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Old 11 Feb 2016, 04:39 (Ref:3613887)   #1441
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Good summary of the tyres and aero problems here:

http://www.f1reader.com/#/news/somet...e-tyres-137582

"But the drivers are about the only significant group not getting an input into this. I mean, they’re only sat behind the wheel with the best sense of all of what lets them follow closely and what doesn’t…
“At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter what we [as drivers] say because it can’t happen” said Lewis indeed in that Interlagos press conference. “The big bosses make the decisions and whether or not they make the right ones for many years, who knows.” Seb agreed: “Unfortunately the sport is very political with different interests from different people"
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Old 11 Feb 2016, 13:02 (Ref:3613956)   #1442
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I'm not doubting your data, but can I ask, is that genuine overtakes on the track, or does it include changes of position as a result of pitstops?
No, it only includes on-track passing.
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Old 11 Feb 2016, 18:57 (Ref:3614037)   #1443
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It worth mentioning that Formula One is in the midst of the sharpest decline in overtaking in the last thirty-five years.
That chart brings up more questions than it answers. Firstly, I am curious of the source (not doubting, but but am curious if more granular detail is available). I also am curious as to opinions as to both why the huge increase in 2010 and on why the decline after that peak. For example 2010 had a significant amount of change happening (a number of new teams, no refueling) and in the end was a relatively tight championship. Was the passing for position spread out within the field or grouped somewhere (i.e. mid and backfield with no real impacts on race results)? Then 2011 and beyond we have increasing dominance of teams like RBR and then Mercedes as well as teams exiting the sport. How does that play into the decline? Have the teams been settling into place since 2010 and converging on similar solutions with all cars having "roughly" the same strengths and weaknesses and those that have an advantage maintaining consistent performance gaps race after race, year after year?

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Old 12 Feb 2016, 14:13 (Ref:3614222)   #1444
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That chart brings up more questions than it answers. Firstly, I am curious of the source (not doubting, but but am curious if more granular detail is available). I also am curious as to opinions as to both why the huge increase in 2010 and on why the decline after that peak. For example 2010 had a significant amount of change happening (a number of new teams, no refueling) and in the end was a relatively tight championship. Was the passing for position spread out within the field or grouped somewhere (i.e. mid and backfield with no real impacts on race results)? Then 2011 and beyond we have increasing dominance of teams like RBR and then Mercedes as well as teams exiting the sport. How does that play into the decline? Have the teams been settling into place since 2010 and converging on similar solutions with all cars having "roughly" the same strengths and weaknesses and those that have an advantage maintaining consistent performance gaps race after race, year after year?

Richard
To answer your questions:

http://cliptheapex.com/overtaking/
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Old 12 Feb 2016, 15:01 (Ref:3614236)   #1445
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To answer your questions:

http://cliptheapex.com/overtaking/
Thanks for the link. You apparently can't see details unless you join (free). I may join later and take a peek. It sounds like its a combo of using published timing/scoring info from years past plus trying to add in what can be seen on videos. Its likely about the best that can found publicly plus they freely admit it has significant limitations due to various reason. The data is likely quite dirty given the collection methods. Quote from that page...

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The final criteria involves subjective judgements and consequently figures can never be regarded as ‘definitive’. Gaps in the available data, such as moves missed by TV cameras or obscured on lap charts by pit stops or retirements, mean that the data do not lend themselves to detailed analysis at the micro level, but are indicative of general trends.
I suspect (not sure until I dig deeper) that it may be difficult to answer the questions I am asking given the issues they mention above. I believe that today, you can harvest existing per lap data to at least tell positions on a per lap basis (as they cross the S/F timing loop) but that would not tell you anything about passes (and repasses) during a lap that did not result in a position change at the end of the lap. I think trying to fill in the mid lap gaps via video analysis is laudable, but eminently flawed in the end. Also, sadly, while I am pretty sure recent timing and scoring data is available (recent being maybe a season or two), I expect the old stuff is gone (?) It would be nice if someone has (I don't think the FIA does this) archived the raw and unmodified published timing/scoring information for each race going back into history.

I have toyed with the idea of starting a website that does much of what they are doing, but in a reproducible way that lists the source code for both data sourcing and analysis so that others can do their own analysis as well as validate any results I might show. I just don't know if I have the time to devote to it.

