikely to finish off the podium positions. And even if he didn't manage to do that at every race, one of the other protagonists has to 'step up to the plate' on a regular basis in order to make him feel even slightly worried.
It's a bit like 2009 in a way, only I don't think that anyone has close to anything like a double diffuser to put on their car that will allow them to catch Red Bull up. If Schummy were to do the stats for 'car most likely to win remaining races'..... |
|
|
3 Jul 2011, 14:56 (Ref:2917444) | #23 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
|||
|
10 Jul 2011, 20:04 (Ref:2924721) | #24 | ||
Subscriber
Veteran
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 3,259
|
A quick update after today's British GP.
VET 204 Safe title WEB 124 (Candidate) ALO 112 (Candidate) HAM 109 (Candidate) BUT 109 (Candidate) MAS 52 Limits: Safe title: >162 (18x) Candidate: >108 (12x) Probable title: 148.5 (16.5x) The only significant change is now Alonso has entered the low zone of the "candidate zone". However, as already said, "candidate" is a empty concept if "someone" is in the "safe title zone". "Candidate" only is in effect if Vettel exits that safe zone. By the way, Vettel continues exactly as formerly, with a 42 points margin into the "safe title zone", so is not better than before for the rest of the contenders. The gap analysis shows that now Webber is at an equivalent one-race gap of 25.5 points, i.e. is in the edge of unlikelihood. The rest are in worse situation: Alonso is at 29.1 points and Hamilton and Button are at 30.0 points. As number of races to go decreases, the candidates have to cut the gap or their task will be even harder. Except Alonso, in Silverstone Vettel has increased the gap (with one less race to go) respect his pursuers. Thus Vettel is as stronger a title contender as before. The only mild cloud in the parade is perhaps FIA's decisions can make Ferrari relatively faster and Alonso is a threat if you give him a tiny opportunity. If FIA doesn't interfere, data shows is very difficult that Vettel loses this title (please, note the conditional! ) |
||
|
12 Jul 2011, 07:19 (Ref:2925399) | #25 | ||
Veteran
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 1,216
|
Vettel can win the title by finishing 2nd in all the remaining races. So even if Ferrari built a rocket car and Alonso wins the 10 remaining races, he can't be world champion if Vettel finishes behind him.
Also, if Vettel wins 1 more race, then he can finish 3rd in the other 9 races and still win the title. |
||
|
|
|
Similar Threads | ||||
Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
[FIA GT Race] 2011 GT1 WC Round 1 • Yas Marinas • March 25/26 2011 | Yakuncha | Sportscar & GT Racing | 74 | 15 Apr 2011 19:45 |
[FIA GT Race] 2011 GT1 WC Round 2 • Zolder • April 9/10 2011 | Yakuncha | Sportscar & GT Racing | 83 | 13 Apr 2011 12:20 |
Round 2 - 2011 Moto GP 2011, Jerez | frostie | Bike Racing | 19 | 4 Apr 2011 15:08 |
Will Rahal fight for the title since 2011? | marcostraz | Indycar Series | 4 | 19 Dec 2010 21:33 |
could it be his best title yet? | paddywic | Formula One | 4 | 29 Sep 2003 17:03 |