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Old 10 Sep 2003, 08:23 (Ref:713866)   #1
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All THREE finishing all 3 races?

Just wondering what your opinions are on the chances are that all three drivers contending for the championship will finish the three remaining races and also in a high points scoring position!?

I believe atleast one of them is going to have a DNF... a case of one mistake and you are out!?
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 08:33 (Ref:713871)   #2
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Sato san should be qualifying in the top 10 on the gridSato san should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
yes , id be surprised if they all finished all the races ...but stranger things have happened ..

Really looking forward to this season finale !
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 09:01 (Ref:713900)   #3
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GO RALF

Actually, as I have posted elsewhere, there are other drivers who can have an influence on teh points scored by the three top guys. Like both Renault drivers, Mark Webber, and DC, Rubens and of course the MAN of the moment: Ralf.
A driver can only help his team mate if certain situations arise - if Rubens was running second and SchM was running fifth half a minute behind, there is not a helluva lot Rubens can do to help his team mate.

Last edited by Valve Bounce; 10 Sep 2003 at 09:06.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 09:13 (Ref:713907)   #4
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BootsOntheSide should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridBootsOntheSide should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridBootsOntheSide should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridBootsOntheSide should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Ralf the man of the moment? Are you insane? Two crashes and a spin in the last 6 weeks doesn't strike me as good form. The best run of recent form as been from Montoya, but of course Alonso has recived a lot of deserved hype aftere his Hungarian win.

Defiantely, a single mistake (from driver, manufacturer or raceday team) could blow the entire thing, and it has to be said that Michael's had the best luck with those. He's ahead, but his lead has been reduced at almost every race sicne Canada, and I doubt he'll be leading after Monza, unless the tyres change things.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 09:20 (Ref:713917)   #5
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GO RALF

Let's face it - Ralf's entire drive at Hungary was insane. But yeah!! I get that way from bouncing
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 09:24 (Ref:713920)   #6
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f1manoz should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridf1manoz should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridf1manoz should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
There is a strong possibility of all three drivers finishing, but I wouldn't put it past TGF to try some unsportsmanlike behaviour. He's done it before, constantly, he'll continue to do so....
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 10:08 (Ref:713937)   #7
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jonathanc should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Lets hope all three do finish, but somehow I doubt it.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 10:31 (Ref:713951)   #8
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Mattracer should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Of the three, Raikkonen is the most prone to a mistake under pressure, going on previous hsitory this season. JPM is the most likely to do something spectacular and get away with it and TGF will most likely score consistently and stay out of trouble.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 11:22 (Ref:713996)   #9
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This year. Points scoring finishes
Michael 12/13
Montoya 10/13
Kimi 10/13

Using this, roughly, Michael has a 23% chance and Montoya and Kimi have a 69% chance of not finishing at least one race.

There could well be 1 or 2 retirements out of these three in the last few races.

There is a 7% chance that all of them will score in every race.

There is a 10% chance that all will suffer a non scoring finish (to allow Ralf back in). However Ralf (11/13) has a 30% chance of not scoring in one round too. So there is a 7% chance that each of the top three fails to score in a round and Ralf scores in each round.

The chances of DC scoring in each round and none of the top three scoring in any rounds are about 2 millionth of a %.

Last edited by Adam43; 10 Sep 2003 at 11:27.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 11:25 (Ref:713999)   #10
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jetsetter should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
The key to the remaining races is going to be qualifying, you don't want to start too many places behind the other contenders. A mistake on one of the qualifying laps could be the difference between being world champion & finishing third.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 11:47 (Ref:714007)   #11
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What is Monza like for overtaking opportunities?
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 11:48 (Ref:714010)   #12
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ASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
So so, not very spectacular.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 11:58 (Ref:714014)   #13
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shiny side up! should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Well, at least 2 prime overtaking areas, and another 2-3 where it is possible... should be a good race.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 12:02 (Ref:714015)   #14
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ASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the gridASCII Man should be qualifying in the top 3 on the grid
Haven't seen much overtaking last year, must be because i was sleeping or something...
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 12:14 (Ref:714028)   #15
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Mark Webber has a lot of promise if they can keep it on the circuit!
I think Ralf is the in the box seat and could take alot of points in the coming race's MS,Kimmi,jpm will be falling over themself's to out place each other without winning if needed which could really opening doors for the likes of DC who has had strong race's pretty much all year (but bad quail's) Alonso is coming home strong and usa and japan could lead to wins and Mark could all so take much needed points away from the three wise men (except Monza ).
but the Tyre issue is I think long from over and will be a huge factor .
But I can see all drivers (MS Kimmi,jpm) finishing the race's with Monza being the possibly car breaker it always has been . What a end to the season
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 13:30 (Ref:714088)   #16
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Phoenix1 should be qualifying in the top 10 on the grid
Car wise if we are talking relibality then TGF is out and if Montoya can keep facing in the right direction with his Williams and a good pair of Michelins, as they still seem to be, then it is his with KR second. (Michelins faster... http://www.planet-f1.com/Home/story_12918.shtml )

