The Historically Accurate EV discussion

[VIVA GT]

I was going to add some electrical punditry in here but decided against it because of my timing. I'm sure you'd have only asked me "Wire you Insulate?"

[PeterMorley]

Where will the electricity to charge these electric cars come from?
One estimate says that France would need something like 5 new power stations (pref. nuclear to meet the emission requirements!) if all their existing cars were swapped for electric ones, and the UK is a similar size.
Given the difficulty in building the 2 power stations that are already planned it seems rather unlikely that enough could be ready by anything like 2035?

Perhaps electricity rationing will be something to add to the range anxiety, battery life & recycling issues of battery cars?

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by PeterMorley

One estimate says that France would need something like 5 new power stations (pref. nuclear to meet the emission requirements!) if all their existing cars were swapped for electric ones

Thats what we've been told for a long while. Probably true. But more strange could be the answer to the question "Where the most do we need EV's?" In big towns I guess. If you know what it takes to have the permission to install only one plug in a building and add that we mainly live in flats in those areas, what could be an acceptable solution in major towns, like Paris or Lyon?

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Thats what we've been told for a long while. Probably true. But more strange could be the answer to the question "Where the most do we need EV's?" In big towns I guess. If you know what it takes to have the permission to install only one plug in a building and add that we mainly live in flats in those areas, what could be an acceptable solution in major towns, like Paris or Lyon?

No need to worry about old cities Gerard - all of the housing and offices will not be compatible with future passivhaus eco standards and the easiest (and only) cost effective solution will be to replace all of it. At that point the local authorities can decide whether vehicles of any sort can be allowed (think of the pollution from tyre and brake dust"!) and if they are they might allow a plug or two to be installed.

The UK has, perhaps, less of a problem. Once gas heating and cooking has been banned many of the older properties will have unused pipes directly in to the home and so adding electricity cables to extend capacity could be achieved without excessive groundworks costs or unsightly overhead cables.

The building, of course, will be just as challenged in terms of eco friendliness but since more recently built properties will probably start failing before the older stuff and the older stuff was in any case much more closely packed in thus providing some element of energy saving anyway, it should be an easy decision to simply extend its life expectancy and push a few cables up it gas supply pipes.

Space for vehicle charging will not be any more of a problem in old terraced streets than in modern estates. Most likely less of a problem in fact but it won't matter anyway as the next generation will not want their own vehicles preferring to rent something autonomous when required. And avoid all of the expense of learning to drive, etc. They probably won't be able to afford personal transport anyway after they have picked up the bill for extending the electric infrastructure and writing off the existing long term investment in traditional energy source fuels and the infrastructure that supports them at present.

[GORDON STREETER]

All this talking about the future power problems and EVs has me worried, so I'm retiring into my eco "house" forever

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by GORDON STREETER

Attachment 57419 All this talking about the future power problems and EVs has me worried, so I'm retiring into my eco "house" forever

Well , don,t get " stoned to often " .

Cue for all of the rest of the going back to the stone age jokes .

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by PeterMorley

One estimate says that France would need something like 5 new power stations (pref. nuclear to meet the emission requirements!) if all their existing cars were swapped for electric ones, and the UK is a similar size.

I don't think all of the cars that people were driving in 1980 have been swapped to newer ones yet?

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by PeterMorley

Where will the electricity to charge these electric cars come from?
One estimate says that France would need something like 5 new power stations (pref. nuclear to meet the emission requirements!) if all their existing cars were swapped for electric ones, and the UK is a similar size.

Well the simple answer is that all the existing cars won’t be replaced by EVs in 2035, or indeed many by years after! It’s a gradual transition that will be achieved over a long period of time.

All ‘2035’ or whenever tells us is the date when a NEW diesel or petrol vehicle cannot be purchased.....

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

All ‘2035’ or whenever tells us is the date when a NEW diesel or petrol vehicle cannot be purchased.....

I that serious? Any vehicle? Whatever the number of wheels? Cant believe it.

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

I that serious? Any vehicle? Whatever the number of wheels? Cant believe it.

I was generalising, Gerard. I don’t think it stretches to trucks, PSVs and the like. Cars and light vans.....

[midgetman]

Just for you.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

I that serious? Any vehicle? Whatever the number of wheels? Cant believe it.

I could.

Combine the calibre of modern politicians and the Madness of Crowds and anything is possible.

(Well except, possibly, the results of Madame Guillotine but there are probably a few medics out there who would question that assertion.)

