THE F1 COVID THREAD: Will GP be cancelled?

[canaglia]

Originally Posted by thetool

Monaco & Baku will also both be off. Pretty sure there's already replacements lined up.

Was in Monaco very recently and I can assure you that preparations for the track, sponsor advertising etc... are already in progress and in advanced stage, also because formula E will race on may first week.
Don't know about baku actual situation, but I won't be surprised if also japan, singapore, mexico, USA and brazil races will be canceled

[Alan52]

Australia won’t happen either.
Any chance of the 2 weeks quarantine restrictions being relaxed have disappeared with the federal governments complete bungling of the vaccine roll out.Latest estimate I saw said Australians wont be vaccinated until the end of 2022.So 2022 Albert Park pretty much gone as well.

[canaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan52

Australia won’t happen either.
Any chance of the 2 weeks quarantine restrictions being relaxed have disappeared with the federal governments complete bungling of the vaccine roll out.Latest estimate I saw said Australians wont be vaccinated until the end of 2022.So 2022 Albert Park pretty much gone as well.

Yeah also australia to me is very unlikely

[bella]

by august almost the entire f1 paddock will have had both vaccines one way or another (not including the deniers). so i think it's tricky for us to sit here and express an opinion when we don't even know whether some countries are planning to implement vaccination passport requirements for visitors or not.

inclined to agree that aside from monaco and maybe singapore, the first races to be cancelled will be those based in cities. f1 itself has a very solid testing and tracing procedure, far more so than any national programme, so i think realistically, of all sports, it stands the best chance of being used as a pilot event.

[broadrun96]

I think the countries above won't get the opportunity to worry about VERY easy to fake passport nonsense. It's the appearance of allowing the racing when locals may not be able to do anything resembling normalcy. It's scary reading how many people have found ways to hack and create fake vaccine passports even for "secured" systems, government systems outside of defense rarely use anything with current security it seems.

[billy bleach]

Originally Posted by bella

by august almost the entire f1 paddock will have had both vaccines one way or another (not including the deniers). so i think it's tricky for us to sit here and express an opinion when we don't even know whether some countries are planning to implement vaccination passport requirements for visitors or not.

inclined to agree that aside from monaco and maybe singapore, the first races to be cancelled will be those based in cities. f1 itself has a very solid testing and tracing procedure, far more so than any national programme, so i think realistically, of all sports, it stands the best chance of being used as a pilot event.

Being vaccinated doesn’t mean one is no longer a spreader....

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by bella

by august almost the entire f1 paddock will have had both vaccines one way or another (not including the deniers). so i think it's tricky for us to sit here and express an opinion when we don't even know whether some countries are planning to implement vaccination passport requirements for visitors or not.

inclined to agree that aside from monaco and maybe singapore, the first races to be cancelled will be those based in cities. f1 itself has a very solid testing and tracing procedure, far more so than any national programme, so i think realistically, of all sports, it stands the best chance of being used as a pilot event.

I would agree with that to a certain extent, but I also believe that some countries will be suffering from 'covid support fatigue' and having paid such a human price in lives lost and financial cost to the enonomy and supporting the economy, plus the cost of the vaccine rollout, I think that even some countries will be even more cautious with anything at all that presents even the faintest opportunity of setting infections off again.

I know that some countries come up with a figure of the vaue of an event like F1 to an economy or region, but Covid even puts some perspective on that. I would imagine the financial benefit to the economy of an F1 race would be wiped out in a matter of minutes if it caused a pike in infections and a partial lockdown of an entire region.

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by billy bleach

Being vaccinated doesn’t mean one is no longer a spreader....

Exactly, unfortunately not many people seem to accept that and believe that it's the answer to all of our problems.

[bella]

i don’t think there’s any studies that suggest the vaccination does or doesn’t stop people carrying it and passing it on tbh. logically it should, but covid isn’t logical and neither are vaccinations.

rough data in the uk (and probably israel) suggests that it does, but obviously not entirely because no vaccine is 100% effective.

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

I would agree with that to a certain extent, but I also believe that some countries will be suffering from 'covid support fatigue' and having paid such a human price in lives lost and financial cost to the enonomy and supporting the economy, plus the cost of the vaccine rollout, I think that even some countries will be even more cautious with anything at all that presents even the faintest opportunity of setting infections off again.

I know that some countries come up with a figure of the vaue of an event like F1 to an economy or region, but Covid even puts some perspective on that. I would imagine the financial benefit to the economy of an F1 race would be wiped out in a matter of minutes if it caused a pike in infections and a partial lockdown of an entire region.

that’s an interesting point, although it’d be difficult for f1 to cause a spike in local infections unless you open the event to a significant number of spectators without any pre-screening.

it’s definitely going to take local perspective as well an an international view to judge it correctly. in that respect i don’t envy f1 and the event promoters in the slightest.

[billy bleach]

There is not a Politician on Earth outside of Russia that will take any risk that could be laid at their door. An F1 race is pretty low on their list..

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by bella

that’s an interesting point, although it’d be difficult for f1 to cause a spike in local infections unless you open the event to a significant number of spectators without any pre-screening.

Agreed, but again this puts further cost and resources on someone in order for F1 to put on a race. Is FOM going to pay for the cost of screening say 100,000 people 3 times a weekend? That's £1.5m to be paid for by someone aside from using up resource capacity for testing. Does the promnoter pay and if so what with as most of them barely make a profit, does the goverment pay and if so on what grounds to pour public money into it or FOM who have taken a massive hit already on lost or reduced hosting fees?

Honestly, if I had the local government hat on I would probably say, do you know what this is too risky and potentially costly for us, lets give it a miss for another year, we already have too many other commitments.

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by billy bleach

There is not a Politician on Earth outside of Russia that will take any risk that could be laid at their door. An F1 race is pretty low on their list..

Brazil might be another good candiate, the president is anti lockdown and almost a covid denier, despite having caught it himself!

[S griffin]

Brazil have been along with America candidates for being the worst handlers of the pandemic

[bella]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Agreed, but again this puts further cost and resources on someone in order for F1 to put on a race. Is FOM going to pay for the cost of screening say 100,000 people 3 times a weekend? That's £1.5m to be paid for by someone aside from using up resource capacity for testing. Does the promnoter pay and if so what with as most of them barely make a profit, does the goverment pay and if so on what grounds to pour public money into it or FOM who have taken a massive hit already on lost or reduced hosting fees?

Honestly, if I had the local government hat on I would probably say, do you know what this is too risky and potentially costly for us, lets give it a miss for another year, we already have too many other commitments.

granted we're at the more... test orientated and cash rich end of things but if you take the uk as an example, the government is suggesting we should be doing lateral flow tests a couple of times a week as a matter of course. they need a better system to register and demonstrate the results for entry into events. it's an interesting question about where the cost obligation lies - arguably lateral flow tests could be built into the cost of a ticket. you'd also need falsifying test results to be a legal no-no for ultimate event security, but that's common across all industries.

as such, this isn't a conversation unique to motorsport - the entertainment industry is going through a similar process as i'm sure you're aware.

i think it's worth remembering as a side note that the vaccinations *are* the answer to holding big events for a highly if not fully vaccinated population. even if somebody does develop the virus post-vaccination, they are very close if not 100% protected from serious illness, hospitalisation and death as a direct result of catching it. so if a promoter was to demand only vaccinated people attend, you're looking at a much safer environment, particularly at events where accommodation is in tents or at the circuit itself. the only issue is that societally, you'd probably only be able to demand that from spectators once the entire adult population has been offered or has access to a vaccination.

developing a digital vaccination passport is the way forward for that. i can see it being problematic for countries where there is no digitised medical records system, but in the uk it should be reasonably easy to produce an app that is able to draw that information from a persons record. my own personal belief is that it shouldn't be a pre-requisite for everyday life but big organised events and high risk situations proving your vaccination status should be a given in the short to mid term. it's no different really to some hired goon searching your bag before entry into a venue.

ultimately, i think you're right - in many cases holding a f1 race with spectators is going to be too high risk. but that's judging with a uk mindset, uk levels of vaccination acceptance and a uk-centric forward view. the national culture around covid country to country seems to vary significantly, and i don't think it's something we can sit here and say "yes" or "no" about.

