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Old 5 Mar 2019, 14:44 (Ref:3888418)   #226
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Interesting to see that Ferari are to drop the Mission Winnow branding from the car, I wonder how long McLaren will be able to cling on to their BAT branding?



https://www.grandprix.com/news/ferra...-branding.html
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Old 5 Mar 2019, 14:51 (Ref:3888420)   #227
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Interesting to see that Ferari are to drop the Mission Winnow branding from the car, I wonder how long McLaren will be able to cling on to their BAT branding?



https://www.grandprix.com/news/ferra...-branding.html
It didn't do anything visually.
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Old 5 Mar 2019, 15:26 (Ref:3888424)   #228
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frankly im surprised they got away with as long as they did...but they got their publicity shots which they will no doubt continue to run in markets still open to cig advertising.

anyways im off to the Ferrari store to buy some illegal but highly collectible and soon to be rare team merch!
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Old 6 Mar 2019, 02:39 (Ref:3888540)   #229
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I read that as being for Australia only.
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Old 6 Mar 2019, 05:56 (Ref:3888551)   #230
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I wonder how long McLaren will be able to cling on to their BAT branding?
I dont think even the BATmobile could help them this season....Na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na, na,
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Old 6 Mar 2019, 07:46 (Ref:3888565)   #231
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I read that as being for Australia only.
I believe Ferrari are still deliberating on that. McLaren are probably more at threat as the new BAT sponsorship is around promoting smoking 'alternatives ', including tobacco heating products, which are allegedly under scrutiny in some countries.

The FIA should have banned smoking and any derivatives of or alternatives to, to make it clearer.


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Old 7 Mar 2019, 18:17 (Ref:3888952)   #232
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What I disagree with is that given the extreme level of competition you have teams implementing complex aero solutions and some teams continue to get it right and others get it wrong. I think that a majority of those who "get it right" likely broadly understand "why" it works and can reproduce the effects year in and out (not that it doesn't take work to do so). The rest, may "think" they know why specific concepts work, but in reality can't fully replicate the promise on the track. Or it works one year, but not the next and they are clueless as to why that happened.
So, Richard, do you mean that teams end up quite close on times due to going down the right alley with the regulations to a much closer degree than previously, but some don't have the expertise to understand why it worked and then develop the car or develop next year's car?

As I understand, you agree that they start with a fairly good baseline on their own car and are quite close to its potential already, but they may not be able to easily adapt new concepts or at least easily understand them (imagine Mercedes with all their knowledge and probably excellent computer programs - for all of that, they have said a redesign of the front wing to match Ferrari's approach would involve a lot of fundamental redesigning of other parts of the car that would have a lead time of several months.
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Old 7 Mar 2019, 19:59 (Ref:3888972)   #233
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So, Richard, do you mean that teams end up quite close on times due to going down the right alley with the regulations to a much closer degree than previously, but some don't have the expertise to understand why it worked and then develop the car or develop next year's car?

As I understand, you agree that they start with a fairly good baseline on their own car and are quite close to its potential already, but they may not be able to easily adapt new concepts or at least easily understand them (imagine Mercedes with all their knowledge and probably excellent computer programs - for all of that, they have said a redesign of the front wing to match Ferrari's approach would involve a lot of fundamental redesigning of other parts of the car that would have a lead time of several months.
I had to go back and re-read my older post to refresh my memory regarding the context of the conversation at that point.

I would say most of my comment was in response with this small bit of your post...

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it got me thinking that such is the level of CFD and CAD these days that teams arrive at pre-season testing closer to perfection than ever.
My thought is that the super high level view is that yes, teams continue to get closer and closer to perfection than ever before. But my argument here is that building an F1 car to the current rulesets is more science than art. Decades ago, what was "secret sauce" for a winning team is common knowledge today. What makes this work is that (plus or minus), the rules define the car in a relatively tight box that hasn't changed in years if not decades (mechanical suspension, basic aero limitations due to spec floor, etc.) For that reason I think you can say that in general the entire field (front to rear) has been compressed into a smaller range of performance.

But in the end, there remains someone who is consistent at the front and someone who is consistently at the rear. Regardless of how someone gets to the front (throwing money at the solution, natural inspiration, a combo of both), those at the front not only "have" a new secret sauce, but they also understand much better "why" it works. So they are both (1) able to expand the range of scenarios in which it works (2) better to utilize it when regulations are re-written (usually in an attempt to change the characteristics of how the cars work).

Here is maybe a bad example of what I am trying to say regarding trying to replicate known good solution, but without having understanding...

The US developed and used the B-29 bomber toward the end of WW2. It was the most sophisticated and modern design at that moment. The Soviet Union reverse engineered an example that made an emergency landing in Soviet territory. The resulting Tu-4 copy was pretty much as identical as the Soviets could make it. Both the B-29 and the Tu-4 were excellent bombers.