Last edited by Phoenix1; 10 Sep 2003 at 13:32.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 13:36 (Ref:714094)   #17
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Car wise if we are talking relibality then TGF is out
Do you mean that because of reliabilty issues mean that Michael doesn't have a chance?

He has more points finishes than the other contenders so far this year. And when was the last time he broke down? That means he and is car seem more reliable and less likely to fail to score.

Possibly on shear pace he is not at the top at the moment, but reliabilty wise his car is the one to have.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 13:56 (Ref:714112)   #18
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well, reading the article that Phoenix1 pointed us to, it doesn't seem all doom and gloom for the Michelin boys....

"I have to say a big thank-you to the FIA," announced Toyota’s Olivier Panis. "Michelin had to do what it had to do [in ensuring conformity] and it has worked out so well for us as [in testing] we were quicker on the new construction."

It was a view shared by Renault’s Technical Director Mike Gascoyne. "In testing the new-shaped tyre we actually noticed a small performance advantage over its predecessor," he said.


Loved this bit.....

P-F1 (planet-F1) may have scoffed when Ross Brawn claimed that Ferrari had Michelin’s best interests in mind when they complained to the FIA, but we now realise we were wrong to do so. Sorry Ross.

When exactly did Ross Brawn have Michelins best interests in mind?
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 14:04 (Ref:714116)   #19
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When exactly did Ross Brawn have Michelins best interests in mind?
When they started to beat bridgestone...
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 14:27 (Ref:714132)   #20
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Do you mean that because of reliabilty issues mean that Michael doesn't have a chance?

He has more points finishes than the other contenders so far this year. And when was the last time he broke down? That means he and is car seem more reliable and less likely to fail to score.

Possibly on shear pace he is not at the top at the moment, but reliabilty wise his car is the one to have.
I agree that Michael has had more points paying positions but if you cut the season in half then he would be way down the field, his last point(s) paying position was one point. The first half of the season was a Ferrari era but the second half is a Williams/McLaren time. It will be tight but I feel JPM wants this more than anyone else.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 14:29 (Ref:714133)   #21
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When exactly did Ross Brawn have Michelins best interests in mind?
Ross clearly realised Michelin would go fast at Italy with a different tire as they seem to think they will be doing. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot if this is right he dropped the whole cannon.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 14:38 (Ref:714145)   #22
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Originally posted by Phoenix1
I agree that Michael has had more points paying positions but if you cut the season in half then he would be way down the field, his last point(s) paying position was one point. The first half of the season was a Ferrari era but the second half is a Williams/McLaren time.
I totally agree with that.

It is Ferrari's pace that is the issue at the moment, not the reliability.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 16:48 (Ref:714282)   #23
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Glen should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridGlen should be qualifying in the top 5 on the gridGlen should be qualifying in the top 5 on the grid
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Originally posted by Phoenix1
I agree that Michael has had more points paying positions but if you cut the season in half then he would be way down the field, his last point(s) paying position was one point. The first half of the season was a Ferrari era but the second half is a Williams/McLaren time. It will be tight but I feel JPM wants this more than anyone else.
Clearly the first four races of the season haved faded from memory! Anything but a Ferrari era.

Three races (faded from my memory too!).

Last edited by Glen; 10 Sep 2003 at 16:50.
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 16:52 (Ref:714292)   #24
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Haven't seen much overtaking last year, must be because i was sleeping or something...
You may be right, I didn't get to see the race at Monza last year... I guess just because there are overtaking opportunities doesn't guarantee any actual passing!
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Old 10 Sep 2003, 17:47 (Ref:714384)   #25
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In recent years, I've been surprised by the lack of overtaking at Monza. It has long straights into slow corners so you'd think it would be good. However a couple of things work against it. Most of the long straights are just after fast corners, so the following cars have just lost out due to the 'dirty' air. Also I'm not sure the design of the chicances helps that much either.
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