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by midgetman

Just for you. [IMG]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200217/6663851cff8295966c83e85d9f7843f2.jpg[/IMG

Max, we had an amusing experience on the subject of charging an EV during heavy rain- Few seasons ago at Dijon when GTSCC last raced there, Simon arrived in Model S and plugged his ‘Juice Booster’ into a paddock supply to charge. (JB- a clever h/d lead with waterproof connectors and smart control unit half way along.) It then started to **** down (Dijon!) and the cables, connectors and box were of course on the tarmac, getting very wet. One of the circuit officials saw this and went into a blind panic, no doubt with visions of short circuits, complete failure, armageddin, and tore the plug out of the circuit supply. There then followed a confrontation in the pouring rain between him and the car owner with lots of animated gesticulations! Eventually he stomped off and the car was duly plugged back in to the supply.....

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by grantp

I could. Combine the calibre of modern politicians and the Madness of Crowds and anything is possible.

Really I hope one day or another people will realize that we have to send those politicians to hell. I imagine that in 1788 french King Louis used to say "its fiiiiiine…" So far!

[PeterMorley]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

Thats what we've been told for a long while. Probably true. But more strange could be the answer to the question "Where the most do we need EV's?" In big towns I guess. If you know what it takes to have the permission to install only one plug in a building and add that we mainly live in flats in those areas, what could be an acceptable solution in major towns, like Paris or Lyon?

And the problems caused by digging roads/pavements up to install small phone/internet cables will be nothing compared to installing high voltage electric cables!
Cables running from apartments/houses would make it rather difficult to walk down the pavement!!
Wireless charging pads in the road would probably work but who will pay for them and how long would they take to install!!

My brother is just looking at new cars and tells me that CNG is the most environmental solution (according to a German study, where electric/hybrid cars did not come out well), they also have a small petrol tank which in itself has a similar range to small electric cars.

[PeterMorley]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

Well the simple answer is that all the existing cars won’t be replaced by EVs in 2035, or indeed many by years after! It’s a gradual transition that will be achieved over a long period of time.

All ‘2035’ or whenever tells us is the date when a NEW diesel or petrol vehicle cannot be purchased.....

If they do stop selling new petrol/diesel cars in 2035 most of them will have been replaced in under 10 years, so it wouldn't be much later than 2040 that the majority are alternatively fuelled.

Even if it was 2045 that is extremely quick for major UK infrastructure projects - they will probably have decided what to do with the newts, nimbys etc. by then let alone got on with building anything.

Presumably people would keep such cars much longer than they do currently, especially when all the obvious problems behind a mass switch to milk float style cars emerge, but many modern cars don't seem to be designed to have a long life.

[Mike Bell]

Originally Posted by PeterMorley

My brother is just looking at new cars and tells me that CNG is the most environmental solution (according to a German study, where electric/hybrid cars did not come out well), they also have a small petrol tank which in itself has a similar range to small electric cars.

Here we go again- another ‘study’...... So why not more marketed in recent times then? Although VAG group, Fiat and Opel do have factory order CNG models, Germany has recently overtaken Norway to top Euro EV sales, and that’s before all the 2020 models come to market.....

I’m often reminded of a ‘study’ many years ago that concluded ‘sugar was good for you’, then noted that the research was paid for by the then British Sugar Corporation........

[Peter Mallett]

This EV chat is actually an interesting discussion. Speaking as a pragmatist I tend to agree with all the perceived barriers to a complete roll out. But, equally as that same pragmatist I also see little alternative. Fuel cell technology will no doubt move very quickly as will alternative batteries.

There is, as someone mentioned, the current thinking that vehicle ownership will be a thing of the past in towns and cities. This is where autonomous vehicles will be available to rent or hire as per the Uber model.

In the country it will be different because the volume of traffic will necessarily be higher due to the need for longer individual journeys. All of which would, in theory, reduce the need for charging station countrywide since the autonomous vehicles would return to base to recharge.

[bauble]

BTCC hybrid power set to hit track this summer
Project running to schedule ahead of 2022 race introduction.

Not historic but relevant?

[Peter Mallett]

Well yes but then again this entire discussion is not historic. I may send these posts to Parc Ferme.

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by Mike Bell

Here we go again- another ‘study’...... So why not more marketed in recent times then? Although VAG group, Fiat and Opel do have factory order CNG models, Germany has recently overtaken Norway to top Euro EV sales, and that’s before all the 2020 models come to market.....

I’m often reminded of a ‘study’ many years ago that concluded ‘sugar was good for you’, then noted that the research was paid for by the then British Sugar Corporation........

I used to get papers from the UK Institute of Electrical Engineers .
I believe they had to produce so many peer reviewed papers per year to get their government grants .
It actually became embarrassing the rubbish they were printing , mostly for political correctness I believe .
So much of " in the future we will be able to !!!!!!! " . And a lot of it was needing a new magic thing & ignoring the laws of physics .

But that type of propaganda is now rife over most of the mainstream media .
Greenpeace put up adverts claiming that the cost of renewable energy was coming down . The advertising standards agency made them take the adverts down as it is a total lie . But it served a purpose , as the media often quote that , and some of the public believe it .

[Peter Mallett]

Construction costs are coming down, just talk to the contractors. The unit price for production has fallen due to that but this doesn't get passed on to the consumer since the tariffs are set by the "cap".

Again though, this only applies when the turbines or whatever are working.

Edit: The cost per Kwh Is probably higher than a fossil fuel power station but since they don't run for 24hrs 365 days per year the actual production cost can be amortized over the year showing a lesser sum. Notwithstanding that the systems aren't actually generating anything.

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

I used to get papers from the UK Institute of Electrical Engineers .

A qualified discrediting of the IEEE - or just a disagreement between IMechE and IEEE?

Why should one Institute be more reliable than another? Is this a case of Mechanical Engineers and Electrical Engineers being in disagreement?

Originally Posted by Tel 911S

I know it is a long time since I qualified to be an AMIMechE , & I have forgotten more than I can remember , but I still do know the difference between power & energy .

[grantp]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

This EV chat is actually an interesting discussion. Speaking as a pragmatist I tend to agree with all the perceived barriers to a complete roll out. But, equally as that same pragmatist I also see little alternative. Fuel cell technology will no doubt move very quickly as will alternative batteries.

There is, as someone mentioned, the current thinking that vehicle ownership will be a thing of the past in towns and cities. This is where autonomous vehicles will be available to rent or hire as per the Uber model.

In the country it will be different because the volume of traffic will necessarily be higher due to the need for longer individual journeys. All of which would, in theory, reduce the need for charging station countrywide since the autonomous vehicles would return to base to recharge.

By the time the motoring world for towns and cities changes, here in the England there will only be urban areas for most of the (habitable) country.

And most goods will delivered.

No need to travel to the bank for any reason - there are few left even now.

Medical requirements? Call an air ambulance.

The price of ICE fuels will be influenced by volumes. Likely becoming low volumes very quickly as the traditional liquid energy purveyors go rapidly "green" to exploit the opportunities that politicians will present to them.

Expect fuel prices to head to the levels found in the remote north of Scotland and then trend upwards from there as the benefits of economy of scale disappear.

The rarity of fuel stations combined with the convenience of re-fuelling at home for local runs will likely make electric rather attractive at remote locations PROVIDING they are mains connected.

If they have oil fired heating there may be some opportunity offered to make use of the same oil storage options for both heating and powering vehicles in rural locations without tax penalties. (Road use taxes would be applied instead.)

Once the majority of existing petrol stations have been converted to charging stations ICE powered travel will almost certainly tend to become less attractive as a comparison so no one will object loudly to political diktats that quickly erode its viability.

All of this will happen irrespective of any true and proven logic for rapid change and the likely costs incurred.

Obviously the materials (Steel and concrete, cable, etc.) for the infrastructure will all need to be imported as will the labour and plant equipment required to undertake the work.

So, situation pretty much as now - just a lot more of it.

Maybe the Govt. could ask Bezos for a gift form his $10Billion pot?

Or perhaps it would be easier if Amazon, et al, simply paid a bit more tax?

[Tel 911S]

Originally Posted by Peter Mallett

Construction costs are coming down, just talk to the contractors. The unit price for production has fallen due to that but this doesn't get passed on to the consumer since the tariffs are set by the "cap".

Again though, this only applies when the turbines or whatever are working.

Edit: The cost per Kwh Is probably higher than a fossil fuel power station but since they don't run for 24hrs 365 days per year the actual production cost can be amortized over the year showing a lesser sum. Notwithstanding that the systems aren't actually generating anything.

I know what you are saying peter , the construction cost might come down .
https://www.thegwpf.org/forget-the-s...e-not-falling/
But the grid price of electricity varies between £40 to £50 Per MWh .
A CCGT [ gas ] power station produces power at £30 to £40 per MWh ,
The very cheapest offshore wind station actually producing power is £136 , & a lot of them are over £180 . And then they also get " Constraint " payments putting the cost up even more .
Data from a couple of years ago that shows , over the lifetime of a gas power station . renewables cost 16 to 17 times more for power .
https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/uk-w...-factors-2017/