I have no doubt that while the Soviets learned quite a bit during the process of reverse engineering, the American's would have had all of the research data (what worked, what didn't work) that lead up to the design of the B-29 and would have had a much better understanding of "why" it worked. So when it's replacement was to be created, the Americans would have been in a better position from a knowledge perspective.

Back to F1...

Given the cars are viewable it is hard to hide aero details. Everyone is reverse engineering the other guys solutions. Some may copy the solution very well, get great performance, but not be able to replicate it again on a slightly different scenario (i.e. next years car, or this years car with mid season aero tweaks). Or they may replicate it and even convince themselves that they do understand how it works (CFD analysis all looks good!), but then it doesn't perform as expected on track. Some detail (knowledge) remains hidden from them.

In the end, I suspect that understanding what the new "secret sauce" that exists today is not binary. There is a spectrum of understanding. So teams like Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull likely understand "why" the cars work or don't well enough that they can come out of the gates with new designs with a much lower level of risk that the basic design will be a lemon. I think some other teams like Racing Point might be in that same category, but are held back by other things (funding, etc.)

I think teams such as Williams might very well be in the dark. Trying a mixture of replicating other teams solutions, trying their own unique solutions and as it seems, in the end finding that none of it really works. They are knowledgeable and can make a fast car, but it pales in comparison to their competition. Whatever details that allows the others to stand out is hidden from them. F1 today is about fighting for those last fractions of percent in optimizations.

Lastly, the entirety of the knowledge required to make a top notch F1 car is so immense that it no longer can be driven by a single "genius". I expect most who work on the design are very much domain experts in their given area. So for this reason alone, I am doubtful of a single player moving to a team and turning things around. The one exception to that is if the problem is management. One person who is both empowered and has the resources to make change can have a large impact.

Sorry for the long winded explanation of my thoughts. I hope that answers your question.

Richard

Last edited by Richard C; 7 Mar 2019 at 20:05.
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Old 8 Mar 2019, 14:27 (Ref:3889166)   #234
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for sure its all guess work...thats the whole point!

people like to speculate about sports particularly during a pre season when we sit in anticipation of what will come next. im not really sure whats new or unusual about this.

anyways, i like to talk about sports. for me its fun. to each their own of course.



Perez and Bottas with positive things to say. DanRic less sure.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/i...perez/4345373/

cautiously optimistic sounds about right to me.
Yes I sort of get the speculation but but having stood on a pit wall and been to I don't know how many test days speculation is not something I do and never will. if someone asked me how fast we were going I used to tell them a time way faster than we could ever do and they actually used to believe me. The opposite of sand bagging which seems to be a trendy word these days. I guess I am just getting old and cynical so I will just sit in my chair, dribble at the mouth and see what happens at Melbourne.
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Old 8 Mar 2019, 15:54 (Ref:3889180)   #235
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I guess I am just getting old and cynical so I will just sit in my chair, dribble at the mouth and see what happens at Melbourne.
well im getting older and angrier so i think you have me beat there! and come Melbourne i will be sitting in my chair, yelling and waving things at my TV!

that or falling asleep....as you say, we wont really know how good the season will be until after the lights go out!
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Old 9 Mar 2019, 06:18 (Ref:3889285)   #236
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I have no doubt that while the Soviets learned quite a bit during the process of reverse engineering, the American's would have had all of the research data (what worked, what didn't work) that lead up to the design of the B-29 and would have had a much better understanding of "why" it worked. So when it's replacement was to be created, the Americans would have been in a better position from a knowledge perspective.

Back to F1...

Given the cars are viewable it is hard to hide aero details. Everyone is reverse engineering the other guys solutions. Some may copy the solution very well, get great performance, but not be able to replicate it again on a slightly different scenario (i.e. next years car, or this years car with mid season aero tweaks). Or they may replicate it and even convince themselves that they do understand how it works (CFD analysis all looks good!), but then it doesn't perform as expected on track. Some detail (knowledge) remains hidden from them.
Fascinating stuff, Richard. Yes, I can see that if there is an apparent must-have feature, such as a mass damper or a double diffuser (some releatively recent examples that spring to mind), many copy, but that doesn't mean the performance will carry through into next year's design or even this year's, because if they also lack detailed understanding of how it works in harmony with the rest of the design, it may not have the performance benefit of those teams that have been successful witrh it.

In a way, the traditionalist in me finds it great that sometimes, to quote you here in the first instance, 'CFD analysis all looks good!', and then 'it didn't have the results we expected on the track'. It's as though computing power will only get you so far and many other minds will help. Which brings me to..