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Old 15 Feb 2016, 16:38 (Ref:3614872)   #1446
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what year was it, 2012 Chinese gp?, where Kimi's tires hit the cliff?

in a matter of one or two laps he dropped from 2nd to 12th....that counts as 10 on track overtakes but magnified as this would happen to one or two drivers in each race during the early Pirelli years.

dont want to rehash the Pirelli debate here but isnt it fair to say that the overtake numbers from the early Pirelli years were artificially high as teams got to grips with the then new tire characteristics.

so if we could look at this in isolation of the effect that tires have had, i wonder if the other rule changes (aero rules, new PU etc) have had a positive effect? sort of a 'real overtake' statistic if you will.

just not sure how anything can be measured in isolation of the tires though.
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Old 15 Feb 2016, 21:13 (Ref:3614966)   #1447
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That chart brings up more questions than it answers. Firstly, I am curious of the source (not doubting, but but am curious if more granular detail is available). I also am curious as to opinions as to both why the huge increase in 2010 and on why the decline after that peak.
DRS?
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Old 16 Feb 2016, 02:45 (Ref:3615025)   #1448
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Both good points (tires, DRS). Ideally, assuming the number of overtakes was accurate (and even more ideally, it wasn't just a number per lap, but tied to a given car, lap and position on track) AND you had any other numbers of other data elements (tires, weather, timing for other cars, etc.), you could do all kinds of other interesting statistical analysis. Hopefully interesting facts will start to show up as likely correlations. But the problem with a single metric (overtakes per year) is that it just leaves you frustrated as you really can't do anything with it. Is it significant? If so, why? Is it down to chance?

Oddly enough, I think that the FIA, FOM or maybe even the larger teams likely has this data and could do this analysis if they wanted (and maybe they have). It would be interesting to see the results vs. anecdotal evidence. Not that I am saying it isn't likely that some things we have mentioned are not part of "why", but it would just be nice to see the conclusions via repeatable statistical analysis.

I particularly like chilibowl's comments around the teams getting a handle on the new tires performance and that means... less variability/randomness, so a greater likelihood of fewer and fewer passes one season after the other. If nothing else changed there is probably some asymptote we would approach with respect to number of average passes per race.

Richard

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Old 16 Feb 2016, 08:50 (Ref:3615059)   #1449
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One of the fascinating things about F1, and motor racing in general, is that through stabilty, teams and engineers are able to get a full understanding of how parts of the car, whether it be the tyres or wings or aero bits, work best.

However, having said that, that is the theory, and yet we often see that some teams are able to fully utilise that understanding whilst other teams either just "stand still" in relation to progressing in their development of the car, and in fact we also see some teams, even with all that knowledge, going backwards.

It all depends on how those teams/designers/engineers utilise that knowledge.
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Old 16 Feb 2016, 10:03 (Ref:3615079)   #1450
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One of the fascinating things about F1, and motor racing in general, is that through stabilty, teams and engineers are able to get a full understanding of how parts of the car, whether it be the tyres or wings or aero bits, work best.

However, having said that, that is the theory, and yet we often see that some teams are able to fully utilise that understanding whilst other teams either just "stand still" in relation to progressing in their development of the car, and in fact we also see some teams, even with all that knowledge, going backwards.

It all depends on how those teams/designers/engineers utilise that knowledge.
Mike you should enjoy this Motorsport magazine interview with Alistair Caldwell, an ex McLaren team manager. Some interesting observations about how many people in the team are vital to its success, and the importance of drivers, not overly in Caldwell's opinion.

http://www.motorsportmagazine.com/f1...dwell-podcast/


He reminisces that in 1974

McLaren ran and built the following cars, all in house

F1 - Team 1 for Fittipaldi and Hulme
F1 - Team 2 for Hailwood
Indy - Won the 500 Rutherford
Can Am (??? Claim)
F5000 - Won the Championship with Gethin
F2 - Won several races

Total staff 34 including 2 tea ladies and an accountant.

McLaren currently more than 1000 people to "not build 2 F1 cars".

"What do they do?" Caldwell

Don't know the complete accuracy of the story, but it certainly conveys a point.

Last edited by wnut; 16 Feb 2016 at 10:09.
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Old 16 Feb 2016, 11:02 (Ref:3615085)   #1451
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wnut, although I can fully understand the sentiment behind what you have written/quoted, it really has no bearing on modern day racing. Back then, a man and his dog could run the show, but because technology has now become so sophisticated, it requires an army to go racing.

I think, though, that some issue can be taken over some of the claims. Yes McLaren ran three M23s in 1974, winning what we now call the Constructors Championship based only on two of the cars. In fact, they also had involvement in a fourth M23 for a S. African team that ran 3 races. (Don't you just love Wikipedia ).

