Will Schumacher Beat Senna`s Pole Record

[bastinscully]

Today at suzka Michael hit 50 pole positions, Senna had 65 when he left us, does anybody think Michael might beat this by mid 2004 season,as a big Senna fan I hope not.

[Armco Bender]

He should easily pick up another 10-12 next season,hard to see anyone else heading him next year,unless he "lets" RB have a few.

[f1manoz]

I hope not, not that TGF's records actually mean anything, in his team of 1.

[Armco Bender]

Love him or hate him he's the best driver round by far at the moment,now he's got the best car round he's going to cream every one else for the next couple of years.Sit back,relax,enjoy....you can tell your grandkids about him one day.......

[DNQ]

He better not...

[Spritle]

If he beats the "record" or not It really can't be compared to Senna's since Senna had fewer total opportunities.

(Experts, please insert pole to qualifying opportunities ratio here.)

In my book, MS will beat the record for most "career" poles, but Senna will still have the highest "winning" percentage, a more important record.

[Spritle]

If he beats the "record" or not It realy can't be compared to Senna's since Senna had fewer total opportunities.

(Experts please insert pole to qualifying opportunities ratio here.)

In my book, MS will beat the record for most "career" poles, but Senna will still have the highest "winning" percentage, a more important record.

[jetsetter]

I think it is inevitable that Schumacher will break the record with in the next couple of years.

[Kex]

But we can hope....

[R]

It's not inevitable. He's just not going to manage it.

[Maxmil]

Originally posted by Spritle
(Experts, please insert pole to qualifying opportunities ratio here.)

1 Michael Schumacher 5 178 935.00 5.3 63 35.4 49 27.5
2 Alain Prost 4 202 798.50 4.0 51 25.2 33 16.3
3 Ayrton Senna 3 162 614.00 3.8 41 25.3 65 40.1

You have but to ask. Reading from left to right, the numbers are: WDCs Races Points Points/Start Wins Wins/Start Poles Poles /Start

So MS wins the pole 27.5 % of the time and Senna won it 40.1 % of the time. MS may get the absolute record in a couple of years, but I don't think he will ever top Senna's 40% mark.

[Red]

Not that I want to be an anorak here, but Schumacher had 179 presences and 50 poles, not 178 and 49. That would make 27.9% poles per attempts ratio. Since his arrival at Ferrari, his yearly poles/attempt ratio improved from 17.6 to 18.7, then to 30.33, 52.9, 52.9 and 41.2 in 2002. Taking an average of the last 3 years, he had 49% poles per attempt. That's almost half of them. Most probably he would NOT beat Senna's 40.1% career-wise, but the 65 mark is not at all safe, even if he decides that 2004 is his last year.

[J.McClane]

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmm, i personly don't think Shu will beat the record, but then again i think that next year will be his last year as a driver for Ferrari.

I also hope he won't beat the record cos you will get people sayin' Shu is a far better driver than Senna (which is not true) without lookin' at the wider picture.

[Red]

Don't want to spoil your fun but Schumacher has a contract with Ferrari for 2004 to respect... Certainly, very certainly he will NOT drive for another team, the only question is when he decides to call it a day. But no sooner than 2005. Actually my feeling is that he will race 2005 as well.

[J.McClane]

Originally posted by Red
Don't want to spoil your fun but Schumacher has a contract with Ferrari for 2004 to respect...

Yes i am very aware of that, but no one has said that he will be a driver.

He may well stay on at the team and do a Berger or Lauder.

Shu aint gettin' any younger and i think he knows this.

[ZoomZoomZoom]

Originally posted by R
It's not inevitable. He's just not going to manage it.

Based on his career so far, I make it that he'd get 59 total. Based on his Ferrari career he'd get 62. Based on his results from 2000 onwards he'd get 68. This assumes he races to the end of 2004, not beyond.

I think Montoya is the fly in the ointment here - he's just NOT going to cooperate. I Michael races beyond 2004 then I think he definitely WILL get the absolute record.

[Red]

Originally posted by J.McClane
He may well stay on at the team and do a Berger or Lauder.