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Lastly, the entirety of the knowledge required to make a top notch F1 car is so immense that it no longer can be driven by a single "genius". I expect most who work on the design are very much domain experts in their given area. So for this reason alone, I am doubtful of a single player moving to a team and turning things around. The one exception to that is if the problem is management. One person who is both empowered and has the resources to make change can have a large impact.
This is a difference from the days of a Colin Chapman, a Gordon Murray or even an Adrian Newey (I say 'even', because I hypothesise if aerodynamics still a sufficiently mysterious process that a great aerodynamicist can make the difference?) in that you have this amalgamation of so many talents and it makes it difficult for us to identify the biggest architects of that success. In this way, one of the many Mercedes world champions of last year was a little-known guy at a laptop back at base in Brackley.

The management issue is one reason I am in two minds about Williams and whether Paddy Lowe is/was the issue or if Williams have been lacking this sauce for many years now and have been going round and round without much of a clue.

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Perez and Bottas with positive things to say. DanRic less sure.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/i...perez/4345373/

cautiously optimistic sounds about right to me.
I had a dream last night that there were many passes in the Spanish Grand Prix, including one for the lead, so here's hoping.
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Old 11 Mar 2019, 13:07 (Ref:3889641)   #237
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I believe Ferrari are still deliberating on that. McLaren are probably more at threat as the new BAT sponsorship is around promoting smoking 'alternatives ', including tobacco heating products, which are allegedly under scrutiny in some countries.

The FIA should have banned smoking and any derivatives of or alternatives to, to make it clearer.


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Old 11 Mar 2019, 13:45 (Ref:3889652)   #238
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This is a difference from the days of a Colin Chapman, a Gordon Murray or even an Adrian Newey (I say 'even', because I hypothesise if aerodynamics still a sufficiently mysterious process that a great aerodynamicist can make the difference?) in that you have this amalgamation of so many talents and it makes it difficult for us to identify the biggest architects of that success. In this way, one of the many Mercedes world champions of last year was a little-known guy at a laptop back at base in Brackley.
Even as I finished my post saying that the only place a single individual can have large impact is in management I felt I should have also included aero. I think for two reasons... (1) Aero is still a huge deciding factor (2) while we know a great deal, there is still room for a single aero genius to make a large impact. This is totally inline with your comment above which is why I agree with it.

But, I suspect that in 20-40 years, the sport will have progressed to the point that even aero will be more akin to commodity engineering than art. And that innovation will be incremental, a team effort and not driven via Newey style geniuses. We are probably close to the inflection point even today. Newey may be the last of his breed.

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Old 11 Mar 2019, 14:50 (Ref:3889664)   #239
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But, I suspect that in 20-40 years, the sport will have progressed to the point that even aero will be more akin to commodity engineering than art. And that innovation will be incremental, a team effort and not driven via Newey style geniuses. We are probably close to the inflection point even today. Newey may be the last of his breed.
If the regulations were opened up, perhaps we could have many more highly-influential individuals.

Also, how are we defining 'art' here? 'Mysterious and creative ideas'?
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Old 11 Mar 2019, 15:44 (Ref:3889677)   #240
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If the regulations were opened up, perhaps we could have many more highly-influential individuals.

Also, how are we defining 'art' here? 'Mysterious and creative ideas'?
In this context, I am defining "art" as a combination of factors (all factors do not have to apply)...

* The technology is emergent or still not fully understood within the domain.
* Mathematical modeling of behavior is computationally expensive (i.e. not within the reach of those doing the analysis).
* Innovation continues to be driven by intuitive insight vs. pure theory or understanding.

Actually the last item is more the effect than the cause.

So take suspension dynamics as an example. I expect that is so well understood today and relatively simple, that it can be fully modeled and calculated via brute force for not much money. Not that there is not room for innovation, but "how" it works is pretty well known. So I would not say it is "art" for the professionals.

Aero on the other hand, while the formulas are known, it is still difficult. Static conditions can likely be relatively easily modeled (car running in straight line in clean air). But to model dynamic behavior (how do the air flow as the car turns in as the car rides the curbs, impact of the car moving in multiple axis in relation to the track, etc.) are harder as the number of variables goes up. It's becomes difficult to take all of those variables into account. Static analysis has fewer variables, so it's easier to perform. This leaves room for that magical intuitive insights that can occur within the human brain and define genius. This makes up for the fact that teams can't model everything due to restrictions of either funding or the rules (such as CFD and tunnel limits). Given enough time and money the cars could be accurately modeled via CFD as the fluid dynamic equations are understood.

Another example of this is simulation of the combustion process. It's my understanding that it is very complex. Such as optimizing the design of the fuel as they have to understand exactly how chemical reactions are working in highly dynamic situations. Modeling what is going on at nearly atomic levels and with small time scales. Very lean burning engines that utilize all types of tricks to extract as much power from a given amount of fuel as used in F1 fits this bill.

