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Old 4 Jun 2019, 16:58 (Ref:3907921)   #1
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(Some) team mates comparison F1 2019

By now I am centering this stat in the teams I see more interesting/intriguing.
However, in the future I could see other teams... or discard some of these!

The comparison table has two digits per GP and team. First digit is qualification result (grid position, without "penalties"), second digit is race classification. Digit 1 means the First Driver did better than the Second Driver,digit 0 is... the opposite . In principle First Driver is the "main" driver in the team or at least the "best" driver, but this can be debatable in some cases.

TOT is the total score in the team, QUA is the score in qualifications and RAC is the score in races. The percentage means the likelihood of the leading driver is actually "really" better (a sort of statistical confidence indicator). The leading driver'name (the driver with better score) appears beside the percentage.

For example, the table shows that Hamilton had a better qualy but Bottas had better race result. Lewis dominates Bottas with a 7-5 score, but it only throws a level of "confidence" of 23% and it is briefly described as "Balanced". When the score is statistically significant it is described as "BUSTED".
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO    TOT  QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 =  7-5  3-3  4-2  HAM 23% Balanced
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 = 10-2  5-1  5-1  VET 96% Almost BUSTED!
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 =  9-3  4-2  5-1  MAG 85% Advantage
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 =  8-4  5-1  3-3  RIC 61% Advantage
Ironically, one of the more brilliant drivers of this season, Leclerc, is being well-beaten by Vettel, who, IMO, is not producing his best performances. Perhaps Leclerc is showing a lack of experience at maximum level... and a share of bad luck (?).

Magnussen and Ricciardo are leading the way in their respective teams, but still not above the random noise (i.e. it is not significant).

Perhaps noteworthy is the 3-3 score in qualifications between LH and VB, being Hamilton excellent in qualy laps and having Lewis a very solid season. Maybe it is an indication that Valteri Bottas is going to be a strong title contender, but it is still too early to say.
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Old 4 Jun 2019, 17:37 (Ref:3907928)   #2
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I think Leclerc is just keeping Vettel on his toes and yes the bad luck has played a factor
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Old 4 Jun 2019, 23:01 (Ref:3907964)   #3
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For me, Leclerc is being one of my favorite drivers this season but maybe I am becoming a fanboy of him .

Leclerc maintains Vettel in check and the statistics maintain Leclerc in check too.
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Old 5 Jun 2019, 17:09 (Ref:3908101)   #4
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Leclerc has the raw speed but makes mistakes and had some bad luck.
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Old 5 Jun 2019, 17:13 (Ref:3908104)   #5
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He’s made a few mistakes, but then these are understandable, as he is still learning the limit. If he’s still making them like Vettel does after multiple titles that’s different
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Old 9 Jun 2019, 00:47 (Ref:3908690)   #6
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The Vettel Leclerc comparison is what you would ideally expect from a very fast young driver challenging a good team mate, the youngster with flashes of brilliance being overcome with the consistency of the experienced driver.
Still quite shocking just how dominant Seb has been statistically here.
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Old 9 Jun 2019, 09:12 (Ref:3908753)   #7
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The Vettel Leclerc comparison is what you would ideally expect from a very fast young driver challenging a good team mate, the youngster with flashes of brilliance being overcome with the consistency of the experienced driver.
Still quite shocking just how dominant Seb has been statistically here.
Just goes to show stats aren't always reflective of reality. If he won Bahrain and not shunted in Baku these stats would look very different?

Although Montreal is the first time this year that Seb has truly trounced Charles in qualy.
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Old 12 Jun 2019, 02:15 (Ref:3909472)   #8
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Update after Canada:
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA   TOT  QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 =  9-5  4-3  5-2  HAM 58%   Balanced
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 = 12-2  6-1  6-1  VET 98.7% BUSTED!
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 = 10-4  5-2  5-2  MAG 80%   Advantage
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 = 10-4  6-1  4-3  RIC 80%   Advantage
[Note: Magnussen "wins" Canada's qualifying because he had better qualy time]
Grosjean and Hulk will be almost busted if they "lose" the next two GPs.
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Old 12 Jun 2019, 02:28 (Ref:3909475)   #9
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BTW, that data show an almost statistically significant trend of Ricciardo beating Hulkenberg more and more easily. The other pairs don't show any mathematically significant trend by now, just a pattern compatible with randomness.
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Old 12 Jun 2019, 17:37 (Ref:3909589)   #10
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Schummy, is Kubica busted now?

Interesting about Hulkenberg and Ricciardo. I had imagined that one to be more evenly-matched so far.
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Old 13 Jun 2019, 02:48 (Ref:3909727)   #11
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I am afraid Kubica is busted, yes, but I have not wanted to include it in the table because sadly it was not much of a surprise :-{ ... Anyway life and F1 have to go on...
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Old 25 Jun 2019, 07:04 (Ref:3914060)   #12
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Updating after GP France.
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR    TOT  QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 = 11-5  5-3  6-2  HAM 79%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 = 12-4  6-2  6-2  VET 92%   Nearly busted
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 = 12-4  6-2  6-2  MAG 92%   Nearly busted
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 = 11-5  7-1  4-4  RIC 79%   Advantage
(RIC-HUL 93% in qualifycation)
Leclerc has recovered a bit, from "Busted" to "Nearly Busted", after a rather disappointing weekend for Vettel.
Magnussen is nearer to bust Grosjean, they are now at Vettel-Leclerc level.
Ricciardo "beated" Hulk in race but I followed the official classification after the penalization (which I don't always do) giving the "win" to Nico. It truncated a bit the momentum of RIC against this team mate. However, in qualifying Ricciardo is "nearly busting" Hulkenberg (7-1).

At the moment all of these teams are tilted towards the "main" driver, getting close to the "busted" status.
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Old 25 Jun 2019, 10:43 (Ref:3914091)   #13
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As I said before, the Ferrari situation is much less obvious than the statistics you provide!
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Old 25 Jun 2019, 13:27 (Ref:3914124)   #14
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Sadly I only post data here in this modest thread.



For interpretations of reality, there are plenty of richer threads out there!



:-)
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Old 25 Jun 2019, 22:04 (Ref:3914200)   #15
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Sadly I only post data here in this modest thread.



For interpretations of reality, there are plenty of richer threads out there!



:-)
👍😉
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Old 4 Jul 2019, 13:38 (Ref:3915861)   #16
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(I have to say I am a sort of fan of Charles Leclerc... but the "d@amn" data get me down! )


Team mates comparison after miniZeltweg, aka Red Bull Ring:
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU   TOT  QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 = 11-7  5-4  6-3  HAM 52%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 = 12-6  6-3  6-3  VET 76%   Advantage
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 = 13-5  7-2  6-3  MAG 90%   Nearly busted
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 = 12-6  7-2  5-4  RIC 76%   Advantage
Austria has been a bit like The Revenge of the Minnows ;-) . Bottras and Leclerc have beaten their "seniors" and Grosjean and Hulk have braked the fall. Now only Grasjean is Almost Busted (and not for much).

In particular, HAM-BOT is looking pretty much random-ish, in numerical terms. I mean if if throw a coin 18 times, it is relatively easy to get 11 times one or other side of the coin. Thus, the results of them could have been generated by two identical drivers.
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Old 2 Aug 2019, 05:18 (Ref:3920765)   #17
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Updating after GP Germany:
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE    TOT  QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 = 14-8  6-5  8-3  HAM 71%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 = 13-9  6-5  7-4  VET 48%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 = 13-9  7-4  6-5  MAG 48%   Equality
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 = 14-8  8-3  6-5  RIC 71%   Advantage
In the last two races has had some significant developments.

1) Gorsjean has beaten Magnussen 4-0, bringing the situation to "equality", i.e. the drivers are probably similar in performance, with differences mainly due to randomness. Still, Magnussen has the edge, so he can change the situation to his side more easily.
2) Leclerc won 3-1 against Vettel (and it is now 7-1 in the last four GPs!!). Now the position is "equality" as well... when Seb had Leclerc "busted" formerly!
3) Hamilton won 3-1 versus Botas making it "advantage" now. it means data shows Lewis is doing better than Valteri but it is not still enough to be statistically proven.
4) Hulk has slowed down the fall against Ricciardo tying 2-2 in the last two races. Anyway, the Australian still has "advantage" on his side.
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Old 3 Aug 2019, 00:12 (Ref:3920894)   #18
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Thanks Schumi.

Interesting to see how Leclerc has clawed his way back from oblivion.

Small query, how can Vettel and Magnussen have the same percentage in the table?
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Old 3 Aug 2019, 06:28 (Ref:3920922)   #19
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Thanks Schumi.


Small query, how can Vettel and Magnussen have the same percentage in the table?
I read it as both KMag and Vettel lead their teamates overall by 13-9 (despite their qualy/race mix results being different).
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Old 3 Aug 2019, 08:25 (Ref:3920932)   #20
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Yeah, as E.B. says, Vettel and Magnussen score the same percentage against their team mates in slightly different ways. MAG is a bit more dominant in qualy and VET is a bit more dominant in race positions, but the differences are probably just randomness by now.

Another difference is the timing evolution. VET clearly dominated in the first part of the championship and LEC is hitting back in recent races; however, in Haas, they are a bit more mixed, with just a short strike by MAG first and now a short strike by GRO.

Vettel is way ahead of Magnussen in the championship but both of them have a similar domination (or lack of) against their team mates.
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Old 7 Aug 2019, 01:57 (Ref:3921756)   #21
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Update after Hungary:
Code:
        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE HU    TOT   QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 01 = 15- 9  6-6  9-3  HAM 69%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 01 = 14-10  6-6  8-4  VET 46%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 01 = 14-10  7-5  7-5  MAG 46%   Equality
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 00 = 14-10  8-4  6-6  RIC 46%   Equality
In resume, in Budapest things have gone toward a more balanced situation in the teams. Now the score is almost exactly the same in all four teams (BTW, perhaps I will add another team in the comparison sooner than later...). Everybody is in a mild position between equality and a slight advantage of its prime driver.
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Old 12 Sep 2019, 12:33 (Ref:3927551)   #22
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Updating after Italy.

Code:

        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE HU BE IT    TOT   QUA  RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 01 11 10 = 18-10  8-6 10-4  HAM 82%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 = 14-14  6-8  8-6  ---  0%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 01 11 10 = 17-11  9-5  8-6  MAG 66%   Advantage
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 00 10 11 = 17-11 10-4  7-7  RIC 66%   Advantage
The "big" news is Leclerc has finally tied Vettel after two doble-wins GPs.
Hamilton has improved against Bottas but has not still busted Valteri.
Magnussen and Ricciardo also improved against their team mates and now are in am "Advantage" status, instead "Equality".
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Old 12 Sep 2019, 13:51 (Ref:3927561)   #23
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The reversal of fortunes between Vettel / LeClerc pre and post France is quite amazing.
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Old 13 Sep 2019, 12:49 (Ref:3927712)   #24
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Remarkable indeed.

In the other thread, about Vettel-Leclerc (or should we say Leclerc-Vettel?) lap times comparison, I am going to update data and it shows that Leclerc begins to surpass his team mate.

I see how Vettel's future development is being a big issue in media and forums to make endless (and potentially fun) discussions.
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Old 18 Oct 2019, 07:49 (Ref:3935358)   #25
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Team mates comparison after ... a long time in a distant galaxy...
Code:

        AU BA CH AZ SP MO CA FR AU GB GE HU BE IT SI RU JA    TOT   QUA   RAC
HAM-BOT 10 11 01 00 01 11 11 11 00 01 11 01 11 10 11 11 00 = 22-12 10-7  12-5  HAM 88%   Advantage
VET-LEC 11 00 11 11 11 11 11 00 00 00 01 01 00 00 01 00 11 = 17-17  7-10 10-7  ---  0%   Equality
MAG-GRO 01 11 11 11 01 10 10 11 10 00 00 01 11 10 10 01 00 = 19-15 10-7   9-8  MAG 39%   Equality
RIC-HUL 00 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 01 11 00 00 10 11 10 00 01 = 19-15 11-6   8-9  RIC 39%   Equality
Bottas was "almost busted" after Russia but he found a bit of a new life in Suzuka, so he is now "only" 88% of being busted.

In Russia, Leclerc finally overtook Vettel... but in Japan Seb struck back (with lady luck often playing a role between those two) restorinf the tie. Anyway they are now essentially equal in the whole of the season.

Magny(!?) and Ricciardo have a positive score against their team mates but it is not significant by a big margin: even if they win 2-0 all the resting GPs, they will not bust their team mates. The maximum score they can achieve is 91% of certainty of being better than them, just short of being significant in normal statistical practice.
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