[Moneyseeker]

Originally Posted by bella

granted we're at the more... test orientated and cash rich end of things but if you take the uk as an example, the government is suggesting we should be doing lateral flow tests a couple of times a week as a matter of course. they need a better system to register and demonstrate the results for entry into events. it's an interesting question about where the cost obligation lies - arguably lateral flow tests could be built into the cost of a ticket. you'd also need falsifying test results to be a legal no-no for ultimate event security, but that's common across all industries.

as such, this isn't a conversation unique to motorsport - the entertainment industry is going through a similar process as i'm sure you're aware.

i think it's worth remembering as a side note that the vaccinations *are* the answer to holding big events for a highly if not fully vaccinated population. even if somebody does develop the virus post-vaccination, they are very close if not 100% protected from serious illness, hospitalisation and death as a direct result of catching it. so if a promoter was to demand only vaccinated people attend, you're looking at a much safer environment, particularly at events where accommodation is in tents or at the circuit itself. the only issue is that societally, you'd probably only be able to demand that from spectators once the entire adult population has been offered or has access to a vaccination.

developing a digital vaccination passport is the way forward for that. i can see it being problematic for countries where there is no digitised medical records system, but in the uk it should be reasonably easy to produce an app that is able to draw that information from a persons record. my own personal belief is that it shouldn't be a pre-requisite for everyday life but big organised events and high risk situations proving your vaccination status should be a given in the short to mid term. it's no different really to some hired goon searching your bag before entry into a venue.

ultimately, i think you're right - in many cases holding a f1 race with spectators is going to be too high risk. but that's judging with a uk mindset, uk levels of vaccination acceptance and a uk-centric forward view. the national culture around covid country to country seems to vary significantly, and i don't think it's something we can sit here and say "yes" or "no" about.

Yep and a lot of it is going to be what some analysts call 'risk transfer', an example of which has been happening in retail banking. In the old days your money was held by the bank and they assumed more or less 100% of the risk of it being stolen because the risk was very low, frauds were unsophisticated and robberies on banking premises very rare. With the move to remote, phone and now online/app banking and contactless cards - they have transfered more of the risk to the customer to protect themselves from very sophisticated fraud and other methods. Indeed the outgoing CEO of RBS made it clear that customers who were victims of fraud only had themselves to blame for being careless....Although the regulators are now reviewing this approach.

It may well be the same with pandemic, where governments assume 100% of the risk and cost of the pandemic, it may be that as we move forward and have to live with the virus, that some of this risk is transferred to business, venues, promoters.

[S griffin]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

Yep and a lot of it is going to be what some analysts call 'risk transfer', an example of which has been happening in retail banking. In the old days your money was held by the bank and they assumed more or less 100% of the risk of it being stolen because the risk was very low, frauds were unsophisticated and robberies on banking premises very rare. With the move to remote, phone and now online/app banking and contactless cards - they have transfered more of the risk to the customer to protect themselves from very sophisticated fraud and other methods. Indeed the outgoing CEO of RBS made it clear that customers who were victims of fraud only had themselves to blame for being careless....Although the regulators are now reviewing this approach.

It may well be the same with pandemic, where governments assume 100% of the risk and cost of the pandemic, it may be that as we move forward and have to live with the virus, that some of this risk is transferred to business, venues, promoters.

The vaccines should help us move forward, although at the same time we can’t wait forever, so hopefully there comes a point where enough has been done, so we can go back to normal and even if the virus remains, the risk of getting it is lower

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Moneyseeker

It may well be the same with pandemic, where governments assume 100% of the risk and cost of the pandemic, it may be that as we move forward and have to live with the virus, that some of this risk is transferred to business, venues, promoters.

There is also a tendency for individuals to become more comfortable accepting a risk as they become more accustomed to the risk being around.

In my professional capacity - the risk appetite surrounding COVID was initially very low, with the majority of seniors being very risk-averse. As time has progressed, and the risk has become more 'familiar', the risk appetite has increased and I am seeing an increasing level of tolerance emerging in the risk management process.

It is only natural to be more scared of what you don't know or understand. It doesn't mean that the risk is any less now, just that individuals are willing to tolerate more of it as they have become more comfortable with the risk being around.

That is why I think we have to be very careful when it comes to determining how well or poorly a country has 'handled' the COVID pandemic. When it comes to risk appetites - it is not always an obvious answer as to what is right or wrong. There needs to be a judgement on how much risk is willing to be tolerated - and everyone's appetite will differ. I think that is manifesting itself in some individuals' desire to 'return to normal'. As time has progressed, what some seem to be asking for is for more risk to be taken, because the cost of risk mitigation exceeds the benefit in their analysis.

[Gerard C]

Originally Posted by crmalcolm

There is also a tendency for individuals to become more comfortable accepting a risk as they become more accustomed to the risk being around.As time has progressed, what some seem to be asking for is for more risk to be taken, because the cost of risk mitigation exceeds the benefit in their analysis.

OK, I see your point. And fully assume to be said "bizarre". The more we go the more worried I am. May be one can put this in numbers, like if I had a certain percentage of chances to catch the virus the more I go with no jab(s) the more risky it is to survive. So, theoretically, I've better dye right now in good health than dye with the virus…
I'm certainly not accustomed to what is done by other citizens and the general lack of respect of any rule or human life. I'm really worried not only by what is done by our instances but by what they dont do.
Bizarre, me? Yes, sure I am. But alive. For how long? In what state?

[crmalcolm]

Originally Posted by Gerard C

OK, I see your point. And fully assume to be said "bizarre". The more we go the more worried I am.

Absolutely - the worry can go either way.

Some people will become more blasé, others more troubled or zealous.

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by bella

...it's no different really to some hired goon searching your bag before entry into a venue...

so for sure i am philosophically against the idea of health checks required for entry (particualry for citizens within their own country) and i could say it is a slippery slope when we rationalize one kind of aggressive search in order to rationalize another even more invasive type of search.

but as you also say, there is a difference between a random search and one for attendance to a large events, specifically one which the govt could easily and justly cancel unless these sorts of measures are taken.

i suppose i would prefer a more benign version of it though. the Miami Heat have had excellent results with their covid sniffing dogs, perhaps passive scans of body temperatures (not sure if that works for covid or not though), better access to rapid testing for those who fail screens and then combined with masks, distance between seats, hygiene stations etc.

but no doubt, one major outbreak at a sporting event and my tune will have to change very quickly. actually the other day i looked back at my covid related posts...definitely my opinions/outlooks have changed tremendously as i move through various phases of the living through covid era.

interesting times.

[VIVA GT]

Originally Posted by chillibowl

so for sure i am philosophically against the idea of health checks required for entry (particualry for citizens within their own country) and i could say it is a slippery slope when we rationalize one kind of aggressive search in order to rationalize another even more invasive type of search.

but as you also say, there is a difference between a random search and one for attendance to a large events, specifically one which the govt could easily and justly cancel unless these sorts of measures are taken.

i suppose i would prefer a more benign version of it though. the Miami Heat have had excellent results with their covid sniffing dogs, perhaps passive scans of body temperatures (not sure if that works for covid or not though), better access to rapid testing for those who fail screens and then combined with masks, distance between seats, hygiene stations etc.

but no doubt, one major outbreak at a sporting event and my tune will have to change very quickly. actually the other day i looked back at my covid related posts...definitely my opinions/outlooks have changed tremendously as i move through various phases of the living through covid era.

interesting times.

Regarding your last two sentences, I am sure that all rational thinking people will have changed their opinions and outlooks over the past 12 months or so. We are all learning about this virus, its effects and possible preventions or cures on a daily basis and I think it is right to remain open minded about it, question what we are unsure about, and to be honest enough to admit that what we may have thought at the beginning (in what ever respect) was wrong.
Although they haven't admitted that they were wrong (they will just never do that) politicians have altered their stance about things during that time. Let's face it, Boris Johnson was happily bragging about shaking hands with patients in the Covid wards at one stage...
These sure are interesting times.

[chillibowl]

Originally Posted by E.B

I dont wish to sound too doom and gloom, but the reality to me is the November date for the AGP is nothing more than a target which may or may not be achieved. The good news is that the track changes planned are well underway. I took a drive to Albert Park on Monday and can vouch for work going full steam ahead. (When I say the good news, that is not to say I agree with all the changes! But that is another subject. )

i dont think its doom and gloom.

the situation improves, it gets worse, and we really never know where any particular place will be with their covid fight at any particular point in time.

glad i am not the one responsible for making these decisions.

[Gerard C]

Its good to see I'm not alone to have changed my habits facing a thing I have few knowledge about. I remember the first time I heard about Italy closing its borders, wondering how and why it was possible to "close" a full country.
From this day, well before others in my neigborhood, I changed many of my old habits, the first being to wear a face mask. I rely on the sentence "if you dont change while the world is changing, you wont survive for a long time". By the way, where is Darwin when we need him?

Special thanks to crmalcolm for the "é" in blasé…

[bathurst77]

Australia has botched the vaccine roll out and so the quarantine will still be in place late this year. Also there is a federal election due around then or shortly after
They cant allow f1 to not quarantine when the general public cant travel
Its the optics

[Greem]

Turkey to replace Canada in 2021; Montreal signs two year contract extension.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/tu...endar/6494679/