A good example of this outside of the motorsports world would have been nuclear arms. For emergent powers such as North Korea, they likely are still relying upon intuitive (but informed and sometimes stolen) logic on how to move forward. So they require testing to ensure things still work as expected (just like F1 teams need to test to ensure things work as expect). But the US likely decided it was OK to stop physical testing once they were in the position to test reliably in a virtual way. This is done via large scale super computers they are able to accurately fully simulate weapon designs. China, Russia and other first world powers are likely in the same position. Those same resources applied to F1 would likely create superior aero solutions for all expected dynamic conditions. But at large cost.

Another example was radar cross section calculations for aircraft. The initial US stealth fighter (F117) was very angular because that was the best they could do with respect to computer modeling at that time. Newer aircraft such as the B2, F22, F35 have smoother surfaces because the increase in computational power allows for more granular modeling of how radar interacts with the body of the aircraft. So the F117 was probably the inflection point of radar cross sectional modeling.

Richard

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Old 12 Mar 2019, 17:11 (Ref:3889935)   #241
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Ferrari have altered their livery, prior to Melbourne. I think it looks a lot better without that Mission Winnow logo, stuck on all the available space.

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Old 12 Mar 2019, 20:45 (Ref:3889982)   #242
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Old 12 Mar 2019, 21:01 (Ref:3889999)   #243
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i have to say i really really like the matte red they are using this year!
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Old 13 Mar 2019, 00:07 (Ref:3890024)   #244
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Old 13 Mar 2019, 00:17 (Ref:3890025)   #245
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Old 13 Mar 2019, 19:32 (Ref:3890208)   #246
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Static analysis has fewer variables, so it's easier to perform. This leaves room for that magical intuitive insights that can occur within the human brain and define genius. This makes up for the fact that teams can't model everything due to restrictions of either funding or the rules (such as CFD and tunnel limits). Given enough time and money the cars could be accurately modeled via CFD as the fluid dynamic equations are understood.
I wonder whether banning so much testing actually sped up the accuracy of F1 teams' CFD, but perhaps they would have caught up by now and even had better CFD due to a constant corrobation and feedback loop of CFD - testing - CFD - testing.
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Old 13 Mar 2019, 21:54 (Ref:3890237)   #247
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I wonder whether banning so much testing actually sped up the accuracy of F1 teams' CFD, but perhaps they would have caught up by now and even had better CFD due to a constant corrobation and feedback loop of CFD - testing - CFD - testing.
In short yes. But since I am unable to keep it to the short answer...



I expect with the heavy restrictions of on track testing, that it has improved the CFD capabilities of teams as they had really no other options than to improve that skill. I have no doubt that over the past handful of years those doing CFD continue to get better at it. I think they recently increased the quantity (regulation change) of CFD compute capabilities, so that should help even the lowly teams.

Overall, I think if they allowed more on track testing, it would increase the bandwidth of that feedback loop, or better yet allow for more iterative loops. You see teams today running all types of systems to measure aero during testing and potentially even during free practice at races.

On the surface, you would think they are testing new parts to see if they perform as expected. Quantitative measure such as reduced lap time or downforce levels. And they do. They always have the clock to look at lap time performance or load cells to measure downforce.

But I suspect a great deal is to see how close reality is to the CFD predictions. Is the Flow-Vis paint showing the air moving as predicted. The aero rake structures are measuring a sampled grid of pressures in a specific plane (such as just before or after an aero device) to see if the air is moving as predicted. Basically compare the data points to what the computer says it "thinks" it should be.

The more iterations you can do, the more you can refine whatever is going on with your model. Right now they are limited as to how many iterative loops they can do. So during the season they end up bringing stuff to the track in which their level of confidence may not be great. Bolt it on and cross your fingers. That is why you see ideas tried in free practice that never gets raced. Or one car running new aero and the other not. Or sometimes even large updates that are reworked after a failed weekend.

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Old 14 Mar 2019, 01:18 (Ref:3890278)   #248
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Originally Posted by Richard Casto
But I suspect a great deal is to see how close reality is to the CFD predictions. Is the Flow-Vis paint showing the air moving as predicted. The aero rake structures are measuring a sampled grid of pressures in a specific plane (such as just before or after an aero device) to see if the air is moving as predicted. Basically compare the data points to what the computer says it "thinks" it should be.
I am pretty sure this is the driving force. I am sure it is a big part of why Mercedes did their week 1 to week 2 approach. Get a baseline to check the calibration as it were, then week 2 you can get a better handle of what really worked and didn't so much with the updates.

Obviously I know nothin' so this is essentially baseless speculation, but it makes sense to me.
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Old 16 Mar 2019, 11:11 (Ref:3890970)   #249
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MB understand one thing and that is what practise is for and that is not setting the fastest time but learning how to set the fastest time come the first race day.
I think I got that right on reflection.
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