Montoya - odds on never being world champion

[O'Schumacher]

Well, I may be a poor student, but this week I'll go to a number of bookies and see what odds they'll give me on Monty never becoming F1 Champion.

Here's why...

If Williams have the best car, Ralf is better at optimising. If they don't, another team will be ahead of them. Also at McLaren, Kimi will prove he's faster, and besides, by then, Alonso will be on his way to the 1st of many titles.

[Adam43]

I hope the bookies disagree with you, otherwise you'll get poor odds - it might even be 'odds-on' and it'll be a poor bet!

What odds do you think are reasonable?

[Adam43]

Alonso might be another not to be champion good get. He might stay with Flav. for ever and Renault never make it because due to the current situation at Renault they get bored and leave F1?

Kimi might never make it because he'll be at McLaren forever and maybe they'll always run last years car?

Perhaps Micheal will never retire and no one else currently on the grid will ever be champion.

Anyway. I think Montoya has as much chance as Kimi and Alonso.

[Armco Bender]

Perhaps Micheal will never retire and no one else currently on the grid will ever be champion.

If he gets number 7 my money is on he will stay and try to get through to No 10,that would ensure legend status for all time.(and upset lots of folks around here )

[Damon]

Originally posted by O'Schumacher
If Williams have the best car, Ralf is better at optimising.

Well wide of the mark! What is that based on exactly? Montoya beat Ralf comfortably all through 2002 and 2003, whether the car was good or not. Your statement simply doesn't add up :confused:.

[Mattracer]

Optimising? Optimising what? He gets blown away regularly, like today for example in qual.

Anybody else remember the bonehead move climbing over the top of the #2 Ferrari at the first corner in Australia?

JPM "never being world champion"?

More chance than Ralf has at Toyota or Jaguar...

[BootsOntheSide]

I think Juan has what it takes to be champion. Looking at the pace of the Williams, 2004 is a possibility, but he does have to get the upper hand in the team early on, especially if Ralf does decide to stay. 2005 depends on what reputation he can take to McLaren, and how quickly he can settle into the team. Once Michael has retired his chances will improve, although it could be that Alonso, Webber, Button or others are in a position to challenge.

[Mattracer]

All that is true about Alonso, Button, Webber et al. More importantly, wouldn't taking the WDC be BETTER with MS still around than after he is gone? It's a fait accompli that there are those guys scrapping for it after he's not in the picture.

[Don K]

Don't forget that the time is running out for older drivers like Montoya, Ralf and Webber, now that we have youngsters like Kimmi, Button and Alonso coming in.

[Ralf]

Originally posted by Damon
Montoya beat Ralf comfortably all through 2002 and 2003

Did he?

Keep doing that & you'll go blind!

[Damon]

Well according to the final standings he did :confused:.

[Nina]

ralf had better race wins over the past 2 years - ralf blows hot and cold (yes he blows) I dont like how ralf never seemed to have a go at Michael, HOWEVER, I think if Ralf would have stayed hot enough for long enough last yr he would have compared better with JPM - Ralf gave up towards the end of the season. I often wonder about Ralf if he didnt seem to have all the 'issues' then perhaps he would be a different person on and off the track.

[Mr V]

Funny that a thread like this should be started by a user named "O'Schumacher"

You could be waiting a long time (i.e until he retires) before being able to cash in, or you might be able to rip up the slip after this season Who knows?


(the poster) Ralf, what is the point of a post like that? But yes, looking at the final tables for the last 2 years, JPM has had the better seasons. Funny that JPM is going to another top 3 team, whilst Rafe is looking further back down the field for another team

[hamsmith]

how would the bet work? say montoya has five more unsucessful seasons then retires with plans to live happy ever after with his wife and has no plans to return would the bookies pay out because he has never won a world championship or would they argue that because there is always (unless he dies) a possibility he could come back to have another shot that it hasn't been proven that he will never win WDC?

[wilbursdad]

Williams have obviously ousted the wrong man, everybody knows this, even Head and Williams, at the end of the day BMW obviously have prefered to push for a German driver to promote their engines and Schumacher is the name of the moment. All that aside, Monty has made the right decision to move as who wants to work for a bunch of soul destroying back stabbers? As for Schumacher Jr asking for 25mil. He should remember that he is like his brother in name, not in talent, and should ask for a more respectable $10 per hour.

[Mattracer]

Originally posted by Mr V
Funny that JPM is going to another top 3 team, whilst Rafe is looking further back down the field for another team

One is looking forward and the other is looking back.

[Kicking-back]

Originally posted by wilbursdad
Williams have obviously ousted the wrong man,

They didn't oust him, he chose to leave.

[O'Schumacher]

Damon,

you wanted me to explain my statement. Well here goes.

For the sake of argument, let's just use last year as an example. Williams' best weekends to me (from a car point of view) were the middle of the year events at Nurbugring (McLaren were out front coz of Kimi not the car), France, Germany & Hungary.

Ralf had the legs of Juan in all of these events. I reckon Ralf would've beaten him in Germany had he not retired at turn 1. And in Hungary he sliced through the field after being demoted 10 places on the grid. Once again though, they were thwarted coz Alonso was just mighty.

So yes, to me Ralf is better at optimising the set up of a car that is really working.

Now, let me counter it.

Williams had some off-weekends in 03. Let me cite Spain, Britain etc, and Lo and behold, Ralf was nowhere. I admit that Montoya is vastly better at driving around a problem (excessive tyre wear in Spain, changeable conditions in Britan etc), and as far as explosive is concerned, his move on Rubens in Japan was sheer class.

But on weekends like this, he's lost points not to Ralf, but to Renault, McLaren & Ferrari.

Speaking of McLaren, when he joins them in 04, he'll realise that Kimi is just as good at the difficult stuff as him, and doesn't let his head drop like Monty can (e.g. France after the pit-stop fiasco). What's more, the iceman has proved he has the maturity to drive for a championship, whilst Montoya is still a little too do or die in some of his moves.

The guy is great to watch though!

[Damon]

Montoya had the legs on Ralf all weekend and only lost out through poor pitstop work. The way he passed and pulled away from Ralf early on made me wonder if they were on different strats, but apparently not, which begs the question - what was Ralf up to??

[O'Schumacher]

Maybe this year will be the turning point for JPM.

[frederick]

I think 04 is going to be character building for Montoya in that he will be fighting with a hostile pit-crew as well as the other 19 cars,

I have a strong sense of deja-vu with what i witnessed today:
ferrari did it to Irvine when he looked like winning the championship while michael was off sick.
BAR did it to Villeneuve last year.

I think that Williams is every bit as capable of using spiteful, churlish and purile tactics to make Monty look bad.......regardless of what it may cost them.

On a more positive note,I though saturdays qualifying was some of the most exciting stuff i've seen in a while.

Buttons second Qual lap was remarkable, to pull a second and a half out of nowhere showed some real grit and commitment.
we were sitting in the Senna stand at turn 16 and the way he tossed the car into the corner and powered it out the other side is one to remember...everyone else was lifting slightly, even button, but on that one lap there was no hesitation...."pineapples" mate.

[Adam43]

Originally posted by frederick
I think that Williams is every bit as capable of using spiteful, churlish and purile tactics to make Monty look bad.......regardless of what it may cost them.

I don't think so. Williams are quite capable of giving Montoya a fair deal. They've done it in the past - prime example being Hill in 1996, but there are many others - Mansell, Piquet, Prost...

[Don K]

Originally posted by Damon
Montoya had the legs on Ralf all weekend and only lost out through poor pitstop work. The way he passed and pulled away from Ralf early on made me wonder if they were on different strats, but apparently not, which begs the question - what was Ralf up to??

In fact, Ralf was faster on friday and sunday.
Montoya was faster on saturday, and on the first stint on sunday, and on the first practice on friday.

After Ralf had his front wing adjusted during his first pit stop (remember those 2 mechanics who wer in front of the guys that were working on the front tyres?), he was faster than Montoya.
So I assume that something was wrong with Ralf's front wing during the first stint today. Under those circumstances, it would be stupid to fight your own team mate that early in the race.