[LM24] The Le Mans 2016 Sunny weather thread

[PascaLM]

Let's get rid of these devil's formulas and let's come back to sensible things :

[Aysedasi]

Yep, let's all employ the power of positive thought! (Goodness knows how many times I've said that over the years! ).

[GT6]

It will be warm and dry, lets all think that and it will happen

[Adam43]

Originally Posted by Chiana

What you REALLY want from long period weather forecast, is like the example below, which shows the promised forecast as well as the error margins to opposite directions (of course, the chances of errors grow gradually the longer the period). If these kind of graphs were utilized more often in general weather forecasting, maybe people would learn to interpret them better



And no, it ain't no easy profession (photo from foreca.fi)

http://blogi.foreca.fi/wp-content/up...80413664_o.jpg

That kind of thing would be much better.

Would people interpret it better - I doubt it!

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by Adam43

Except they're not.

What they shouldn't do is forecast so far off. The uncertainty is too high. Yet there is demand. I think a likelihood rating and more education of those reading about probability would help.

Well they are.. precisely because they do forecast so far out.
In some parts of the world it is easier to forecast, because what ever your forecast, you will be accurate for at least 5 minutes during that period.

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by Chiana

What you REALLY want from long period weather forecast, is like the example below, which shows the promised forecast as well as the error margins to opposite directions (of course, the chances of errors grow gradually the longer the period). If these kind of graphs were utilized more often in general weather forecasting, maybe people would learn to interpret them better



And no, it ain't no easy profession (photo from foreca.fi)

Easy Chiana! I was being facetious. Just trying to lighten the mood, but obviously not doing a terribly good job.

[PascaLM]

I only hope that the highest temperature will be closer to 21°C, like at test day, than close to 19°C. These two little degrees make a difference for everyone's comfort.
Scarves are recommended for the night.

[Spyderman]

Originally Posted by PascaLM

I only hope that the highest temperature will be closer to 21°C, like at test day, than close to 19°C. These two little degrees make a difference for everyone's comfort.
Scarves are recommended for the night.

According to a well known weather forecast website, the max forecasted temp for Saturday is in fact 21(as of today).
On the other hand, they forecasted 11mm precipitation for the same day, and have now reduced it to 3mm. It's getting better all the time!

[rubberduck]

Being professionally involved in weather forecasting:
It's simply a too long time - horizon to give a reasonable forecast. Just look at the error margins in Chianas post.

As of yet, (western) Europe's going to see a period of deep low activity for the first half of the week. What happens afterwards simply cannot be said and depends how quick the successor of bespoke low passes the Atlantic Ocean.
The range goes from following closely, settling the next low right above W FRA during the race weekend. That would produce a couple of showers (far away from the intensity we had last week!) and sub - average temperatures, but nothing really cold, just below 20 °C at daytime. On the other end of the spectrum we see the low remaining above the eastern Atlantic, shuffling plenty of warm Mediterranean air towards the continent. Some frontal rain would be followed and it's to be seen if the timing is "good" or "bad" in terms of racing. Temperatures are a bit higher in this case.
Quite certain we can exclude a stable high with drought and heatwave - like temperatures. Also, nobody's going to freeze during the nights. At least one wet session will be seen.


Checking values from either weather-website returns uninterpreted numerical output these days. Those numbers are going to change a lot in the coming days.

After all, it's mid JUN and it's not the Eifel, so we're going to have a good time then, aren't we?

[whitemr2]

Thank you Rubberduck for the update, sounds fair.
If you would look at weather sites, wich one would you use?

[Truckosaurus]

So, should I pack my Big Coat or not?

[Muppetdave901]

According to the Pistonheads cat theorem, it will be Ultra Scorchio!

[GT6]

Just as long as it is warm and dry i will be happy

[vincegail]

Originally Posted by Muppetdave901

According to the Pistonheads cat theorem, it will be Ultra Scorchio!

I love kiter42's cat test

[chernaudi]

Again, with the race weekend being about a week away (and the race itself being further away than that), it's a crap shoot. And your mileage will vary depending on who's forecast you're looking at. Weather Underground says a lot of off and on rain from Sunday though Saturday (WU only goes 10 days out), while Accuweather's forecast is more optimistic with reduced chances of rain, more sun, and an apparently dry Sunday.

[rubberduck]

Originally Posted by chernaudi

Weather Underground says a lot of off and on rain from Sunday though Saturday (WU only goes 10 days out), while Accuweather's forecast is more optimistic with reduced chances of rain, more sun, and an apparently dry Sunday.

Which is exactly the spectrum i described earlier. I know it's hard, but we simply have to wait for the time to come.

Interestingly though, we may get a strategic variable into the game via this uncertainity, because the turning up of a robust trend in the next days is highly unlikely. Just look at this

It's basically random noise temperature - wise and that's just O N E set of scenarios. [i.e. reality is not bound to any of these graphs! For those interested: Google deterministic chaos and probabilistics]

I would recommend not to read that much into the numbers floating around. We'll settle somewhere close to 20 °C. At the same time, we now have the worst outlooks i would say, so the numbers may get better. Also, i don't think it'll rain on all days.
Chances for light rain quite high...

...while chances for heavy rain relatively low

That's exactly what forecasts for unsettled, on-off weather look like.

Originally Posted by whitemr2

If you would look at weather sites, wich one would you use?

The one you like actually, on this timescale all of them simply print out the output of the numericals available, [in most of the cases data from the US - made GFS model. Which also produced the images i used above.]
For reasonable LM forecasts, let's say mid next week, maybe meteofrance is a good choice (i prefer the governmental-weather services most of the time) For your use at home: I like weerplaza.nl or KNMI when i'm visiting you

If i manage, i'll keep you up to date.

[Aysedasi]

Originally Posted by Truckosaurus

So, should I pack my Big Coat or not?

Pack it, you'll probably need it during the night for warmth......

[PascaLM]

For Saturday 18 : Météo France 19°C, Accuweather 21°C.
It will be 20°C according to my calculation.

Rubberduck, what kind of clouds can be expected ? I prefer several short showers than a longer period of light r*** (it's forbidden to write the whole name in this thread).

[chernaudi]

Probably shouldn't trust the forecasts until a couple of days out, but Wed/Thurs might have rain, but Saturday and Sunday should be dry or mostly dry.

[Simmi]

My basic iPhone forecast shows that it will be a lot nicer for the race itself, but still showers and storms during the week.

Looks to be bucketing down at the track right now according to Hindy. Might be a few puddles in the campsites.

[GT6]

Lets hope it is dry when we get there, nothing worse than putting up tents in the pouring ****

[Starfish Primer]

Originally Posted by GT6

Lets hope it is dry when we get there, nothing worse than putting up tents in the pouring ****

This is my biggest worry, not the race. I´ll arrive on wednesday morning

[batmobile]

To be optimistic we can hope that just now the sky is flowing all it has in its "tanks" to let us enjoy a sunny and pleasant week end. But actually the tanks look clearly full!!!!!!!!

[GT6]

Those floating tanks will be long gone by next week

[Ospi]

Poasible that qual will all be wet. The thought of it ****ing down at midnight just fills me with joy, sigh