Yep, they won the Indy 500 that year.

However, McLaren (as an entrant) pulled out of CanAm in 1972, whilst Gethin won the Tasman F5000 series in a Chevron B24 in 1974; the years of the McLaren dominance in F5000 seem to have been between 1969 and 1971, mainly with the M10A and M10B with Gethin winning the European championship in 1969 and 70, once in each car. And I don't believe that McLaren were involved in F2 during 1974; in fact, and I am happy to be corrected on this, but I think that the only year that Mclaren were involved in F2 was in 1968 when Matra swept all before them.

Mclaren probably does employ more than a thousand people nowadays, but I would hazard a guess that possibly just over half that number are involved on a day to day basis for the F1 team, the rest working on all the other McLaren projects.
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Old 16 Feb 2016, 11:17 (Ref:3615086)   #1452
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I was merely quoting Caldwell from the podcast Mike.

On a quick check< I think you are right about F2 in 1974.

The four races that McLaren ran for the S African team would have been in 1973 and the driver was Jody Scheckter who was part of the McLaren works efforts at that stage F5000.

Sure modern teams are different from then, but I would like to see how RBR's design staff under Newey compares numerically to that of McLaren.
It would also be interesting (impossible but interesting) to see numerically who actually carries the bulk of the workload at the various teams. ie The essentials rather than the nice to haves.

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Old 16 Feb 2016, 11:53 (Ref:3615089)   #1453
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It would also be interesting (impossible but interesting) to see numerically who actually carries the bulk of the workload at the various teams. ie The essentials rather than the nice to haves.

This is really where all the problems arise. Modern technology and working practices dictates how many people you need, rather than just have. For example, it actually only needs one person to change the wheels on the car during a pit-stop, but most teams will have 10 - 12 personel on that duty. And does it need 4 or 6 people sat in a container at the pit wall; that used to be the job of the driver's wife/gf with a stop-watch and a clip-board!

Does a team really need to have three 40 foot artics driving around Europe for nigh on six months so that the teams can have fancy "motor-homes", each tream vying with the others to be the place to be! And their electronics trucks so that they can communicate with the white coats who are securely secreted in the bunkers back at HQ?

I don't long for the old days, but I do hanker for a simpler form of racing, one that does not need 400 bods to keep just two cars on a track for just two hours every two to three weeks
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Old 16 Feb 2016, 14:22 (Ref:3615127)   #1454
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it has got a bit ridiculous with the amount kit of staff on hand but i must admit to being a fan of the white coats in secreted bunkers side of things.

that level of global connectivity, real time data transmissions, and super computers does appeal to the inner nerd in me although are they better at calling a race strategy then the experience of Brawn and Schumi or Button in making his own calls when to switch to or from wets?

its kind of refreshing that despite the high level of technology and computer simulation the need to have smart and experienced people on hand still provides the superior advantage. people over machines and feel over data....i wonder if those two extremes can ever be properly reconciled within a sport that values both so highly?

side point, it is often asked what benefits does F1 have for road car development and certainly real time data acquisition and analytics is high on that list, but the applications Mclaren has found for their technologies outside the auto industry are far more interesting imo.

not bound to hold important technologies until it can be properly (and commercially) mass produced for road cars, Mclaren works within their communities, universities, and hospitals to implement their know how into helping make peoples and patients lives better.

real time data acquisition and analytics might just be the most important and real world relevant work F1 is doing right now. i think its scope should be expanded not limited.
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Old 16 Feb 2016, 14:45 (Ref:3615133)   #1455
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Yes, it is amazing how F1 teams have harnessed technology, and how they have used it to enhance outside industries and services. However, they need to tell our government (the UK's) how to use modern communication methods. Within the last 5 years they cancelled a new IT system that was supposed to connect all our hospitals and medical practices together (those paid for by the state) to make the availabilty of medical records seemleess. That cost £15 billion, all down the drain. As it is now, a doctor in one hospital cannot see what has happened to a patient just 5 miles down the road!

But back to F1. Is the racing for the benefit of the teams, or is it to entertain viewers and spectators? If it's the latter, then as a generalisation, then the public are not interested in how quickly the data generated by a sensor on a racing car gets from Outer Mongolia to the lead-lined concrete bunker at Milton Keynes. They want to see how fast the car can go, and whether it can beat the other team mate's car as well as the rest of the field.

We seem to be edging closer and closer to a time when F1 will no longer need drivers in the cars; there is getting to be enough electronic wizardry in the cars that will make the driver redundant. And that is not something that I look forward to reading about.
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