Yes.... he will stay with Ferrari....after... but the contract for 2004 is to drive a Ferrari. A Formula 1 Ferrari. In races. He aint getting any younger, you're right, but given the facts at hand I'da say that for 5-10 years he's perfectly fit!

[Jordi]

I hope he doesn't...

[ASCII Man]

D*mmit, why won't that senile fool just retire??
There has to be a law against this, like they have against child labor?

[Red]

Huh? Senile? I can't follow you...

[ZoomZoomZoom]

Originally posted by Spritle
If he beats the "record" or not It realy can't be compared to Senna's since Senna had fewer total opportunities.

(Experts please insert pole to qualifying opportunities ratio here.)

In my book, MS will beat the record for most "career" poles, but Senna will still have the highest "winning" percentage, a more important record.

Yeah, but this is true of ANY of the records related to absolute numbers - you can't compare Fangio's results with any of the modern drivers on a fair basis. You can only do this statistically. If you do this then, sorry folks, Fangio, Clark and Ascari all beat Senna on percentage poles (56.86%, 45.21%, 41.18% respectively). Senna is 4th with 40.12%, Montoya () comes next on 29.41% and Schumacher comes in at 6th with 27.93%.

OK, get yer anoraks on!! Further things to think about:

Bill Vukovich is included in the tables below because he raced in the Indy 500 when it was technically part of the championship.

I have included the top 5 positions for the regular championship in each list plus the positions in the top 20 for currently active drivers.

Top 2 on the grid
82.35% Fangio
61.76% Ascari
57.53% Clark
53.70% Senna
47.49% Schumacher
(JPM 8th 38.24%)
(DC 15th 25.53%)

Top 6 on Grid
98.04% Fangio
97.06% Farina
94.41% Schumacher
88.27% Senna
85.71% Fagioli
(JPM 11th 79.41%)
(DC 13th 75.18%)

Wins
47.06% Fangio
40.63% Ascari
[40.00% Vukovich]
35.80% Schumacher
34.72% Clark
27.27% Stewart

Podium
85.71% Fagioli
68.63% Fangio
64.20% Schumacher
60.61% Farina
57.69% Gonzalez
(DC 11th 40.71%)
(JPM 16th 33.33%)

Points finishes
85.71% Fagioli
80.39% Fangio
78.79% Farina
73.86% Schumacher
69.23% Gonzalez
(DC 11th 58.57%)
(RS 20th 49.49%)

Laps Led
[71.6% Vukovich]
54.76% Ascari
59.44% Clark
44.47% Fangio
37.41% Schumacher
36.71% Stewart

Fastest Laps
[60.0% Vukovich]
45.10% Fangio
38.89% Clark
37.50% Ascari
28.79% Moss
28.41% Schumacher
(JPM 9th 18.18%)
(DC 17th 12.86%)

GPs Led
[80.0% Vukovich]
76.47% Fangio
68.75% Ascari
59.72% Clark
57.39% Schumacher
55.26% Gregory
(JPM 10th 45.45%)
(DC 16th 38.57%)

If you rebase the championship points for all drivers then you come out with the following results:

Total Points/points per start
1616.31/6.31 Fangio
1389.71/5.43 Fagioli
1360.00/5.31 Schumacher
1304.00/5.09 Ascari
1101.58/4.30 Farina
(731.43/2.86 DC 15th)

I've worked this out by scoring actual race results on the current points basis. The figures are then used to produce points per start and then the points per start are used to calculate total points based on the highest number of start (Patrese, 256) to give a level playing field.

[ASCII Man]

Why would you wanna follow me? :confused:

[Red]

I don't actually.. :confused: Why did you say something in the first place?

[ZoomZoomZoom]

Originally posted by Armco Bender
He should easily pick up another 10-12 next season,hard to see anyone else heading him next year,unless he "lets" RB have a few.

JPM?

BTW - is your real name McNish by any chance, Armco?

[ZoomZoomZoom]

Originally posted by ®îjñtjûh
D*mmit, why won't that senile fool just retire??
There has to be a law against this, like they have against child labor?

Err, what? :confused: